Covid-19 the unlockdown

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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bjn
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by bjn » Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:24 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:10 pm
Johnson:

UK is "now seeing a second wave" and "it's been inevitable we'd see it in this country".

If it's been inevitable why the f.ck did you bribe people to eat out more and nag them to return to offices you stupid f.cking tw.t?
I admire both your message and your indefatigability in dealing with PHPBB tags.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Gfamily » Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:43 pm

bjn wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:24 pm
lpm wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:10 pm
Johnson:

UK is "now seeing a second wave" and "it's been inevitable we'd see it in this country".

If it's been inevitable why the f.ck did you bribe people to eat out more and nag them to return to offices you stupid f.cking tw.t?
I admire both your message and your indefatigability in dealing with PHPBB tags.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:17 am

nezumi wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:36 pm
"A second national lockdown to curb the spread of coronavirus has not been ruled out, the Health Secretary has said" from my local news rag. I am about 99% certain that Johnson literally said there will not be another national lockdown. Did I imagine that or am I being gaslighted?
Wow you really have been away haven't you.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:20 am

Good to know they're prepared to avoid a second lockdown 'at any cost' although I think the cost of 'locking everything down a second time' would be less than the cost of letting everyone else get the virus.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by discovolante » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:58 pm

It's Señor von Laté's birthday today. A couple of friends have come round to say hi and I suggested we keep outside in the garden. They arrive and he immediately invites them in to show them round the house, and they do. FFS I love that man to bits but the difference in our attitude towards this thing is driving me up the wall.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun Sep 20, 2020 3:02 pm

I've actually looked through the text of the national decrees ("DPCM") and regional ordinances relating to the lockdown and the unlockdown here in Italy. This was mainly to work out where everyone seemed to be getting the idea from that we could restart dance lessons, and what rules we'd actually have to follow.

The rules in general for things which involve physical exercise would be to maintain a separation of 2 metres, since you shouldn't wear a mask for that (it would only get soggy and become useless). This is obviously not compatible with partner dancing. (Partner dancing for "entertainment" in dance halls and discos was briefly allowed during the summer as long as the couple were "a couple" but dancing quickly got shut down completely because cases spiked in holiday resorts.) There are rules about signing people in and out and measuring their temperature and stuff.

Basically the DPCM just says "unless your region says otherwise you can go back to doing amateur sports, including contact sports, according to whatever guidelines your sport's governing body has come up with". This is understood to be within the framework of amateur sports associations, which is a way of organizing non-profit sports clubs which gives you tax breaks as long as you follow a few rules. (So for example I had to get certified as a teacher but I can earn up to €10,000 per year tax-free doing it.)

Our governing body is mainly concerned with competitions but there's a paragraph saying "pre-competitive" couples should have a space of 10 square metres. At the place where I'll be teaching I marked out 8 boxes but to be honest they're each a bit smaller than that, maybe 8 square metres.

Just about all the clips of dance schools which I've seen in this restart phase look as if they've marked out 2x2 metre squares with tape and the teachers are completely failing to stay within their box. I wonder if they're going to put each couple in a 4x2 space and if someone comes to check they'll pretend they're doing solo jazz with everyone 2 metres apart...

We're going to "fix" the couples, though, rather than rotate them. This doesn't seem to be in any DPCM/ordinance/guidelines, it just seems that everyone has decided to do it this way. It seems relatively good practice.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by jimbob » Sun Sep 20, 2020 4:48 pm

I think the government doesn't have the full trust of the population.

This is from an outoors writer I follow on Facebook.
SmartSelect_20200920-174653_Facebook.jpg
SmartSelect_20200920-174653_Facebook.jpg (323.92 KiB) Viewed 672 times
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by mediocrity511 » Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:29 pm

discovolante wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:58 pm
It's Señor von Laté's birthday today. A couple of friends have come round to say hi and I suggested we keep outside in the garden. They arrive and he immediately invites them in to show them round the house, and they do. FFS I love that man to bits but the difference in our attitude towards this thing is driving me up the wall.
It's hard.

OH and I have mostly been on the same page regarding being careful. Except over the summer, I wanted to do more whilst it was safer, in preparation for a second wave. He really didn't and so we had a pretty restricted summer. But now, now the sh.t is starting to hit the fan again, he's decided he is bored of it all and he doesn't really care. Considering he is the extremely clinically vulnerable one and all the hard work I've put into trying to keep him safe and the social sacrifices we have made...I'm feeling pretty exasperated!

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by discovolante » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:25 pm

mediocrity511 wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:29 pm
discovolante wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:58 pm
It's Señor von Laté's birthday today. A couple of friends have come round to say hi and I suggested we keep outside in the garden. They arrive and he immediately invites them in to show them round the house, and they do. FFS I love that man to bits but the difference in our attitude towards this thing is driving me up the wall.
It's hard.

OH and I have mostly been on the same page regarding being careful. Except over the summer, I wanted to do more whilst it was safer, in preparation for a second wave. He really didn't and so we had a pretty restricted summer. But now, now the sh.t is starting to hit the fan again, he's decided he is bored of it all and he doesn't really care. Considering he is the extremely clinically vulnerable one and all the hard work I've put into trying to keep him safe and the social sacrifices we have made...I'm feeling pretty exasperated!
Ooft yeah that would infuriate me too, I'm sorry. The thing with SvL is he's really isn't some kind of anti masker, conspiracy theory or whatever type person, he's very well informed about it, we just have different perceptions about how to view risk on a practical and I suppose psychological level.

But the thing is, and I'm not just talking about Señor von Laté any more here, but I feel like most of the behaviours and precautions I would 'expect' from other people come at such a low cost that I really don't get why people don't just...take them. Like staying outside (the weather has been fine and these are mostly pretty outdoorsy people anyway), not getting so close to each other you're practically breathing down each other's necks (e.g. peering at people's phone screens), not rubbing your hands all over your face if you haven't been able to wash them etc. Some of that type of risky behaviour may be fairly low risk but it's also really really easy to avoid, so it just winds me up. There are other things I personally would feel a bit nervous about doing but I can understand why other people would do it e.g. indoor activities where social distancing is regulated and so on. I see that as more of a personal preference thing, as much as you can think about things in terms of preference when you're talking about a potentially deadly virus. But yeah I feel like a lot of people have never really been that careful at all, while others are still mentally in July and haven't really thought about how fast it's spreading at the moment. One of the people we met today talked about it being a 'shitshow' in England when it really doesn't seem much better up here now.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by FlammableFlower » Mon Sep 21, 2020 6:29 am

What annoys me about the government's weaseling, when asked about the failure of track and trace, about how we lead in tests per head of population (and Rees-Moggs "stop carping" comment) is that it's all very fine and dandy to have that... but it's not sufficient for our needs and definitely never was in the past.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:07 am

lpm wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:57 am
- close all pubs, restaurants and nightclubs
- close gyms, beauty saloons, bowling alleys and all the other little stuff that was salami unlockdowned
- work from home if you can work from home
- only leave your home to work, get food and exercise
- no mixing with other households for adults, but school children and students can mix
Actually, scratch that. Shutting pubs at 10 ought to do it.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:40 am

lpm wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:07 am
lpm wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:57 am
- close all pubs, restaurants and nightclubs
- close gyms, beauty saloons, bowling alleys and all the other little stuff that was salami unlockdowned
- work from home if you can work from home
- only leave your home to work, get food and exercise
- no mixing with other households for adults, but school children and students can mix
Actually, scratch that. Shutting pubs at 10 ought to do it.
Well there was at least one comment of 10PM iS ouR PEaK tImE FOr CUstomerS And WhEre We EARn AROUND 60% of ouR DAILY TAkINgs which points out why it's not a totally stupid idea. Would you rather be shut down completely or what?
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by PeteB » Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:14 am

I notice Henneghan and Gupta were invited to the No 10 summit to overrule the scaredy cats Whitty and Vallance

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:14 am

shpalman wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 3:02 pm
I've actually looked through the text of the national decrees ("DPCM") and regional ordinances relating to the lockdown and the unlockdown here in Italy. This was mainly to work out where everyone seemed to be getting the idea from that we could restart dance lessons, and what rules we'd actually have to follow.

The rules in general for things which involve physical exercise would be to maintain a separation of 2 metres, since you shouldn't wear a mask for that (it would only get soggy and become useless). This is obviously not compatible with partner dancing. (Partner dancing for "entertainment" in dance halls and discos was briefly allowed during the summer as long as the couple were "a couple" but dancing quickly got shut down completely because cases spiked in holiday resorts.) There are rules about signing people in and out and measuring their temperature and stuff.

Basically the DPCM just says "unless your region says otherwise you can go back to doing amateur sports, including contact sports, according to whatever guidelines your sport's governing body has come up with". This is understood to be within the framework of amateur sports associations, which is a way of organizing non-profit sports clubs which gives you tax breaks as long as you follow a few rules. (So for example I had to get certified as a teacher but I can earn up to €10,000 per year tax-free doing it.)

Our governing body is mainly concerned with competitions but there's a paragraph saying "pre-competitive" couples should have a space of 10 square metres. At the place where I'll be teaching I marked out 8 boxes but to be honest they're each a bit smaller than that, maybe 8 square metres.

Just about all the clips of dance schools which I've seen in this restart phase look as if they've marked out 2x2 metre squares with tape and the teachers are completely failing to stay within their box. I wonder if they're going to put each couple in a 4x2 space and if someone comes to check they'll pretend they're doing solo jazz with everyone 2 metres apart...

We're going to "fix" the couples, though, rather than rotate them. This doesn't seem to be in any DPCM/ordinance/guidelines, it just seems that everyone has decided to do it this way. It seems relatively good practice.
Our dance school promo clip has come out ok though: Instagram or Facebook.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Lew Dolby » Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:36 am

shpalman wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:14 am
Our dance school promo clip has come out ok though: Instagram or Facebook.
Now you're just trying to make us all jealous - on so many different levels :D
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by discovolante » Tue Sep 22, 2020 12:59 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:40 am
lpm wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:07 am
lpm wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:57 am
- close all pubs, restaurants and nightclubs
- close gyms, beauty saloons, bowling alleys and all the other little stuff that was salami unlockdowned
- work from home if you can work from home
- only leave your home to work, get food and exercise
- no mixing with other households for adults, but school children and students can mix
Actually, scratch that. Shutting pubs at 10 ought to do it.
Well there was at least one comment of 10PM iS ouR PEaK tImE FOr CUstomerS And WhEre We EARn AROUND 60% of ouR DAILY TAkINgs which points out why it's not a totally stupid idea. Would you rather be shut down completely or what?
If they were shut down completely the government would probably have to pay for it. This way that reality is a bit easier for them to dodge.
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shpalman
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:20 pm

Well that's true.

Also it ignores the possibility that people might just go out a bit earlier.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by discovolante » Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:26 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:20 pm
Well that's true.

Also it ignores the possibility that people might just go out a bit earlier.
Or as someone else elsewhere on the internet has pointed out, have a house party after, or instead.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by discovolante » Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:40 pm

Indoor household meetings are banned in Scotland. I wish they'd done that 3 days ago...
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:29 pm

discovolante wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:26 pm
shpalman wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:20 pm
Well that's true.

Also it ignores the possibility that people might just go out a bit earlier.
Or as someone else elsewhere on the internet has pointed out, have a house party after, or instead.
10pm onwards is a busy time because people get pissed at home on the cheap then pop out for a couple in the pub. I predict that Britons will not be cured of their endemic alcoholism, and will instead either reverse the order of events or skip the pub altogether, as you say.

Still, it'll be a good way to finish off the few remaining free houses, and probably get breweries to close a lot of their more 'local' venues. Plenty of real estate will be available for a resurgent post-covid Wetherspoons.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:51 pm

Running the numbers across the six month timeframe, the UK is already locked into another 10,000 to 20,000 deaths.

This is the best-case level that we'd get from a triumphant success now - I've taken the current upsurge and assumed it peaks in a couple of weeks or so, followed by a long slow decline like we saw in the first wave, ending up at the August background level of infections during Jan to Mar 2021. Like with CO2, lags are lags and we're locked into badness even when we take strong immediate action.

We are of course not going to get a triumphant success. The government policy clearly isn't to aim for R<1, but to keep scraping by with limited local lockdowns and national half measures, using very temporary circuit breakers when it gets too bad but never aiming to get it good. We're not yet bending the curve and there's no real reason why we should expect to bend the curve. Our partners in failure, France and Spain, are ahead of us and aren't yet bending the curve.

I've done a little scenario where on any given day 25% of the country is in harsh lockdown at R=0.7, 25% is in partial lockdown at R=1.0, 25% is at a normal lockdown level of R=1.3 and 25% is in trouble at R=1.7. When R=1.3 it's a doubling time of about 12 to 14 days, when R=1.7 it's a doubling time of about 7 to 8 days.

It gives something in the region of another 100,000 deaths in the next six months, using a IFR of 0.8%. The case numbers grow, until it's pretty out of control but not as out-as-controlly as in March. At a certain point, the scenario has to assume even the Johnson government takes proper action and tries to get R<1 nationally.

I'm struggling to get down to the region of 50,000 deaths in the next six months, based on where we are now and current doubling rates.

I can easily get to 200,000 deaths, based on current unlockdownness continuing for months.

Policy has to be either:

(1) Aim for R<1 to get control back

or

(2) Accept a lot of deaths

As I've said before, not taking a decision is actually making a decision. By dithering and not knowing what to do and being indecisive in every possible choice, the Johnson government is actually deciding to follow option (2).
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Sun Sep 27, 2020 1:01 pm

Back of the envelope:

- Currently we're at 6,500 official new cases per day.

- Multiply by x3 = approx 20,000 actual new cases per day.

- Static at this level for 180 days = 3.6 million cases.

- IFR of 0.8% = approx 30,000 deaths.

If not static at the current level, any model where it goes up then falls back to current level, must be higher than 30,000 deaths. A single doubling from here followed by a slow fall is enough to take us into the 50,000 zone.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by jimbob » Sun Sep 27, 2020 1:17 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:51 pm
Running the numbers across the six month timeframe, the UK is already locked into another 10,000 to 20,000 deaths.

This is the best-case level that we'd get from a triumphant success now - I've taken the current upsurge and assumed it peaks in a couple of weeks or so, followed by a long slow decline like we saw in the first wave, ending up at the August background level of infections during Jan to Mar 2021. Like with CO2, lags are lags and we're locked into badness even when we take strong immediate action.

We are of course not going to get a triumphant success. The government policy clearly isn't to aim for R<1, but to keep scraping by with limited local lockdowns and national half measures, using very temporary circuit breakers when it gets too bad but never aiming to get it good. We're not yet bending the curve and there's no real reason why we should expect to bend the curve. Our partners in failure, France and Spain, are ahead of us and aren't yet bending the curve.

I've done a little scenario where on any given day 25% of the country is in harsh lockdown at R=0.7, 25% is in partial lockdown at R=1.0, 25% is at a normal lockdown level of R=1.3 and 25% is in trouble at R=1.7. When R=1.3 it's a doubling time of about 12 to 14 days, when R=1.7 it's a doubling time of about 7 to 8 days.

It gives something in the region of another 100,000 deaths in the next six months, using a IFR of 0.8%. The case numbers grow, until it's pretty out of control but not as out-as-controlly as in March. At a certain point, the scenario has to assume even the Johnson government takes proper action and tries to get R<1 nationally.

I'm struggling to get down to the region of 50,000 deaths in the next six months, based on where we are now and current doubling rates.

I can easily get to 200,000 deaths, based on current unlockdownness continuing for months.

Policy has to be either:

(1) Aim for R<1 to get control back

or

(2) Accept a lot of deaths

As I've said before, not taking a decision is actually making a decision. By dithering and not knowing what to do and being indecisive in every possible choice, the Johnson government is actually deciding to follow option (2).

The first bit - those are the numbers that I come up with. Looking at the hospital ICU admissions if they continue at this rate for the next 4-weeks, most of which are already locked in, then we're at half the numbers of the April peak.

As for the rest - also that's what I see. The education system is a network linking the whole nation, and bursting the bubbles of parents and anyone who has contact with parents.

The https://covid.joinzoe.com app has 190000 symptomatic cases estimated and growing at just over 10% per day. Which is somewhere around 200 fatal infections today with a 1% IFR and remember even that has a is lagging by 4-5 days until symptoms are reported.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:23 am

molto tricky

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by discovolante » Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:43 am

TBH I think this could be handled better, it's fairly obvious that anything that involves restricting alcohol sale and consumption is going to drive everyone doolally so you need to be totally crystal clear from the outset, there's no way she couldn't have seen this coming.

On the other hand, as I said in the Covid thread, shortly after the announcement a number of media outlets reported the closure of bars and restaurants etc but absolutely nothing was said by them about the money that's going to support them.

On the other other hand, is the main driver at the moment hospitality or is it schools and unis? Not an easy solution at all if so...if it isn't then someone please say because I would like it not to be!
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