Back to school

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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AMS
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Re: Back to school

Post by AMS » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:26 pm

Also, I'm not sure what happens immunologically if you are exposed to two respiratory viruses at once, especially if the cold is first. The nasal mucus caused by the cold is a massive barrier to infection for a start, and the innate immune reaction will kick off an adaptive response that could also spot the other infection earlier than it would otherwise.

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bolo
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Re: Back to school

Post by bolo » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:02 pm

bagpuss wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:22 am
bolo wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 8:40 pm
BoloJr went back to school this week, all remote. And now the school district has been attacked by ransomware. Nice.
https://www.fcps.edu/blog/fcps-statemen ... estigation
bl..dy hell, that's stooping low. Hope it's sorted fairly briskly.
Yes it is, and thanks. The latest is that in addition to encrypting data and holding it for ransom, they extracted some sensitive documents and have started releasing them a few at a time to ramp up the extortion pressure. Starting with "letters regarding disciplinary action against 15 students."

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Re: Back to school

Post by jdc » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:27 pm

AMS wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:18 pm
jimbob wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:10 am

Oh, no you didn't - my point was that sneezing is inherently an activity that is high risk of spreading COVID-19. As such, we should be more paranoid about it.

And that if someone has caught a cold, it's a tracer to show that they haven't been completely effective in their isolation.
They're not identical in how they spread though. Rhinoviruses can last a long time on surfaces (weeks?), and because they make you snotty, are possibly more effective it spreading this way than covid is. I'm struggling to find a scientific link, but I found an infographic from the guardian (dating from the Ebola outbreak in W Africa) putting colds as having an R0 of ~6.

It's a fair point about coinfection helping spread covid though.
I think Squeak posted something a while back showing that in aus rhinoviruses were basically last to die down on locking down and first to reappear on unlocking. This was iirc explained (at least in part) by rhinoviruses having a protein coating instead of a fatty coating and this protein shell being less prone to bursting on contact with something soapy/detergenty.

Wiki reckons a basic reproduction number of 2-3 for the common cold and the reference is to a Telegraph article on Ebola: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

This https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5782908/ refers to human rhinovirus C "a basic reproductive number (R0) for the [chimp] epidemic as 1.83, consistent with the common cold in humans"

This https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv ... 4.full.pdf has 1.2 to 1.83 as the estimated min-max range for rhinovirus but then it shows an average of 1.88 so I think something's slightly wrong there.

Not found anything higher than Wiki's 2-3 so far.

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jimbob
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Re: Back to school

Post by jimbob » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:11 pm

jdc wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:27 pm
AMS wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:18 pm
jimbob wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:10 am

Oh, no you didn't - my point was that sneezing is inherently an activity that is high risk of spreading COVID-19. As such, we should be more paranoid about it.

And that if someone has caught a cold, it's a tracer to show that they haven't been completely effective in their isolation.
They're not identical in how they spread though. Rhinoviruses can last a long time on surfaces (weeks?), and because they make you snotty, are possibly more effective it spreading this way than covid is. I'm struggling to find a scientific link, but I found an infographic from the guardian (dating from the Ebola outbreak in W Africa) putting colds as having an R0 of ~6.

It's a fair point about coinfection helping spread covid though.
I think Squeak posted something a while back showing that in aus rhinoviruses were basically last to die down on locking down and first to reappear on unlocking. This was iirc explained (at least in part) by rhinoviruses having a protein coating instead of a fatty coating and this protein shell being less prone to bursting on contact with something soapy/detergenty.

Wiki reckons a basic reproduction number of 2-3 for the common cold and the reference is to a Telegraph article on Ebola: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

This https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5782908/ refers to human rhinovirus C "a basic reproductive number (R0) for the [chimp] epidemic as 1.83, consistent with the common cold in humans"

This https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv ... 4.full.pdf has 1.2 to 1.83 as the estimated min-max range for rhinovirus but then it shows an average of 1.88 so I think something's slightly wrong there.

Not found anything higher than Wiki's 2-3 so far.
Thanks - at least COVID-19 seems to be pretty fragile
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Back to school

Post by badger » Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:42 am

bagpuss wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:56 pm
badger wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:11 pm
mediocrity511 wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:56 am


Depressingly, I can see it going the other way. Kids with coughs can attend schools so long as they don't have a temperature too. They're blaming the testing fiasco on people testing kids for "sniffles", seemingly without realising the overlap between covid19 watchlist symptoms and colds, particularly with young kids who spike a fever with any bug.
Are they? That's not on. A child either has the watchlist symptoms or they don't. Sniffles isn't a symptom, but a fever is. If they need to adjust the watchlist symptoms in time and by age, then bring it on.
Yes, they are, or at least Radio 4 was reporting that. I haven't been able to find a source online to link to though. What I have realised from my searches though is that technically we should be trying to get the bagkitten tested as she did have a slightly high temp yesterday. I thought you were supposed to get tested if it went over a certain level but it seems I was wrong - the rules just say a high temp. So no wonder the testing services are being swamped. But does 37.5 technically count as high anyway? It's high for her but it's probably just about within normal ranges.

I now feel slightly guilty for not trying to get her tested, even though I'm approximately 99.9999999999999% sure it's a common cold, especially as I have it too. But I'd probably feel even guiltier for trying to get her a test when the system is overwhelmed and I'm so sure it's just a cold. bl..dy parental guilt.
Aye, parental guilt is a familiar friend.

The Head of our primary has, to their credit, put a number on it. This at least avoids the "What is high?" question. Don't know where they got it from, but seems reasonable to me.
COVID-19 Symptoms

As detailed in my recent newsletter, we are unable to admit children into school who display any one or more of these symptoms:

· a high temperature – this means a temperature of 37.8 or above; you feel hot to touch on your chest or back

· a new, continuous cough – this means coughing a lot for more than an hour, or 3 or more coughing episodes in 24 hours (if you usually have a cough, it may be worse than usual)

· a loss or change to your sense of smell or taste – this means you've noticed you cannot smell or taste anything, or things smell or taste different to normal

If you or your child are displaying any of these symptoms, please do not come to school.

Please arrange for a COVID-19 test to be taken and only bring your child to school once you have received a negative test result. The quickest way to obtain your test result is to attend a drive-through test centre, the nearest of which is sited [10 miles across London]. Results from the test centres usually take only 24 hours, while home test kits can take up to and over a week.

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Re: Back to school

Post by bagpuss » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:04 am

badger wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:42 am
bagpuss wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:56 pm
badger wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:11 pm


Are they? That's not on. A child either has the watchlist symptoms or they don't. Sniffles isn't a symptom, but a fever is. If they need to adjust the watchlist symptoms in time and by age, then bring it on.
Yes, they are, or at least Radio 4 was reporting that. I haven't been able to find a source online to link to though. What I have realised from my searches though is that technically we should be trying to get the bagkitten tested as she did have a slightly high temp yesterday. I thought you were supposed to get tested if it went over a certain level but it seems I was wrong - the rules just say a high temp. So no wonder the testing services are being swamped. But does 37.5 technically count as high anyway? It's high for her but it's probably just about within normal ranges.

I now feel slightly guilty for not trying to get her tested, even though I'm approximately 99.9999999999999% sure it's a common cold, especially as I have it too. But I'd probably feel even guiltier for trying to get her a test when the system is overwhelmed and I'm so sure it's just a cold. bl..dy parental guilt.
Aye, parental guilt is a familiar friend.

The Head of our primary has, to their credit, put a number on it. This at least avoids the "What is high?" question. Don't know where they got it from, but seems reasonable to me.
COVID-19 Symptoms

As detailed in my recent newsletter, we are unable to admit children into school who display any one or more of these symptoms:

· a high temperature – this means a temperature of 37.8 or above; you feel hot to touch on your chest or back

· a new, continuous cough – this means coughing a lot for more than an hour, or 3 or more coughing episodes in 24 hours (if you usually have a cough, it may be worse than usual)

· a loss or change to your sense of smell or taste – this means you've noticed you cannot smell or taste anything, or things smell or taste different to normal

If you or your child are displaying any of these symptoms, please do not come to school.

Please arrange for a COVID-19 test to be taken and only bring your child to school once you have received a negative test result. The quickest way to obtain your test result is to attend a drive-through test centre, the nearest of which is sited [10 miles across London]. Results from the test centres usually take only 24 hours, while home test kits can take up to and over a week.
Thank you for that. That eases the guilt as her temp didn't get that high.

I'm pretty sure I had that number lurking in the back of my head from having read it somewhere. Probably (as school has been less helpful) in the stuff from the childminder, now that I think about it.

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JQH
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Re: Back to school

Post by JQH » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:05 am

I think I've seen that on an NHS page
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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shpalman
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Re: Back to school

Post by shpalman » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:17 am

The rule is 37.5°C here.
molto tricky

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bob sterman
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Re: Back to school

Post by bob sterman » Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:38 am

AMS wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:18 pm
It's a fair point about coinfection helping spread covid though.
Possible - but the opposite could be possible too. Remember the early cluster around "Steve" in the French Alps?

A child in the ski chalet was coinfected with SARS-CoV-2, picornavirus and influenza A. Went to school and ski club.

All traced (n = 172) community contacts (e.g. school and ski club) tested negative for SARS-CoV-2. While some tested positive for influenza (mostly A) and picornavirus.

Cluster of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the French Alps, February 2020

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/71/15/825/5819060

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Re: Back to school

Post by Stupidosaurus » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:48 am

Based on some personal experience with body temperature analysis, adding one and a half standard deviations to your average body temperature might be a good threshold for spotting a fever, although that's based on a day/night variation range. Not many (sane) people record their kid's temperature when they're well, though.

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Re: Back to school

Post by Squeak » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:49 am

jdc wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:27 pm

I think Squeak posted something a while back showing that in aus rhinoviruses were basically last to die down on locking down and first to reappear on unlocking. This was iirc explained (at least in part) by rhinoviruses having a protein coating instead of a fatty coating and this protein shell being less prone to bursting on contact with something soapy/detergenty.

Wiki reckons a basic reproduction number of 2-3 for the common cold and the reference is to a Telegraph article on Ebola: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

This https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5782908/ refers to human rhinovirus C "a basic reproductive number (R0) for the [chimp] epidemic as 1.83, consistent with the common cold in humans"

This https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv ... 4.full.pdf has 1.2 to 1.83 as the estimated min-max range for rhinovirus but then it shows an average of 1.88 so I think something's slightly wrong there.

Not found anything higher than Wiki's 2-3 so far.
Was it this?

Obviously, comparisons of the rates of various little snotty diseases with other years are impossible because we don't normally bother doing nasal swabs and PCR tests. So you can't say how the current mix of viruses compares with "usual". And, obvs, this is treating from one private company in one state, but I haven't seen similar analyses from anywhere else.

And from the Australian flu tracking project, about 0.4% of respondents have a cough and fever this week, compared with a five year average of ~1.4%. Eyeballing the graph they sent me, it looks as though the "only" two-thirds drop in flu symptoms this week is because we're approaching spring, so the usual winter cold and flu season is coming to an end. In June and July, it was about a quarter of the usual rate.

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Re: Back to school

Post by jimbob » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:18 pm

Squeak wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:49 am
jdc wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:27 pm

I think Squeak posted something a while back showing that in aus rhinoviruses were basically last to die down on locking down and first to reappear on unlocking. This was iirc explained (at least in part) by rhinoviruses having a protein coating instead of a fatty coating and this protein shell being less prone to bursting on contact with something soapy/detergenty.

Wiki reckons a basic reproduction number of 2-3 for the common cold and the reference is to a Telegraph article on Ebola: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

This https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5782908/ refers to human rhinovirus C "a basic reproductive number (R0) for the [chimp] epidemic as 1.83, consistent with the common cold in humans"

This https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv ... 4.full.pdf has 1.2 to 1.83 as the estimated min-max range for rhinovirus but then it shows an average of 1.88 so I think something's slightly wrong there.

Not found anything higher than Wiki's 2-3 so far.
Was it this?

Obviously, comparisons of the rates of various little snotty diseases with other years are impossible because we don't normally bother doing nasal swabs and PCR tests. So you can't say how the current mix of viruses compares with "usual". And, obvs, this is treating from one private company in one state, but I haven't seen similar analyses from anywhere else.

And from the Australian flu tracking project, about 0.4% of respondents have a cough and fever this week, compared with a five year average of ~1.4%. Eyeballing the graph they sent me, it looks as though the "only" two-thirds drop in flu symptoms this week is because we're approaching spring, so the usual winter cold and flu season is coming to an end. In June and July, it was about a quarter of the usual rate.
Fixed your link
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Back to school

Post by Squeak » Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:28 pm

Thanks

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Re: Back to school

Post by badger » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:09 am

Oh, apparently we're due to be trialling a King's/ZOE app for schools, details sketchy, but you can add your kids to the app as it is currently, and they are desperately in need of more data (which I guess is why they're offering something to schools - or through schools to parents):

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/back-to-school

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Re: Back to school

Post by shpalman » Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:47 pm

Regional TV news says that there are 18 classes in quarantine (hundreds of individuals) so far in Lombardy, after a week of school. Five of these are in the city of Milan.

There's been a case in a school just up the road.
molto tricky

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Re: Back to school

Post by badger » Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:31 pm

badger wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:09 am
Oh, apparently we're due to be trialling a King's/ZOE app for schools, details sketchy, but you can add your kids to the app as it is currently, and they are desperately in need of more data (which I guess is why they're offering something to schools - or through schools to parents):

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/back-to-school
Update: Letter from School asking us to add our kids to the app, and then we can link them to specific school and bubble (which in this case is their class). I guess this helps school whilst also adding data to ZOE.

You can see how many in your children's bubbles are signed up (but not who), and also numbers for the whole school. Currently sitting at 1 and 3 for my two (out of 28ish in each bubble). Letter sent 3 days ago.

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Re: Back to school

Post by shpalman » Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:10 am

shpalman wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:47 pm
Regional TV news says that there are 18 classes in quarantine (hundreds of individuals) so far in Lombardy, after a week of school. Five of these are in the city of Milan.

There's been a case in a school just up the road.
Meanwhile 15 schools in Lincolnshire have had confirmed cases of Covid-19

A similar number, then.

Population of Lombardy: 10 million.

Population of Lincolnshire: 1 million.*

(* depends on whether you include North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire in Lincolnshire)
molto tricky

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Re: Back to school

Post by shpalman » Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:22 am

shpalman wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:10 am
shpalman wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:47 pm
Regional TV news says that there are 18 classes in quarantine (hundreds of individuals) so far in Lombardy, after a week of school. Five of these are in the city of Milan.

There's been a case in a school just up the road.
Meanwhile 15 schools in Lincolnshire have had confirmed cases of Covid-19

A similar number, then.

Population of Lombardy: 10 million.

Population of Lincolnshire: 1 million.*

(* depends on whether you include North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire in Lincolnshire)
So it's 12 schools in Lincolnshire Lincolnshire and three in Greater Lincolnshire ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2020/09/stu ... am-school/

The Robert Pattinson Academy doesn't appear to be named after the actor from Twilight.

ETA plus a college
molto tricky

badger
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Re: Back to school

Post by badger » Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:35 am

shpalman wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:22 am
shpalman wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:10 am
shpalman wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:47 pm
Regional TV news says that there are 18 classes in quarantine (hundreds of individuals) so far in Lombardy, after a week of school. Five of these are in the city of Milan.

There's been a case in a school just up the road.
Meanwhile 15 schools in Lincolnshire have had confirmed cases of Covid-19

A similar number, then.

Population of Lombardy: 10 million.

Population of Lincolnshire: 1 million.*

(* depends on whether you include North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire in Lincolnshire)
So it's 12 schools in Lincolnshire Lincolnshire and three in Greater Lincolnshire ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2020/09/stu ... am-school/

The Robert Pattinson Academy doesn't appear to be named after the actor from Twilight.

ETA plus a college
And only a couple of them closed, so will be interesting to see if any have an outbreak.

(RPatz may be batman but hasn't been knighted... yet)

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Re: Back to school

Post by mediocrity511 » Sun Sep 20, 2020 12:31 pm

Case in the nursery at miniocrity's school. Just been informed. Half her class have siblings in nursery, so unsure what to do given extremely clinically vulnerable Mr Miniocrity.

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Re: Back to school

Post by bagpuss » Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:44 am

mediocrity511 wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 12:31 pm
Case in the nursery at miniocrity's school. Just been informed. Half her class have siblings in nursery, so unsure what to do given extremely clinically vulnerable Mr Miniocrity.
Given extremely clinically vulnerable Mr Miniocrity, I would be strongly tempted to keep miniocrity off school for at least 2 weeks. And get her a test asap if at all possible (which it quite possibly isn't). Unless, of course, there is somewhere that Mr Miniocrity could stay more safely for a while but I'm assuming that's unlikely and, in any case, quite possibly undesirable.

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Re: Back to school

Post by shpalman » Mon Sep 21, 2020 11:53 am

badger wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:35 am
shpalman wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:22 am
shpalman wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:10 am

Meanwhile 15 schools in Lincolnshire have had confirmed cases of Covid-19

A similar number, then.

Population of Lombardy: 10 million.

Population of Lincolnshire: 1 million.*

(* depends on whether you include North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire in Lincolnshire)
So it's 12 schools in Lincolnshire Lincolnshire and three in Greater Lincolnshire ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2020/09/stu ... am-school/

The Robert Pattinson Academy doesn't appear to be named after the actor from Twilight.

ETA plus a college
And only a couple of them closed, so will be interesting to see if any have an outbreak.

(RPatz may be batman but hasn't been knighted... yet)
the whole of year 11 sent home from a Gainsborough school because of 4 pupils positive for covid
molto tricky

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Re: Back to school

Post by badger » Mon Sep 21, 2020 12:05 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 11:53 am
badger wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:35 am
shpalman wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:22 am

So it's 12 schools in Lincolnshire Lincolnshire and three in Greater Lincolnshire ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2020/09/stu ... am-school/

The Robert Pattinson Academy doesn't appear to be named after the actor from Twilight.

ETA plus a college
And only a couple of them closed, so will be interesting to see if any have an outbreak.

(RPatz may be batman but hasn't been knighted... yet)
the whole of year 11 sent home from a Gainsborough school because of 4 pupils positive for covid
Thanks for the update. So that's 180 kids isolating to keep a smidge over 1000s at school (and parents at work), according to wiki numbers on school roll.

Good luck to those trying to trace "close contacts". If only these secondary school kids all carried a device which could record proximity to each other it would be a hell of a lot easier...

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Re: Back to school

Post by mediocrity511 » Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:04 pm

bagpuss wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:44 am
mediocrity511 wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 12:31 pm
Case in the nursery at miniocrity's school. Just been informed. Half her class have siblings in nursery, so unsure what to do given extremely clinically vulnerable Mr Miniocrity.
Given extremely clinically vulnerable Mr Miniocrity, I would be strongly tempted to keep miniocrity off school for at least 2 weeks. And get her a test asap if at all possible (which it quite possibly isn't). Unless, of course, there is somewhere that Mr Miniocrity could stay more safely for a while but I'm assuming that's unlikely and, in any case, quite possibly undesirable.
The problem is that guidelines don't actually allow for this. As it is, we have kept Miniocrity home and managed to negotiate her absence until Thursday (Wednesday is a planned absence for hospital appointment). Then we need to make more drastic decisions about accepting fines, or refusing them and saying "take me to court, because this isn't ethical" or just deregistering and opting for home education for a period of time.

As circumstances would have it, she took a test on Saturday as part of the ONS survey. So we have at least a little bit of data there.

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Re: Back to school

Post by jimbob » Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:56 pm

mediocrity511 wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:04 pm
bagpuss wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:44 am
mediocrity511 wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 12:31 pm
Case in the nursery at miniocrity's school. Just been informed. Half her class have siblings in nursery, so unsure what to do given extremely clinically vulnerable Mr Miniocrity.
Given extremely clinically vulnerable Mr Miniocrity, I would be strongly tempted to keep miniocrity off school for at least 2 weeks. And get her a test asap if at all possible (which it quite possibly isn't). Unless, of course, there is somewhere that Mr Miniocrity could stay more safely for a while but I'm assuming that's unlikely and, in any case, quite possibly undesirable.
The problem is that guidelines don't actually allow for this. As it is, we have kept Miniocrity home and managed to negotiate her absence until Thursday (Wednesday is a planned absence for hospital appointment). Then we need to make more drastic decisions about accepting fines, or refusing them and saying "take me to court, because this isn't ethical" or just deregistering and opting for home education for a period of time.

As circumstances would have it, she took a test on Saturday as part of the ONS survey. So we have at least a little bit of data there.
How did she find it? My eldest had a couple on landing in Iceland* and said it wasn't a pleasant experience.


*Two negative tests in 4 days and quarantine inbetween - then free to go after the second negative result.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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