Back to school

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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OffTheRock
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Re: Back to school

Post by OffTheRock » Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:09 pm

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... utumn-term

So despite having tobhave two press conferences this week about rapidly rising cases and extending restrictions, it looks like we are still ploughing on with the plan to use inaccurate lateral flow tests to replace isolation in secondary schools.

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bob sterman
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Re: Back to school

Post by bob sterman » Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:46 pm

I knew the lateral flow tests weren't good but is this for real?

Analysis of lateral flow test programme at University of Birmingham showed "SENSITIVITY 3% (not a typo)"...

https://twitter.com/deeksj/status/1340975390412685312

Surely this terrible performance must be mostly down to the self-swabbing? Even though they did a good enough job for the purposes of PCR.

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shpalman
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Re: Back to school

Post by shpalman » Wed Dec 23, 2020 10:49 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:46 pm
I knew the lateral flow tests weren't good but is this for real?

Analysis of lateral flow test programme at University of Birmingham showed "SENSITIVITY 3% (not a typo)"...

https://twitter.com/deeksj/status/1340975390412685312

Surely this terrible performance must be mostly down to the self-swabbing? Even though they did a good enough job for the purposes of PCR.
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/sta ... 0095074308
The only missed samples were all very LOW PCR RNA - EXACTLY as expected.
molto tricky

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bob sterman
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Re: Back to school

Post by bob sterman » Thu Dec 24, 2020 9:39 am

shpalman wrote:
Wed Dec 23, 2020 10:49 pm
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/sta ... 0095074308
The only missed samples were all very LOW PCR RNA - EXACTLY as expected.
Yes - the Ct value of PCR correlates with viral load in the specimen - but only correlates with viral load in the person when the specimen is collected properly.

A positive specimen could have a high Ct value because it was collected using poor technique (these were self-swabbings) - if this is the case a high Ct value doesn't tell you much about the infectiousness of the person.

Most people seem to be describing samples with Ct values > 35 as low viral load and unlikely to be infectious. But in his tweet (Michael Mina) extended the definition of "high" Ct and therefore low viral load to Ct values of 29, 29, 31, 31, 33, and 34. Hardly justifiable when 31 is a typical media Ct value when you collect a load of samples...

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/conten ... 32.2001483

In that study the median Ct for severe cases (requiring intensive care admission and/or fatal) was 32.55!! The sort of value missed by the lateral flow test.

JellyandJackson
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Re: Back to school

Post by JellyandJackson » Thu Dec 24, 2020 9:50 am

The county council is now suggesting getting a postal test for healthy / asymptomatic secondary school age kids 4-7 days before they go back. So that’ll be interesting.
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OffTheRock
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Re: Back to school

Post by OffTheRock » Thu Dec 24, 2020 4:12 pm

Let’s hope there aren’t too many symptomatic people needing a postal test during that window, then!

It’s just going to be a worse version of September, when test & trace failed to see the issue with the return to school coughs and colds putting a strain on the system and it completely failed to cope. Except with the added bonus of there being a lot more covid around and a new mutant strain.

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shpalman
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Re: Back to school

Post by shpalman » Thu Dec 24, 2020 4:49 pm

JellyandJackson wrote:
Thu Dec 24, 2020 9:50 am
The county council is now suggesting getting a postal test for healthy / asymptomatic secondary school age kids 4-7 days before they go back. So that’ll be interesting.
Nationwide that would be of the order of, what, 3 million children? With the UK currently doing about 400,000 tests per day? Out of a capacity of 700,000? With my reputation?
molto tricky

OffTheRock
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Re: Back to school

Post by OffTheRock » Thu Dec 24, 2020 10:11 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Dec 24, 2020 4:49 pm
JellyandJackson wrote:
Thu Dec 24, 2020 9:50 am
The county council is now suggesting getting a postal test for healthy / asymptomatic secondary school age kids 4-7 days before they go back. So that’ll be interesting.
Nationwide that would be of the order of, what, 3 million children? With the UK currently doing about 400,000 tests per day? Out of a capacity of 700,000? With my reputation?

Tbf you don’t have to actually do the tests. Yo just have to make everybody believe that you’ve done enough to make it safe. It’s a bit like all the other mitigations they’ve put in place to make schools safe.

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shpalman
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Re: Back to school

Post by shpalman » Fri Dec 25, 2020 10:22 am

Since I was on the site anyway for the B.1.1.7 stuff, here's COVID-19 in children and the role of school settings in transmission - first update
[*]There is a general consensus that the decision to close schools to control the COVID-19 pandemic should be used as a last resort. The negative physical, mental health and educational impact of proactive school closures on children, as well as the economic impact on society more broadly, would likely outweigh the benefits.
Leaving the closure of schools as the last resort does not mean forcing schools to stay open or forcing children to go to them, though, does it?
[*]In surveillance data, among childhood COVID-19 cases, children between 1-18 years of age have lower rates of hospitalisation, severe hospitalisation and death than do all other age groups.
[*]Children of all ages are susceptible to and can transmit SARS-CoV-2. Younger children appear to be less susceptible to infection, and when infected, less often lead to onward transmission than older children and adults.
So not-younger children transmit covid just as much as adults.
[*]This report does not consider the epidemiology of COVID-19 in relation to new variants of SARS-CoV-2, for which robust evidence on the potential impact in school settings is not yet available, such as one recently observed in the United Kingdom.
[*]School closures can contribute to a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but by themselves are insufficient to prevent community transmission of COVID-19 in the absence of other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as restrictions on mass gathering.
Wait, what? Who actually thinks that school closures by themselves would be sufficient to prevent community transmission?

The question is whether leaving schools open ruins your chances of having R<1 despite all the other NPIs.
[*]The return to school of children around mid-August 2020 coincided with a general relaxation of other NPI measures in many countries and does not appear to have been a driving force in the upsurge in cases observed in many EU Member States from October 2020. Trends in case notification rates observed since August 2020 for children aged 16-18 years most closely resemble those of adults aged 19-39 years.
So not-younger children transmit covid just as much as adults. Covid in Italy for example really took off in October even though everyone would have gone back to work at the beginning of September, while schools and universities went back in mid-September i.e. two weeks before the start of October. Case rates in September were actually pretty stable.
[*]Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 can occur within school settings and clusters have been reported in preschools, primary and secondary schools. Incidence of COVID-19 in school settings appear to be impacted by levels of community transmission. Where epidemiological investigation has occurred, transmission in schools has accounted for a minority of all COVID-19 cases in each country.
[*]Educational staff and adults within the school setting are generally not seen to be at a higher risk of infection than other occupations, although educational roles that put one in contact with older children and/or many adults may be associated with a higher risk.
[*]Non-pharmaceutical interventions in school settings in the form of physical distancing that prevent crowding as well as hygiene and safety measures are essential to preventing transmission. Measures must be adapted to the setting and age group and consider the need to prevent transmission as well as to provide children with an optimal learning and social environment.
molto tricky

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shpalman
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Re: Back to school

Post by shpalman » Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:14 pm

molto tricky

OffTheRock
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Re: Back to school

Post by OffTheRock » Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:21 pm

Unless you are in primary. Even in most tier 4 areas looks like they are going back on Monday.

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Grumble
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Re: Back to school

Post by Grumble » Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:39 pm

Why don’t they link it to the tiers?
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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Sciolus
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Re: Back to school

Post by Sciolus » Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:57 pm

Grumble wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:39 pm
Why don’t they link it to the tiers?
Probably because they are determined to press ahead with end-of-year exams until the moment it becomes impossible, and have refused to come up with a system to account for individuals' differing amounts of access to schooling. So making it national preserves the fiction of fairness.

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jimbob
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Re: Back to school

Post by jimbob » Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:59 pm

Sciolus wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:57 pm
Grumble wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:39 pm
Why don’t they link it to the tiers?
Probably because they are determined to press ahead with end-of-year exams until the moment it becomes impossible, and have refused to come up with a system to account for individuals' differing amounts of access to schooling. So making it national preserves the fiction of fairness.
I think this is it. And when some kids will be self isolating multiple times, it's really unfair
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

OffTheRock
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Re: Back to school

Post by OffTheRock » Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:04 pm

I think because they’ve shoved almost everywhere into tier 4. So if they closed all primaries in tier 4 it would be too many schools. They’re going with the worst hit areas in tier 4 for primary. Presumably with the least worst hit areas closing their schools in about 2 weeks when their cases are still rising.

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Re: Back to school

Post by OffTheRock » Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:13 pm

The message is schools are safe. The problem is not the schools. Teachers, school authorities, parents they’ve made a fantastic effort to make schools safe places. The issue is the what happens, the spread from erm the mixing of households that naturally takes place in schools. That’s what we’re trying to combat in the very high infection rate areas. So my message would be unless your area is specifically among those very high rate areas, send your children, send your family to school in the normal way.
This rambling nonsense answer from the PM’s press conference probably explains a lot. Mostly that decisions are being made by idiots.

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Re: Back to school

Post by Ladysavage » Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:50 pm

OffTheRock wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:21 pm
Unless you are in primary. Even in most tier 4 areas looks like they are going back on Monday.
Ours aren't physically back until the 18th as it stands, that may change as our figures up here are pretty shite. I'm having to homeschool boobshark from the 11th

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Re: Back to school

Post by OffTheRock » Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:50 pm

Ladysavage wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:50 pm
OffTheRock wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:21 pm
Unless you are in primary. Even in most tier 4 areas looks like they are going back on Monday.
Ours aren't physically back until the 18th as it stands, that may change as our figures up here are pretty shite. I'm having to homeschool boobshark from the 11th
I think Wales have extended their holiday too.

It looks like the areas where the primaries are shut are the first ones that went into tier 4. Except Greenwich, cos it’s a bit embarrassing if you have to try and sue a local authority to prevent them closing schools and then tell them to close their schools 2 weeks later.

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Brightonian
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Re: Back to school

Post by Brightonian » Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:04 pm

A Twitter exchange.
Screenshot_20201230-220111.png
Screenshot_20201230-220111.png (299.7 KiB) Viewed 175 times

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Re: Back to school

Post by badger » Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:48 pm

OffTheRock wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:04 pm
I think because they’ve shoved almost everywhere into tier 4. So if they closed all primaries in tier 4 it would be too many schools. They’re going with the worst hit areas in tier 4 for primary. Presumably with the least worst hit areas closing their schools in about 2 weeks when their cases are still rising.
Are they? What is "worst hit"? Because it's not number of of infections or percentage increase over last week. Some boroughs in London seemingly worse hit are opening primaries than those which are staying closed.

What data are they using to make these decisions? Is it infections by age? Are they really that different enough in the circumstances to warrant this patchwork approach? It seems they are doing it to a) f.ck everyone off and b) have another u turn to make in a few days.

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discovolante
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Re: Back to school

Post by discovolante » Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:10 am

Someone should sue the government for making irrational decisions.
don't get any big ideas, they're not gonna happen

OffTheRock
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Re: Back to school

Post by OffTheRock » Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:46 pm

badger wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:48 pm
OffTheRock wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:04 pm
I think because they’ve shoved almost everywhere into tier 4. So if they closed all primaries in tier 4 it would be too many schools. They’re going with the worst hit areas in tier 4 for primary. Presumably with the least worst hit areas closing their schools in about 2 weeks when their cases are still rising.
Are they? What is "worst hit"? Because it's not number of of infections or percentage increase over last week. Some boroughs in London seemingly worse hit are opening primaries than those which are staying closed.

What data are they using to make these decisions? Is it infections by age? Are they really that different enough in the circumstances to warrant this patchwork approach? It seems they are doing it to a) f.ck everyone off and b) have another u turn to make in a few days.
Yep. I’m going take that back and say I have no f.cking idea how they picked them. But it doesn’t look like they do either.

They seem to have forgotten that middle schools exist and that there aren’t rigid catchment boundaries in England. Are schools supposed to stay open based on where they are located or where most of their pupils come from?

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jimbob
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Re: Back to school

Post by jimbob » Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:11 pm

OffTheRock wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:46 pm
badger wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:48 pm
OffTheRock wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:04 pm
I think because they’ve shoved almost everywhere into tier 4. So if they closed all primaries in tier 4 it would be too many schools. They’re going with the worst hit areas in tier 4 for primary. Presumably with the least worst hit areas closing their schools in about 2 weeks when their cases are still rising.
Are they? What is "worst hit"? Because it's not number of of infections or percentage increase over last week. Some boroughs in London seemingly worse hit are opening primaries than those which are staying closed.

What data are they using to make these decisions? Is it infections by age? Are they really that different enough in the circumstances to warrant this patchwork approach? It seems they are doing it to a) f.ck everyone off and b) have another u turn to make in a few days.
Yep. I’m going take that back and say I have no f.cking idea how they picked them. But it doesn’t look like they do either.

They seem to have forgotten that middle schools exist and that there aren’t rigid catchment boundaries in England. Are schools supposed to stay open based on where they are located or where most of their pupils come from?
That last bit. My kids old secondary school feeds 6th forms in both Greater Manchester and Sheffield, for example. The year 1-13 education system is a nationwide network linking most parents and staff in a giant bubble
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Back to school

Post by JQH » Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:26 pm

I'm still more than half convinced that Johnson doesn't realise that State schools aren't boarding and the kids go home each evening.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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OffTheRock
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Re: Back to school

Post by OffTheRock » Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:40 pm

It’s almost like he’s never had to take any responsibility for his own children.

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