COVID-19 in the United States

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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Herainestold
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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by Herainestold » Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:18 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:35 pm
blow: jabs not delivered
In the US, 229,398,685 doses have been distributed so far, with 76% or 174,879,716 of the doses used.
So that leaves about 50 million doses "in the freezer"..

https://usafacts.org/visualizations/cov ... er-states/
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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by dyqik » Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:24 am

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:18 pm
shpalman wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:35 pm
blow: jabs not delivered
In the US, 229,398,685 doses have been distributed so far, with 76% or 174,879,716 of the doses used.
So that leaves about 50 million doses "in the freezer"..

https://usafacts.org/visualizations/cov ... er-states/
The US is following the correct vaccination protocol and saving second doses for issue 3-4 weeks after first doses, which accounts for a chunk of that*. The ability of states to put doses into arms is a second issue.

Finally, you should expect about 10% wastage of vaccines - vials opened where the last dose can't be given because a recipient can't be found, or because the delivery syringes can't get the sixth and final dose out of some of the vials (there's 17% wastage immediately), people not keeping appointments, and replacements but being able to be found in time, etc. This means that it's unlikely that all those doses are actually in the freezer. Many will have been wasted, which is unavoidable in any brand new enterprise of this scale.

At one point, the last of those factors was made worse by states that fined or took doses away from areas/doctors that gave spare doses to people not on the priority list. I think most have relented on that now.

* Not that the full number of doses required for that are being saved, but some are, to account for fluctuations in the delivery schedule to each area.

Herainestold
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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by Herainestold » Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:55 pm

America is really good at a number of things. Producing huge number s of thermonuclear weapons. Building interstate motorways across the nation.
Making industrial quantities of vaccines.

EU countries waiting for 1 or 2 million doses of Pfizer and America has 50 million ready to go.

Is wastage really 10%? That seems like a lot.

I understand why they have such a big stockpile, they are vaccinating at a tremendous rate and they will use those doses.
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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by shpalman » Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:01 pm

molto tricky

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by dyqik » Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:41 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:55 pm
Is wastage really 10%? That seems like a lot.
That seems pretty low, tbh. Remember, there are no established logistics for this operation, and no national health service to rely on.

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by Herainestold » Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:36 am

dyqik wrote:
Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:41 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:55 pm
Is wastage really 10%? That seems like a lot.
That seems pretty low, tbh. Remember, there are no established logistics for this operation, and no national health service to rely on.
Is there any data on it? When I google it, I get stories about 1000 doses here, 200 doses there, but no hard figures on percentages.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by Herainestold » Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:45 pm

Even vaccinated people can die of Covid. Extremely important to keep other measures in place, masking, distancing, isolation and quarantine.
An unvaccinated health care worker set off a Covid-19 outbreak at a nursing home in Kentucky where the vast majority of residents had been vaccinated, leading to dozens of infections, including 22 cases among residents and employees who were already fully vaccinated, a new study reported Wednesday.

Most of those who were infected with the coronavirus despite being vaccinated did not develop symptoms or require hospitalization, but one vaccinated individual, who was a resident of the nursing home, died, according to the study released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/21/heal ... tions.html
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by tom p » Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:15 am

I wonder if the LAPD would have just stood about had the protestors not been caucasian.

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by shpalman » Tue Jun 08, 2021 2:23 pm

Washington state is to give adults a free cannabis spliff after they receive a Covid jab in an attempt to accelerate vaccination uptake.
The state also recently instituted plans to allow a free beer, wine or cocktail to residents with proof of vaccination, the Washington Post reports.
molto tricky

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Sciolus
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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by Sciolus » Tue Jun 08, 2021 3:48 pm

Huh. All I got was a sticker. Not even a lollipop for being a brave boy.

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by monkey » Wed Jul 21, 2021 6:27 pm

So the Delta Variant is now the predominant one in the US, we're catching up!

Where I am still only 35% of people are fully vaccinated and still less than 50% have had at least one shot (might be more if you exclude children from the population count). Cases and hospitalisations are on the up, after being at a minima last month. I am expecting deaths to start rising soon, but it might be a while before we notice, they can be slow at reporting.

It's not looking good from where I'm sitting. I think there is a good chance the hospitals get overwhelmed. Nearly happened last winter, and there were mask laws and whatnot back then.

At least Fauci telling Rand Paul to f.ck off (in nicer terms, because it was a senate hearing) cheered me up a bit - "Senator Paul, you do not know what you are talking about ... if anyone here is lying it is you". Rand Paul's such a nobend.

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by bolo » Wed Jul 21, 2021 6:50 pm

Cases are definitely ticking up, but vaccine effectiveness still appears to be very high.

In Virginia, about 53% of the population is now fully vaccinated (mostly meaning 14+ days after second Pfizer or Moderna, plus a few 14+ days after single J&J).

Cases among the fully vaccinated are nonzero, but rare enough to be almost invisible on a graph.

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source

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by lpm » Wed Jul 21, 2021 6:58 pm

But that's because the 50% unvacc overwhelms the 50% vacc in the stats.

The vacc population still catches it at the standard rate.

It'll be the same equation as the Uk's 60% of cases from 15% unvacc population, 40% from 85% vacc population. It's a bit of an illusion that currently makes Americans think the risk to vaccinated people is very low - just a product of maths for a poorly vaccinated country.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:00 pm

monkey wrote:
Wed Jul 21, 2021 6:27 pm
So the Delta Variant is now the predominant one in the US, we're catching up!

Where I am still only 35% of people are fully vaccinated and still less than 50% have had at least one shot (might be more if you exclude children from the population count). Cases and hospitalisations are on the up, after being at a minima last month. I am expecting deaths to start rising soon, but it might be a while before we notice, they can be slow at reporting.

It's not looking good from where I'm sitting. I think there is a good chance the hospitals get overwhelmed. Nearly happened last winter, and there were mask laws and whatnot back then.

At least Fauci telling Rand Paul to f.ck off (in nicer terms, because it was a senate hearing) cheered me up a bit - "Senator Paul, you do not know what you are talking about ... if anyone here is lying it is you". Rand Paul's such a nobend.
Yes, some more here on the slow pace of vaccination
Vaccinations have fallen off a cliff

We are now administering about 500K shots a day -- half of them 2nd shots

At this rate, it'll take about another year to get to 80% fully vaccinated
https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1 ... 95360?s=21

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by bolo » Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:32 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Jul 21, 2021 6:58 pm
It'll be the same equation as the Uk's 60% of cases from 15% unvacc population, 40% from 85% vacc population.
Those numbers imply that the UK's vaccinated population is (60/15)/(40/85) = 8.5 times less likely to catch it.

In Virginia, in the past month, there have been 416 cases in fully vaccinated people and 15,018 in the rest of the population. (source again) At about 50-50 fully vaccinated versus not, that means the fully vaccinated population is 15,018/416 = 36 times less likely to catch it.

So vaccination looks a lot better here, if your numbers are correct. Maybe this is the mRNA vaccines being more effective than the Astra Zeneca? Or maybe your UK numbers for vaccinated cases include people who are only partially vaccinated?

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by monkey » Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:54 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:00 pm
Yes, some more here on the slow pace of vaccination
Vaccinations have fallen off a cliff

We are now administering about 500K shots a day -- half of them 2nd shots

At this rate, it'll take about another year to get to 80% fully vaccinated
https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1 ... 95360?s=21
It will take longer than that in this state, if it ever gets that high. My back of the fag packet estimate is 2.5 -3 years. Population is about 5 million, so they need to give out about 8 million doses. They've done 3.3 million. So about 5 million left, but they're now only doing about 5,000 /day. 1000 days is 2.7 years.

ETA: vaccine rate at the peak was ~50,000 /day, I remember thinking "Awesome, we'll be done by autumn, if they can keep the supplies comming."

I think I said earlier that we're the ones who are going to f.ck it up for everyone else.

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lpm
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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by lpm » Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:06 pm

bolo wrote:
Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:32 pm
lpm wrote:
Wed Jul 21, 2021 6:58 pm
It'll be the same equation as the Uk's 60% of cases from 15% unvacc population, 40% from 85% vacc population.
Those numbers imply that the UK's vaccinated population is (60/15)/(40/85) = 8.5 times less likely to catch it.

In Virginia, in the past month, there have been 416 cases in fully vaccinated people and 15,018 in the rest of the population. (source again) At about 50-50 fully vaccinated versus not, that means the fully vaccinated population is 15,018/416 = 36 times less likely to catch it.

So vaccination looks a lot better here, if your numbers are correct. Maybe this is the mRNA vaccines being more effective than the Astra Zeneca? Or maybe your UK numbers for vaccinated cases include people who are only partially vaccinated?
I muddled up different things and was wrong to say the figures were cases, should have said hospitalization. We have no stats on cases numbers by vacc status. But we have exact figures for hospital admissions.

The 60 unvacc / 40 vacc came from Patrick Vallance the other day.
Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.
Obvs admissions will be strongly biased to old people, who are 95% double jabbed, whereas UK cases are currently strongly biased to children and 18-30 who are zero or one dose vaccinated.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by jdc » Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:14 pm

I've been rendered redundant by lpm's return. I was going to say something about how people are generally lumping 1- and 2-dosers in together in UK things that I've read, note that Vallance said 60% of covid hospital admissions "unvaccinated" and witter on about how someone called ZOE COVID reckons 53% of cases are in the unvaccinated (versus 47% with either one or two doses): https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-half ... ?r=US&IR=T (from the latter, there's a graph of positivity rates in un/partly/fully vaccinated).

Image

Not much point now, though.

P.S. England 18+ were at 87% 1-dose and 67% 2-dose last time I looked.

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by Herainestold » Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:28 pm

87/67 % vaxed and Delta is still spreading like wildfire.
There is no level of vax that will stop this on its own. We need other measures.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by lpm » Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:27 pm

And in the UK we have other measures.

Mainly schools closed. Also working from home.

Plus good level of masks, distancing, outdoor life, and reduced social activity.

The US is worse for all of those? Plus poor vaccination numbers.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by Herainestold » Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:38 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:27 pm
And in the UK we have other measures.

Mainly schools closed. Also working from home.

Plus good level of masks, distancing, outdoor life, and reduced social activity.

The US is worse for all of those? Plus poor vaccination numbers.
I don't know. I'm not worried about them. I'm worried about us.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by monkey » Wed Jul 21, 2021 11:02 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:27 pm
And in the UK we have other measures.

Mainly schools closed. Also working from home.

Plus good level of masks, distancing, outdoor life, and reduced social activity.

The US is worse for all of those? Plus poor vaccination numbers.
Depends where you are.

When it comes to rules, The Feds can only really make recommendations (outside of things that are theirs, like Amtrak, the VA and Washington DC). The States can ignore the Feds and set their own rules and make their own recomendations, but so can cities and counties if Their State allows them to. So you can end up with a whole bunch of different rules even over short distances. This means that some places will have been doing the right thing and other places haven't and it may be difficult to generalise over the whole country.

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by bolo » Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:41 am

lpm wrote:
Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:06 pm
I muddled up different things and was wrong to say the figures were cases, should have said hospitalization.
FWIW, the Virginia numbers for hospitalizations during the same period, from the same source, are 804 hospitalizations not fully vaccinated, 32 hospitalizations fully vaccinated, so 804/32 = 22.3 times less likely to be hospitalized. So still quite different from the UK numbers. Also 148 deaths not fully vaccinated, 2 fully vaccinated, so 74 times less likely to die (with a lot of uncertainty given that 2 is a small number).
monkey wrote:
Wed Jul 21, 2021 11:02 pm
Depends where you are.
Indeed. And on top of the US-UK differences that lpm mentioned with respect to closures, social distancing, and masking, there are differences in the age profile of who has been vaccinated. For example, in my county, where 63% of all resident are at least partially vaccinated, that includes 71% of residents aged 12-17.

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by bolo » Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:43 am

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:38 pm
I don't know. I'm not worried about them. I'm worried about us.
If you don't know and don't care, then perhaps you shouldn't waste your time in this thread?

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by Millennie Al » Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:49 am

bolo wrote:
Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:32 pm
Those numbers imply that the UK's vaccinated population is (60/15)/(40/85) = 8.5 times less likely to catch it.

In Virginia, in the past month, there have been 416 cases in fully vaccinated people and 15,018 in the rest of the population. (source again) At about 50-50 fully vaccinated versus not, that means the fully vaccinated population is 15,018/416 = 36 times less likely to catch it.
However, the data cannot be used like that. If you look at the vaccine trials you'll find that the unvaccinated control group caught the disease at a far lower rate than the general population. This is because people who volunteer for such studies are not representative. Similarly, once vaccines are widely offered to the public, those who get vaccinated are significantly different than those who don't, so you cannot draw conclusions that say the vaccination was the cause of a subsequent difference which has been observed.
Covid-19 - Don't catch it: don't spread it.

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