Covid-19 the unlockdown

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
Post Reply
User avatar
shpalman
Princess POW
Posts: 8241
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond
Contact:

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:49 pm

You can tell if the numbers are going up, by whether the numbers are going up. Over the past week or so, they've started coming down, while the fraction of tests coming back positive is stable at about 6% if not slowly decreasing. What we don't have anymore is the numbers of people tested rather than the numbers of tests, and we know there are issues with that number, but if you decide not to believe the data then anything could be anything.

I do agree, though, that it's not enough that they should start to come down, but that the numbers should actually be low, before anything gets relaxed.

Cancel Christmas, I don't care.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk

User avatar
lpm
Junior Mod
Posts: 5944
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:05 pm

There are other variables.

For example, if school attendence drops from 90% to 80% - with entire schools sending pupils home for a week or a full year group or a class of 30 - then transmission will slow. Currently attendence in secondary schools has dropped to below 70% in some areas. Or if students a hall of residence fences in students for two weeks.

I'd bet the schools crisis is a significant reason why R has dropped a bit.
⭐ Awarded gold star 4 November 2021

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Princess POW
Posts: 10137
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: Portugal

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:35 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:49 pm
You can tell if the numbers are going up, by whether the numbers are going up. Over the past week or so, they've started coming down, while the fraction of tests coming back positive is stable at about 6% if not slowly decreasing. What we don't have anymore is the numbers of people tested rather than the numbers of tests, and we know there are issues with that number, but if you decide not to believe the data then anything could be anything.

I do agree, though, that it's not enough that they should start to come down, but that the numbers should actually be low, before anything gets relaxed.

Cancel Christmas, I don't care.
I think looking at estimates of R is only really necessary if the number of positive tests is going down for a few weeks: if they're going up R is very likely >1; if they're going down, it would still be prudent to check that that's unlikely to be because of stochastic variation.

And yes, I think it's much more important to get the absolute number low, rather than worrying about the rate of change alone. They didn't bother the first time round either, though.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.

User avatar
tenchboy
After Pie
Posts: 1891
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:18 pm
Location: Down amongst the potamogeton.

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by tenchboy » Wed Nov 25, 2020 10:59 am

(By) Relaxing the Restrictions over the Chrismus Holiday = (We are) Throwing Covid a Lifeline.
Best description I've heard so far.
If you want me Steve, just Snapchat me yeah? You know how to Snapchap me doncha Steve? You just...

User avatar
sTeamTraen
After Pie
Posts: 2551
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:24 pm
Location: Palma de Mallorca, Spain

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Thu Nov 26, 2020 12:36 pm

Much excitement this lunchtime at the news that Manchester will unlock into Tier 3 and Liverpool into Tier 2 ("to punish Andy Burnham and reward Joe Anderson", whatever). But I can't help feeling that this tweet from Liverpool is a bit tone-deaf. It's not like they've just been awarded the Olympics.

Untitled.png
Untitled.png (445.93 KiB) Viewed 1961 times
Something something hammer something something nail

User avatar
Tessa K
Light of Blast
Posts: 4707
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:07 pm
Location: Closer than you'd like

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Tessa K » Thu Nov 26, 2020 1:00 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:49 pm
Cancel Christmas, I don't care.
I'm not a fan of Christmas either and five days seems like a lot even being generous to people who want to see family.

No one in government has even mentioned New Year's Eve yet. While there won't be any big public celebrations, there is no way to stop house parties with associated hugging, snogging and general exchange of bodily fluids at midnight.

Image

OneOffDave
Clardic Fug
Posts: 211
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:26 am

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by OneOffDave » Thu Nov 26, 2020 3:52 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if a large number of people still turn up in central London to mark the New Year. It will be interesting as all the transport arrangements that are usually in place won't be. Getting in will be ok but getting home might be 'fun'

User avatar
headshot
Dorkwood
Posts: 1414
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:40 am

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by headshot » Thu Nov 26, 2020 5:04 pm

OneOffDave wrote:
Thu Nov 26, 2020 3:52 pm
I wouldn't be surprised if a large number of people still turn up in central London to mark the New Year. It will be interesting as all the transport arrangements that are usually in place won't be. Getting in will be ok but getting home might be 'fun'
Reminds me of the time my brother went clubbing in central Birmingham and it snowed a foot whilst he was in there.

Hundreds of people ended up trudging through the snow along the Aston Expressway at 3am.

User avatar
shpalman
Princess POW
Posts: 8241
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond
Contact:

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Thu Nov 26, 2020 5:10 pm

headshot wrote:
Thu Nov 26, 2020 5:04 pm
OneOffDave wrote:
Thu Nov 26, 2020 3:52 pm
I wouldn't be surprised if a large number of people still turn up in central London to mark the New Year. It will be interesting as all the transport arrangements that are usually in place won't be. Getting in will be ok but getting home might be 'fun'
Reminds me of the time my brother went clubbing in central Birmingham and it snowed a foot whilst he was in there.
snow can show up out of nowhere around here too
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk

User avatar
Tessa K
Light of Blast
Posts: 4707
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:07 pm
Location: Closer than you'd like

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Tessa K » Fri Nov 27, 2020 9:58 am

Tiers of a clown.

User avatar
jimbob
Light of Blast
Posts: 5276
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by jimbob » Sat Nov 28, 2020 2:57 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:49 pm
You can tell if the numbers are going up, by whether the numbers are going up. Over the past week or so, they've started coming down, while the fraction of tests coming back positive is stable at about 6% if not slowly decreasing. What we don't have anymore is the numbers of people tested rather than the numbers of tests, and we know there are issues with that number, but if you decide not to believe the data then anything could be anything.

I do agree, though, that it's not enough that they should start to come down, but that the numbers should actually be low, before anything gets relaxed.

Cancel Christmas, I don't care.
Exactly - R seems to fall between "not technical enough to be that useful for epidemiology as superspreading is so important" and "too technical for easy analysis or estimation"
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

Post Reply