SARS-CoV-2 testing

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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badger
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing

Post by badger » Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:45 pm

badger wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 7:50 pm
bob sterman wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:41 pm
So the number of new cases reported today was about 17,500 - but the Kings College Zoe symptom study is only estimating 21,903 new cases per day.

Can we really be detecting 80% of infections????
Interesting, because if you spread out today's 17,500 over date of specimen, and then extrapolate (assuming 9 day doubling) you get 21/22k today.

See this thread:
https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1314222917580980224
Oh wait. I see. *Cases*. f.cking hell. I have lost the ability to read today. I'm retiring.

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jimbob
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing

Post by jimbob » Fri Oct 09, 2020 1:26 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:21 pm
bob sterman wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:41 pm
So the number of new cases reported today was about 17,500 - but the Kings College Zoe symptom study is only estimating 21,903 new cases per day.

Can we really be detecting 80% of infections????
No of course we can't.

The King College reports have been disasters, week after week.
Have they?

In July and August, they seemed to be picking up noise in most areas, although their sampling did point out what seemed like a cluster in South Wales and the North East even in August.

But now, they've been looking plausible.

Or have I missed something?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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lpm
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing

Post by lpm » Fri Oct 09, 2020 1:58 pm

For August they claimed their cases halved when official confirmed cases doubled.

Worse than that, they made no attempt to reconcile the conflicting storyline. It's like your accountant telling you your sales are halved while the official figures show they've doubled - you immediately demand an explanation because it's such a critical difference in views.
I'll miss him after he's died in the pandemic

raven
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing

Post by raven » Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:07 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 9:11 pm
raven wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:27 pm
Johnson used the word 'truncated' which does, if he wasn't just using a big word to sound clever yet again, have a specific meaning wrt databases. Or so MrRaven tells me. Something something limits on the size of a datadump something something.
Truncate (or TRUNCATE) is a command in the SQL database language, but it is also a perfectly good computer-related word to describe what happens to any file containing 80,000 records of data when you open them in a system that can't handle that many, and it can be used for a plain text file as well. The use of this word in SQL is derived from its ordinary English meaning. So I think MrRaven is being a little too keen to bash Boris here. (Which is otherwise entirely understandable, of course.)
MrRaven was just consulted on tech stuff; any Boris bashing was me :D

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