Covid-19 the unlockdown

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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jimbob
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by jimbob » Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:19 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:13 pm
That article might be useful for planning the 3rd wave, but it's bugger all help now.

The approach requires a functioning testing service that isn't overwhelmed by volume and get give results in 24 hours, plus a tracing service that can actually trace people. Realistically the UK and other European countries might be able to achieve it when case numbers get back into the hundreds per day - but it's simply too tough a task when countries are in the thousands per day.

The article does give implications for why random locations in the UK, like Leicester, have big outbreaks - get unlucky with a string of superspreader events and your rate blasts upwards. And yet because every UK region has endemic cases, each location eventually gets unlucky with some superspreading and the country begins to even out. In the UK we went from 5% to 25% to 50% to 75% of local areas having too high a daily case count. Cases haven't risen across the country because of importing from hot spots like Preston or wherever (though neighbours do get impacted) - they rise in a local place internally when the background bubbling away suddenly fizzes up with a couple of superspreadings.
Yup, one pub crawl too many, fir example
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lpm
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:28 pm

These local MPs and mayors are driving me crazy.

They should be glad they have been put in the High tier. They should be demanding they get put in the Very High tier.

There's clear evidence from across the world that the harder and faster you attack Covid levels, the better it is for your economy. It's the sh.t half-hearted countries that have had the worst economic pain. Do these people want to trash all their local businesses by dragging out lockdown measures for far longer?
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Trinucleus
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Trinucleus » Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:48 pm

I think Boris has missed a political trick given his obsession with control. During austerity, the Government made sure the cuts were delivered locally by Councils and PCTs, so the blame was kept away from Westminster. If he'd supported local public health bodies in imposing restrictions, apart from it being a better decision, he would have avoided some of the flack

AMS
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by AMS » Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:44 pm

Trinucleus wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:48 pm
I think Boris has missed a political trick given his obsession with control. During austerity, the Government made sure the cuts were delivered locally by Councils and PCTs, so the blame was kept away from Westminster. If he'd supported local public health bodies in imposing restrictions, apart from it being a better decision, he would have avoided some of the flack
For Johnson, I think it's more of an obsession with total loyalty rather than control. Cummings is the control freak. But agreed both seem to have a massive blind spot about seeking outside opinions.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Millennie Al » Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:41 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:54 am
There's no mystery on why some countries are second waving. It's the stupid, impatient countries full of selfish people.
Considering that the effective policies are better for the economy and save lives, I think the problem is ignorance and stupidity. The most selfish people, if they were clever and informed, should be willing to tolerate short effective measures rather than long periods of costly but ineffective measures. Even people who are personally confident in their own health should realise that the longer this goes on the more their wealth is at risk.
Covid-19 - Don't catch it: don't spread it.

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lpm
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:01 am

Sage proposed a 2 week circuit breaker on 21 September, when confirmed cases were about 3,700 per day.

The government ignored their advice.

Cases are now around 14,000 per day. A couple of doublings.

The UK's journey to a failed state began in 2010, when the government imposed counter-productive austerity measures that held back the economy. It is now obviously a failed state in the Covid arena, Brexit and forming international relationships and treaties. It is still functioning for basic functions like police, military, education and local services. My concern is that the government will take us further down the slope to a failed state. It's hard to imagine the police failing at its basic function, but it has in many parts of the US. It's hard to imagine the bins not being collected but local services for the vulnerable are at the point of collapse. The No Deal and Covid combo is going to create the loss of stable jobs like car manufacture as well as the loss of casual jobs like serving coffee in a caff. And of course the country is breaking up, with Northern Ireland highly likely to leave and the controlling party in Scotland trying to leave.
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lpm
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:49 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:28 pm
These local MPs and mayors are driving me crazy.

They should be glad they have been put in the High tier. They should be demanding they get put in the Very High tier.

There's clear evidence from across the world that the harder and faster you attack Covid levels, the better it is for your economy. It's the sh.t half-hearted countries that have had the worst economic pain. Do these people want to trash all their local businesses by dragging out lockdown measures for far longer?
At least some are getting it.

Essex County Council have requested they be moved from Medium to High.

They're seeing a rise in cases and hope being in High will prevent them being in Very High later.

Every single county in should make the same request because Medium is plainly insufficient to prevent indigenous cases rising sooner or later.
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FlammableFlower
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by FlammableFlower » Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:50 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:28 pm
These local MPs and mayors are driving me crazy.

They should be glad they have been put in the High tier. They should be demanding they get put in the Very High tier.

There's clear evidence from across the world that the harder and faster you attack Covid levels, the better it is for your economy. It's the sh.t half-hearted countries that have had the worst economic pain. Do these people want to trash all their local businesses by dragging out lockdown measures for far longer?
The problem is that when they go into these half-hearted measures that drag things out so the patience of the population wears thin and implementing more restrictive measures will be resisted and as such it takes a greater threat to get sufficient compliance.

JellyandJackson
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by JellyandJackson » Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:36 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:49 am
lpm wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:28 pm
These local MPs and mayors are driving me crazy.

They should be glad they have been put in the High tier. They should be demanding they get put in the Very High tier.

There's clear evidence from across the world that the harder and faster you attack Covid levels, the better it is for your economy. It's the sh.t half-hearted countries that have had the worst economic pain. Do these people want to trash all their local businesses by dragging out lockdown measures for far longer?
At least some are getting it.

Essex County Council have requested they be moved from Medium to High.

They're seeing a rise in cases and hope being in High will prevent them being in Very High later.

Every single county in should make the same request because Medium is plainly insufficient to prevent indigenous cases rising sooner or later.
I live in Essex. The view among the local neighbourhood fb page is that the council are requesting an upgraded tier because they get paid more from govt as a consequence.
A thousand strawberry lollies and the princess of Lichtenstein.

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Sciolus
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Sciolus » Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:31 pm

Well, I defended Burnham above, but it turns out he is indeed being a dangerous, stupid tw.t.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Hunting Dog » Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:46 pm

JellyandJackson wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:36 pm
I live in Essex. The view among the local neighbourhood fb page is that the council are requesting an upgraded tier because they get paid more from govt as a consequence.
Hello neighbour :D

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Grumble
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Grumble » Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:23 pm

Well now, sale of alcohol banned in the House of Commons.
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

JellyandJackson
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by JellyandJackson » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:03 pm

Hunting Dog wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:46 pm
JellyandJackson wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:36 pm
I live in Essex. The view among the local neighbourhood fb page is that the council are requesting an upgraded tier because they get paid more from govt as a consequence.
Hello neighbour :D
Hello! Always nice to meet a fellow Essex person. :D
A thousand strawberry lollies and the princess of Lichtenstein.

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tenchboy
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by tenchboy » Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:13 pm

Blackburn with Darwen has the highest rate of new cases of Covid-19 in England, with 1,176 new cases recorded in the seven days to October 23 - the equivalent of 785.6 cases per 100,000 people.
and yet...

oh look we've found a loop-hole.

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