The Great Barrington Declaration

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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bob sterman
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The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by bob sterman » Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:29 am

So Professor Sunetra Gupta has put together a declaration and petition to push her herd immunity agenda (didn't she say we were already almost there in March, April, May, June, July, August and September?)

https://gbdeclaration.org

It's been signed by something like 60,000 members of the public and few thousand "medical practitioners".

However, it seems anyone can claim to be a "medical practitioner" to add credibility to their signature. Browsing this list I found physiotherapists, chiropracters and various other "practitioners" with expertise in virology and epidemiology to share.

Of course Sikora's there. Curiously no sign of Carl Heneghan.

Part of the recommendation is this...
Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.
It's rather incoherent - how does hand washing "reduce the herd immunity threshold"???

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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by bob sterman » Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:45 am

Just checked the signatories some more - predictably the numbers are starting to get inflated with spoofs.

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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by headshot » Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:00 am

Yeah, they've not really put any sort of checks in place:
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bob sterman
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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by bob sterman » Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:07 am

Ivor Cummins - the motivational speaker and diet guru podcast guy - is on there as a "Public health academic or professional" (not a spoof - he really claims to be that). But there is also a second spoof entry for him.

While The Donald is on there a few times.

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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by Brightonian » Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:30 am

Headline in top item on the Sky News site right now begins "Top scientists call for herd immunity approach".
Last edited by Brightonian on Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:30 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by Little waster » Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:30 am

So the declaration reads:-
As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.
And then goes on to list 60,000 members of the "General Public*"., a couple thousand spoof accounts, along with cranks and quacks of every description, as well as presumably some genuine "infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists" with genuine concerns.

So all they've done is massively dilute down whatever impact the genuine scientists signatures would have had all for the sake of properly vetting the signatures.

They should have ran two petitions; a vetted one listing the 2000(?) scientists and MHPs expressing their professional concern and a general one for the public to show the extent of their support which would have been a lot more impactful.

It is almost as if the people behind this are clueless fuckwits.



*Or as the Fail styles them "World's Top Scientists**"



**Even if you interpret that as merely referring to the sub-section of signatures belonging to the professionals there is nothing indicative of "Top Scientist" in simply signing an online petition, particularly one built on as shaky a scientific foundation as this.
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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by Little waster » Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:37 am

I've currently spotted two senior members of the creationist "Discovery Institute" although only one had the audacity to pretend to be a scientist.
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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by bob sterman » Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:42 am

Little waster wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:37 am
I've currently spotted two senior members of the creationist "Discovery Institute" although only one had the audacity to pretend to be a scientist.
I've spotted Matt Hancock and several Donal Trumps! And...

Dr. Dom Cummings, United Kingdom, PhD Durham Univercity

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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by PeteB » Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:16 pm


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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by Little waster » Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:46 pm

Happier, more innocent times ...
Today, Seitz admits that "it was stupid" for the Oregon activists to copy the academy's format. Still, he doesn't understand why the academy felt compelled to disavow the petition, which he continues to cite as proof that it is "not true" there is a scientific consensus on global warming
Baffling isn't it, just because a bunch of cranks tried to fraudulently pass off a load of pseudo-scientific b.llsh.t as a PNAS paper is no reason for the NAS to publicly and repeatedly declare they have nothing to do with it and completely repudiate any claims it may make.
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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by PeteB » Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:42 pm

Cover for this

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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by bob sterman » Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:09 pm

Given that we are currently detecting 14,000 cases per day in the UK (with a doubling time of about 10 days) - and in reality there are probably more than 20,000 new cases per day - what is it exactly that the signatories want? More cases per day??? A shorter doubling time? How many cases per day would be enough? How short does the doubling time need to be?

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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by Little waster » Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:34 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:09 pm
Given that we are currently detecting 14,000 cases per day in the UK (with a doubling time of about 10 days) - and in reality there are probably more than 20,000 new cases per day - what is it exactly that the signatories want? More cases per day??? A shorter doubling time? How many cases per day would be enough? How short does the doubling time need to be?
BuT mAsKs MaKe My ChIn SwEaTy!!!! AnD WaNnA gO mAcDoNaLdS!!!!!
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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by bob sterman » Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:19 am

Good article here on the declaration...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -viewpoint

So it was drawn up by the American Institute for Economic Research (notably not the American Institute for Publich Health Research, or the American Institute for Epidemiological Research - if they existed!).

From the photo on the declaration website - it looks like they flew Sunetra Gupta out to Massachusetts to sign the declaration (internet connection down???). Unless it's an old photo and she's got a long association with this limited-government free-market campaign group?

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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by Little waster » Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:39 am

bob sterman wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:19 am

So it was drawn up by the American Institute for Economic Research.
Pshaw!

There is absolutely nothing concerning about taking public health advice from a libertarian death-cult with a record of regurgitating whatever mad nonsense their wealthy shadow donors pay them to say.
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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by bob sterman » Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:37 pm

It is noteworthy that Carl Heneghan has opted not to sign this declaration.

A few weeks ago he was still banging on about there being "No Evidence' Of Covid-19 Second Wave In UK" and that apparent rises in cases were just "a seasonal effect now"....

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ ... 79b6765e92

Since then he's dialed-back his media appearances and mentions considerably - and is now just Tweeting about how the reported cases don't quite match the projections given by Vallance et al a short while ago.

https://twitter.com/carlheneghan/status ... 1205954560

If even Heneghan is spooked - we know we really are in trouble.

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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by snoozeofreason » Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:29 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:37 pm
It is noteworthy that Carl Heneghan has opted not to sign this declaration.
No signature from Anders Tegnell either, unless I missed it.
In six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them. The human body was knocked up pretty late on the Friday afternoon, with a deadline looming. How well do you expect it to work?

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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by jimbob » Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:47 pm

Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by bob sterman » Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:16 pm

So they are claiming to be unable to audit all the signatures.

But they are quite happy to include the fakes, spoofs and charlatans in the headline figure they give for the number of times it has been signed by "Medical & Public Health Scientists". Which the media lap up - and report.

And they also seem to have removed the search function - so you can't find the Trumps and Darth Vaders.

But right on the front page we have...

Dr. Hoolet Dedogsout Philippines PhD Eugenics
Prof. Poopies McButthole United Kingdom PhD in Pooping

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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by Brightonian » Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:28 pm

"Dr Johnny Bananas" top trending on my Twitter right now.

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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by bob sterman » Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:14 pm

Sky News have picked up on the spoofs...

https://news.sky.com/story/coronvairus- ... r-12099947

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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by sTeamTraen » Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:15 pm

I thought the Great Barrington Declaration was when England famously bowled Australia out for 87 on a Melbourne sticky with ten minutes left to play.
Something something hammer something something nail

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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by Little waster » Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:17 pm

Others listed include a resident at the “university of your mum”
OK own up, who did this? I know it was one of you.

I can wait all day if I have to.
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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by science_fox » Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:26 am

There's a counter proposal https://www.johnsnowmemo.com/

With some slightly more sensible names on it.

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Re: The Great Barrington Declaration

Post by bob sterman » Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:56 am

science_fox wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:26 am
There's a counter proposal https://www.johnsnowmemo.com/

With some slightly more sensible names on it.
Great!! Created virtually too.

So it didn't involve any signatories flying across the Atlantic (in violation of Foreign Office guidance against all but essential travel to the USA) on a junket paid for by a libertarian thinktank and necessitating a period of quarantine on return to the UK (which I guess at least rules out appearing in the Question Time studio for a while).

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