Covid-19 the unlockdown

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Gfamily
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Gfamily » Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:20 pm

We had planned to go out to France for a couple of months as from late July (work was happy for me to spend some time working 2 days a week over that period); and it's now looking more possible if we can take enough grub with us to be able to self-isolate once we got to our place.

A neighbour out there will manage essentials purchases like milk and wine.

Depends on the ferry restarting though.

The only guilt trip is that the two asylum seekers currently staying in our place will have to relocate for a while. We're hoping that the French unlockdown will mean they'll be able to continue their application for refugee status and be able to look for work and a place nearer the local town.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:12 pm

For the first time since the beginning of March, Mrs BoaF and I sat outside at a little bar and had a couple of beers in the sun. It's the first time I've felt 'normal' since the pandemic was really kicking off in Europe.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Gentleman Jim » Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:10 pm

I have noticed one or two pubs have opened here - not supposed to yet, are they?
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:12 pm

Thought I'd show how things have gone here in the first month of unlockdown. Top graph is cumulative number of cases (yellow are suspected, blue confirmed). Bottom graph is daily number of new cases recorded.
Screenshot_2020-06-15_15-16-41.png
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First cases in Portugal were recorded on 2nd March. By the 18th, when lockdown began, there were 5000 (suspected).

Before 18th of March there had been local lockdown in the north, around the city of Porto and its surroundings, where the virus first took hold. The declaration of national emergency made it nationwide, and the lockdown was pretty strict: all non-essential businesses closed, masks compulsory everywhere indoors in public, social distancing enforced in queues, alterations to public transport, restrictions on travel over bank holiday weekends, etc.

Phase 1 of unlockdown meant small shops could open, limited to 5 customers/100m2, masks still compulsory. The second phase has included allowing cafés and larger shops to open, but masks are still compulsory indoors, there are distancing rules between tables, lots of places have switched to extra outside seating, and so on.

And even then, we're ticking along at 250-350 new cases a day. The number of people in hospital has been stable at about 420, of which about 70 are in intensive care. This is well within the capacity of the dedicated frontline covid hospitals, so the curve is sufficiently flattened for the health service to cope:
Screenshot_2020-06-15_16-07-17.png
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Most cases are in the Lisbon metropolis, though there have been outbreaks in the countryside suspiciously close to Lisboetas' favourite holiday destinations.

I think it's been a pretty decent response. I've never seen anything in Portugal be as quickly or effectively organised as the government response to this (and similarly my university put measures in place super quick, when they normally drag their heels and lose paperwork and stuff), and from what I've seen everyone's taken it pretty seriously - I've never seen anyone complain about having to wait longer in line or use a mask, for instance. Not everyone's received their furlough money yet, but evictions have been banned, and everyone waiting for immigration status was automatically approved to they could access support and healthcare. Etc.

And now after 3 months things are almost largely back to normal. I think the biggest risk of a second wave will be if the Algarve gets a lot of visitors from up north bringing cases with them, especially when people who work in Lisbon go to visit their older relatives. But we'll see how it goes.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:28 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:12 pm
... we're ticking along at 250-350 new cases a day. The number of people in hospital has been stable at about 420, of which about 70 are in intensive care. This is well within the capacity of the dedicated frontline covid hospitals, so the curve is sufficiently flattened for the health service to cope...
In Lombardy, which has a similar population of about 10 million, we're also getting about 200 new cases a day with 94 in intensive care as of just now but over 2000 in hospital in total. The peak was over 13000 in hospital with 1300 in intensive care, though. It's been noted that a greater proportion of positives are in isolation at home now than back when things were coming up, which suggests to me that testing capacity has increased to cover mild symptomatic cases and screening of health workers rather than the virus getting weaker.

I do wonder though if the past two weeks of data in Lombardy might suggest a trend which is ever so slightly upwards by 3-4 cases per day.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:29 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:28 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:12 pm
... we're ticking along at 250-350 new cases a day. The number of people in hospital has been stable at about 420, of which about 70 are in intensive care. This is well within the capacity of the dedicated frontline covid hospitals, so the curve is sufficiently flattened for the health service to cope...
In Lombardy, which has a similar population of about 10 million, we're also getting about 200 new cases a day with 94 in intensive care as of just now but over 2000 in hospital in total. The peak was over 13000 in hospital with 1300 in intensive care, though. It's been noted that a greater proportion of positives are in isolation at home now than back when things were coming up, which suggests to me that testing capacity has increased to cover mild symptomatic cases and screening of health workers rather than the virus getting weaker.

I do wonder though if the past two weeks of data in Lombardy might suggest a trend which is ever so slightly upwards by 3-4 cases per day.
... Some new positives are apparently from swabs carried out on people who tested positive for antibodies.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:04 pm

Millennie Al wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:16 am
I have read in the media several very bad suggestions on how to get out of lockdown. They seem to be based on a failure to understand exponential growth. The correct method should be something like this:

All new cases are subject to contact tracing and quarantine. When there is a sufficient period (e.g. a week) with no new surprising cases then lockdown ends. A surprising case is a case in someone who is not quarantined as a result of the contact tracing. The contact tracing and quarantine scenario continues until a treatment is found which renders Covid-19 reasonably harmless or the risk of a large outbreak is very small due to herd immunity (whether by vaccine or otherwise). Obviously all of this can only start when the resources are sufficient to handle the necessary volume of contact tracing and quarantine. Anybody arriving from abroad is presumed infected unless they have spent all of the last 14 days (or as approriate) in other countries which have a similar scheme in operation.

A very stupid idea would be to relax lockdown merely because the number of cases or deaths had fallen because that's just getting us back to the same situation we were in which got us into this mess in the first place. I assume this idea is the explanation for models which predict a second wave after lockdown is lifted. We were already stupid not to have paid attention to how places like China, South Korea, Italy etc. handled the pandemic. To let the same thing happen again would be quite incredibly stupid.
The opening post in this thread from 9 April holds up very well, doesn't it?

Various countries like South Korea are getting "unsurprising cases" - people already traced to an existing case get tested and are found to be infected. People are quarantined, the tracing carries on down the chains, more contacts get quarantined. There are occasional "surprising cases" where the tracing hadn't found the link. The outbreak isn't yet under control in South Korea because there are too many "surprising cases" - so they continue with other measures (distancing, partial lockdowns (e,g, nightclubs), masks, screens). The bulk of the weight is being carried by a huge test and trace program, but they still need some of the burden to be carried by abnormal measures.

Germany has had sophisticated test & trace program, well established with a few weeks getting up to speed and then 6 weeks of full operations. They have 400 decentralised tea, local testing centres, automated referrals to testing centres, 100% testing of anyone with symptoms or contacts. When the UK stopped testing on 12 March, Germanyms accelerated. Cases were detected very early, with immediate tracing so that contacts quarantined early. Nobody was left at home for a week with symptoms but no test, slowly getting worse until they need hospital and a belated test - if you felt ill, you'd be tested and in the healthcare system within the day. Now, not only do you get tested within hours, if positive your contacts are traced and show up at a testing centre the next day. The only missing piece in Germany is an app - still not ready - yet it didn't seem to matter.

Germany's still getting "surprising cases". There's still a partial lockdown (varying by region) and social distancing, but shops and bars are reopening. Industry never really stopped and their economic hit was much gentler than the UK's.

I'd love to know how many of the UK's cases could be deemed "unsurprising" - a new case where the person had already been traced to an infected family member or work colleague or other source. What percentage of new cases had already entered isolation before they felt symptoms and got tested? In South Korea, it's high. In the UK presumably it's still very low. Is the UK seeing chains of infections ahead of time, or are we mostly seeing unconnected new cases?
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Gfamily » Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:11 pm

This might be useful if you can't wear a face mask or if you know someone else who can't
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by FairySmall » Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:31 pm

I know public transport is a different kettle of fish but from my limited experience of the world outside my house, no one seems to care about masks or social distancing or anything. I went to the supermarket and they had all kinds of interventions to help maintain appropriate distancing. But people were blithely ignoring them all. I only saw three other people with masks on. I glared at everyone who got remotely close but most were completely oblivious.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:17 am

Finally there's some official stats on UK test & trace.

7 days to 10 June

Actual new infections: unknown. 20,000 to 40,000. ONS survey estimated 31,600 infections per week in 12 June report.

Official tested & confirmed cases: 11,155 (per World in Data)

Referred to tracing services: 5,949 (53% of cases, approx 20% of total new infections)

Reached & provided contacts: 4,366 (39% of cases, approx 15% of total new infections)

Contacts identified: 44,895 (1o per person)

Time to identify contacts: 78% within 24 hours

Contacts reached and advised to self-isolate: 40,690 (91%)

Time to reach contacts: 86% within 24 hours



https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... -june-2020
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:48 am

So, out of 200 000 to 400 000 potential contacts (at 10 per person) they've contacted 44 895. Which is a little more than 10% of the upper infection estimate.

It'll help but won't be a game changer.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by PeteB » Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:15 pm

Yes - exactly, might reduce R by 0.1 but definitely not a game changer, compare and contrast with New Zealand, when they were infected by 2 UK visitors and they tracked and locked down several hundred people - you can only do that if you have next to no cases

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:45 pm

We're knocking R back with various fragments of policy:

- various levels of self-isolation
- face coverings
- proper PPE in NHS
- social distancing
- no pubs, clubs and indoor restaurants
- no crowds at football etc
- working from home
- hand washing
- test & quarantine
- trace, contact and isolate
- low travel to and fro across the country
- almost no international flights
- the app (Isle of Wight only)

Anyone prepared to guess what sort of reduction each bit does? If it starts at R=3, are these enough to get to R=1?
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by PeteB » Fri Jun 19, 2020 3:27 pm

Don't forget schools - wonder if children would be asymptomatic spreaders ?

I sort of think it is hovering around 1 at the minute, I wonder if it has burnt out in some of the really high risk settings (care homes ?)

I think sometimes it just takes a spark it a setting that is inflammable e.g. here

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by mediocrity511 » Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:53 pm

PeteB wrote:
Fri Jun 19, 2020 3:27 pm
Don't forget schools - wonder if children would be asymptomatic spreaders ?

I sort of think it is hovering around 1 at the minute, I wonder if it has burnt out in some of the really high risk settings (care homes ?)

I think sometimes it just takes a spark it a setting that is inflammable e.g. here
This week there were the same number of outbreaks in schools that there were in hospitals. There is evidence that children spread it less, bit it does seem like school transmission is increasing as pupil numbers do.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by EllyCat » Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:22 pm

PeteB wrote:
Fri Jun 19, 2020 3:27 pm
Don't forget schools - wonder if children would be asymptomatic spreaders ?

I sort of think it is hovering around 1 at the minute, I wonder if it has burnt out in some of the really high risk settings (care homes ?)

I think sometimes it just takes a spark it a setting that is inflammable e.g. here
Weirdly, I have family in both “outbreak” areas. Cleckheaton outbreak is being associated with a meat-packing factory.

The Leicester outbreak might just be an uptick due to the initial really bad testing availability meaning lots of cases were missed (and anecdotally, that fits)...but it’s in a deprived area of the city which is home to several somewhat insular BAME communities, and the uptick started two weeks after Eid...so it could plausibly be very bad news.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:30 am

It almost looks like we have to go back to total lock down. Essential workers only, evertbody stay inside, even Dominic Cummings. When you go the grocery, face mask even if you are driving your car.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Fishnut » Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:35 pm

The government's 2m distancing rule is under review and Rishi Sunak is apparently hinting that the distance ruling is going to be reduced. The Guardian reports,
In a visit to shops in North Yorkshire, [Sunak] told reporters:

The outcome of that review will be announced this week, obviously that’s something that will make an enormous difference, I think, to many businesses who are keen to see a change.

Obviously, we need to go through that review, but I’m very understanding of the calls for action on that, particularly for our hospitality industry, for our pubs, for our restaurants. [They] are keen to see if there’s some change that can be made there.
I am pissed off at this for two main reasons. The first is, is there anyone who doesn't think this 'review' is going to say that it's ok to reduce the distance? After all this hyping that we need to reduce the social distancing rules to "kick start the economy" is the report really going to say "no, we need to leave things at 2m"?

The second reason is that this is being done through hints and 'leaks' and all that stupid f.cking sh.t that makes people so frustrated with politics. This isn't political intrigue, this isn't back-room deals, this is - or at least is should be - about trying to work out how to keep people safe during a global pandemic. This is not how governments should be communicating right now (it's not how they should be communicating at any time but that's a rant for another day). We need clear easy-to-follow advice and instead we're at a place where it seems no-one, especially those in charge, know what we should be doing right now.

People are literally dying and Sunak is more interested in getting people packed into restaurants again than he is at trying to keep people alive.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Vertigowooyay » Sat Jun 20, 2020 4:55 pm

Easing the lockdown really working out well for Florida I see.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Trinucleus » Sat Jun 20, 2020 6:18 pm

Has Dom got shares in sticker manufacturers? Just when everyone's got 2m stickers plastered everywhere, they change it to 1m

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Turdly » Sun Jun 21, 2020 1:49 pm

Trinucleus wrote:
Sat Jun 20, 2020 6:18 pm
Has Dom got shares in sticker manufacturers? Just when everyone's got 2m stickers plastered everywhere, they change it to 1m
It's ok, now we are out of the EU we can redefine a metre as 50 cm and reuse the stickers.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Jun 21, 2020 10:08 pm

Germany’s coronavirus reproduction rate jumped to 2.88 on Sunday, up from 1.79 a day earlier, health authorities said, a rate showing infections are rising above the level needed to contain the disease over the longer term.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN23S0PJ

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Jun 21, 2020 10:46 pm

Once again, a slaughterhouse is responsible for a lot of cases.

Obviously food production is important, but the meat industry seems to be really struggling to maintain hygienic conditions - is there not perhaps an argument for additional restrictions on risky practices?
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by EllyCat » Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:48 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Jun 21, 2020 10:46 pm
Once again, a slaughterhouse is responsible for a lot of cases.

Obviously food production is important, but the meat industry seems to be really struggling to maintain hygienic conditions - is there not perhaps an argument for additional restrictions on risky practices?
If the virus is airborne, it may not be a failure of hygiene practices as much as “environment designed to stop (edible) biological matter from deteriorating stops (viral) biological matter from deteriorating”. Slaughterhouses/meat processing plants seem to be the Western equivalent of wet markets in terms of transmission. But I don’t know what the implications for farming supply and demand would be of a blanket shut-down, and I imagine that’s one industry we really don’t want to cripple pre-Brexit.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Martin Y » Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:13 am

That seems plausible as the virus appears to be highly persistent at refrigerator temperatures.

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