International travel

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OffTheRock
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Re: International travel

Post by OffTheRock » Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:20 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 10:43 am
OffTheRock wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:18 pm
4 days might not be enough this time. Moving your flight now also means moving your pre-flight covid test. Seems there’s quite a queue for tests now and it might not be possible to get a test & a result in time.
https://www.lincolnshirelive.co.uk/news ... me-5495465
I take it from that he hadn’t thought too much about what he was going to do if he tested positive while out there and had to isolate.

I’d love to go home and see my parents but it’s such an absolute ball ache trying to cover everything I can’t work out why everyone thought sodding of to Portugal for a holiday was a good idea. I imagine GoFundMe will do quite well out of this.

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Woodchopper
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Re: International travel

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Jun 07, 2021 11:23 am

Thread on the role of international travel in spreading a Covid variant round Europe in Summer 2020: https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1 ... 93600?s=20

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: International travel

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Jun 07, 2021 11:45 am

Millennie Al wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 12:57 am
shpalman wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 6:30 am
So Portugal is back off the Green list to protect the British from the rising cases of the Indian variant which British tourists took there?
With the usual stupidity of giving people enough notice that they can do the exact opposite of what is needed and rush to cross the border before quarantine would be required. If somewhere is found to be dangerous (and prediction is hard, so that means it's dangerous right now) the change should be instant.
To be fair, I don't think they've changed the rules because Portugal has been found to be dangerous. Here are the daily new cases for the last three months:
Screenshot_2021-06-07_12-39-35.png
Screenshot_2021-06-07_12-39-35.png (45.95 KiB) Viewed 514 times
Nothing going on there at all.

The official reason is that the "Nepal mutant" has been detected here and they don't want to take any chances in case it's vaccine-defeating. Presumably that means they'll also be locking the UK down, as there are more cases of it there than here.
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Woodchopper
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Re: International travel

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Jun 07, 2021 1:26 pm

I'm not sure there is nothing going on in the case numbers. It looks like a steady rise from early May onwards.

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shpalman
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Re: International travel

Post by shpalman » Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:06 pm

Have a look at their Our World In Data data for various European countries.

Most had higher cases rates than either the UK or Portugal, but the ones with higher rates were coming down (and the ones with intermediate rates were more or less constant). UK and Portugal were low but coming up (although the UK has a weird drop-out in the data, probably because of the bank holiday). The past few days, the UK has been coming up a lot though.
molto tricky

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Re: International travel

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:33 pm

It's a bit weird, because it looks like there was a constant decline through March, then a leap up to the same level at the beginning of April followed by exactly the same decline again, and now slowly increasing again toward that level.

The country was unlocking during that time, with key dates on 15 March, 5 April, 19 April and 1 May, which don't seem to line up hugely well with changes in numbers (and there's been a big increase in routine testing at a lot of schools and workplaces).

So I dunno if it's actually going up in a worrying way or if it's just wobbling around.

Guess we'll find out soon enough.
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Re: International travel

Post by Herainestold » Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:51 pm

Do you have the Delta variant in Portugal?
Double dose. Double mask. Double distance

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Woodchopper
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Re: International travel

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:44 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:06 pm
Have a look at their Our World In Data data for various European countries.

Most had higher cases rates than either the UK or Portugal, but the ones with higher rates were coming down (and the ones with intermediate rates were more or less constant). UK and Portugal were low but coming up (although the UK has a weird drop-out in the data, probably because of the bank holiday). The past few days, the UK has been coming up a lot though.
One sobering thing is that all the countries on that graph have ahigher level on infection than they did on 6 June 2020.

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shpalman
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Re: International travel

Post by shpalman » Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:00 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:44 pm
shpalman wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:06 pm
Have a look at their Our World In Data data for various European countries.

Most had higher cases rates than either the UK or Portugal, but the ones with higher rates were coming down (and the ones with intermediate rates were more or less constant). UK and Portugal were low but coming up (although the UK has a weird drop-out in the data, probably because of the bank holiday). The past few days, the UK has been coming up a lot though.
One sobering thing is that all the countries on that graph have ahigher level on infection than they did on 6 June 2020.
It's fine though because more testing plus vaccines means deaths are lo... oh.
molto tricky

Herainestold
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Re: International travel

Post by Herainestold » Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:15 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:00 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:44 pm
shpalman wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:06 pm
Have a look at their Our World In Data data for various European countries.

Most had higher cases rates than either the UK or Portugal, but the ones with higher rates were coming down (and the ones with intermediate rates were more or less constant). UK and Portugal were low but coming up (although the UK has a weird drop-out in the data, probably because of the bank holiday). The past few days, the UK has been coming up a lot though.
One sobering thing is that all the countries on that graph have ahigher level on infection than they did on 6 June 2020.
It's fine though because more testing plus vaccines means deaths are lo... oh.
We need to get those cases and hospitalizations down so that we will be ready for the next wave.
Double dose. Double mask. Double distance

OffTheRock
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Re: International travel

Post by OffTheRock » Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:00 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:51 pm
Do you have the Delta variant in Portugal?
I’d imagine they do now. No idea if the had it before 17th May.

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Re: International travel

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Jun 07, 2021 10:35 pm

Yes, the Nepal Mutant I referred to is a mutation in the Delta/Indian strain. The last report I saw was 3 days ago, of 68 cases of the Delta here (12 with the new mutation). I've not been following the covid news much recently as I'm enjoying a respite, so not sure if more is known (publicly) about who's got it and where it's from.
Last edited by Bird on a Fire on Mon Jun 07, 2021 10:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: ...I was right the first time
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Re: International travel

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Jun 07, 2021 10:56 pm

A bit more info in this Portuguese article (google translate will probably handle it fine though).

ICU cases are trending down still. The increasing number of cases is probably only partly explained by the increase in numbers of tests related to people returning to work and school and stuff, and R looks to be 1.08 at the moment, which isn't good.

87.7% of cases sequenced are the Alpha/Kent variant, which arrived last summer (muito obrigado!).
Also 104 cases of the South Africa variant, 139 of the Brazil variant, both with community transmission, and now 74 of the Indian variant. They quote the report (my crap translation):
The genomic sequencing revealed several distinct introductions of this variant in Portugal. The absence of epidemiological linkage in some of the most recent cases could indicate the existence of its community transmission.
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lpm
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Re: International travel

Post by lpm » Mon Jun 07, 2021 11:05 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:44 pm
shpalman wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:06 pm
Have a look at their Our World In Data data for various European countries.

Most had higher cases rates than either the UK or Portugal, but the ones with higher rates were coming down (and the ones with intermediate rates were more or less constant). UK and Portugal were low but coming up (although the UK has a weird drop-out in the data, probably because of the bank holiday). The past few days, the UK has been coming up a lot though.
One sobering thing is that all the countries on that graph have ahigher level on infection than they did on 6 June 2020.
I don't find that sobering.

It was criminal to deliberately run it hot in March 2020. But the criminality was killing tens of thousands and putting people in hospital.

That doesn't apply now. We should run it hot because we get more education, social contact and general human happiness.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

OffTheRock
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Re: International travel

Post by OffTheRock » Mon Jun 07, 2021 11:43 pm

I don’t know about the education. Lot of opening and closing of bubbles going on at the moment.

Millennie Al
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Re: International travel

Post by Millennie Al » Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:20 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 11:45 am
Millennie Al wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 12:57 am
Portugal...
With the usual stupidity of giving people enough notice that they can do the exact opposite of what is needed and rush to cross the border before quarantine would be required. If somewhere is found to be dangerous (and prediction is hard, so that means it's dangerous right now) the change should be instant.
To be fair, I don't think they've changed the rules because Portugal has been found to be dangerous.
According to the official statements, that seems likely to be what they believe, but it seems they're looking in the wrong place.

There's probably a better source for this, but I can only trace the figures back to https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... Covid.html which says that 1.5% (3 of 200) passengers from Portugal during May 6 to May 19 tested positive. That's 1500/100,000 while (slightly later) cases in Portugal were 30.2/100,000 and England was 35.9/100,000.

That's a far greater concentration of cases. I expect that plane travel is exceptionally bad at spreading it - lots of time spent in close quarters with many strangers (possible trip to the airport on public transport, queueing for checkin, queueing for security, waiting to board, flying, queueing for baggage, waiting for customs, waiting for covid test stuff, possible trip on public transport).
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Bird on a Fire
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Re: International travel

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:28 am

I'm mainly surprised that they only tested 200 passengers. That's woefully inadequate. (I'm not sure why woeful inadequacy surprises me any more, though, tbh)

Given the risks inherent to plane travel the sensible thing would be to ensure everyone has a negative test before boarding, of course.
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Herainestold
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Re: International travel

Post by Herainestold » Tue Jun 08, 2021 1:50 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 10:56 pm
A bit more info in this Portuguese article (google translate will probably handle it fine though).

ICU cases are trending down still. The increasing number of cases is probably only partly explained by the increase in numbers of tests related to people returning to work and school and stuff, and R looks to be 1.08 at the moment, which isn't good.

87.7% of cases sequenced are the Alpha/Kent variant, which arrived last summer (muito obrigado!).
Also 104 cases of the South Africa variant, 139 of the Brazil variant, both with community transmission, and now 74 of the Indian variant. They quote the report (my crap translation):
The genomic sequencing revealed several distinct introductions of this variant in Portugal. The absence of epidemiological linkage in some of the most recent cases could indicate the existence of its community transmission.
looks like you may have an interesting summer. I would suggest double masking.
Double dose. Double mask. Double distance

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Re: International travel

Post by hakwright » Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:56 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:33 pm
It's a bit weird, because it looks like there was a constant decline through March, then a leap up to the same level at the beginning of April followed by exactly the same decline again, and now slowly increasing again toward that level.

The country was unlocking during that time, with key dates on 15 March, 5 April, 19 April and 1 May, which don't seem to line up hugely well with changes in numbers (and there's been a big increase in routine testing at a lot of schools and workplaces).

So I dunno if it's actually going up in a worrying way or if it's just wobbling around.

Guess we'll find out soon enough.
Having a 7-day averaged figure helps a lot to see the trends. Based on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/portugal, new daily cases were falling steadily until the very end of March. Then a bump upwards over a two-week period, then declining from mid-Aprill. In early May the low-point for 7-day average was around 330, it is around 560 for 7th June. That's a pretty steady and significant rise (70%) over a month.

One of my pet peeves is that after all this time, many (most?) media bodies report figures that are recent daily figures, rather than looking at 7-day averages to try and establish trends. I know their business model is to get lots of clicks etc, but having headlines of "today's figure had several zeros at the end" or "today's figure was x% higher/lower than this time last week" is really not helping people to understand significant shifts in the spread of infection and its consequences.

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Re: International travel

Post by shpalman » Tue Jun 08, 2021 1:03 pm

hakwright wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:56 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:33 pm
It's a bit weird, because it looks like there was a constant decline through March, then a leap up to the same level at the beginning of April followed by exactly the same decline again, and now slowly increasing again toward that level.

The country was unlocking during that time, with key dates on 15 March, 5 April, 19 April and 1 May, which don't seem to line up hugely well with changes in numbers (and there's been a big increase in routine testing at a lot of schools and workplaces).

So I dunno if it's actually going up in a worrying way or if it's just wobbling around.

Guess we'll find out soon enough.
Having a 7-day averaged figure helps a lot to see the trends. Based on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/portugal, new daily cases were falling steadily until the very end of March. Then a bump upwards over a two-week period, then declining from mid-Aprill. In early May the low-point for 7-day average was around 330, it is around 560 for 7th June. That's a pretty steady and significant rise (70%) over a month.

One of my pet peeves is that after all this time, many (most?) media bodies report figures that are recent daily figures, rather than looking at 7-day averages to try and establish trends. I know their business model is to get lots of clicks etc, but having headlines of "today's figure had several zeros at the end" or "today's figure was x% higher/lower than this time last week" is really not helping people to understand significant shifts in the spread of infection and its consequences.
The Guardian live blog was always doing that, they obviously had a template which went "Today's new covid cases in Italy was N_today as against N_yesterday yesterday..."

(See also, reporting few or zero deaths just because it happened to be a weekend or holiday.)
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Bird on a Fire
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Re: International travel

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Jun 08, 2021 1:24 pm

hakwright wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:56 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:33 pm
It's a bit weird, because it looks like there was a constant decline through March, then a leap up to the same level at the beginning of April followed by exactly the same decline again, and now slowly increasing again toward that level.

The country was unlocking during that time, with key dates on 15 March, 5 April, 19 April and 1 May, which don't seem to line up hugely well with changes in numbers (and there's been a big increase in routine testing at a lot of schools and workplaces).

So I dunno if it's actually going up in a worrying way or if it's just wobbling around.

Guess we'll find out soon enough.
Having a 7-day averaged figure helps a lot to see the trends. Based on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/portugal, new daily cases were falling steadily until the very end of March. Then a bump upwards over a two-week period, then declining from mid-Aprill. In early May the low-point for 7-day average was around 330, it is around 560 for 7th June. That's a pretty steady and significant rise (70%) over a month.
Yes, exactly - the two-week bump in early April was pretty weird, in that it didn't really correlate with any particular unlockdown measure, and went down again on its own.

It'll be interesting to see what happens over the next few weeks - was the late May bump correlated with the two weeks of British green-listing, local factors or a bit of both? Will it require government action to get it under control? Only time will tell. (Anecdotally there has been a lot of friction between locals and tourists with the latter refusing to obey mask rules, curfew rules etc., but I've avoided going anywhere touristy since the 17th).

I'm not super worried yet, as it's still one of the lowest rates in Europe, vulnerable people are basically all vaccinated now, and it's sunny every day from now till September.
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Re: International travel

Post by shpalman » Fri Jun 18, 2021 4:31 pm

My vaccination-based "Green Pass" should automatically appear in my "IO" App over the next couple of days, since the law on this was signed yesterday. (If not I should be able to add it manually to my Covid contact-tracking app once I receive the code by SMS, or I might be able to activate it via my electronic health records if all else fails).

It should allow me to travel freely within the EU starting in July.

Meanwhile, Italy imposes quarantine on UK visitors. Better late than never I suppose.

(Italy's case rate is 15/100,000/week and falling at a halving time of about 12 days.)
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shpalman
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Re: International travel

Post by shpalman » Sat Jun 19, 2021 6:49 am

molto tricky

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Re: International travel

Post by Brightonian » Sat Jun 19, 2021 3:09 pm

Twitter thread on what to expect if you're returning to the UK: https://twitter.com/lisataljard/status/ ... 69863?s=19

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