Scrutable

And, to add to that, consider other interventions as well. How much can infection rates be reduced by tracing contacts of those who test positive and isolating them too? By universal public mask wearing, etc?

Given how well South Korea's done, that needs to be a factor too

lpm wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:14 am

Martin_B wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:05 am

That's probably not for another 3-4 weeks, given the quoted recovery period and level of bed/medical staff usage.

3-4 weeks is insanely fast, even for countries ahead of the UK and US. That's early May. Surely the starting assumption is lifting 30 June and then flexing earlier or later depending on circumstances? For example, allowing limited cross-household mixing in early June to permit families to get together again, or reopening schools early, or reopening non-essential shops - all against a backdrop of continued lockdown.

Bits of the US haven't even locked down yet, so the clock hasn't even started on when lockdowns can end anywhere in the US.

Hawaii is probably in the best situation here - it can isolate each island just by restricting interisland flights, and then ease restriction within each island.

Here in Ireland they lockdown started (I think) a couple of weeks ago, whereby people over 70 are completely banned from even stepping outside their home. A pity because my father and I had enjoyed brief neighbourhood strolls every couple of days. My father's house does have a very small patio but it gets no sun and with the Irish weather too there's limited opportunity to experience the outdoors. And now they're extending the lockdown to the 5th of May.

It's probably going to continue until the beginning of May here too. Except maybe libraries and stationers will open.

Spain to allow workers back to factories and construction sites: https://www.gbc.gi/news/spain-eases-res ... al-workers

The UK won't need to unlock that - carrying on anyway

shpalman wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:08 pm

It's probably going to continue until the beginning of May here too. Except maybe libraries and stationers will open.

Stationers?

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:36 pm

shpalman wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:08 pm

It's probably going to continue until the beginning of May here too. Except maybe libraries and stationers will open.

Stationers?

Shops that sell pens and paper and things, but that's not important right now.

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:42 pm

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:36 pm

shpalman wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:08 pm

It's probably going to continue until the beginning of May here too. Except maybe libraries and stationers will open.

Stationers?

Shops that sell pens and paper and things, but that's not important right now.

I understand. But why will they have priority in opening?

I quit the wrong thread to quit sniffing glue

I'm wondering if it's specifically to do with home/remote schooling and keeping the kids occupied generally. Some supermarkets seem to have cordoned off the coloured pencils (although this doesn't seem to have been the case in the one I go to).

shpalman wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:16 pm

I'm wondering if it's specifically to do with home/remote schooling and keeping the kids occupied generally. Some supermarkets seem to have cordoned off the coloured pencils (although this doesn't seem to have been the case in the one I go to).

I mean, if everyone's working from home when they don't normally, a lot of people might be running out of paper and pens and stuff that are normally provided ad libitum at work?

Do stationers in Italy also sell lottery tickets and tobacco? Because that's probably a decent chunk of state income too.

It could be partly a risk-based judgement. Stationery shops are unlikely to be the hotbeds of viral exchange that cinemas and nightclubs might.

AMS wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:21 pm

It could be partly a risk-based judgement. Stationery shops are unlikely to be the hotbeds of viral exchange that cinemas and nightclubs might.

Cinemas and nightclubs I can understand.

I really wonder if there is a lot of transmission outside. One virus particle can infect. It can last in air for over 3 hours.
Outside, breezes and wind can create a plume of viruses , for many metres.

China has the best results and they insisted on locking people right inside their dwellings. Outside air is dangerous.

Stationery shops are likely fairly safe.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:51 pm

AMS wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:21 pm

It could be partly a risk-based judgement. Stationery shops are unlikely to be the hotbeds of viral exchange that cinemas and nightclubs might.

Cinemas and nightclubs I can understand.

I really wonder if there is a lot of transmission outside. One virus particle can infect. It can last in air for over 3 hours.
Outside, breezes and wind can create a plume of viruses , for many metres.

China has the best results and they insisted on locking people right inside their dwellings. Outside air is dangerous.

Stationery shops are likely fairly safe.

China has admitted to thousands of deaths, and there's almost certainly many more than they have admitted to.

South Korea has somewhere in the region of 200. South Korea's had it plenty long enough to have hit catastrophic levels, and yet managed to get their infection rate into decline. What's more, they did it without having to disappear any critics, or intimidate any doctor whistleblowers.

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:53 pm

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:51 pm

AMS wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:21 pm

It could be partly a risk-based judgement. Stationery shops are unlikely to be the hotbeds of viral exchange that cinemas and nightclubs might.

Cinemas and nightclubs I can understand.

I really wonder if there is a lot of transmission outside. One virus particle can infect. It can last in air for over 3 hours.
Outside, breezes and wind can create a plume of viruses , for many metres.

China has the best results and they insisted on locking people right inside their dwellings. Outside air is dangerous.

Stationery shops are likely fairly safe.

China has admitted to thousands of deaths, and there's almost certainly many more than they have admitted to.

South Korea has somewhere in the region of 200. South Korea's had it plenty long enough to have hit catastrophic levels, and yet managed to get their infection rate into decline. What's more, they did it without having to disappear any critics, or intimidate any doctor whistleblowers.

The virus is resurging in South Korea, so it doesn't look as rosy as it did last week.

It's still orders of magnitude better than your beloved fascist China, with the added bonus of not causing the problem, nor covering it up.

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:27 pm

It's still orders of magnitude better than your beloved fascist China, with the added bonus of not causing the problem, nor covering it up.

My next door neighbours appear to think they’re immune, or that the lockdown has ended as they have guests visiting.

Still, every cloud...

shpalman wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:08 pm

It's probably going to continue until the beginning of May here too. Except maybe libraries and stationers will open.

Sorry, false cognate, bookshops not libraries.

San Marco in Lamis, province of Foggia, Puglia: a 74-year-old man spent the first two weeks of February with his daughter in Cremona (30 km from Codogno) and then came back to San Marco where he started to develop symptoms.
He died on the 27th of February.
On the 3rd of March the funeral went ahead with about 200 people in attendance... including people from Cremona, apparently...
This put 87 people in quarantine with at least 4 known positives for the virus.

So I know let's have 100-200 people stand outside a church for an hour because it makes them feel better.

The mayor (who knew what was going to happen because he'd been invited) is very sorry that he didn't have the courage to go and tell don Matteo to shut it down.

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:44 pm

The way to do this is to list every normal activity we used to do in The Before.

Then give each 3 scores:
... Get a panel of experts to do the estimates.

How does the panel make a decision? And if it is on evidence, why not look at the evidence directly? This seems to be a very high-risk gamble with very little information to base it on.

2) Importance Ranking

How much we value it. List in order of priority E.g. meeting family top, health near top, meeting friends higher than meeting work colleagues, getting nails manicured low down, etc

What makes you think "we" have a consistent value? For some people the top rank is making money and saving jobs. Visiting friends is far lower. If you were the owner of a nail bar I suspect you'd value manicures very much higher.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:51 pm

I really wonder if there is a lot of transmission outside. One virus particle can infect. It can last in air for over 3 hours.
Outside, breezes and wind can create a plume of viruses , for many metres.

It seems likely that a lot more than one is needed: Influenza Virus Aerosols in the Air and Their Infectiousness - though obviously it's too soon to have data for Covid-19.

One thing quite noticeable about outside is that it is quite considerably bigger than inside - especially in the upward direction. This means that exhaled virions will mostly disperse and never encounter anyone to infect, while indoors there is much more scope for them to be trapped in areas where they have repeated opportunities to encounter new victims.

Millennie Al wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:46 am

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:44 pm

The way to do this is to list every normal activity we used to do in The Before.

Then give each 3 scores:
... Get a panel of experts to do the estimates.

How does the panel make a decision? And if it is on evidence, why not look at the evidence directly? This seems to be a very high-risk gamble with very little information to base it on.

2) Importance Ranking

How much we value it. List in order of priority E.g. meeting family top, health near top, meeting friends higher than meeting work colleagues, getting nails manicured low down, etc

What makes you think "we" have a consistent value? For some people the top rank is making money and saving jobs. Visiting friends is far lower. If you were the owner of a nail bar I suspect you'd value manicures very much higher.

I don't think the country is run by a shadowy consortium of nail bar owners. Unless I've missed something? Is that the source of Rees-Mogg's power?

A thought experiment would be everyone getting a vote, queuing up at the polling stations to fill in a complicated ballot with ranked choices. With a national conversation about it in the media beforehand. Obviously we can't do that, but the discussion can be had and MPs should think about what their constituents would say. Decisions should be made that are reflections of the public view - instead of made according to which wealthy donor to the Tory Party offers the fattest brown envelope to ministers.

There's little in the media about this right now. It's like the plebs are just waiting for their betters to issue decrees. That will result in choices that are biased to Conservative priorities, rather than lockdown liftings that are of value to families and communities. For example, there's little money to be made from bigger gatherings at funerals and baptisms, yet we might value that. While there's loads of money to be made by the gambling industry from restarting horse racing, and the industry has lobbying power.

This seems to be the right place to post this.

Interesting thread from twitter. Comparison of deaths in Ireland and the UK and why isn't the media all over this.

https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/ ... 8876128259