Scrutable

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:13 pm

AMS wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:58 pm

Testing needs to be anyone with symptoms, obviously, but also random sampling to spot emerging hotspots. E.g. stand in the doorways of train stations and supermarkets and swab every 20th person.

That's difficult, though, unless you use some degree of coercion. The people who consent will probably be quite different from the people who don't. AFAIK the current testing procedure is quite unpleasant (blood draw or nasal swab that goes some way in) and can't really be done easily in a crowded public place. When we've got a litmus paper that you can just lick, then sure.

Taking a sample with a swab test risks spreading droplets containing the virus. The testing area has to be disinfected after every swab is taken. So it would be impractical to randomly test people in stations etc (which is why drive through testing is popular, as you don't need to disinfect someone's private car).

Well, this is an odd story: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ay-comment

The government has in effect warned Britons against planning a summer holiday this year, whether in the UK or abroad, prompting an angry reaction from the travel industry, which is warning that many firms in the sector could collapse.

The response from Abta, the UK’s trade association for holiday operators and travel agents, came after Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, cast doubt on a sufficiently rapid lifting of social distancing or travel restrictions imposed due to Covid-19.

Are ABTA idiots? What are they talking about here:

Abta, which has warned of a mass collapse of travel companies due to the coronavirus pandemic, condemned Shapps’ advice.

“It was a thoughtless comment and not based on any facts about what we know today about the future of the pandemic, but it shows complete disregard for the UK travel industry, the hundreds of thousands of people it employs and the struggle it is facing in this current crisis,” it said in a statement.

“It would be better if the government focused on taking the necessary steps to support the sector rather than undermining confidence in it.”

We know that this is going to last for month, maybe years. We know that close contact and travel causes the virus to spread rapidly. What do they think is going to happen in July/Aug? That people will suddenly forget that they will be spreading a deadly disease and will all book holidays in Magaluf?

Sounds like ABTA are delusional. Frankly I can't see lockdown being lifted much, if at all, before the autumn. We had already decided against booking a holiday this year and we're certainly not the only ones.

JQH wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:47 pm

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 17, 2020 6:15 pm

I thought about going to China, it seemed the only place that might be safe, but then they stopped issuing visas.

If anyone else had posted this I would assume they were joking. Given your previously expressed enthusiasm for the PRC regime, I'm somewhat less certain.

Also South Korea and Taiwan might be safer bets.

New Zealand followed by Australia are better bets.

Guardian summary of European unloskdowns: https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader ... dc8NiweDd/

Interesting watching a rather exasperated James Annan trying to engage with epidemiologists, statisticians who probably can't distinguish him from a crank. He did start off more polite !

https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1 ... 6706527233

https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1 ... 0451846145

https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1 ... 5752698880

Looks like the US is going to fit nicely between this Unlockdown thread and the Lockdown lab thread with different states all trying to do different things and governors and mayors wanting different things...

The US is f.cked.

They have to unlockdown because people simply starve otherwise. There's no safety net. The pictures of cars queuing for food banks are amazing.

Their lockdown is much more expensive than Europe's in terms of lives lost to other things, people being bankrupted, jobs lost for ever. Hate to say it, but Trump is partly right - it has to be eased and let Covid run more freely, because it's a 3rd world country in so many aspects.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:41 pm

WHY Can't the WORLD do what CHINA did?

Lucifer, you might be interested in watching this

Is it because the WORLD spends TEN MINUTES to say there's going to be a LIVE STREAM?

To be completely fair, China could have an awful regime and an effective coronavirus strategy, and it really ought to be possible to discuss the latter without its being considered an endorsement of the former.

I think we all get that the Chinese regime sucks in a lot of ways, but shall we keep the covid threads as on-topics as possible?

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:45 pm

To be completely fair, China could have an awful regime and an effective coronavirus strategy, and it really ought to be possible to discuss the latter without its being considered an endorsement of the former.

I think we all get that the Chinese regime sucks in a lot of ways, but shall we keep the covid threads as on-topics as possible?

As I have pointed out before, as far as the unlockdown is concerned, China has introdued mandatory quarantines of anybody entering the country as well as temporarily banning foreigners, neither allowing one with visas to enter or issuing new visas. The use of tracking apps on phones, to show where you have been and whether you have been tested. Allowing entry to restaurants and other public places only to those who have "green code"
on their phones, which is a negative test, no travel to affected areas, or contact with affected persons.

We will have to go to something similar.

FlammableFlower wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:34 pm

Looks like the US is going to fit nicely between this Unlockdown thread and the Lockdown lab thread with different states all trying to do different things and governors and mayors wanting different things...

Unless freedom of movement between states is restricted, that's just a recipe for disaster. All of the expenses of lockdown states will be wasted by non-lockdown states undermining the lockdowns by spreading more disease in from outside.

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:05 am

The discussion on China can now be found here: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1172&p=28702#p28702

And I've moved some more posts over there as well.

Lockdown fatigue, symptom number 94: I'm getting really pissed off that I have to sit chained to my desk working in my spare room, while it seems everyone else is, if not exactly getting out and about, then at least enjoying the nice weather in their gardens, sunbathing, pottering around, walking the dog and so on; and I'm paying for most of their salaries to boot.

And the weather is being persistently shitter at the weekends.

Sciolus wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:51 pm

Lockdown fatigue, symptom number 94: I'm getting really pissed off that I have to sit chained to my desk working in my spare room, while it seems everyone else is, if not exactly getting out and about, then at least enjoying the nice weather in their gardens, sunbathing, pottering around, walking the dog and so on; and I'm paying for most of their salaries to boot.

Thank you for 'doing your bit' in this time of need. You only get to see the happier, more carefree people out and about - it is not a random sample of the population: there are many less happy and in more difficult situations closeted up in their homes. But yes, it sucks. I hope you get a well earned and enjoyable break.

I'm being a bit tongue in cheek: I'm lucky to live in a leafy suburb rather than a shoebox in London, and able to work at home with no risk of getting infected. This is definitely a time for counting one's blessings.

But also a bit serious: I'm finding it increasingly hard to stay focused and motivated on work when all the talk is what people are doing with their sudden huge amounts of spare time, and I look up from my monitor to see people sunbathing all afternoon.

This may have turned into a whine, but was intended as an example of pressure to end the lockdown: I'll be much happier once all the slacker bastards have returned to their miserable lives of drudgery and toil and it's not just me.

Sciolus wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:05 am

But also a bit serious: I'm finding it increasingly hard to stay focused and motivated on work when all the talk is what people are doing with their sudden huge amounts of spare time, and I look up from my monitor to see people sunbathing all afternoon.

Tell me about it. I'm trying to combine working from home and homeschooling the kids. The only way I can keep up is to work evenings, weekends and through the Easter holiday. I've got zero time to myself.

[Just a gripe, and I'm happy to do it in order to protect the rest of society, and realize that unemployment would be far worse.]

I'm absolutely hopeless at concentrating and focusing at work at the moment. There's little structure to it so I get easily sidetracked. Also my job is sort of morphing from lawyer to counsellor and social worker as more of my clients find themselves without food, in mental health crises etc, and little means of contacting anyone for support, so there are a few people I'm contacting on a regular basis just to check up on them and support where I can, even if nothing much is happening on their case. I mean that was always kind of part of my job anyway, but it's become more of a 'thing'.

Having said that though, once I log off I'm more or less free to do what I like, so nothing to grumble about really - although I am still studying for exams in November which is a bit time consuming. I am sort of missing a lot of the good weather though (she says sitting indoors on a Saturday - I'm just having a brief study break honest!). But as I mentioned before, my motivation to do anything other than sit on the sofa and read or watch TV is has diminished quite a bit over the last few days.

A lot of people seem to imagine that at some point in the unlockdown, bars and restaurants will re-open and everyone will go out to them.

I can't see that. We know that pubs have been closing all over the UK for many years because of (among other things) the effects of Netflix and Deliveroo. A 10% drop in turnover can be the difference between solvency and closing. (Arguably restaurants are losing less money when closed than they would if running at half capacity.)

Here's an article from Spain about how hotels and restaurants think they can reopen. I don't fancy a weekend at a high-end place in Madrid under the conditions described. (Example: When you check in, they look at your passport, swipe your credit card, and send you to a room for an invasive test procedure.)

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:29 pm

A lot of people seem to imagine that at some point in the unlockdown, bars and restaurants will re-open and everyone will go out to them.

I think that very much depends on how the transition occurs. If we have a sudden complete switch, people will probably go back to normal fairly quickly. They will associate all the restrictions with one another, so the obvious ending of some helps reinforce the feeling that the others have also ended. However, if there is a gradual relaxation, people will become so used to the restrictions that they will partly keep to some of them for quite some time.

Probably half the pubs and restos will re open, the other half will go under.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:44 am

Probably half the pubs and restos will re open,

How ? The only way I could think would be outside (maybe under gazebos) with >2m between tables - how would you get served food ? go and pick it up from a serving table ?

Can't see cinemas re-opening

Sporting events - I know they are outside and outside makes a huge difference but I still think you would need social distancing between supporters - Should be ok at Surrey Street (Glossop North End ) can easily get >2m between supporters

PeteB wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:09 am

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:44 am

Probably half the pubs and restos will re open,

How ? The only way I could think would be outside (maybe under gazebos) with >2m between tables - how would you get served food ? go and pick it up from a serving table ?

Can't see cinemas re-opening

Sporting events - I know they are outside and outside makes a huge difference but I still think you would need social distancing between supporters - Should be ok at Surrey Street (Glossop North End ) can easily get >2m between supporters

County Championship should be OK too.