Page 1 of 2

Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:29 am
by jimbob
https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013
Michael Levitt
@MLevitt_NP2013
Stanford Prof. of Biophysics, Cambridge PhD and DSc, 2013 Chemistry Nobel Laureate (complex systems), FRS & US National Academy member, I code well for my age.
United Statesmed.stanford.edu/levitt.htmlJoined September 2016
He seems to be playing from the Global Warming denier playbook
Levitt1.PNG
Levitt1.PNG (39.18 KiB) Viewed 1366 times
Levitt2.PNG
Levitt2.PNG (47.35 KiB) Viewed 1366 times

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:23 pm
by bagpuss
Yes Michael, that's right, and all those charts showing excess deaths far higher than any winter flu season, those are just made up for fun, as well.

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:35 pm
by FlammableFlower
bagpuss wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:23 pm
Yes Michael, that's right, and all those charts showing excess deaths far higher than any winter flu season, those are just made up for fun, as well.
Exactly! All those people died, they just happened to have COVID... it definitely didn't contribute in any way to them dying...

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:40 pm
by Bird on a Fire
FlammableFlower wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:35 pm
bagpuss wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:23 pm
Yes Michael, that's right, and all those charts showing excess deaths far higher than any winter flu season, those are just made up for fun, as well.
Exactly! All those people died, they just happened to have COVID... it definitely didn't contribute in any way to them dying...
It's just because of all the extra testing. In a normal year we can only distinguish between who's alive and who's dead in extreme cases of death. This year, all of the dead people are getting recorded in the government figures.

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:29 pm
by sTeamTraen
FlammableFlower wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:35 pm
bagpuss wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:23 pm
Yes Michael, that's right, and all those charts showing excess deaths far higher than any winter flu season, those are just made up for fun, as well.
Exactly! All those people died, they just happened to have COVID... it definitely didn't contribute in any way to them dying...
And amazingly, all those people with stage 4 cancer and advanced COPD, y'know, the ones who were going to die early, all went to big public gatherings in the first half of March. Presumably they knew they were going to die early and wanted to tick off a visit to Cheltenham or a Stereophonics gig from the bucket list.

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:12 pm
by jimbob
FlammableFlower wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:35 pm
bagpuss wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:23 pm
Yes Michael, that's right, and all those charts showing excess deaths far higher than any winter flu season, those are just made up for fun, as well.
Exactly! All those people died, they just happened to have COVID... it definitely didn't contribute in any way to them dying...
I've got some nice graphs about excess deaths etc in this thread, from my currently-pinned tweet:

https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status/12 ... 14240?s=20

And for the excess deaths thing, the "lockdown skeptics" don't seem to explain why, if the deaths are due to the lockdown not the virus, they peak just after the lockdown and then fall, even as the lockdown continues.

Or how second waves happen - if burnout is a thing.

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:12 am
by bagpuss
jimbob wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:12 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:35 pm
bagpuss wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:23 pm
Yes Michael, that's right, and all those charts showing excess deaths far higher than any winter flu season, those are just made up for fun, as well.
Exactly! All those people died, they just happened to have COVID... it definitely didn't contribute in any way to them dying...
I've got some nice graphs about excess deaths etc in this thread, from my currently-pinned tweet:

https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status/12 ... 14240?s=20

And for the excess deaths thing, the "lockdown skeptics" don't seem to explain why, if the deaths are due to the lockdown not the virus, they peak just after the lockdown and then fall, even as the lockdown continues.

Or how second waves happen - if burnout is a thing.
Hang on - there are people claiming that lockdown has caused the excess deaths? How exactly are they explaining that one? I mean, I can understand there will be lockdown-caused additional deaths, for a variety of reasons, but only in numbers that ought to be at least mostly compensated for by a reduction in deaths due to fewer accidents, etc.

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:40 am
by jimbob
bagpuss wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:12 am
jimbob wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:12 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:35 pm

Exactly! All those people died, they just happened to have COVID... it definitely didn't contribute in any way to them dying...
I've got some nice graphs about excess deaths etc in this thread, from my currently-pinned tweet:

https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status/12 ... 14240?s=20

And for the excess deaths thing, the "lockdown skeptics" don't seem to explain why, if the deaths are due to the lockdown not the virus, they peak just after the lockdown and then fall, even as the lockdown continues.

Or how second waves happen - if burnout is a thing.
Hang on - there are people claiming that lockdown has caused the excess deaths? How exactly are they explaining that one? I mean, I can understand there will be lockdown-caused additional deaths, for a variety of reasons, but only in numbers that ought to be at least mostly compensated for by a reduction in deaths due to fewer accidents, etc.
In reply to my posting of the excess deaths in April, compared to their claim that there weere 50k deaths due to the 2017-2018 winter flu season
stunned.PNG
stunned.PNG (132.09 KiB) Viewed 1171 times
To be fair, I was indeed stunned by his claim.

If you want to find idiocy, look for the #KBF hashtag, which I think is "keep Britain free"

https://twitter.com/EndUKLockdown1/stat ... 68896?s=20


UK Lockdown Sceptic #KBF
@EndUKLockdown1
·
Jun 8
Many of those due to lockdown and the mass murder that has occurred in care homes by sending Covid patients back into them.

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:50 am
by Gentleman Jim
Originally from a Global Warming protest, it has been seen since re Covid
Why should we go to school if you won't listen to the educated

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:41 pm
by JQH
jimbob wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:40 am

UK Lockdown Sceptic #KBF
@EndUKLockdown1
·
Jun 8
Many of those due to lockdown and the mass murder that has occurred in care homes by sending Covid patients back into them.
Isn't that kind of admitting that Covid does in fact kill people?

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:50 pm
by jimbob
JQH wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:41 pm
jimbob wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:40 am

UK Lockdown Sceptic #KBF
@EndUKLockdown1
·
Jun 8
Many of those due to lockdown and the mass murder that has occurred in care homes by sending Covid patients back into them.
Isn't that kind of admitting that Covid does in fact kill people?
Sadly, it seems to be a common idea that old people don't count

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:10 pm
by Gentleman Jim
https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/04/10/mi ... else-14706
Q: Where do you go to find overpaid, under-sane professors, talking about chemistry when they know nothing about it?
A: MIT, the home of Dr. Stephanie Seneff, who has spent a career making up nonsense about glyphosate. And she's outdone herself this time: Glyphosate causes COVID. Nope, not kidding.

A "colleague" of yours, dyqik? ;)

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:23 pm
by Little waster
jimbob wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:40 am
look for the #KBF hashtag, which I think is "keep Britain free"
Kentucky Boiled Fowl - KFC's less-successful sister company.

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:36 pm
by bob sterman
So now someone from the "Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM)" thinks it's time to engage the public with an unusual theory, that he's put together based on the Barcelona sewage pre-print...

Expert: Covid-19 may have been dormant around the world before emerging in China
https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/the-c ... professor/

What on earth does "lying dormant" mean for a virus like SARS-CoV-2 that needs a host to replicate??? E.g. in the UK? Hanging around in some blokes guy until he decides to go to a business conference in the Far East, or maybe go skiing?

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:23 pm
by jimbob
bagpuss wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:12 am
jimbob wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:12 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:35 pm

Exactly! All those people died, they just happened to have COVID... it definitely didn't contribute in any way to them dying...
I've got some nice graphs about excess deaths etc in this thread, from my currently-pinned tweet:

https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status/12 ... 14240?s=20

And for the excess deaths thing, the "lockdown skeptics" don't seem to explain why, if the deaths are due to the lockdown not the virus, they peak just after the lockdown and then fall, even as the lockdown continues.

Or how second waves happen - if burnout is a thing.
Hang on - there are people claiming that lockdown has caused the excess deaths? How exactly are they explaining that one? I mean, I can understand there will be lockdown-caused additional deaths, for a variety of reasons, but only in numbers that ought to be at least mostly compensated for by a reduction in deaths due to fewer accidents, etc.
Yes, have at this if you want to prod dangerous fools.

https://twitter.com/ragnar_lives/status ... 34816?s=20

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:57 pm
by jimbob
I see Matt Le Tissier has jumped onto that idea that it's no worse than flu.


https://twitter.com/mattletiss7/status/ ... 3770431489


He was also pushing the Corbett Report on vaccines.

Rationalwiki isn't flattering: https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/James_Cor ... ett_Report

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:04 pm
by shpalman

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:19 am
by OneOffDave
Slightly related to the increased excess deaths figures, we are seeing far far fewer outbreaks of other infectious diseases across England probably as a combination of the lockdown, better hand hygiene and less international travel. So it's not those that are killing people.

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:22 am
by jimbob
OneOffDave wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:19 am
Slightly related to the increased excess deaths figures, we are seeing far far fewer outbreaks of other infectious diseases across England probably as a combination of the lockdown, better hand hygiene and less international travel. So it's not those that are killing people.
Yup. Who would have thought it.

I've now come across someone who keeps spamming with a Telegraph article that lockdown *has* killed 21000 people already.

It's odd that it doesn't show up in the excess deaths statistics - unless lockdown happened to kill people just as COVID was, and then declined before lockdown ended.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... y-experts/

No I'm not going to register to read it. Because, unless it's vastly different from the headline - it's rubbish

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:01 pm
by bob sterman
Who needs doctors, virologists and epidemiologists...

...when you've got a sociologist ready to tell you to "calm down, calm down"?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ction.html

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Sun Aug 02, 2020 7:32 pm
by jimbob
bob sterman wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:01 pm
Who needs doctors, virologists and epidemiologists...

...when you've got a sociologist ready to tell you to "calm down, calm down"?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ction.html
Alternatively he could just check up with some actuaries to see that he's talking rubbish, and it's more like a decade on average.

https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status/12 ... 1175044096
The BBC Radio4 programme "More or Less" looked at the idea that those who died would have died soon anyway, and this doesn't look to be the case. They gave previous examples of previous events this did and didn't happen.

https://twitter.com/BBCMoreOrLess/statu ... 1277390850
Or Australia

https://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/12 ... 9191858178

Dr Zoë Hyde
@DrZoeHyde
On average, #COVID19 was associated with 14 years of life lost (YLL) for males, and 11 years for females in Australia.

This is larger than most of the major causes of death, including heart disease. CV19 is associated with substantial premature mortality.

https://t.co/xO1ujs3PHf?amp=1

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:03 pm
by jimbob
Here's another -

https://wmbriggs.com/post/30606/

Yes - apparently if this happened in 1830, (or to be fair to the author, 1950) we mightn't spot COVID-19 as such a severe event.

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:50 am
by warumich
bob sterman wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:01 pm
Who needs doctors, virologists and epidemiologists...

...when you've got a sociologist ready to tell you to "calm down, calm down"?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ction.html
Apologies for getting a bit sensitive on this but Dingwall is a sociologist specialised on public health, and quite a distinguished one too as far as I know, so he's not exactly speaking outside of his expertise here, as you are implying. He'll certainly know a damn sight more about public health policy than your average doctor or biologist.

None of that makes his views correct of course. I'd ordinarily warn to be careful with a daily mail write up of an expert's opinion, but it appears these actually are his thoughts. It's certainly not something I have heard from any of the other public health sociologists I know, so he appears to be a bit of an outlier, like economists for Brexit or the 1% of climate scientists that the "99% consensus" argument implies must exist. But attacking his expertise is the wrong way to argue this

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2020 5:59 am
by bob sterman
warumich wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:50 am
bob sterman wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:01 pm
Who needs doctors, virologists and epidemiologists...

...when you've got a sociologist ready to tell you to "calm down, calm down"?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ction.html
Apologies for getting a bit sensitive on this but Dingwall is a sociologist specialised on public health, and quite a distinguished one too as far as I know, so he's not exactly speaking outside of his expertise here, as you are implying. He'll certainly know a damn sight more about public health policy than your average doctor or biologist.
Yes - sorry. He has a lot of relevant expertise. However, I would say he's drifted outside his area of expertise by commenting on biological features of the virus, transmission mechanisms, and lethality.

And, I would say - in the middle of a pandemic - choosing to write a column for the Daily Express in which he specifically says "It is time to stop 'following the science' " is reckless.

Incidentally, back in May Dingwall was publicly arguing against the 2 metre social distancing rule, and also arguing against even merely "encouraging" everyone to wear masks. He has also publicly criticised the mathematical modelling used by Sage claiming it was "flawed".

He was engaging the public (Express again) with the claim that the virus couldn't infect people over a distance of more than one metre...

"The new data shows it is broken up over a shorter space and those particles that do travel are not in infectious quantities at one metre."

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/he ... s-research

I think this is pretty clearly outside his area of expertise - and turned out to be wrong (e.g. data from a German meat-processing plant has shown transmission over much longer distances via aerosol).

Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2020 6:23 am
by bob sterman
P.S. Even back in April he was already arguing for pubs reopening and on March 24th wrote an article in the Telegraph headlined...

"Lockdown is another triumph of populism over science". Yes - on March 24th.

I haven't posted all the links but if you search the Google News archive you'll see his public engagement consists of arguing against masks, social distancing, lockdown in general, pub and school closures in particular etc since March.