Could an earlier lockdown have saved 30,000?

[Martin_B]

China has proven that lockdown early and often is the key.

Really? Because:
a) the official death toll from China is being queried in numerous locations for being absurdly low considering the number of cases, and;
b) the Chinese population themselves don't like the heavy-handed lockdowns which have often resulted in hardship, particularly when authorities seem unprepared for a prolonged lockdown in providing those unable to even leave their buildings with basics of food and water.

[Herainestold]

China's southern city of Shenzhen on Monday shut down the world's largest electronics market and suspended public transport nearby as authorities enforced neighborhood-wide lockdowns in response to a small number of Covid cases.
Huaqiangbei, a busy shopping area home to thousands of stalls selling computer components, mobile phone parts and microchips, is among three neighborhoods placed under a mandatory four-day lockdown in Futian district, according the district government.
Residents in those neighborhoods are forbidden to leave their homes except for Covid testing, which they are required to undergo daily until Thursday.

The Chinese are the only ones keeping covid at bay

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/30/business ... index.html

[IvanV]

The Chinese are the only ones keeping covid at bay

Is "keeping covid at bay" the right objective today?

[EACLucifer]

China's southern city of Shenzhen on Monday shut down the world's largest electronics market and suspended public transport nearby as authorities enforced neighborhood-wide lockdowns in response to a small number of Covid cases.
Huaqiangbei, a busy shopping area home to thousands of stalls selling computer components, mobile phone parts and microchips, is among three neighborhoods placed under a mandatory four-day lockdown in Futian district, according the district government.
Residents in those neighborhoods are forbidden to leave their homes except for Covid testing, which they are required to undergo daily until Thursday.

The Chinese are the only ones keeping covid at bay

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/30/business ... index.html

The Republic of China did a pretty damn good job, yes.

The recalcitrant and unruly provinces of West Taiwan less so, given it was their lax safety standards and government-sponsored superstitions that brought the pandemic into existence, their cruel and stupid censorship and subversion of international bodies that prevented the action needed to contain it early, and their ridiculous vaccine nationalism that prevented a rollout of effective vaccines needed to contain the disease without harmful and draconian measures.

[Herainestold]

Taiwan was successful by adapting the Chinese covid protocols to their own situation. Unlike this country.

Mean while China is still dealing with covid, rather than ignoring it, like here.

According to a tally published by Caixin, a Chinese business magazine, there are 33 cities, including seven provincial capitals that are under either full or partial lockdown.

There are reports of COVID-19 outbreaks in 103 cities in China. This is the highest number of outbreaks since the height of the pandemic in early 2020.

Authorities are requiring lockdowns and quarantines as part of their “zero-COVID” policy.

In the southwestern city of Chengdu, almost 21 million people are under lockdown. Schools are closed and classes have been moved to being fully virtual.
New cases recorded

The National Health Commission reported Monday that within 24 hours, China recorded 1,552 new COVID-19 cases across the nation.

1500 cases among 1.5 billion people. Draw your own conclusions.

https://news.yahoo.com/65-million-peopl ... N2z9tUZSha

[lpm]

H: Draw your own conclusions.

Everyone sane: Conclusion is they are lying fascists.

H: No, not like that.

[Herainestold]

H: Draw your own conclusions.

Everyone sane: Conclusion is they are lying fascists.

H: No, not like that.

The lying fascists are here in this country. We all know that.

[Bird on a Fire]

H: Draw your own conclusions.

Everyone sane: Conclusion is they are lying fascists.

H: No, not like that.

The lying fascists are here in this country. We all know that.

As crap as Truss is, she's a million times better than Xi the Pooh. We all know that too.

[Chris Preston]

Mean while China is still dealing with covid, rather than ignoring it, like here.

According to a tally published by Caixin, a Chinese business magazine, there are 33 cities, including seven provincial capitals that are under either full or partial lockdown.

There are reports of COVID-19 outbreaks in 103 cities in China. This is the highest number of outbreaks since the height of the pandemic in early 2020.

Authorities are requiring lockdowns and quarantines as part of their “zero-COVID” policy.

In the southwestern city of Chengdu, almost 21 million people are under lockdown. Schools are closed and classes have been moved to being fully virtual.
New cases recorded

The National Health Commission reported Monday that within 24 hours, China recorded 1,552 new COVID-19 cases across the nation.

1500 cases among 1.5 billion people. Draw your own conclusions.

The problem China has is that they don’t have an exit plan, so this is forever. They will have to lockdown more and more of the country as the current lockdowns are not stamping out the disease outbreaks.

Their failure to adopt an effective vaccination strategy is coming back to haunt them.

[Herainestold]

China's big error was failing to vaccinate its elderly, one thing that the UK actually did adequately.
Vaccination, even with Chinese vax, is very good at preventing severe outcomes, not so good at limiting infection.
If you want to stop outbreaks, you have to rely on lockdowns, which the Chinese have mastered.

[Opti]

Yeah, cos China stopped having Covid outbreaks a long time ago. AmIRight?

[Herainestold]

Yeah, cos China stopped having Covid outbreaks a long time ago. AmIRight?

China are having outbreaks and dealing with them.
We are in a continuous outbreak and ignoring it.

[bob sterman]

Yeah, cos China stopped having Covid outbreaks a long time ago. AmIRight?

China are having outbreaks and dealing with them.
We are in a continuous outbreak and ignoring it.

Whereas China ignores other things...

Outcry as Chinese lockdown traps residents during earthquake
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-62804213

China Covid lockdowns leave residents short of food and essential items
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-62830326

[Bird on a Fire]

China caused the pandemic by continuing to have crap biosecurity measures in their wildlife farming trade, which they knew was an issue after SARS. Their first response? Try to cover up the outbreak.

When that failed, they then tried to destroy the evidence of where it came from. They still won't share samples with the world community, and have been promoting conspiracy theories that undermined trust between people and authorities in other countries.

So they've simultaneously caused the pandemic, retarded the world's response to it and helped to prevent a necessary conversation on how we limit further zoonotic crossovers, which is likely given the continued intensification of meat/fur farming and the fragmentation of habitats.

Locking people in their houses is, similarly, to cover up the problem, not to deal with it. And we don't know if they are successfully dealing with it, because we don't have reliable numbers from China. About anything.

[EACLucifer]

China caused the pandemic by continuing to have crap biosecurity measures in their wildlife farming trade, which they knew was an issue after SARS. Their first response? Try to cover up the outbreak.

When that failed, they then tried to destroy the evidence of where it came from. They still won't share samples with the world community, and have been promoting conspiracy theories that undermined trust between people and authorities in other countries.

So they've simultaneously caused the pandemic, retarded the world's response to it and helped to prevent a necessary conversation on how we limit further zoonotic crossovers, which is likely given the continued intensification of meat/fur farming and the fragmentation of habitats.

Locking people in their houses is, similarly, to cover up the problem, not to deal with it. And we don't know if they are successfully dealing with it, because we don't have reliable numbers from China. About anything.

This. I would also add that the most likely intermediate species are eaten because of superstitious beliefs, not for nutrition. The belief that eating certain animals - often endangered ones - increase the vigour of those that do so is of course completely unfounded. However, the belief system behind this, traditional Chinese "medicine", is promoted by the government due to a mixture of race-nationalism and the need to cover for Red China's lack of proper health coverage for most people.

[shpalman]

UK should have focused more on stopping Covid-type pandemic

England’s chief medical officer, Sir Chris Whitty, said the UK “did not give sufficient thought” to stopping Covid in its tracks as he listed multiple problems with preparedness in his first cross-examination at the pandemic public inquiry.

For example, his badly-prepared computer model and made up concept of "compliance fatigue" is what led to the "four weeks behind Italy" nonsense and the idea that the UK should just wait and calmly lock down a bit later to take the edge of the ICU occupancy... and not that capacity was about to be exceeded by orders of magnitude.

[jimbob]

UK should have focused more on stopping Covid-type pandemic

England’s chief medical officer, Sir Chris Whitty, said the UK “did not give sufficient thought” to stopping Covid in its tracks as he listed multiple problems with preparedness in his first cross-examination at the pandemic public inquiry.

For example, his badly-prepared computer model and made up concept of "compliance fatigue" is what led to the "four weeks behind Italy" nonsense and the idea that the UK should just wait and calmly lock down a bit later to take the edge of the ICU occupancy... and not that capacity was about to be exceeded by orders of magnitude.

Exactly.

And as we were pointing out at the time, all you needed was the ability to plot and read numbers on a log plot to see that it was wrong.

[Herainestold]

The sensible option would have been to emulate the Chinese actions and impose a robust lockdown immediately.

[LydiaGwilt]

The sensible option would have been to emulate the Chinese actions and impose a robust lockdown immediately.

Your enthusiasm for robust (draconian) lockdowns is rather disturbing.

[shpalman]

The sensible option would have been to emulate the Chinese actions and impose a robust lockdown immediately.

Your enthusiasm for robust (draconian) lockdowns is rather disturbing.

It would have been a good thing to do at the beginning though. The scientists should have suggested it and let the politicians decide how to present the idea to the public or whether to impose it on them.

[LydiaGwilt]

The sensible option would have been to emulate the Chinese actions and impose a robust lockdown immediately.

Your enthusiasm for robust (draconian) lockdowns is rather disturbing.

It would have been a good thing to do at the beginning though. The scientists should have suggested it and let the politicians decide how to present the idea to the public or whether to impose it on them.

Yes, I agree - if you could have persuaded the politicians in time. After the footage of all the army lorries leaving Bergamo full of coffins might have worked politically. The Italians did try isolating the first two towns (sorry I've forgotten their names), but I think it was already too late even then (for the Italian outbreak).
But the insistence on emulating the Chinese, which comes up in practically every discussion of anything, becomes very tiresome.

[EACLucifer]

Your enthusiasm for robust (draconian) lockdowns is rather disturbing.

It would have been a good thing to do at the beginning though. The scientists should have suggested it and let the politicians decide how to present the idea to the public or whether to impose it on them.

Yes, I agree - if you could have persuaded the politicians in time. After the footage of all the army lorries leaving Bergamo full of coffins might have worked politically. The Italians did try isolating the first two towns (sorry I've forgotten their names), but I think it was already too late even then (for the Italian outbreak).
But the insistence on emulating the Chinese, which comes up in practically every discussion of anything, becomes very tiresome.

Especially as the initial Chinese response was to lie and cover up, strongarm the WHO and denounce border controls that might have contained the disease. By the time they admitted it, it was too late. Had they been honest from the get go, it might not have been.

Mind you, if they'd not carried out a dangerous and unethical trade in live animals specifically in order to cater to superstition, then it might not have happened at all.

The only Chinese example we should be looking to is that of the Republic of China.

[Herainestold]

ROC did well, acting extremely quickly, not dithering.
Lockdown works to suppress transmission, nothing else does as good a job.
UK had a much better vaccination program than China. Combining the two would have been very successful,
Kind of what Australia did.