Hydroxychloroquine trial

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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Tessa K
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Hydroxychloroquine trial

Post by Tessa K » Thu May 21, 2020 9:06 am

I know we've touched on this in other threads relating to Trump's promotion of it but now we're testing it here.
Chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine or a placebo will be given to more than 40,000 healthcare workers from Europe, Africa, Asia and South America. All the participants are staff who are in contact with Covid-19 patients [...] It will test whether the drugs can prevent healthcare workers exposed to the virus from contracting it [...] Hydroxychloroquine regulates the body's immune response and is also used in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and Lupus [...]

It has not yet been shown to be safe and effective in the prevention or treatment of coronavirus and can cause dangerous heart arrhythmias.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52737169

Could someone who understands this better than me please explain how you can prove a negative in this case? Take this and you won't get Covid. Even with a control group, aren't there many other factors that could skew the results?

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Little waster
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Re: Hydroxychloroquine trial

Post by Little waster » Thu May 21, 2020 9:12 am

Tessa K wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:06 am
I know we've touched on this in other threads relating to Trump's promotion of it but now we're testing it here.
Chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine or a placebo will be given to more than 40,000 healthcare workers from Europe, Africa, Asia and South America. All the participants are staff who are in contact with Covid-19 patients [...] It will test whether the drugs can prevent healthcare workers exposed to the virus from contracting it [...] Hydroxychloroquine regulates the body's immune response and is also used in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and Lupus [...]

It has not yet been shown to be safe and effective in the prevention or treatment of coronavirus and can cause dangerous heart arrhythmias.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52737169

Could someone who understands this better than me please explain how you can prove a negative in this case? Take this and you won't get Covid. Even with a control group, aren't there many other factors that could skew the results?
I suppose as long as the three arms of the study are comparable in their make-up of the participants in terms of age, sex, ethnicity, role, country etc. then the confounding factors are controlled for so any statistically significant additional benefit/cost to the members of one of the arms will show up compared to the others.
Shamelessly recycling old jokes since 1952.

tom p
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Re: Hydroxychloroquine trial

Post by tom p » Thu May 21, 2020 2:58 pm

Little waster wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:12 am
Tessa K wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:06 am
I know we've touched on this in other threads relating to Trump's promotion of it but now we're testing it here.
Chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine or a placebo will be given to more than 40,000 healthcare workers from Europe, Africa, Asia and South America. All the participants are staff who are in contact with Covid-19 patients [...] It will test whether the drugs can prevent healthcare workers exposed to the virus from contracting it [...] Hydroxychloroquine regulates the body's immune response and is also used in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and Lupus [...]

It has not yet been shown to be safe and effective in the prevention or treatment of coronavirus and can cause dangerous heart arrhythmias.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52737169

Could someone who understands this better than me please explain how you can prove a negative in this case? Take this and you won't get Covid. Even with a control group, aren't there many other factors that could skew the results?
I suppose as long as the three arms of the study are comparable in their make-up of the participants in terms of age, sex, ethnicity, role, country etc. then the confounding factors are controlled for so any statistically significant additional benefit/cost to the members of one of the arms will show up compared to the others.
Exactly. It's no different to a vaccine trial, except this one won't work & it's only being done because a French quack conned a gobby racist with the biggest bully pulpit in the world.
I can't see how any ethics committee could, in good conscience, allow this trial to take place.

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Stranger Mouse
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Re: Hydroxychloroquine trial

Post by Stranger Mouse » Thu May 21, 2020 4:49 pm

It’s already clear that people who have been taking this. Rap for lupus are not protected from Covid so presumably all this is to keep on Trump’s good side

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04- ... ovid-.html
A caterpillar does all the work but the butterfly gets all the publicity.

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Woodchopper
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Re: Hydroxychloroquine trial

Post by Woodchopper » Fri May 22, 2020 3:29 pm

Just published @TheLancet
The largest study of hydroxychloroquine shows a significant increase in death (~35%) and >2-fold increase of serious heart arrhythmias. ~96,000 patients, ~15,000 on HCQ or CQ from 671 hospitals, 6 continents.
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/12 ... 4287725574

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Stranger Mouse
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Re: Hydroxychloroquine trial

Post by Stranger Mouse » Fri May 22, 2020 8:43 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 3:29 pm
Just published @TheLancet
The largest study of hydroxychloroquine shows a significant increase in death (~35%) and >2-fold increase of serious heart arrhythmias. ~96,000 patients, ~15,000 on HCQ or CQ from 671 hospitals, 6 continents.
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/12 ... 4287725574
Dead cat distraction? https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/poli ... 242780002/
A caterpillar does all the work but the butterfly gets all the publicity.

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Little waster
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Re: Hydroxychloroquine trial

Post by Little waster » Mon May 25, 2020 5:47 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... fety-fears

Well that was unexpected*.


*in the sense of completely expected.
Shamelessly recycling old jokes since 1952.

AMS
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Re: Hydroxychloroquine trial

Post by AMS » Tue May 26, 2020 10:19 am

Little waster wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 5:47 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... fety-fears

Well that was unexpected*.


*in the sense of completely expected.
From that article:

A controversial French doctor who has promoted the use of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine for coronavirus said on Monday he stood by his belief the drugs could help patients recover. He also rejected the Lancet study of the records of 96,000 patients across hundreds of hospitals.

“How can a messy study done with ‘big data’ change what we see?”, Prof Didier Raoult asked in a video posted on the website of his infectious diseases hospital in Marseille.

“Here we have had 4,000 people go through our hospital, you don’t think I’m going to change because there are people who do ‘big data’, which is a kind of completely delusional fantasy,” he said.


This is Wakefield-esque territory.

Blackcountryboy
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Re: Hydroxychloroquine trial

Post by Blackcountryboy » Tue May 26, 2020 10:41 am

Little waster wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 5:47 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... fety-fears

Well that was unexpected*.


*in the sense of completely expected.
WHO have said that just to annoy Trump.

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