Covid-19 the unlockdown

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
User avatar
lpm
After Pie
Posts: 1831
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm
Location: INJECT HIM WITH BLEACH

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:11 am

Hospitality gives a pretty tiny benefit to the economy. Education is a huge benefit to the economy.

We can't ignore the damage to our nation's prosperity, even if we're worrying about the death toll. Fortunately it's clear which parts of 2020 economic activity should be sacrificed.
I'll miss him after he's died in the pandemic

User avatar
lpm
After Pie
Posts: 1831
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm
Location: INJECT HIM WITH BLEACH

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:35 pm

This country is falling apart.

"We won't surrender the north to hardship," says idiot mayor, instead surrendering the north to overloaded hospitals and unncessary deaths. Protesters in Scotland dump ice to complain about restrictions.

I bet all these w.nkers clapped for the NHS every Thursday.
I'll miss him after he's died in the pandemic

Trinucleus
Clardic Fug
Posts: 183
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:45 pm

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Trinucleus » Sat Oct 10, 2020 8:23 pm

lpm wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:35 pm
This country is falling apart.

"We won't surrender the north to hardship," says idiot mayor, instead surrendering the north to overloaded hospitals and unncessary deaths. Protesters in Scotland dump ice to complain about restrictions.

I bet all these w.nkers clapped for the NHS every Thursday.
I think his concern is that people forced out of work to keep the community safe will be compensated

User avatar
sTeamTraen
Catbabel
Posts: 919
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:24 pm

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:03 pm

lpm wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:35 pm
"We won't surrender the north to hardship," says idiot mayor, instead surrendering the north to overloaded hospitals and unncessary deaths.
The anti-lockdown, anti-mask people are demanding a world where the virus runs free; after a while, as a politician, I'd be tempted to be a bit like King Canute about it, and let them see first-hand that it doesn't work.

So I think we can definitely say that one way or another, Burnham is being a Cnut.
Something something hammer something something nail

nezumi
Sindis Poop
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:43 pm

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by nezumi » Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:11 pm

This whole situation is just really sh.t, isn't it.

User avatar
discovolante
After Pie
Posts: 1869
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:10 pm

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by discovolante » Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:12 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:03 pm
lpm wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:35 pm
"We won't surrender the north to hardship," says idiot mayor, instead surrendering the north to overloaded hospitals and unncessary deaths.
The anti-lockdown, anti-mask people are demanding a world where the virus runs free; after a while, as a politician, I'd be tempted to be a bit like King Canute about it, and let them see first-hand that it doesn't work.

So I think we can definitely say that one way or another, Burnham is being a Cnut.
He does seem to be just...asking for more money though. Is that c.ntish?
don't get any big ideas, they're not gonna happen

AMS
Fuzzable
Posts: 353
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:14 pm

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by AMS » Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:23 pm

discovolante wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:12 pm
sTeamTraen wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:03 pm
lpm wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:35 pm
"We won't surrender the north to hardship," says idiot mayor, instead surrendering the north to overloaded hospitals and unncessary deaths.
The anti-lockdown, anti-mask people are demanding a world where the virus runs free; after a while, as a politician, I'd be tempted to be a bit like King Canute about it, and let them see first-hand that it doesn't work.

So I think we can definitely say that one way or another, Burnham is being a Cnut.
He does seem to be just...asking for more money though. Is that c.ntish?
This is interesting, for a bit more context:
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk ... ssion=true

Apart from the breakdown in trust, it mentions that the local leaders are frustrated that the government are ignoring the data from local contact tracing work on where transmission is actually happening in different areas.

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3790
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: nadir of brie

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:57 am

discovolante wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:12 pm
sTeamTraen wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:03 pm
lpm wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:35 pm
"We won't surrender the north to hardship," says idiot mayor, instead surrendering the north to overloaded hospitals and unncessary deaths.
The anti-lockdown, anti-mask people are demanding a world where the virus runs free; after a while, as a politician, I'd be tempted to be a bit like King Canute about it, and let them see first-hand that it doesn't work.

So I think we can definitely say that one way or another, Burnham is being a Cnut.
He does seem to be just...asking for more money though. Is that c.ntish?
No, of course not. The government should be ensuring that people can afford to take necessary precautions. The alternative is massive costs to the NHS, and additional economic hit from the epidemic, so it's not even like they'd be spending extra money.
“One of the penalties of an ecological education is that one lives alone in a world of wounds.”
― Aldo Leopold, A Sand County Almanac (1949)

#ShowYourStripes

User avatar
discovolante
After Pie
Posts: 1869
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:10 pm

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by discovolante » Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:12 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:57 am
discovolante wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:12 pm
sTeamTraen wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:03 pm


The anti-lockdown, anti-mask people are demanding a world where the virus runs free; after a while, as a politician, I'd be tempted to be a bit like King Canute about it, and let them see first-hand that it doesn't work.

So I think we can definitely say that one way or another, Burnham is being a Cnut.
He does seem to be just...asking for more money though. Is that c.ntish?
No, of course not. The government should be ensuring that people can afford to take necessary precautions. The alternative is massive costs to the NHS, and additional economic hit from the epidemic, so it's not even like they'd be spending extra money.
No, I don't think he's being a c.nt. I watched the 3 minute video which may have been edited from the conference referred to in the MEN article AMS linked to?? and I can't see that he has said that lockdown shouldn't be happening, just that the financial support offered is inadequate. It does seem very short-termist. I understand the difficulty is how it can be reported and perceived as resistance to the very concept of lockdown, but if people are going to be thrown into financial hardship then I'm not sure what else he could do; this seems to get to the heart of the problem with the government's lack of strategy. The Scottish Government has made similar hints but Nicola Sturgeon is taking a much more softly-softly approach, I am genuinely not sure what to make of that though.

Also yes thanks for the link AMS. Definitely a good reminder that it's worth checking the local news in these situations.
don't get any big ideas, they're not gonna happen

User avatar
Sciolus
Fuzzable
Posts: 338
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:42 pm

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Sciolus » Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:17 am

Test, trace, isolate, support.

The government has been sh.t at the first two throughout and is still failing horribly. It did pretty well on the last two back in March/April but now the situation is more complex seems to be struggling, and it's perfectly proper to demand it gets its act together.

User avatar
lpm
After Pie
Posts: 1831
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm
Location: INJECT HIM WITH BLEACH

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:56 pm

You don't negotiatate with the EU by saying unless they give us more support, we'll throw ourselves off a cliff with No Deal and make their ears suffer when we scream on the way down.

So why are northern leaders negotiatating with the government by saying unless they give us more support, we'll obstruct and undermine lockdown measures and see more of our people sicken and die?

Utterly ridiculous.
I'll miss him after he's died in the pandemic

Trinucleus
Clardic Fug
Posts: 183
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:45 pm

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Trinucleus » Sun Oct 11, 2020 2:29 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:56 pm
You don't negotiatate with the EU by saying unless they give us more support, we'll throw ourselves off a cliff with No Deal and make their ears suffer when we scream on the way down.

So why are northern leaders negotiatating with the government by saying unless they give us more support, we'll obstruct and undermine lockdown measures and see more of our people sicken and die?

Utterly ridiculous.
Isn't that exactly the tactic that the Government is pursuing? Burnuam clearly thinks they'll recognise its cleverness

User avatar
jimbob
After Pie
Posts: 1606
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by jimbob » Sun Oct 11, 2020 2:41 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:57 am
discovolante wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:12 pm
sTeamTraen wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:03 pm


The anti-lockdown, anti-mask people are demanding a world where the virus runs free; after a while, as a politician, I'd be tempted to be a bit like King Canute about it, and let them see first-hand that it doesn't work.

So I think we can definitely say that one way or another, Burnham is being a Cnut.
He does seem to be just...asking for more money though. Is that c.ntish?
No, of course not. The government should be ensuring that people can afford to take necessary precautions. The alternative is massive costs to the NHS, and additional economic hit from the epidemic, so it's not even like they'd be spending extra money.
Bingo.

Even from a basic economic viewpoint, potentially maiming several percent of the population is bad.And people will end up reducing their economic activity out of fear anyway... but as it wouldn't be as comprehensive or coordinated as a competent governmental response, it would end up lasting longer
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3790
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: nadir of brie

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Oct 11, 2020 3:20 pm

It's not clear to me what other options the mayor would have for making that point on behalf of his constituents - any suggestions?
“One of the penalties of an ecological education is that one lives alone in a world of wounds.”
― Aldo Leopold, A Sand County Almanac (1949)

#ShowYourStripes

User avatar
discovolante
After Pie
Posts: 1869
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:10 pm

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by discovolante » Sun Oct 11, 2020 3:37 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:56 pm
You don't negotiatate with the EU by saying unless they give us more support, we'll throw ourselves off a cliff with No Deal and make their ears suffer when we scream on the way down.

So why are northern leaders negotiatating with the government by saying unless they give us more support, we'll obstruct and undermine lockdown measures and see more of our people sicken and die?

Utterly ridiculous.
He hasn't threatened to defy any lockdown measures (yet), he's stuck very firmly with the financial implications and what should be done about it. He's requested that the decision is made by Parliament - something which has been a contentious issue for a good while now - and has said he's considering legal action as an alternative, again apparently regarding the financial package itself rather than the decision to lock down.

Yes it is probably fairly inevitable that people will pick up on this and decide they can't or shouldn't abide by lockdown measures, but that's happening anyway and as has been discussed in other threads, low adherence to isolation rules and so on apparently tend to be related to economic and other issues. I'm not sure Andy Burnham is currently the main driving force behind the resistance to lockdown, tbh.

Basically he's bringing to a head something that needs to be addressed and if he's successful it could end up being significant as we carry on dipping in and out of various local lockdowns over the next several months or however long this lasts for.

He's probably also mindful of the financial impact on councils if people aren't able to financially maintain themselves.

I mean, I'm wrong about most things but I don't think Andy Burnham has quite reached the status of Labour's Mark Francois yet, maybe he'll get there.
don't get any big ideas, they're not gonna happen

User avatar
lpm
After Pie
Posts: 1831
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm
Location: INJECT HIM WITH BLEACH

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:54 am

South Korea are reopening their gyms today 12 October when confirmed cases are at around 75 per day.

The UK reopened their gyms on 25 July when confirmed cases were at around 650 per day.

There's no mystery on why some countries are second waving. It's the stupid, impatient countries full of selfish people.
I'll miss him after he's died in the pandemic

User avatar
shpalman
After Pie
Posts: 1987
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Mon Oct 12, 2020 8:12 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:54 am
South Korea are reopening their gyms today 12 October when confirmed cases are at around 75 per day.

The UK reopened their gyms on 25 July when confirmed cases were at around 650 per day.

There's no mystery on why some countries are second waving. It's the stupid, impatient countries full of selfish people.
Italy reopened its gyms at the beginning of June when there were around 300 cases per day, but the numbers kept going down anyway.

The new laws being discussed here probably won't close the gyms but may limit pubs.

In the UK, if people spent more time in the gym and less time in the pub, covid wouldn't be as bad.
molto tricky

User avatar
lpm
After Pie
Posts: 1831
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm
Location: INJECT HIM WITH BLEACH

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:23 am

It's symbolic.

There were a hundred other things the UK unlockdowned that South Korea did not.

South Korea looks at everything in macro. UK keeps looking in micro. A permanent belief that you can tinker your way through this, instead of the macro approach of getting cases really low and relying on massive test and trace whenever a case pops up.
I'll miss him after he's died in the pandemic

User avatar
jimbob
After Pie
Posts: 1606
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by jimbob » Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:38 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:23 am
It's symbolic.

There were a hundred other things the UK unlockdowned that South Korea did not.

South Korea looks at everything in macro. UK keeps looking in micro. A permanent belief that you can tinker your way through this, instead of the macro approach of getting cases really low and relying on massive test and trace whenever a case pops up.
Indeed. A fairly harsh lockdown with gaping holes. Suppose the first lockdown had worked and cases in the country dropped to zero. They weren't quarantining airport arrivals, so it'd have flared up in multiple locations within a week.

The government had no plan for if its primary measures worked.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
lpm
After Pie
Posts: 1831
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm
Location: INJECT HIM WITH BLEACH

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:49 am

Blurry because the govt scientists crammed too much on to one slide, but pretty clear story on the heat map.

Across Europe and the US, it starts with 16-30 year olds and steadily spreads upwards.

About the only good news is that it doesn't really spread downwards to <16s. Primary school children are mostly safe from spread.

Image
I'll miss him after he's died in the pandemic

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3790
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: nadir of brie

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:36 am

Woah

That's a remarkably clear plot

Government and uni administrations have both massively f.cked up here.
“One of the penalties of an ecological education is that one lives alone in a world of wounds.”
― Aldo Leopold, A Sand County Almanac (1949)

#ShowYourStripes

User avatar
Sciolus
Fuzzable
Posts: 338
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:42 pm

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Sciolus » Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:07 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:49 am
Blurry because the govt scientists crammed too much on to one slide, but pretty clear story on the heat map.

Across Europe and the US, it starts with 16-30 year olds and steadily spreads upwards.

About the only good news is that it doesn't really spread downwards to <16s. Primary school children are mostly safe from spread.
So, the same as we saw elsewhere two months ago. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone (except, presumably, Gupta and co.).

raven
Fuzzable
Posts: 238
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:58 pm

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by raven » Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:25 pm

From that Manchester News article AMS linked to:
The city’s own internal analysis of Greater Manchester-wide contact tracing suggests that while bars and restaurants were the most common setting - aside from households - for outbreaks between mid-August and mid-September, that then began to drop steeply and the sector is now behind offices, shops and factories.
That sounds right-ish. In August & September, people were eating out to help out & taking the opportunity to socialise with friends while they could. Now the kids are back at school, students are back at uni, and everybody else is going back to the daily grind, as evidenced by the increase in traffic at 8am on our daily walking route.

There must be some figures somewhere about how many people are still working from home and when the majority went back.

AMS
Fuzzable
Posts: 353
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:14 pm

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by AMS » Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:55 pm

Another good article from the Atlantic:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... ic/616548/

It makes an interesting point about what we're getting wrong with our contact tracing (aside from the UK specific piss-up-in-brewery-fail aspect). The contribution of superspreader events is so significant to the total transmission of the virus that it becomes less important to trace the individual contacts of each positive case to find the people they met a day or two previously. It's far more important to work out where and when they got infected and then find everyone else who was also there, i.e. mapping backwards, not forwards, up the chain of infection.

It also means lower quality but cheaper & quicker tests have their place, as they are good for spotting clusters even if they miss a few cases.

User avatar
lpm
After Pie
Posts: 1831
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm
Location: INJECT HIM WITH BLEACH

Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:13 pm

That article might be useful for planning the 3rd wave, but it's bugger all help now.

The approach requires a functioning testing service that isn't overwhelmed by volume and get give results in 24 hours, plus a tracing service that can actually trace people. Realistically the UK and other European countries might be able to achieve it when case numbers get back into the hundreds per day - but it's simply too tough a task when countries are in the thousands per day.

The article does give implications for why random locations in the UK, like Leicester, have big outbreaks - get unlucky with a string of superspreader events and your rate blasts upwards. And yet because every UK region has endemic cases, each location eventually gets unlucky with some superspreading and the country begins to even out. In the UK we went from 5% to 25% to 50% to 75% of local areas having too high a daily case count. Cases haven't risen across the country because of importing from hot spots like Preston or wherever (though neighbours do get impacted) - they rise in a local place internally when the background bubbling away suddenly fizzes up with a couple of superspreadings.
I'll miss him after he's died in the pandemic

Post Reply