Covid-19 the unlockdown

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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jimbob
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by jimbob » Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:19 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:13 pm
That article might be useful for planning the 3rd wave, but it's bugger all help now.

The approach requires a functioning testing service that isn't overwhelmed by volume and get give results in 24 hours, plus a tracing service that can actually trace people. Realistically the UK and other European countries might be able to achieve it when case numbers get back into the hundreds per day - but it's simply too tough a task when countries are in the thousands per day.

The article does give implications for why random locations in the UK, like Leicester, have big outbreaks - get unlucky with a string of superspreader events and your rate blasts upwards. And yet because every UK region has endemic cases, each location eventually gets unlucky with some superspreading and the country begins to even out. In the UK we went from 5% to 25% to 50% to 75% of local areas having too high a daily case count. Cases haven't risen across the country because of importing from hot spots like Preston or wherever (though neighbours do get impacted) - they rise in a local place internally when the background bubbling away suddenly fizzes up with a couple of superspreadings.
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lpm
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:28 pm

These local MPs and mayors are driving me crazy.

They should be glad they have been put in the High tier. They should be demanding they get put in the Very High tier.

There's clear evidence from across the world that the harder and faster you attack Covid levels, the better it is for your economy. It's the sh.t half-hearted countries that have had the worst economic pain. Do these people want to trash all their local businesses by dragging out lockdown measures for far longer?
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Trinucleus
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Trinucleus » Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:48 pm

I think Boris has missed a political trick given his obsession with control. During austerity, the Government made sure the cuts were delivered locally by Councils and PCTs, so the blame was kept away from Westminster. If he'd supported local public health bodies in imposing restrictions, apart from it being a better decision, he would have avoided some of the flack

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by AMS » Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:44 pm

Trinucleus wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:48 pm
I think Boris has missed a political trick given his obsession with control. During austerity, the Government made sure the cuts were delivered locally by Councils and PCTs, so the blame was kept away from Westminster. If he'd supported local public health bodies in imposing restrictions, apart from it being a better decision, he would have avoided some of the flack
For Johnson, I think it's more of an obsession with total loyalty rather than control. Cummings is the control freak. But agreed both seem to have a massive blind spot about seeking outside opinions.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Millennie Al » Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:41 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:54 am
There's no mystery on why some countries are second waving. It's the stupid, impatient countries full of selfish people.
Considering that the effective policies are better for the economy and save lives, I think the problem is ignorance and stupidity. The most selfish people, if they were clever and informed, should be willing to tolerate short effective measures rather than long periods of costly but ineffective measures. Even people who are personally confident in their own health should realise that the longer this goes on the more their wealth is at risk.
Covid-19 - Don't catch it: don't spread it.

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lpm
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:01 am

Sage proposed a 2 week circuit breaker on 21 September, when confirmed cases were about 3,700 per day.

The government ignored their advice.

Cases are now around 14,000 per day. A couple of doublings.

The UK's journey to a failed state began in 2010, when the government imposed counter-productive austerity measures that held back the economy. It is now obviously a failed state in the Covid arena, Brexit and forming international relationships and treaties. It is still functioning for basic functions like police, military, education and local services. My concern is that the government will take us further down the slope to a failed state. It's hard to imagine the police failing at its basic function, but it has in many parts of the US. It's hard to imagine the bins not being collected but local services for the vulnerable are at the point of collapse. The No Deal and Covid combo is going to create the loss of stable jobs like car manufacture as well as the loss of casual jobs like serving coffee in a caff. And of course the country is breaking up, with Northern Ireland highly likely to leave and the controlling party in Scotland trying to leave.
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lpm
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:49 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:28 pm
These local MPs and mayors are driving me crazy.

They should be glad they have been put in the High tier. They should be demanding they get put in the Very High tier.

There's clear evidence from across the world that the harder and faster you attack Covid levels, the better it is for your economy. It's the sh.t half-hearted countries that have had the worst economic pain. Do these people want to trash all their local businesses by dragging out lockdown measures for far longer?
At least some are getting it.

Essex County Council have requested they be moved from Medium to High.

They're seeing a rise in cases and hope being in High will prevent them being in Very High later.

Every single county in should make the same request because Medium is plainly insufficient to prevent indigenous cases rising sooner or later.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by FlammableFlower » Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:50 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:28 pm
These local MPs and mayors are driving me crazy.

They should be glad they have been put in the High tier. They should be demanding they get put in the Very High tier.

There's clear evidence from across the world that the harder and faster you attack Covid levels, the better it is for your economy. It's the sh.t half-hearted countries that have had the worst economic pain. Do these people want to trash all their local businesses by dragging out lockdown measures for far longer?
The problem is that when they go into these half-hearted measures that drag things out so the patience of the population wears thin and implementing more restrictive measures will be resisted and as such it takes a greater threat to get sufficient compliance.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by JellyandJackson » Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:36 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:49 am
lpm wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:28 pm
These local MPs and mayors are driving me crazy.

They should be glad they have been put in the High tier. They should be demanding they get put in the Very High tier.

There's clear evidence from across the world that the harder and faster you attack Covid levels, the better it is for your economy. It's the sh.t half-hearted countries that have had the worst economic pain. Do these people want to trash all their local businesses by dragging out lockdown measures for far longer?
At least some are getting it.

Essex County Council have requested they be moved from Medium to High.

They're seeing a rise in cases and hope being in High will prevent them being in Very High later.

Every single county in should make the same request because Medium is plainly insufficient to prevent indigenous cases rising sooner or later.
I live in Essex. The view among the local neighbourhood fb page is that the council are requesting an upgraded tier because they get paid more from govt as a consequence.
A thousand strawberry lollies and the princess of Lichtenstein.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Sciolus » Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:31 pm

Well, I defended Burnham above, but it turns out he is indeed being a dangerous, stupid tw.t.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Hunting Dog » Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:46 pm

JellyandJackson wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:36 pm
I live in Essex. The view among the local neighbourhood fb page is that the council are requesting an upgraded tier because they get paid more from govt as a consequence.
Hello neighbour :D

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Grumble
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Grumble » Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:23 pm

Well now, sale of alcohol banned in the House of Commons.
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by JellyandJackson » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:03 pm

Hunting Dog wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:46 pm
JellyandJackson wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:36 pm
I live in Essex. The view among the local neighbourhood fb page is that the council are requesting an upgraded tier because they get paid more from govt as a consequence.
Hello neighbour :D
Hello! Always nice to meet a fellow Essex person. :D
A thousand strawberry lollies and the princess of Lichtenstein.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by tenchboy » Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:13 pm

Blackburn with Darwen has the highest rate of new cases of Covid-19 in England, with 1,176 new cases recorded in the seven days to October 23 - the equivalent of 785.6 cases per 100,000 people.
and yet...

oh look we've found a loop-hole.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:30 am

shpalman wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 3:02 pm
... dancing for "entertainment" in dance halls and discos was briefly allowed during the summer as long as the couple were "a couple" but dancing quickly got shut down completely because cases spiked in holiday resorts.
Oh it turns out the region of Sardinia is now in trouble for having opened the discos over the summer.

I don't think we can blame the exponential rise during October on parties in mid-August though. Even if you can see the post-summer rise in cases clearly in September, it was nothing compared to what kicked off in October.

Well ok maybe the October thing wouldn't have been so bad if infections among students wouldn't have been seeded by the summer cases.
molto tricky

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:40 am

It's all about creating opportunities for the virus. It won't take many of them. But when there are lots of possible pathways it'll be able to spread along enough chains of contact.

New Zealand denied poor little Covid opportunities. It was left with some chances but not the wide range of choices.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:48 am

lpm wrote:
Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:40 am
It's all about creating opportunities for the virus. It won't take many of them. But when there are lots of possible pathways it'll be able to spread along enough chains of contact.

New Zealand denied poor little Covid opportunities. It was left with some chances but not the wide range of choices.
Health authorities in New Zealand are partially shutting down the central city of Auckland on Friday, asking workers in the city to stay home as they try to trace how a student became infected with Covid-19.
molto tricky

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Opti » Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:03 pm

The ex-pat enclave just down the road from us has hit on a great ... well, not so great idea, to try and keep all the bars in the area functioning.
Our latest measures to restrict spread of the virus include:
No movement out of our 35.5km sq. municipality.
18.00 to 06.00 curfew.
Bars and restaurants closed from 18.00
Masks to be worn in all establishments while not actually eating or drinking.

Soo ... the ex-pat bar owners have all decided half-price drinks from 12.00 till 18.00. Of course, all the ex-pats don't wear masks at all when they're in the bar. All pissing away their pensions while crowing about the pandemic being a hoax and a method to control us all.
Of course, the restrictions have come in because out little area went from virtually no infection to almost the highest rate in Andalusia in about a month.

I don't, somehow, think this is the brightest move. More maskless people in bars getting hammered all day.
No Spanish bar owners are doing this.
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shpalman
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Thu Nov 12, 2020 5:34 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:30 am
shpalman wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 3:02 pm
... dancing for "entertainment" in dance halls and discos was briefly allowed during the summer as long as the couple were "a couple" but dancing quickly got shut down completely because cases spiked in holiday resorts.
Oh it turns out the region of Sardinia is now in trouble for having opened the discos over the summer.

I don't think we can blame the exponential rise during October on parties in mid-August though. Even if you can see the post-summer rise in cases clearly in September, it was nothing compared to what kicked off in October.

Well ok maybe the October thing wouldn't have been so bad if infections among students wouldn't have been seeded by the summer cases.
Covid shows up in Strictly
molto tricky

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shpalman
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:33 am

Obviously there are discussions about the return to a tier system next week.

The tier system obviously isn't strong enough or else the lockdown that the UK is currently in wouldn't have been needed.
molto tricky

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:09 pm

So CIs of the estimates of R exclude values ≥1 and the daily case rate is down to an acceptable value? If so, they could try relaxing a particular important restriction and see if the same still holds. Anything else would be really, really stupid.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by JQH » Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:59 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:09 pm
So CIs of the estimates of R exclude values ≥1 and the daily case rate is down to an acceptable value? If so, they could try relaxing a particular important restriction and see if the same still holds. Anything else would be really, really stupid.
This is Boris Johnson we're talking about here.

Just saying.
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shpalman
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:10 pm

molto tricky

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:39 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:10 pm
Whose estimates?

The daily summary says 1-1.1 while James Annan reckons 0.94±0.13 or so
I think the government should probably be using their own estimates rather than someone who, for all his qualities, is in this context basically just "a random bloke on Twitter".

A bit moot, though, as in both of those cases the confidence intervals include values >1 so the numbers could still be going up. It would therefore be stupid to relax restrictions: if anything they should be further tightened to get a more convincing decline.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:09 pm

The April/May 2020 lockdown was approx R=0.7.

April/May 2020 + schools open + universities open + winter would be approx R=1. Give or take a bit. With regional variations. And ups and downs.

Ultimately it's pretty straightforward: we can't afford any unlockdownness except for schools/unis right now. Maybe things are better than we think and that leads to cases declining over a couple of months - if so then maybe we could open gyms or hairdressers in February or something. The precautionary principle implies you keep prudent and take upsides later.

Get cases down to <1,000 a day and maybe we can talk.
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