Covid-19 the re-lockdown

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shpalman
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Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:26 am

shpalman wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 7:54 am
... shutting contact sports back down, so that would at least knacker the dance lessons. Unless the same dancers who said DAnCiNg iS a ConTact sPOrt WE ARE allowEd To dO it will now switch to dANCiNG iSn't REallY a cOntACT sport We ShOUld bE AllowED to KEEp DoinG It.
That is indeed exactly what the guy who runs our dance school just said.

Of course the ministerial decrees and regional ordinances don't list every single sport; the last one just said something like "you can do sport, including contact sport, just follow the guidelines from your governing body" and the dance governing body (which barely acknowledges that anyone would want to dance socially and not just for competitions) just said "give non-competitive couples 10 square metres each" on top of all the other usual rules for physical activity and stuff. And for sure no dance school is actually giving couples 10 square metres. (Individual physical activity requires 2 metre spacing between the participants, some dance schools have marked out 2-metre-by-2-metre squares, which they then ignore. It was hard enough explaining the difference between metres and square metres to the guy who runs our dance school, and I could barely mark out 8 squares of 8 square metres each in the place where I give lessons while he kept insisting we'd be able to get 10 couples in and the dance teachers didn't count as needing space.)

So the next decree, due tomorrow, won't have anything specific in it about dance schools either; I'm sure what we'll get is lots of people saying "it's not clear" when it's fairly obvious that it's not allowed but they're trying to find a way in which they can do it anyway.

Like I said somewhere else, covid isn't spontaneously generated by a critical mass of people. What I haven't heard about, is any cases of someone in my work or social circle who turned out to have the virus but didn't pass it on to anyone because of successful social distancing and/or self-isolation on presentation of symptoms. This leads me to suggest that if someone in my work or social circle were to have the virus then very soon we'd all have it, so the only reason we haven't had outbreaks is that there just hasn't been anyone bringing the virus in, not that the measures we are implementing are working.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:03 am

shpalman wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:26 am
Like I said somewhere else, covid isn't spontaneously generated by a critical mass of people. What I haven't heard about, is any cases of someone in my work or social circle who turned out to have the virus but didn't pass it on to anyone because of successful social distancing and/or self-isolation on presentation of symptoms. This leads me to suggest that if someone in my work or social circle were to have the virus then very soon we'd all have it, so the only reason we haven't had outbreaks is that there just hasn't been anyone bringing the virus in, not that the measures we are implementing are working.
Yep. The whole thing with being able to have 10 people for a wedding and 6 for a barbecue and then hey, cases are less than 20 per 100k so now you can have 15 for the wedding and 10 for the barbecue is baffling to me. It's as if the decisions are being taken by the same people who give advice about how long you can stay outdoors for when atmospheric NOx levels go up.

There is also a huge amount of availability bias in the reporting of COVID. Probably only about 1% of the population is infectious with it at any given time, and that's what keep the number of outbreaks at the level where the media still like to report about it ("20 people attended a wedding and 18 tested positive a week later").

I think that a lot of people have factored this into their personal risk assessment --- it's still the case that a lot of people do not know many others who have had it, certainly not badly. You don't have to go full Toby Young to decide that this is just another thing to add to the pile of life's hassles, along with Brexit, Trump, rent, your relationships, possible unemployment, etc. Of course, the fact that people don't know a lot of others who have had it is partly (or very substantially) a result of the lockdown, but we are very good at discounting.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:07 am

There's especially the sense that if a lot of time has gone by and you still haven't caught it, that you subjectively feel at less and less risk of catching it. So people start to feel like they can relax a bit.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:17 am

But at the same time, the news here is the most transmission is within "family units" or something, which of course requires that a member of the family catches it somewhere else first.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by mediocrity511 » Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:41 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:17 am
But at the same time, the news here is the most transmission is within "family units" or something, which of course requires that a member of the family catches it somewhere else first.
Yes, that particular nugget of information has been driving me mad. It's just so obvious that people who eat together, sleep in the same bed, share bathrooms and spend extensive amount of time with would be where most transmission occurs. But unless you somehow break up households, so everyone lives individually or mandate PPE when at home, it's an unsolvable issue. And it's the one form of transmission that lockdown has no effect on.

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by bob sterman » Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:05 pm

mediocrity511 wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:41 pm
shpalman wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:17 am
But at the same time, the news here is the most transmission is within "family units" or something, which of course requires that a member of the family catches it somewhere else first.
Yes, that particular nugget of information has been driving me mad. It's just so obvious that people who eat together, sleep in the same bed, share bathrooms and spend extensive amount of time with would be where most transmission occurs. But unless you somehow break up households, so everyone lives individually or mandate PPE when at home, it's an unsolvable issue. And it's the one form of transmission that lockdown has no effect on.
Well there were reports that in Wuhan the Chinese did break up some households to reduce within-family transmission - with infected family members being moved (sometimes less than voluntarily) to quarantine/treatment centres.

Here I think there is some scope for breaking some household transmission chains by offering moderately symptomatic cases somewhere to go - voluntarily. Currently it's stay home until you absolutely 100% need hopsitalisation. What if there were treatment centres for the moderately ill - e.g. even just sports halls with food provision and some basic nursing care?

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:16 pm

That would have been (and still would be) a better use for the Nightingales, especially as they would have been ready sooner, rather than taking the time to set up fully-equipped ICU beds.

It would instead help a lot if people didn't have to keep going around to each other's houses to help with shopping etc. but rather there were social support systems in place. Didn't people quarantining in Wuhan get regular food deliveries?
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by jimbob » Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:42 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:16 pm
That would have been (and still would be) a better use for the Nightingales, especially as they would have been ready sooner, rather than taking the time to set up fully-equipped ICU beds.

It would instead help a lot if people didn't have to keep going around to each other's houses to help with shopping etc. but rather there were social support systems in place. Didn't people quarantining in Wuhan get regular food deliveries?
Yup, that's what I was saying at the time

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by mediocrity511 » Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:34 am

bob sterman wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:05 pm
mediocrity511 wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:41 pm
shpalman wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:17 am
But at the same time, the news here is the most transmission is within "family units" or something, which of course requires that a member of the family catches it somewhere else first.
Yes, that particular nugget of information has been driving me mad. It's just so obvious that people who eat together, sleep in the same bed, share bathrooms and spend extensive amount of time with would be where most transmission occurs. But unless you somehow break up households, so everyone lives individually or mandate PPE when at home, it's an unsolvable issue. And it's the one form of transmission that lockdown has no effect on.
Well there were reports that in Wuhan the Chinese did break up some households to reduce within-family transmission - with infected family members being moved (sometimes less than voluntarily) to quarantine/treatment centres.

Here I think there is some scope for breaking some household transmission chains by offering moderately symptomatic cases somewhere to go - voluntarily. Currently it's stay home until you absolutely 100% need hopsitalisation. What if there were treatment centres for the moderately ill - e.g. even just sports halls with food provision and some basic nursing care?
I think this would be a really important thing to offer families with vulnerable household members. At the moment, the guidelines do say you can remove anyone vulnerable from the household but obviously that's dependent on somewhere to go. It could be a game changer for those in multigenerational households.

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by bob sterman » Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:24 am

mediocrity511 wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:34 am
I think this would be a really important thing to offer families with vulnerable household members. At the moment, the guidelines do say you can remove anyone vulnerable from the household but obviously that's dependent on somewhere to go. It could be a game changer for those in multigenerational households.
Absolutely.

And also it could potentially be a big help for people who are a lot more ill than they think. At the moment - unless you're ready to call an ambulance there's no chance of getting anyone to check you over if you're COVID positive. GPs won't see you.

Bedding down in a sports hall - with sandwiches and tea - you could perhaps get a check from nurse once per day. Roaming with a thermometer and oximeter.

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by jimbob » Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:10 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:24 am
mediocrity511 wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:34 am
I think this would be a really important thing to offer families with vulnerable household members. At the moment, the guidelines do say you can remove anyone vulnerable from the household but obviously that's dependent on somewhere to go. It could be a game changer for those in multigenerational households.
Absolutely.

And also it could potentially be a big help for people who are a lot more ill than they think. At the moment - unless you're ready to call an ambulance there's no chance of getting anyone to check you over if you're COVID positive. GPs won't see you.

Bedding down in a sports hall - with sandwiches and tea - you could perhaps get a check from nurse once per day. Roaming with a thermometer and oximeter.
That is also part of what South Korea did.

Not just China
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by shpalman » Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:09 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:26 am
shpalman wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 7:54 am
... shutting contact sports back down, so that would at least knacker the dance lessons. Unless the same dancers who said DAnCiNg iS a ConTact sPOrt WE ARE allowEd To dO it will now switch to dANCiNG iSn't REallY a cOntACT sport We ShOUld bE AllowED to KEEp DoinG It.
That is indeed exactly what the guy who runs our dance school just said.

Of course the ministerial decrees and regional ordinances don't list every single sport; the last one just said something like "you can do sport, including contact sport, just follow the guidelines from your governing body" and the dance governing body (which barely acknowledges that anyone would want to dance socially and not just for competitions) just said "give non-competitive couples 10 square metres each" on top of all the other usual rules for physical activity and stuff. And for sure no dance school is actually giving couples 10 square metres. (Individual physical activity requires 2 metre spacing between the participants, some dance schools have marked out 2-metre-by-2-metre squares, which they then ignore. It was hard enough explaining the difference between metres and square metres to the guy who runs our dance school, and I could barely mark out 8 squares of 8 square metres each in the place where I give lessons while he kept insisting we'd be able to get 10 couples in and the dance teachers didn't count as needing space.)

So the next decree, due tomorrow, won't have anything specific in it about dance schools either; I'm sure what we'll get is lots of people saying "it's not clear" when it's fairly obvious that it's not allowed but they're trying to find a way in which they can do it anyway.
Actually, it's been pointed out to me that there's an addendum to the text of the law itself (and I have checked the veracity of this by going to the website of the government and looking at the PDF) which does list all the different sports, including dances, and says that they can only be done "individually".

This basically means that they can't be done at all, because they're partner dances.

We might do tonight's lesson anyway but it's not looking good.

Still, this law is only in force for a month and we can hope it does its job to reduce cases so we won't need to extend it.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by headshot » Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:56 pm

A Shag event in South Carolina (without any masks or social distancing measures - go figure...) has so far been responsible for 90 infections and 4 deaths.

Social dancing is the worst possible activity in these times: https://www.facebook.com/Azartony/posts ... 4764316284

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Hunting Dog » Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:58 pm

headshot wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:56 pm
A Shag event in South Carolina (without any masks or social distancing measures - go figure...) has so far been responsible for 90 infections and 4 deaths.

Social dancing is the worst possible activity in these times: https://www.facebook.com/Azartony/posts ... 4764316284
by UK definition a mass 'shag event' wouldn't be good either... (had never heard of that as a dance name before)

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by shpalman » Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:59 pm

headshot wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:56 pm
A Shag event in South Carolina (without any masks or social distancing measures - go figure...) has so far been responsible for 90 infections and 4 deaths.

Social dancing is the worst possible activity in these times: https://www.facebook.com/Azartony/posts ... 4764316284
Doesn't surprise me. What surprises me is not hearing about things like this happening here in February just before the lockdown.

But it seemed like lessons could continue, with various protocols in place (measuring body temperature on the way in, limiting the number in the class, space between couples) and not swapping partners. Of course it's not zero risk like that either but it's a fair bit different to a social evening.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by shpalman » Wed Oct 14, 2020 3:03 pm

Hunting Dog wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:58 pm
headshot wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:56 pm
A Shag event in South Carolina (without any masks or social distancing measures - go figure...) has so far been responsible for 90 infections and 4 deaths.

Social dancing is the worst possible activity in these times: https://www.facebook.com/Azartony/posts ... 4764316284
by UK definition a mass 'shag event' wouldn't be good either... (had never heard of that as a dance name before)
In the US 'shag' doesn't have that connotation which means the Italians don't know it either.

But then Carolina shag is the least-known kind of shag over here - if anyone dances shag at all, it's collegiate shag. St. Louis shag has been seen but it didn't catch on in the same way.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:05 pm

Hunting Dog wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:58 pm
headshot wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:56 pm
A Shag event in South Carolina (without any masks or social distancing measures - go figure...) has so far been responsible for 90 infections and 4 deaths.

Social dancing is the worst possible activity in these times: https://www.facebook.com/Azartony/posts ... 4764316284
by UK definition a mass 'shag event' wouldn't be good either... (had never heard of that as a dance name before)
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by shpalman » Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:56 pm

shpalman wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:59 pm
headshot wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:56 pm
A Shag event in South Carolina (without any masks or social distancing measures - go figure...) has so far been responsible for 90 infections and 4 deaths.

Social dancing is the worst possible activity in these times: https://www.facebook.com/Azartony/posts ... 4764316284
Doesn't surprise me. What surprises me is not hearing about things like this happening here in February just before the lockdown.

But it seemed like lessons could continue, with various protocols in place (measuring body temperature on the way in, limiting the number in the class, space between couples) and not swapping partners. Of course it's not zero risk like that either but it's a fair bit different to a social evening.
Looks like the Lombardy Region just decided to shut down all contact sport anyway, including training, even if it’s within a sport association, so that's no more dance lessons for at least a month.

Well, solo jazz might be allowed since it can be done with 2 metres between people.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by headshot » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:46 am

shpalman wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:59 pm
headshot wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:56 pm
A Shag event in South Carolina (without any masks or social distancing measures - go figure...) has so far been responsible for 90 infections and 4 deaths.

Social dancing is the worst possible activity in these times: https://www.facebook.com/Azartony/posts ... 4764316284
Doesn't surprise me. What surprises me is not hearing about things like this happening here in February just before the lockdown.
I was at California Balboa Classic in LA with around 800 people from all over the world at the end of January. We were in Orange County, where one of America’s first deaths was announced a week later. We also went to Disneyland and took no precautions at all. I’m amazed there were no report of infection from that.

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by bob sterman » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:55 am

Should we rename this thread the "re-not-a-lockdown".

At the highest COVID alert level "very high"- Tier 3...

- You can still sit and eat a meal indoors in a restaurant (obviously no mask).
- Schools and universities are open (no face coverings required in classes).
- Churches remain open.
- Organised sport can still take place.

That's the highest level of restrictions - for "very high" risk areas.

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by shpalman » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:02 am

bob sterman wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:55 am
Should we rename this thread the "re-not-a-lockdown".

At the highest COVID alert level "very high"- Tier 3...

- You can still sit and eat a meal indoors in a restaurant (obviously no mask).
- Schools and universities are open (no face coverings required in classes).
- Churches remain open.
- Organised sport can still take place.

That's the highest level of restrictions - for "very high" risk areas.
In some ways that's less locked down than the unlockdown in Italy in July.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by discovolante » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:12 am

Access to libraries is still very restricted here.

Which means I can't access reference books that I need for exams in just over 2 weeks. I had been waiting, but no dice. f.cking brilliant :roll:

I mean I could just buy every other textbook going vaguely related to the subjects and hope that they have the info I'm looking for - there are some quite specific gaps in the material I have at the moment, and I needed in particular to check the main practitioner book (partly because if the info ain't there, it probably isn't anywhere so I don't need to worry as much - but it costs £1400 to buy) - but that seems...disproportionate, and expensive, even if I can sell some of them on ebay afterwards. And this is just for one of the six exams I'm taking.

This issue doesn't seem to have been taken into consideration by the exam regulator.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by shpalman » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:48 am

The score in the Inter-Milan derby is 5-2

That's not goals, that's how many positive covid cases they've had amongst their players.

And yet this game will go ahead today in front of 1000 spectators despite contact sports being banned for everyone else.

f.cking b.llsh.t.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by shpalman » Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:50 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:48 am
The score in the Inter-Milan derby is 5-2

That's not goals, that's how many positive covid cases they've had amongst their players.

And yet this game will go ahead today in front of 1000 spectators despite contact sports being banned for everyone else.

f.cking b.llsh.t.
Just so you know, this is some of the stupid f.cking b.llsh.t which wasn't apparently banned along with the ordinance against contact sports which means that kids can't go to soccer practice and we can't do partner-dance lessons.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by science_fox » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:04 pm

I wish I lived in NZ*. It's a country I've never actually visited so I'm sure it's mostly just greener grass, but sometimes it seems like the only sensible place in the world. And somewhere that has managed to keep a lid on the 2nd wave so far. By locking down properly the first time, and tracing etc thoroughly (which requires low case numbers to do) they're back to almost normally - apart from presumably quarantining all incoming travelers. We could do this. But we won't.


*this is a more frequent thought than just during a brexit/pandemic f.ckup, it seems like a temperate, pretty, open country with sensible politicians (and hence people).

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