Covid-19 the unlockdown

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Woodchopper
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:17 am

PeteB wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:09 am
Herainestold wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:44 am
Probably half the pubs and restos will re open,
How ? The only way I could think would be outside (maybe under gazebos) with >2m between tables - how would you get served food ? go and pick it up from a serving table ?
Might work with the beepers that tell you when to collect it.

Herainestold
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:00 pm

PeteB wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:09 am
Herainestold wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:44 am
Probably half the pubs and restos will re open,
How ? The only way I could think would be outside (maybe under gazebos) with >2m between tables - how would you get served food ? go and pick it up from a serving table ?

Can't see cinemas re-opening

Sporting events - I know they are outside and outside makes a huge difference but I still think you would need social distancing between supporters - Should be ok at Surrey Street (Glossop North End ) can easily get >2m between supporters :-)
I meant eventually. Do you think restaurants will never re open?

I'm not sure about movie theatres. They might be finished.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:14 pm

Background: Isolation of symptomatic cases and tracing of contacts has been used as an early COVID-19 containment measure in many countries, with additional physical distancing measures also introduced as outbreaks have grown. To maintain control of infection while also reducing disruption to populations, there is a need to understand what combination of measures – including novel digital tracing approaches and less intensive physical distancing – may be required to reduce transmission.

Methods: Using a model of individual-level transmission stratified by setting (household, work, school, other) based on BBC Pandemic data from 40,162 UK participants, we simulated the impact of a range of different testing, isolation, tracing and physical distancing scenarios. As well as estimating reduction in effective reproduction number, we estimated, for a given level of COVID-19 incidence, the number of contacts that would be newly quarantined each day under different strategies.

Results: Under optimistic but plausible assumptions, we estimated that combined testing and tracing strategies would reduce transmission more than mass testing or self-isolation alone (50–65% compared to 2–30%). If limits are placed on gatherings outside of home/school/work (e.g. maximum of 4 daily contacts in other settings), then manual contact tracing of acquaintances only could have a similar effect on transmission reduction as detailed contact tracing. In a scenario where there were 10,000 new symptomatic cases per day, we estimated in most contact tracing strategies, 140,000 to 390,000 contacts would be newly quarantined each day.

Conclusions: Consistent with previous modelling studies and country-specific COVID-19 responses to date, our analysis estimates that a high proportion of cases would need to self-isolate and a high proportion of their contacts to be successfully traced to ensure an effective reproduction number that is below one in the absence of other measures. If combined with moderate physical distancing measures, self-isolation and contact tracing would be more likely to achieve control.
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/tracing-bbc.html

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by PeteB » Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:25 am

Herainestold wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:00 pm
PeteB wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:09 am
Herainestold wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:44 am
Probably half the pubs and restos will re open,
How ? The only way I could think would be outside (maybe under gazebos) with >2m between tables - how would you get served food ? go and pick it up from a serving table ?

Can't see cinemas re-opening

Sporting events - I know they are outside and outside makes a huge difference but I still think you would need social distancing between supporters - Should be ok at Surrey Street (Glossop North End ) can easily get >2m between supporters :-)
I meant eventually. Do you think restaurants will never re open?

I'm not sure about movie theatres. They might be finished.
I don't know - after a mass vaccination programme, I guess it would be safe, but when and how likely is that (has there ever been a successful coronavirus vaccine ?) - they will have mostly gone out of business well before then. What would you do before that ?

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Woodchopper
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:29 am

Germany's coronavirus infection rate has edged up from earlier this month and people should stay at home as much as they can despite a lockdown relaxation last week, the head of the Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases said on Tuesday.

The virus reproduction rate, dubbed 'R', is now at 1.0 in Germany, said Lothar Wieler, president of the Robert Koch Institute. That means one person with the virus infects one other on average. Earlier this month, the rate was at 0.7.

Wieler urged Germans to practise rigorous social distancing despite a slight easing of restrictions on public life.
https://news.trust.org/item/20200428090140-gg0dr/

The rate of R is going to get a lot of coverage as states unlockdown.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:01 pm

PeteB wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:25 am
Herainestold wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:00 pm
PeteB wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:09 am


How ? The only way I could think would be outside (maybe under gazebos) with >2m between tables - how would you get served food ? go and pick it up from a serving table ?

Can't see cinemas re-opening

Sporting events - I know they are outside and outside makes a huge difference but I still think you would need social distancing between supporters - Should be ok at Surrey Street (Glossop North End ) can easily get >2m between supporters :-)
I meant eventually. Do you think restaurants will never re open?

I'm not sure about movie theatres. They might be finished.
I don't know - after a mass vaccination programme, I guess it would be safe, but when and how likely is that (has there ever been a successful coronavirus vaccine ?) - they will have mostly gone out of business well before then. What would you do before that ?
Restaurants are open in places like China and South Korea. What are they doing?

I do share your doubts about restaurants.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by headshot » Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:08 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... fe-vilnius
Lithuania’s capital, Vilnius, has announced plans to turn the city into a vast open-air cafe by giving over much of its public space to hard-hit bar and restaurant owners so they can put their tables outdoors and still observe physical distancing rules.

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Sciolus
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Sciolus » Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:27 pm

I hate cafes that put tables all over the pavement, getting in the way of pedestrians, a habit that mushroomed after the smoking ban. More privatisation of public spaces.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:45 pm

Sciolus wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:27 pm
I hate cafes that put tables all over the pavement, getting in the way of pedestrians, a habit that mushroomed after the smoking ban. More privatisation of public spaces.
In places that actually have large enough pavements or squares to do it in, it's really nice to sit out in public rather than being indoors or in a walled garden at the back. There's some evidence that having a view of a lot of fellow humans rather than just walls has psychological benefits too.

For some reason I don't fully understand the UK doesn't quite manage it the way most other countries in Europe do.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by bmforre » Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:15 pm

Sciolus wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:27 pm
I hate cafes that put tables all over the pavement, getting in the way of pedestrians ...
Don't be pedestrian then. Use electrick kikc-bikes and have fun obstacle racing around and between the trying-to-sit passivists.

But don't try that in the US if you don't want to get shot at ...

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:19 pm

JQH wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:45 am
County Championship should be OK too.
And any Birmingham City home game.
Sitting in a sleazy snackbar sucking sickly sausage rolls

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Martin_B » Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:22 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:19 pm
JQH wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:45 am
County Championship should be OK too.
And any Birmingham City home game.
That was the joke I was trying to find a short version of!
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:45 pm

molto tricky

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon May 04, 2020 9:40 pm

Here's what Portugal's bringing into force, after being on strict-ish lockdown (not quite Spanish level) since 18th March:
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by discovolante » Thu May 07, 2020 3:34 pm

Alright, so Scotland is staying locked down for now...let's see what happens.
don't get any big ideas, they're not gonna happen

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon May 11, 2020 10:30 am

Just had an email from my uni in Portugal about measures for resuming face-to-face activities (access to research facilities, not teaching).

The uni health centre will be conducting 400 tests per day, giving results in 24 hours. Access is conditional on a negative result.

Use of masks will be compulsory.

Access to facilities will be divided into non-overlapping shifts to reduce contact between different groups.


All seems like sensible stuff, and it's been put in place with only a week's notice. I'm impressed, given how dysfunctional the uni's admin and bureaucracy normally seems.
When tyranny is law the Revolution is order

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Fri May 15, 2020 4:01 pm

Pool noodle hats
rps20200515_180131.jpg
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molto tricky

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Fri May 15, 2020 7:08 pm

molto tricky

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by discovolante » Sat May 16, 2020 8:34 pm

Sorry for wittering but...my cousin is a teacher, she got pneumonia last year and had to be put in an induced coma, off sick for a long time...no f.cking way should she have to go back to work next month. I hope there will be allowances for this sort of thing anyway but ultimately the gov is going to put it down to employers to decide. 'Let them be heroes [as long as they don't teach black kids]' my arse.
don't get any big ideas, they're not gonna happen

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by headshot » Sat May 16, 2020 9:13 pm

Andy Burnham and other northern leaders are Not Happy:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... e-minister
“In Greater Manchester, we had no real notice of the measures. On the eve of a new working week, the PM was on TV ‘actively encouraging’ a return to work. Even though that would clearly put more cars on roads and people on trams, no one in government thought it important to tell the cities who’d have to cope with that.”

Pointing the finger at Johnson’s chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, the mayor adds: “Far from a planned, safety-led approach, this looked like another exercise in Cummings’s chaos theory.”

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by dyqik » Mon May 18, 2020 2:22 pm

We get our statewide reopening plan this morning. Boston has already announced that it's going to lag at least a week behind the state-wide plan, and presumably Cambridge will do that same, as it's practically the same city.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Mon May 18, 2020 2:42 pm

Lombardy is similarly going to lag behind the rest* of Italy for certain things.
molto tricky

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by FlammableFlower » Fri May 22, 2020 4:40 pm

Had an awkward "street corner" conversation with one of our near neighbours who's a friend of MrsFF (their road backs onto ours). She's getting "fed up" of the lockdown and would "rather just have COVID and get it out of the way"

Except:

1) it's worse than people think. I got flu at Christmas and before that I'd forgotten just how bl..dy nasty it is. This is worse. I'm still reminded of my son's comment after he got flu when he was 8, "I never want to have that again". In fact he'd get quite emotional on hearing someone had had flu.

2) her husband has had cardiac issues and at some time in the not overly distant past. I wouldn't exactly rate his chances if you infected him...

But I think that kind of attitude is getting more prevalent. Locking down isn't easy. It requires quite a lot of changes to your life which aren't always simple or pleasant. It's easy to get lulled into thinking "it's not that bad" to regain more of your freedoms you had previously.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Fri May 22, 2020 7:38 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 4:40 pm
Had an awkward "street corner" conversation with one of our near neighbours who's a friend of MrsFF (their road backs onto ours). She's getting "fed up" of the lockdown and would "rather just have COVID and get it out of the way"

Except:

1) it's worse than people think. I got flu at Christmas and before that I'd forgotten just how bl..dy nasty it is. This is worse. I'm still reminded of my son's comment after he got flu when he was 8, "I never want to have that again". In fact he'd get quite emotional on hearing someone had had flu.

2) her husband has had cardiac issues and at some time in the not overly distant past. I wouldn't exactly rate his chances if you infected him...

But I think that kind of attitude is getting more prevalent. Locking down isn't easy. It requires quite a lot of changes to your life which aren't always simple or pleasant. It's easy to get lulled into thinking "it's not that bad" to regain more of your freedoms you had previously.
Even a "mild" case, sounds awful. I would say it is worth taking extraordinary measures to avoid, even if that means being locked in for several more weeks. I get it that people are frustrated, but so be it.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun May 24, 2020 8:01 am

Sorry that this links to the Daily Mail, but https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/sta ... 4706675714

53% think the lockdown is being eased too fast and 60% would not send their children to school in June. Most agree that cafes/pubs/clothes shops/churches etc. should not be open. Public sector and over-65s report being better off. So there doesn't seem to be massive public opinion behind "get this lockdown ended already" even on a poll reported in the Daily Mail.

Big image behind spoiler

Spoiler:
molto tricky

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