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Re: International travel
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:28 pm
by Herainestold
WFJ wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:23 pm
Herainestold wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:02 pm
Why do we have these regulations? If we are trying to control infections, then insist on negative PCR tests (plural). Or close the borders.
If we are worried about foreigners taking up valuable NHS beds, insist on triple vaccination. Or close the borders.
I agree it is not going to go away. Ever. We do need to get it to a place where society can function and the NHS is not overwhelmed.
What possible use would more than one PCR have? Are false negatives due to testing errors a big problem? If not then a series of negative tests prior to the most recent tells you nothing.
PCR tests have fewer false negatives than LFT tests. Still they have more false negatives than false positives. Two negatives in a row make the chance of a false negative extremely low.
In some jurisdictions two negative PCR results were required to release people from quarantine. I think most have dropped that requirement by now
but it is worth reinstating.
Re: International travel
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:31 pm
by Herainestold
lpm wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:13 pm
The NHS was not overwhelmed by the Christmas wave. It now never will be, unless there's a deadly variant with Omi speed out there.
Which means it now nothing but a fight to get more resources into the NHS for the next couple of decades to cope with the on going health need.
We were extremely lucky with Omicron. The next variant and its ensuing wave will be worse. We need to remain vigilant.
Re: International travel
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:36 pm
by Bird on a Fire
Herainestold wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:31 pm
lpm wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:13 pm
The NHS was not overwhelmed by the Christmas wave. It now never will be, unless there's a deadly variant with Omi speed out there.
Which means it now nothing but a fight to get more resources into the NHS for the next couple of decades to cope with the on going health need.
We were extremely lucky with Omicron. The next variant and its ensuing wave will be worse. We need to remain vigilant.
I agree we need to remain vigilant, but there's no reason to expect the next variant to be more deadly. More contagious and less/later symptomaticness would be the way to evolve - dead folks don't transmit viruses.
The impact of Omi has been much less bad than I expected. Other than clinically vulnerable people faced with the choice of shielding forever or YOLOing, the worst probably is over and it's just another little ratchet on the worsening of the global environment, nothing special.
Re: International travel
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:41 pm
by WFJ
Herainestold wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:28 pm
PCR tests have fewer false negatives than LFT tests. Still they have more false negatives than false positives.
Two negatives in a row make the chance of a false negative extremely low.
In some jurisdictions two negative PCR results were required to release people from quarantine. I think most have dropped that requirement by now
but it is worth reinstating.
Only if the false negatives are due to error. I thought most false negatives are due to tests being performed too soon following infection, in which case two tests are pointless for people entering the country.
Re: International travel
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:00 pm
by Herainestold
WFJ wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:41 pm
Herainestold wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:28 pm
PCR tests have fewer false negatives than LFT tests. Still they have more false negatives than false positives.
Two negatives in a row make the chance of a false negative extremely low.
In some jurisdictions two negative PCR results were required to release people from quarantine. I think most have dropped that requirement by now
but it is worth reinstating.
Only if the false negatives are due to error. I thought most false negatives are due to tests being performed too soon following infection, in which case two tests are pointless for people entering the country.
They have to be properly spaced.
Re: International travel
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:06 pm
by WFJ
Herainestold wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:00 pm
WFJ wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:41 pm
Herainestold wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:28 pm
PCR tests have fewer false negatives than LFT tests. Still they have more false negatives than false positives.
Two negatives in a row make the chance of a false negative extremely low.
In some jurisdictions two negative PCR results were required to release people from quarantine. I think most have dropped that requirement by now
but it is worth reinstating.
Only if the false negatives are due to error. I thought most false negatives are due to tests being performed too soon following infection, in which case two tests are pointless for people entering the country.
They have to be properly spaced.
However you space them, how does an earlier negative give you any more information than a negative on day of departure or the day before? Unless false negatives due to testing errors are a large problem, I do not see how it can. It would just be pointless theatre.
Re: International travel
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2022 1:39 pm
by shpalman
- IMG_20220210_143817_117.jpg (12.26 KiB) Viewed 3478 times
I don't really think this is going to happen but it'll be interesting since my family have booked a week in Tenerife in March and I'm invited...
Re: International travel
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2022 2:08 pm
by Bird on a Fire
I reckon more places will be relaxing restrictions, to be honest.
Portugal's dropped the requirement for a negative test if you're vaxed, for instance.
https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/20 ... letter-668
Ending self isolation is weird as heck but I don't know that the UK will be specifically targeted in retribution.
Re: International travel
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2022 2:28 pm
by shpalman
Spain's travel portal, whose URL appears to be spit.gob.es, was initially a bit slow in sending confirmation codes but I seem to have managed to register on it now. Coming from the EU should make it easier, as long as they pay attention to my travel history and proof of residency and don't get distracted by my passport; it's part of Schengen so I shouldn't even need to go through immigration.
Re: International travel
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2022 3:43 pm
by headshot
We've moved our postponed Germany Christmas trip (cancelled because of internal German restrictions) to Easter...so I'll be very pissed off indeed if that happens - but I very much doubt it will.
Re: International travel
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2022 4:31 pm
by Herainestold
headshot wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 3:43 pm
We've moved our postponed Germany Christmas trip (cancelled because of internal German restrictions) to Easter...so I'll be very pissed off indeed if that happens - but I very much doubt it will.
Have the German restrictions been relaxed much? I would be much happier living in a jurisdiction with robust Covid controls rather than none.
Re: International travel
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:17 pm
by headshot
Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 4:31 pm
Have the German restrictions been relaxed much? I would be much happier living in a jurisdiction with robust Covid controls rather than none.
It’s federal, so different in each state.
For Saxony, yes, a little. They’re reopening cultural and sporting establishments and relaxing the rules for entering shops and restaurants. (Though still 3G - so tested, recovered or vaccination)
Tourism businesses can reopen.
Work from home rules are in place - or 3G if at the workplace.
FFP2 masks are required on public transport, care facilities and indoor public spaces.
They decide whether to keep the rules in place according to hospitalisation rates. But it’s not clear how much notice they give - f.ck knows how people can run businesses under that sort of uncertainty.
I think they’re actually overdoing it a bit…
Re: International travel
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2022 11:16 pm
by Herainestold
headshot wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:17 pm
Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 4:31 pm
Have the German restrictions been relaxed much? I would be much happier living in a jurisdiction with robust Covid controls rather than none.
It’s federal, so different in each state.
For Saxony, yes, a little. They’re reopening cultural and sporting establishments and relaxing the rules for entering shops and restaurants. (Though still 3G - so tested, recovered or vaccination)
Tourism businesses can reopen.
Work from home rules are in place - or 3G if at the workplace.
FFP2 masks are required on public transport, care facilities and indoor public spaces.
They decide whether to keep the rules in place according to hospitalisation rates. But it’s not clear how much notice they give - f.ck knows how people can run businesses under that sort of uncertainty.
I think they’re actually overdoing it a bit…
Hopefully there wont be any additional restrictions before Easter and you can enjoy your trip.
Re: International travel
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2022 11:24 pm
by WFJ
In Germany the current discussions are over whether all restrictions should be removed in late March.
Re: International travel
Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:40 am
by Herainestold
WFJ wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 11:24 pm
In Germany the current discussions are over whether all restrictions should be removed in late March.
I am pretty sure by Easter there will be a new variant anyway.
Re: International travel
Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2022 8:50 am
by WFJ
Herainestold wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:40 am
WFJ wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 11:24 pm
In Germany the current discussions are over whether all restrictions should be removed in late March.
I am pretty sure by Easter there will be a new variant anyway.
There will always be new variants. That does not mean restrictions can last forever. I doubt that all rules and restrictions will be removed in March, but most will be.
Re: International travel
Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:27 pm
by Herainestold
The next variant is bound to be worse. We will always need some restrictions.
Re: International travel
Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2022 5:36 pm
by WFJ
Herainestold wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:27 pm
The next variant is bound to be worse. We will always need some restrictions.
Worse in what way, and how would you know?
There have always been communicable diseases and they can never be fully avoided. Restrictions have to end at some point and most countries will struggle to enforce further lockdowns unless there is a future wave that results in very high hospitalisation overrunning capacities. Hopefully the reduced risk of death and hospitalisation from omicron shows the path the disease will go down.
Re: International travel
Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:41 pm
by Bird on a Fire
Yeah, the world's just got a bit more dangerous*, after a century-ish during which it was mostly becoming safer*.
We're seeing the same kind of thing with the natural environment. Human technological advancement has solved a lot of old problems, but is also creating new ones.
Most people will probably basically be fine. You just have to get used to the realisation that we can't actually manage risk as well as we like to think. We're all subject to far more powerful forces.
*in terms of infectious disease
Re: International travel
Posted: Sat Feb 12, 2022 9:07 am
by Chris Preston
Herainestold wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:40 am
WFJ wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 11:24 pm
In Germany the current discussions are over whether all restrictions should be removed in late March.
I am pretty sure by Easter there will be a new variant anyway.
However, a new variant may not be sufficiently infective to be a problem. For a new variant to be competitive against omicron, it needs to be more infective than omicron. There is increasingly little space for this to occur.
From the beginning of the pandemic it took roughly 12 months for the alpha and delta variants to arise. After that roughly 12 months for the omicron variant to arise. The other variants mostly did not become world wide.
The other characteristic a new variant could have to be successful is to have the ability to infect previously infected with omicron.
Given how widespread omicron has become, any new variant will be a variant of omicron.
Re: International travel
Posted: Sat Feb 12, 2022 10:23 am
by shpalman
Re: International travel
Posted: Sat Feb 12, 2022 10:28 am
by sTeamTraen
On a practical note, Spain has just announced that 12-17 year olds who are not fully vaccinated will be allowed in with a negative test from Monday, thus removing a restriction that was preventing (notably) British families with teenagers from visiting because the UK does not give two vaccine doses to under-18s.
Re: International travel
Posted: Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:28 am
by bjn
sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 10:28 am
On a practical note, Spain has just announced that 12-17 year olds who are not fully vaccinated will be allowed in with a negative test from Monday, thus removing a restriction that was preventing (notably) British families with teenagers from visiting because the UK does not give two vaccine doses to under-18s.
GAHHHHHHHHH!!!!!! We missed out on our "MrsBJN got better from cancer and let's go somewhere warm for the first time in bl..dy years" holiday because of that.
Also, the BJNlettes are due to be double vaxxed in the coming month.
GAHHHHHH.
/sigh
Re: International travel
Posted: Sat Feb 12, 2022 8:17 pm
by Herainestold
Chris Preston wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 9:07 am
Herainestold wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:40 am
WFJ wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 11:24 pm
In Germany the current discussions are over whether all restrictions should be removed in late March.
I am pretty sure by Easter there will be a new variant anyway.
However, a new variant may not be sufficiently infective to be a problem. For a new variant to be competitive against omicron, it needs to be more infective than omicron. There is increasingly little space for this to occur.
From the beginning of the pandemic it took roughly 12 months for the alpha and delta variants to arise. After that roughly 12 months for the omicron variant to arise. The other variants mostly did not become world wide.
The other characteristic a new variant could have to be successful is to have the ability to infect previously infected with omicron.
Given how widespread omicron has become, any new variant will be a variant of omicron.
The next variant will be more transmissible than Omicron, or it won't be the next variant. I remember reading that that it was unlikely that the virus could mutate to be more transmissible than Delta, and then came Omicron.
Omicron is by far the least virulent variant, so odds are the next one will be more virulent. Delta virulence and Omicron transmissibility would be a nightmare.
Re-infections are going to be the norm. Typically corona viruses can reinfect people every year. Immunity is short lived, on the scale of months.
"Reinfections are not just possible, they're pretty much inevitable," says evolutionary biologist Jeffrey Townsend at Yale University. "At least all the evidence that we have now says that that's true."
To estimate how often reinfections will occur with SARS-CoV-2, Townsend and his team have been studying four other coronaviruses. They are known as "seasonal coronaviruses" and cause about 30% of colds each year.
"They all infect and reinfect on a yearly timescale," he says, "so there's no reason to expect something different from SARS-CoV-2."
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... ium=social
Re: International travel
Posted: Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:13 pm
by Millennie Al
Herainestold wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 8:17 pm
Typically corona viruses can reinfect people every year. Immunity is short lived, on the scale of months.
And what you fail to mention is that typical coronaviruses are just colds - which used to be considered so mild that many people wouldn't even take time off work for them.