Back to school

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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JQH
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Re: Back to school

Post by JQH » Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:32 pm

Probably because the media and the Cabinet were so insistent on the need for schools to re-open that to run those stories would be to admit they were wrong.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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Re: Back to school

Post by jimbob » Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:38 pm

mediocrity511 wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 3:13 pm
PHE have schools as the largest source of outbreaks by a long way in their last report. 248 confirmed clusters (estimates compiled elsewhere for schools with at least 1 case is very nearly 2000). No particular difference in numbers between primary and secondary., so there doesn't seem to be any " younger kids don't spread it" effect. University outbreaks are headline news and yet there's radio silence on the much larger number of school children who have been infected or are isolating.
Do you have a link for other discussions
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Back to school

Post by mediocrity511 » Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:56 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:38 pm
mediocrity511 wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 3:13 pm
PHE have schools as the largest source of outbreaks by a long way in their last report. 248 confirmed clusters (estimates compiled elsewhere for schools with at least 1 case is very nearly 2000). No particular difference in numbers between primary and secondary., so there doesn't seem to be any " younger kids don't spread it" effect. University outbreaks are headline news and yet there's radio silence on the much larger number of school children who have been infected or are isolating.
Do you have a link for other discussions
Report can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... ce-reports

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Re: Back to school

Post by shpalman » Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:04 pm

mediocrity511 wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 3:13 pm
PHE have schools as the largest source of outbreaks by a long way in their last report. 248 confirmed clusters (estimates compiled elsewhere for schools with at least 1 case is very nearly 2000). No particular difference in numbers between primary and secondary., so there doesn't seem to be any " younger kids don't spread it" effect. University outbreaks are headline news and yet there's radio silence on the much larger number of school children who have been infected or are isolating.
"younger kids don't spread it" seems to have come from "younger kids don't get severe symptoms"; the latter is true, the former seems to have appeared in the public reckon and the government/official channels did nothing to deny it because it suited them to get kids back to school despite knowing perfectly well that they had to go home again at the end of the day.
molto tricky

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Re: Back to school

Post by discovolante » Sun Sep 27, 2020 10:14 am

mediocrity511 wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 3:48 pm
discovolante wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 3:32 pm
mediocrity511 wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 3:13 pm
PHE have schools as the largest source of outbreaks by a long way in their last report. 248 confirmed clusters (estimates compiled elsewhere for schools with at least 1 case is very nearly 2000). No particular difference in numbers between primary and secondary., so there doesn't seem to be any " younger kids don't spread it" effect. University outbreaks are headline news and yet there's radio silence on the much larger number of school children who have been infected or are isolating.
I guess the difference is 1) the students or at least a lot of them seem to be being taught entirely online, so there was no need for them to go to accommodation except ££££, and 2) the students have been effectively imprisoned in their own rooms/homes. The focus seems be on the wider impact and the motivation behind it rather than the number of cases.
Maybe, but then we've had headlines about factory outbreaks, care homes (for obvious reasons), hospitals, sports teams, funerals etc.etc.

I'm definitely not saying universities aren't a story, they definitely are. But schools are too.
Yeah, it does kind of feel like this is a bit of a taboo area as well.
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Re: Back to school

Post by jimbob » Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:42 pm

This is what the arcgis map of Covid-19 case by Middle Super Output Area (MSOA) in England looks like in Devon

Image

Guess where Exeter University is situated

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewe ... 6912ed7076
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Back to school

Post by Nickynockynoonoo » Sun Sep 27, 2020 11:16 pm

Our granddaughter is there. 2nd year so luckily not in halls but even so, eeek!

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Re: Back to school

Post by jimbob » Sun Sep 27, 2020 11:19 pm

Nickynockynoonoo wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 11:16 pm
Our granddaughter is there. 2nd year so luckily not in halls but even so, eeek!
Likewise with my son in Aberdeen.

He's not sure if he's allowed out of his flat
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Back to school

Post by AMS » Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:38 am

jimbob wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:42 pm
This is what the arcgis map of Covid-19 case by Middle Super Output Area (MSOA) in England looks like in Devon

Image

Guess where Exeter University is situated

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewe ... 6912ed7076
I thought that just showed the city, but zoom in and it's really clearly just the ward where the Uni sits. Great website though .

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Re: Back to school

Post by shpalman » Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:50 am

Guess where the University of Warwick is located.
uni-warwick-spike.png
uni-warwick-spike.png (288.19 KiB) Viewed 296 times
Spoiler:
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Re: Back to school

Post by jimbob » Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:29 am

AMS wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:38 am
jimbob wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:42 pm
This is what the arcgis map of Covid-19 case by Middle Super Output Area (MSOA) in England looks like in Devon

Image

Guess where Exeter University is situated

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewe ... 6912ed7076
I thought that just showed the city, but zoom in and it's really clearly just the ward where the Uni sits. Great website though .
I thought Ward, but it isn't looking at my area. It is a collection of wards - I don't understand how MSOA is defined. Or whether there's an equivalent COVID-19 map for Scotland or Wales.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Back to school

Post by AMS » Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:15 am

It may or may not match to local gov wards, but that is indeed where the main university campus is in Exeter.

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Re: Back to school

Post by jimbob » Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:42 am

AMS wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:15 am
It may or may not match to local gov wards, but that is indeed where the main university campus is in Exeter.
In some places it seems to be a single ward, in others (like my location) it's several. I'd guess they're probably roughly equal population regardless of area.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Back to school

Post by badger » Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:08 am

mediocrity511 wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:56 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:38 pm
mediocrity511 wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 3:13 pm
PHE have schools as the largest source of outbreaks by a long way in their last report. 248 confirmed clusters (estimates compiled elsewhere for schools with at least 1 case is very nearly 2000). No particular difference in numbers between primary and secondary., so there doesn't seem to be any " younger kids don't spread it" effect. University outbreaks are headline news and yet there's radio silence on the much larger number of school children who have been infected or are isolating.
Do you have a link for other discussions
Report can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... ce-reports
Thanks for this. Really useful to see some collated data. I think it needs a little further breaking down though with regards to cluster v outbreak and also child v staff.

the report says:
A cluster is defined as two or more test-confirmed cases of COVID-19 among individuals associated with a specific non-residential setting with illness onset dates within a 14-day period (in the
absence of detailed information about the type of contact between the cases).

An outbreak is defined as two or more test-confirmed cases of COVID-19 among individuals associated with a specific non-residential setting with illness onset dates within 14 days, and one
of:
(1) Identified direct exposure between at least 2 of the test-confirmed cases in that setting (for
example under one metre face to face, or spending more than 15 minutes within 2 metres) during the infectious period of one of the cases
(2) When there is no sustained local community transmission - absence of an alternative
source of infection outside the setting for the initially identified cases

In week 38, there were 248 confirmed COVID-19 clusters or outbreaks in educational settings.
So if it was 247 Clusters and 1 Outbreak, or 1 Cluster and 247 Outbreaks, our reaction might be significantly different in terms of what it tells us about transmission in schools.

Yes, primary schools are as much in the mix as any other, but I assume that includes staff as well? So what it tells us about transmission between children is limited somewhat.

(Assuming that we will see "College/University" number shoot up in next week's report given what's on here and being reported at length elsewhere?)

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Re: Back to school

Post by badger » Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:23 am

shpalman wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:04 pm
mediocrity511 wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 3:13 pm
PHE have schools as the largest source of outbreaks by a long way in their last report. 248 confirmed clusters (estimates compiled elsewhere for schools with at least 1 case is very nearly 2000). No particular difference in numbers between primary and secondary., so there doesn't seem to be any " younger kids don't spread it" effect. University outbreaks are headline news and yet there's radio silence on the much larger number of school children who have been infected or are isolating.
"younger kids don't spread it" seems to have come from "younger kids don't get severe symptoms"; the latter is true, the former seems to have appeared in the public reckon and the government/official channels did nothing to deny it because it suited them to get kids back to school despite knowing perfectly well that they had to go home again at the end of the day.
Hmmmmm, my experience is a little different. "Younger kids don't spread it" comes from "Younger kids don't spread it as much as older ones and adults". This comes partly from their relative lack of symptoms, and from some of the research and government/official channels actively saying so. Eg. Shamez Ladani on More or Less and elsewhere, such as Prof Viner in the press over the weekend. Full paper here.

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Re: Back to school

Post by jimbob » Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:34 am

Who would have thought it:


https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... _FINAL.pdf


Image

And this is despite there having been very few cases in educational settings in June. WHAT HAS CHANGED?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Back to school

Post by shpalman » Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:33 pm

badger wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:23 am
shpalman wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:04 pm
mediocrity511 wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 3:13 pm
PHE have schools as the largest source of outbreaks by a long way in their last report. 248 confirmed clusters (estimates compiled elsewhere for schools with at least 1 case is very nearly 2000). No particular difference in numbers between primary and secondary., so there doesn't seem to be any " younger kids don't spread it" effect. University outbreaks are headline news and yet there's radio silence on the much larger number of school children who have been infected or are isolating.
"younger kids don't spread it" seems to have come from "younger kids don't get severe symptoms"; the latter is true, the former seems to have appeared in the public reckon and the government/official channels did nothing to deny it because it suited them to get kids back to school despite knowing perfectly well that they had to go home again at the end of the day.
Hmmmmm, my experience is a little different. "Younger kids don't spread it" comes from "Younger kids don't spread it as much as older ones and adults". This comes partly from their relative lack of symptoms, and from some of the research and government/official channels actively saying so. Eg. Shamez Ladani on More or Less and elsewhere, such as Prof Viner in the press over the weekend. Full paper here.
"Data were insufficient to conclude whether transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children is lower than by adults."

"Preliminary evidence suggests that children have a lower susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with adults, but the role that children and adolescents play in transmission of this virus remains unclear."
molto tricky

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Re: Back to school

Post by mediocrity511 » Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:34 pm

badger wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:08 am
mediocrity511 wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:56 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:38 pm


Do you have a link for other discussions
Report can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... ce-reports
Thanks for this. Really useful to see some collated data. I think it needs a little further breaking down though with regards to cluster v outbreak and also child v staff.

the report says:
A cluster is defined as two or more test-confirmed cases of COVID-19 among individuals associated with a specific non-residential setting with illness onset dates within a 14-day period (in the
absence of detailed information about the type of contact between the cases).

An outbreak is defined as two or more test-confirmed cases of COVID-19 among individuals associated with a specific non-residential setting with illness onset dates within 14 days, and one
of:
(1) Identified direct exposure between at least 2 of the test-confirmed cases in that setting (for
example under one metre face to face, or spending more than 15 minutes within 2 metres) during the infectious period of one of the cases
(2) When there is no sustained local community transmission - absence of an alternative
source of infection outside the setting for the initially identified cases

In week 38, there were 248 confirmed COVID-19 clusters or outbreaks in educational settings.
So if it was 247 Clusters and 1 Outbreak, or 1 Cluster and 247 Outbreaks, our reaction might be significantly different in terms of what it tells us about transmission in schools.

Yes, primary schools are as much in the mix as any other, but I assume that includes staff as well? So what it tells us about transmission between children is limited somewhat.

(Assuming that we will see "College/University" number shoot up in next week's report given what's on here and being reported at length elsewhere?)
It would be interesting to see that extra data. However the schools guidelines state that whilst children don't need to distance from others in their bubbles, staff should be distancing from students and each other. There would also be confounding issues where staff can access priority tests whilst children can't and given children's relatively mild symptoms and wider range of non standard symptoms then their cases might fly under the radar.

I do know that in some cases whole schools have been tested after an outbreak, presumably to gather this kind of data.

https://www.st-margarets.bury.sch.uk/st ... PiGeaPuJU8

I've seen the letters from this school discussed, they're not the standard PHE ones and give quite a lot of information into the situation at least one school is finding itself in.

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Re: Back to school

Post by mediocrity511 » Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:36 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:33 pm
badger wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:23 am
shpalman wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:04 pm


"younger kids don't spread it" seems to have come from "younger kids don't get severe symptoms"; the latter is true, the former seems to have appeared in the public reckon and the government/official channels did nothing to deny it because it suited them to get kids back to school despite knowing perfectly well that they had to go home again at the end of the day.
Hmmmmm, my experience is a little different. "Younger kids don't spread it" comes from "Younger kids don't spread it as much as older ones and adults". This comes partly from their relative lack of symptoms, and from some of the research and government/official channels actively saying so. Eg. Shamez Ladani on More or Less and elsewhere, such as Prof Viner in the press over the weekend. Full paper here.
"Data were insufficient to conclude whether transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children is lower than by adults."

"Preliminary evidence suggests that children have a lower susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with adults, but the role that children and adolescents play in transmission of this virus remains unclear."
This is also the paper whose data was collated primarily when schools were closed to the majority of pupils too and children's lack of contacts during the time period is memtioned as a potential confounding factor.

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Re: Back to school

Post by jimbob » Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:21 pm

mediocrity511 wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:36 pm
shpalman wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:33 pm
badger wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:23 am


Hmmmmm, my experience is a little different. "Younger kids don't spread it" comes from "Younger kids don't spread it as much as older ones and adults". This comes partly from their relative lack of symptoms, and from some of the research and government/official channels actively saying so. Eg. Shamez Ladani on More or Less and elsewhere, such as Prof Viner in the press over the weekend. Full paper here.
"Data were insufficient to conclude whether transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children is lower than by adults."

"Preliminary evidence suggests that children have a lower susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with adults, but the role that children and adolescents play in transmission of this virus remains unclear."
This is also the paper whose data was collated primarily when schools were closed to the majority of pupils too and children's lack of contacts during the time period is memtioned as a potential confounding factor.
Yes.

Basically, even if kids (and there's a huge difference between a 5-yr old and a 17yr old) are inherently less susceptible to it than adults, they have far more opportunities to catch and spread it than most adults.

And because of siblings and different schools and years, it means that virtually every school staff member, parent and child in the country is in the same super-bubble.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Back to school

Post by badger » Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:36 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:33 pm
badger wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:23 am
shpalman wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:04 pm


"younger kids don't spread it" seems to have come from "younger kids don't get severe symptoms"; the latter is true, the former seems to have appeared in the public reckon and the government/official channels did nothing to deny it because it suited them to get kids back to school despite knowing perfectly well that they had to go home again at the end of the day.
Hmmmmm, my experience is a little different. "Younger kids don't spread it" comes from "Younger kids don't spread it as much as older ones and adults". This comes partly from their relative lack of symptoms, and from some of the research and government/official channels actively saying so. Eg. Shamez Ladani on More or Less and elsewhere, such as Prof Viner in the press over the weekend. Full paper here.
"Data were insufficient to conclude whether transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children is lower than by adults."

"Preliminary evidence suggests that children have a lower susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with adults, but the role that children and adolescents play in transmission of this virus remains unclear."
Er, thanks. I was quibbling with your suggestion of a conspiracy of silence (Govt/advisers quietly allowing people to think kids don't spread). The way the data is reported shows this is not entirely true:
But he said: “Susceptibility tells us a little about transmission. You have got to be able to catch the virus to transmit it.” The paper says the existing data does suggest that children and adolescents are much less likely to pass on Covid-19 than they were to pass on flu during the last pandemic.

Viner’s team began the work in spring and published an early pre-print on their initial limited findings. They have since been feeding their data to Sage, the government’s scientific advisory committee, updating advisers and ministers as the evidence has accumulated and contributing to the decisions over opening schools in the UK and overseas.

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Re: Back to school

Post by badger » Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:40 pm

mediocrity511 wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:36 pm
shpalman wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:33 pm
badger wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:23 am


Hmmmmm, my experience is a little different. "Younger kids don't spread it" comes from "Younger kids don't spread it as much as older ones and adults". This comes partly from their relative lack of symptoms, and from some of the research and government/official channels actively saying so. Eg. Shamez Ladani on More or Less and elsewhere, such as Prof Viner in the press over the weekend. Full paper here.
"Data were insufficient to conclude whether transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children is lower than by adults."

"Preliminary evidence suggests that children have a lower susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with adults, but the role that children and adolescents play in transmission of this virus remains unclear."
This is also the paper whose data was collated primarily when schools were closed to the majority of pupils too and children's lack of contacts during the time period is memtioned as a potential confounding factor.
It's a systematic review and meta-analysis.

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Re: Back to school

Post by badger » Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:56 pm

mediocrity511 wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:34 pm
badger wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:08 am
mediocrity511 wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:56 pm


Report can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... ce-reports
Thanks for this. Really useful to see some collated data. I think it needs a little further breaking down though with regards to cluster v outbreak and also child v staff.

the report says:
A cluster is defined as two or more test-confirmed cases of COVID-19 among individuals associated with a specific non-residential setting with illness onset dates within a 14-day period (in the
absence of detailed information about the type of contact between the cases).

An outbreak is defined as two or more test-confirmed cases of COVID-19 among individuals associated with a specific non-residential setting with illness onset dates within 14 days, and one
of:
(1) Identified direct exposure between at least 2 of the test-confirmed cases in that setting (for
example under one metre face to face, or spending more than 15 minutes within 2 metres) during the infectious period of one of the cases
(2) When there is no sustained local community transmission - absence of an alternative
source of infection outside the setting for the initially identified cases

In week 38, there were 248 confirmed COVID-19 clusters or outbreaks in educational settings.
So if it was 247 Clusters and 1 Outbreak, or 1 Cluster and 247 Outbreaks, our reaction might be significantly different in terms of what it tells us about transmission in schools.

Yes, primary schools are as much in the mix as any other, but I assume that includes staff as well? So what it tells us about transmission between children is limited somewhat.

(Assuming that we will see "College/University" number shoot up in next week's report given what's on here and being reported at length elsewhere?)
It would be interesting to see that extra data. However the schools guidelines state that whilst children don't need to distance from others in their bubbles, staff should be distancing from students and each other. There would also be confounding issues where staff can access priority tests whilst children can't and given children's relatively mild symptoms and wider range of non standard symptoms then their cases might fly under the radar.

I do know that in some cases whole schools have been tested after an outbreak, presumably to gather this kind of data.

https://www.st-margarets.bury.sch.uk/st ... PiGeaPuJU8

I've seen the letters from this school discussed, they're not the standard PHE ones and give quite a lot of information into the situation at least one school is finding itself in.
Agreed, lots to unconfound and more data needed on this, but it would good if we had more to go on the data they've collected so far...
...or just close all the schools now? Or incorporate a different strategy on school grounds? Is that what you're suggesting?

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Re: Back to school

Post by mediocrity511 » Mon Sep 28, 2020 2:16 pm

badger wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:56 pm
mediocrity511 wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:34 pm
badger wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:08 am


Thanks for this. Really useful to see some collated data. I think it needs a little further breaking down though with regards to cluster v outbreak and also child v staff.

the report says:



So if it was 247 Clusters and 1 Outbreak, or 1 Cluster and 247 Outbreaks, our reaction might be significantly different in terms of what it tells us about transmission in schools.

Yes, primary schools are as much in the mix as any other, but I assume that includes staff as well? So what it tells us about transmission between children is limited somewhat.

(Assuming that we will see "College/University" number shoot up in next week's report given what's on here and being reported at length elsewhere?)
It would be interesting to see that extra data. However the schools guidelines state that whilst children don't need to distance from others in their bubbles, staff should be distancing from students and each other. There would also be confounding issues where staff can access priority tests whilst children can't and given children's relatively mild symptoms and wider range of non standard symptoms then their cases might fly under the radar.

I do know that in some cases whole schools have been tested after an outbreak, presumably to gather this kind of data.

https://www.st-margarets.bury.sch.uk/st ... PiGeaPuJU8

I've seen the letters from this school discussed, they're not the standard PHE ones and give quite a lot of information into the situation at least one school is finding itself in.
Agreed, lots to unconfound and more data needed on this, but it would good if we had more to go on the data they've collected so far...
...or just close all the schools now? Or incorporate a different strategy on school grounds? Is that what you're suggesting?
No, I don't think closing all the schools now is feasible or desirable. Schools did have to have online learning plans in place by the end of September though, so we are at a point where those plans are ready to be activated.

I think if I were in charge, I'd extend everywhere's October half term to two weeks (some places like Nottingham already have this). At a minimum, I'd stop fines for clinically vulnerable children and those with vulnerable family members. Then I think it would be worth looking at rota systems, we know school outbreaks were far, far fewer when only key worker and socially vulnerable kids were in throughout lockdown and they were also much lower when more children went back in bubbles of 15. There would need to be money thrown at it for staff, technology etc and probably some kind of childcare provision for key workers alongside.

But the current system seems unsustainable and unsafe. Blended learning isn't ideal, but if it can stop random rolling shutdowns, which are much harder to plan for, and keep teachers, students and their families safe then it's worth looking at.

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Re: Back to school

Post by jdc » Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:24 pm

jimbob wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:42 am
AMS wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:15 am
It may or may not match to local gov wards, but that is indeed where the main university campus is in Exeter.
In some places it seems to be a single ward, in others (like my location) it's several. I'd guess they're probably roughly equal population regardless of area.
afaik, they don't match up with wards. Except perhaps by coincidence?

Your population guess is correct:

Middle-layer Super Output Areas are formed by stitching together Lower-layer Super Output Areas, the minimum population is 5000 and the mean is 7200.

LSOAs are 1000-1500 pop., and they're stitched together from adjacent Output Areas.

Output areas are "built from clusters of adjacent unit postcodes".

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