Covid phone tracking

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lpm
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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by lpm » Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:31 pm

?

A positive flu test should mean isolation of contacts. We've got a great chance of making 2020/21 the lowest flu season ever seen, which directly boosts NHS capacity.
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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by tom p » Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:42 pm

AMS wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:23 pm
JQH wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:48 am
shpalman wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:31 am
How do they expect the number of cases to go down by winter?
The more susceptible members of the population will be dead already. Or they'll blame the deaths on flu. Wouldn't be the first time.
It might be a good idea to start building test capacity for flu too. If someone has a fever but tests negative for Covid, a simultaneous positive flu test off the same sample would add confidence it wasn't a false negative, and also means their contacts don't need to isolate.
Good thinking

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lpm
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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by lpm » Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:46 pm

Is there much southern hemisphere flu? Did the lockdowns have an impact?

Any reason why we can't guess the strain now and get the entire UK vaccinated by end of Sept?
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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by shpalman » Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:51 pm

https://twitter.com/MackayIM/status/126 ... 42208?s=19
IMG_20200618_235049.jpg
IMG_20200618_235049.jpg (113.46 KiB) Viewed 977 times
molto tricky

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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by Squeak » Thu Jun 18, 2020 11:12 pm

Adding to shpalman's post, the flutracking survey asks volunteers weekly to report whether they have a cough and/or fever. If you answer yes, you get a couple more questions about having had a flu test. This year, there's a bunch more covid-relevant questions and they started tracking earlier than usual. It looks as though Australians are avoiding most of our usual winter illnesses, so far.
weeklyreportgraph2020AU.PNG
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Martin_B
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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by Martin_B » Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:51 am

And a lot of TV adverts telling us to get flu vaccinations. I don't know if the vaccination take-up rate is higher this year, or whether the lower curve on Squeak's chart is solely the outcome of increased social distancing.
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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by Squeak » Fri Jun 19, 2020 3:04 am

Martin_B wrote:
Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:51 am
And a lot of TV adverts telling us to get flu vaccinations. I don't know if the vaccination take-up rate is higher this year, or whether the lower curve on Squeak's chart is solely the outcome of increased social distancing.
I can't find good comparative numbers on vaccination rates but I can find various news articles talking about "record" and "unprecedented" uptake of flu vaccines this year.

Anecdotally, the desire to visit family members in care homes has moved various friends and acquaintances who didn't think the flu vaccine was relevant to them to (grudgingly) get vaccinated this year so that they're allowed to visit. I wonder how many of this year's record number will form a habit of getting it every year from now on...

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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by lpm » Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:57 am

Thanks, this is going to be interesting to watch. Flu obviously isn't as deadly as Covid, but it's still pretty deadly in nursing homes and is a huge winter health service pressure. It'll be pretty grim if that pink line followed a 2017 trajectory and coincided with a second wave.
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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by PeteB » Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:29 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:29 pm
PeteB wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:57 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:03 pm
...

AIUI the app is being developed by an in-house team at the NHS, so there seems to be less room for the usual Tory snouts-in-trough corruption in this case.
I don't think it is an in-house team at the NHS, I thought it was awarded to Dom's mate's brother (without tendering) that worked on the Vote Leave stuff

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/stat ... 04?lang=en
Ahhh ok, I thought NHSX were doing it but it sounds like they've subbed it out.

I guess that explains it, then. They're not using one of the other apps available because they want to funnel public money to their mates (and probably back to themselves).
I think that tweet I referenced overstated the role that Marc Warner's Faculty AI had in the app, the development work (as far as I can tell) was done by VMware Pivotal Labs and developers from Zuhlke.

It's hard to tell exactly what role Faculty had because it is redacted , possibly some modelling to help with the spec for it

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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by jimbob » Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:38 am

Fishnut wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:25 am
Boris Johnson’s patience wears thin over tracing app

FT story so article is reproduced below:
Boris Johnson and his senior Downing Street advisers are growing increasingly impatient at delays to the launch of the NHS’s coronavirus tracing app, pressing health officials for a rethink even as a new trial is set for next week.

According to two people with knowledge of the situation, pressure from Number 10 has been stepped up in the past few days with one telling the Financial Times that the prime minister wants serious consideration to be given to a different version of the app, which incorporates Google and Apple technology.

One UK government official said there was “frustration with how long everything takes but the reality is that we are building something from scratch”. The official added: “It is obviously taking longer than people would have hoped.”

Health secretary Matt Hancock unveiled the tracing app at the start of May, insisting it would allow the UK “to take a more targeted approach to lockdown, while still safely containing the disease” and suggesting it would form the centrepiece of the tracing effort.

But it attracted controversy from the start with questions raised by privacy campaigners over the NHS’s plan to gather data in a central database and concerns over whether the technology would work.

Launching the test and trace programme late last month, its head, Dido Harding, described the app as “the cherry on the cake, rather than the cake itself” and refused to be drawn on a timetable for its implementation. A revised version of the app, which corrects previous glitches, is expected to be rolled out on the Isle of Wight early next week.

NHSX, the UK health service’s digital innovation arm, had already instructed its developers to begin building a second version of the app using the Google and Apple template, a move described by health officials at the time as a back-up option.

Switching to the Google and Apple technology would bring Britain into line with those being used by other European countries and make the app compatible for any Britons travelling abroad. Italy and Switzerland are expected to roll out versions of the app in the next few weeks.

The Google and Apple system also enables a key bluetooth function that detects proximity between phones without running down the battery — a problem NHSX developers are still struggling to solve on some devices.

However, the main stumbling block for the UK app team is that Google and Apple will not allow their technology to be used in any app that attempts wholesale collection of data — which NHSX regards as essential in tracking the spread of the virus.

Christophe Fraser, an epidemiologist at Oxford university who is advising on the app, said last week that the question for ministers of whether to switch to a different design using Google and Apple technology remains live. “That’s a policy choice . . . that will be addressed at a point in time,” he told MPs.

But just switching to the US technology companies’ version may not be straightforward. "[It] isn’t just this existing technology that we can copy and paste for an app to be ready tomorrow. It’s just as complicated,” said the government official.

Following the first phase of the Isle of Wight trial, which started in early May, developers have adapted the NHSX app so that it now only triggers alerts to a user in response to one of their contacts receiving a positive Covid-19 test result. Previously it was configured to alert people if one of their recent contacts reported symptoms of the virus. This change is partly because of the UK’s increased testing capacity.

People familiar with the thinking around the project said that ditching the current version would push back the app by at least two months, making it more likely that the original NHSX version would be rolled out first, leaving the option open to switch at a later date. NHSX declined to comment.

Meanwhile, an independent group of scientists said on Tuesday that the government’s test and trace strategy is “not fit for purpose” and has caused a loss of “moral authority”.

Independent Sage, an advisory group formed by 12 scientists as an alternative to the government’s top scientific advisory group, proposed instead a locally devolved system that would hand greater roles to existing local health systems, community doctors, nurses and environmental health officers.
We're never going to have a functioning tracking app, are we. Why are we "building something from scratch" when other countries have successfully created tracking apps?
A hallmark of this government. "Let's see about reinventing the log-based roller whilst ignoring those who have actually worked out about axles and wheels."
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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jimbob
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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by jimbob » Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:42 am

lpm wrote:
Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:45 pm
350 million cakes a week. And a proper red, white and blue plane for Boris to shag in.
Does he actually think he's Austin Powers or Dr Evil? Just wanting to be the first PM to join the mile high club?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by Tessa K » Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:47 am

jimbob wrote:
Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:42 am
lpm wrote:
Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:45 pm
350 million cakes a week. And a proper red, white and blue plane for Boris to shag in.
Does he actually think he's Austin Powers or Dr Evil? Just wanting to be the first PM to join the mile high club?
It's a good idea. It will make it easier to point and laugh at.

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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by jdc » Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:44 pm

headshot wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:17 pm
Aaaaand, it looks like they'll abandon their sh.t app developed by Dom's mates and got with the Apple/Google decentralised versions: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... gle-models

f.cking time and money wasting w.nkers.
I thought this was moderately interesting:
Apple says it did not know the UK was working on a "hybrid" version of the NHS coronavirus contact-tracing app using tech it developed with Google.

The firm took the unusual step of saying it was also unaware of an issue regarding distance-measuring, which was flagged by Health Secretary Matt Hancock in Thursday's daily briefing.

Apple said it was "difficult to understand" the claims.

Downing Street said the government had "worked closely with Apple and Google".
"We've agreed to join forces with Google and Apple, to bring the best bits of both systems together," Mr Hancock said.

However, Apple said: "We don't know what they mean by this hybrid model. They haven't spoken to us about it."

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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by headshot » Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:57 pm

They just can’t stop lying.

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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by Tessa K » Sat Jun 20, 2020 6:19 am

jdc wrote:
Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:44 pm
headshot wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:17 pm
Aaaaand, it looks like they'll abandon their sh.t app developed by Dom's mates and got with the Apple/Google decentralised versions: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... gle-models

f.cking time and money wasting w.nkers.
I thought this was moderately interesting:
Apple says it did not know the UK was working on a "hybrid" version of the NHS coronavirus contact-tracing app using tech it developed with Google.

The firm took the unusual step of saying it was also unaware of an issue regarding distance-measuring, which was flagged by Health Secretary Matt Hancock in Thursday's daily briefing.

Apple said it was "difficult to understand" the claims.

Downing Street said the government had "worked closely with Apple and Google".
"We've agreed to join forces with Google and Apple, to bring the best bits of both systems together," Mr Hancock said.

However, Apple said: "We don't know what they mean by this hybrid model. They haven't spoken to us about it."
This is the source of the quotes above: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53105642

I know nothing this government does should surprise me but the stupidity of lying about something like this when the lie would so easily be exposed is a new low. This is the way children lie. Are they a) bad liars b) too arrogant to think anyone would dare challenge them or c) just not giving a sh.t?

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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by Fishnut » Sat Jun 20, 2020 7:02 am

Tessa K wrote:
Sat Jun 20, 2020 6:19 am
Are they a) bad liars b) too arrogant to think anyone would dare challenge them or c) just not giving a sh.t?
I think it's C. They don't care. While Starmer may be giving them a roasting at PMQs there's no real risk of an election now for a few years so there's no real accountability.

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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by shpalman » Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:15 am

Tessa K wrote:
Sat Jun 20, 2020 6:19 am
I know nothing this government does should surprise me but the stupidity of lying about something like this when the lie would so easily be exposed is a new low. This is the way children lie. Are they a) bad liars b) too arrogant to think anyone would dare challenge them or c) just not giving a sh.t?
They're just arrogant and lazy.

"Did you do your homework?"

"I looked at it" (= "no")
molto tricky

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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by headshot » Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:49 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:15 am
Tessa K wrote:
Sat Jun 20, 2020 6:19 am
I know nothing this government does should surprise me but the stupidity of lying about something like this when the lie would so easily be exposed is a new low. This is the way children lie. Are they a) bad liars b) too arrogant to think anyone would dare challenge them or c) just not giving a sh.t?
They're just arrogant and lazy.

"Did you do your homework?"

"I looked at it" (= "no")
I think it’s more purposefully mendacious than that. They’re using the Bannon “flood the zone with sh.t” technique.

So much of what they say and do is probably false, but their plan is just to do so much of it that it’s hard to oppose effectively.

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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by JQH » Sat Jun 20, 2020 1:28 pm

A Gish gallop of lies, in fact.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

Fintan O'Toole

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shpalman
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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by shpalman » Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:27 pm

NHS Covid app developers 'tried to block rival symptom trackers'
NHSX, the health service technology unit responsible for the government’s failed contact-tracing app, attempted to block rival apps to protect its own, hampering efforts to track the early spread of the coronavirus.

Developers were urged to stop work by NHSX and the Ministry of Defence, who told them their apps might distract attention from NHSX’s app when it launched. Last week the app was abandoned after three months, with work beginning on an alternative design without any deadline.

Prof Tim Spector, of King’s College London, said that NHSX had treated his Covid symptom tracker research team as “the enemy”. “We were hampered from the beginning, in March when we first contacted NHSX,” he told the Observer. “They were very worried about our app taking attention away from theirs and confusing the public.

“Lots of signals went to places like the universities, my university, the medical charities and the royal colleges not to back our app because that would interfere with their one.”
molto tricky

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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by jdc » Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:14 pm

NYT have noticed that our track-and-trace is being managed as well as every other aspect of the pandemic by our marvellous government: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/17/worl ... virus.html

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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by shpalman » Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:26 pm

There's lots of cOvId tRaCkInG hAs bEeN eNaBlEd oN yOuR pHoNe wItHoUt tElLiNg yOu going around - it's just that the ability of your phone to work with COVID tracking apps which use the Apple or Google framework is now in the Apple or Google software on your phone. Of course it won't do anything in the UK until the UK actually has a tracking app which uses the Apple or Google framework.

If I go to the relevant setting on my Android phone (Settings - General - Google - COVID-19 exposure notifications) it shows that such things are being handled via the Immuni app.
molto tricky

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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by shpalman » Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:27 pm

France's app doesn't seem to have been very useful so far.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20200623/france ... its-launch

(it appears to work on a centralised model https://www.france24.com/en/20200617-fr ... icial-says )
molto tricky

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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by headshot » Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:54 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:27 pm
France's app doesn't seem to have been very useful so far.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20200623/france ... its-launch

(it appears to work on a centralised model https://www.france24.com/en/20200617-fr ... icial-says )
And that minister appears to have put his hair on backwards.

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Re: Covid phone tracking

Post by shpalman » Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:22 am

Despite claiming that no country currently has a working app, the UK is now asking for help with its totally not-working app from a country which has a less not-working app https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 87106.html
molto tricky

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