Covid-19 the re-lockdown

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plodder
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by plodder » Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:50 pm

There's definitely a spirit of rebellion in the air.
dyqik wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:57 pm
plodder wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:56 pm
It takes time and skill to make a presentation where technical detail is translated to a lay audience. I think the piss poor powerpoint suggests this decision was made very recently.
Just adding an alternative reason for piss poor PowerPoint presentation...
I'm prepared to believe the Sage lot have skill, which leaves "cobbled together at the last minute" as the most plausible explanation

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Fishnut » Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:54 pm

plodder wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:50 pm
There's definitely a spirit of rebellion in the air.
dyqik wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:57 pm
plodder wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:56 pm
It takes time and skill to make a presentation where technical detail is translated to a lay audience. I think the piss poor powerpoint suggests this decision was made very recently.
Just adding an alternative reason for piss poor PowerPoint presentation...
I'm prepared to believe the Sage lot have skill, which leaves "cobbled together at the last minute" as the most plausible explanation
I'm sure they have a lot of skill at doing technical presentations. Presentations to a general audience, probably not so much.

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by dyqik » Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:40 pm

plodder wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:50 pm
There's definitely a spirit of rebellion in the air.
dyqik wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:57 pm
plodder wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:56 pm
It takes time and skill to make a presentation where technical detail is translated to a lay audience. I think the piss poor powerpoint suggests this decision was made very recently.
Just adding an alternative reason for piss poor PowerPoint presentation...
I'm prepared to believe the Sage lot have skill, which leaves "cobbled together at the last minute" as the most plausible explanation
Public presentation to a lay audience is a skill sadly absent in most experts...

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Sciolus » Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:45 pm

discovolante wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:22 pm
ETA also Señor von Laté reckons he was late because he was having a stress poo.
You know that Mencken line about "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." It occurs to me that the same could be applied to Johnson's career aspirations.

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:47 pm

Was the problem that the graphics didn't fit on the slide properly, or that the BBC didn't display the presentation correctly?

Running the rolling news headlines over the slideshow suggests the latter was at least partly to blame. I'm sure we've all been present at meetings etc. where the projector has cut off bits of someone's slides because the wrong settings were selected.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:14 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:47 pm
Was the problem that the graphics didn't fit on the slide properly, or that the BBC didn't display the presentation correctly?
The latter. People who watched on Sky News have reported that the slides fit their screen OK.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:56 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:14 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:47 pm
Was the problem that the graphics didn't fit on the slide properly, or that the BBC didn't display the presentation correctly?
The latter. People who watched on Sky News have reported that the slides fit their screen OK.
Ok, cheers. There's enough to criticise the government for without getting distracted by things that weren't their fault ;)

The graphics themselves aren't great for public consumption, though. If I were running a pandemics taskforce I'd get a couple of data visualisation specialists preparing the kind of easily foreseeable graphics I'd need in advance, then just update them before my presentation.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:06 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:56 pm
sTeamTraen wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:14 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:47 pm
Was the problem that the graphics didn't fit on the slide properly, or that the BBC didn't display the presentation correctly?
The latter. People who watched on Sky News have reported that the slides fit their screen OK.
Ok, cheers. There's enough to criticise the government for without getting distracted by things that weren't their fault ;)

The graphics themselves aren't great for public consumption, though. If I were running a pandemics taskforce I'd get a couple of data visualisation specialists preparing the kind of easily foreseeable graphics I'd need in advance, then just update them before my presentation.
Do we know if the slides are made available online? Even if they are correctly framed, they disappear after 30 seconds...
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by plodder » Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:32 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:56 pm
sTeamTraen wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:14 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:47 pm
Was the problem that the graphics didn't fit on the slide properly, or that the BBC didn't display the presentation correctly?
The latter. People who watched on Sky News have reported that the slides fit their screen OK.
Ok, cheers. There's enough to criticise the government for without getting distracted by things that weren't their fault ;)

The graphics themselves aren't great for public consumption, though. If I were running a pandemics taskforce I'd get a couple of data visualisation specialists preparing the kind of easily foreseeable graphics I'd need in advance, then just update them before my presentation.
These were particularly confusing though. Suggests the underlying argument is either extremely weak or extremely complex. There are rumours going round that Cummings is insisting a "systems approach" is taken, where all the factors are considered to create more holistic decision making. Unless the data is shite, that is.

In other news apparently the track n trace app has been inadvertently set to the wrong trigger level all summer, which is why hardly anyone has been contacted, and is also why people have been getting weird "you've been near someone with covid" messages but no instruction to self-isolate.

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:11 am

plodder wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:32 pm
In other news apparently the track n trace app has been inadvertently set to the wrong trigger level all summer, which is why hardly anyone has been contacted, and is also why people have been getting weird "you've been near someone with covid" messages but no instruction to self-isolate.
sh.t, really?! Anyone got a link?
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by jdc » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:38 am

"Shockingly low" numbers of users have been sent warnings about potential exposures due to the app having the wrong risk threshold set for recording contacts between people, as The Sunday Times first reported.

While the technology should have been recognising people as having been in close enough proximity for a transmission, it had instead recorded that they were too far away for the virus to be passed between them.

Sky News has independently confirmed the issue, and also learnt that a large proportion of the phantom notifications about exposures - which the Department for Health told users to ignore - were actually real.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... r-12120910

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:47 am

jdc wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:38 am
"Shockingly low" numbers of users have been sent warnings about potential exposures due to the app having the wrong risk threshold set for recording contacts between people, as The Sunday Times first reported.

While the technology should have been recognising people as having been in close enough proximity for a transmission, it had instead recorded that they were too far away for the virus to be passed between them.

Sky News has independently confirmed the issue, and also learnt that a large proportion of the phantom notifications about exposures - which the Department for Health told users to ignore - were actually real.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... r-12120910
FFS. So they were aware of the issue before the app's launch, but didn't get around to changing it.

What the actual f.ck is wrong with these clowns?

And the government spokesperson quoted as saying the app should be considered internationally excellent because it uses the very latest technology is surely taking the piss - there's no point using fancy tech if the way you're using it is known to be wrong.

So they've been giving exposed people a false sense of security by telling them to ignore notifications from the app they've been told to rely on. Super duper. Not that people can necessarily afford to respond to warnings from the app anyway, seeing as how they don't get any government support for doing so.

What an incompetent shower of w.nkers.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Gfamily » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:15 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:47 am
jdc wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:38 am
"Shockingly low" numbers of users have been sent warnings about potential exposures due to the app having the wrong risk threshold set for recording contacts between people, as The Sunday Times first reported.

While the technology should have been recognising people as having been in close enough proximity for a transmission, it had instead recorded that they were too far away for the virus to be passed between them.

Sky News has independently confirmed the issue, and also learnt that a large proportion of the phantom notifications about exposures - which the Department for Health told users to ignore - were actually real.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... r-12120910
FFS. So they were aware of the issue before the app's launch, but didn't get around to changing it.

What the actual f.ck is wrong with these clowns?

And the government spokesperson quoted as saying the app should be considered internationally excellent because it uses the very latest technology is surely taking the piss - there's no point using fancy tech if the way you're using it is known to be wrong.

So they've been giving exposed people a false sense of security by telling them to ignore notifications from the app they've been told to rely on. Super duper. Not that people can necessarily afford to respond to warnings from the app anyway, seeing as how they don't get any government support for doing so.

What an incompetent shower of w.nkers.
FOR CRYING OUT LOUD, we used to have a Civil Service that was the envy of the world. - Or at least, we could pretend that we had a CStwteotw.
But, a competent, established, independent Civil Service stood in the way of this shower, so they were sidelined.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by badger » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:49 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:14 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:47 pm
Was the problem that the graphics didn't fit on the slide properly, or that the BBC didn't display the presentation correctly?
The latter. People who watched on Sky News have reported that the slides fit their screen OK.
it wasn't just the ticker on the bottom that hid slide info, both left and right hand side, and top of slides were cut off at different points (as I recall only one or perhaps two sides at most for any slide). Piss poor from BBC if Sky managed it. But also incumbent on presenter to make sure it's going to work. Sending test slides in advance, for instance. (Like during the two and a half hour postponement).

I would love to see a Thick Of It spin off, perhaps called Friday Night Leaks, about the govt during the pandemic. At least in my head there's a scene where PM, Right Hand Man, Scientific Advisors are all crowded round a laptop going through PowerPoint Help trying to get their slides to make sense, while delaying the Press Conference because someone's set the font to WingDings and they can't get it back.

back in reality, I believe all slides are put up somewhere on gov.uk or PHE site.

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:23 pm

plodder wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:32 pm
In other news apparently the track n trace app has been inadvertently set to the wrong trigger level all summer, which is why hardly anyone has been contacted, and is also why people have been getting weird "you've been near someone with covid" messages but no instruction to self-isolate.
I thought that the bit I've bolded here was a previously known problem, and possibly not actually the app's fault? But it's hard to keep up.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by plodder » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:56 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:23 pm
plodder wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:32 pm
In other news apparently the track n trace app has been inadvertently set to the wrong trigger level all summer, which is why hardly anyone has been contacted, and is also why people have been getting weird "you've been near someone with covid" messages but no instruction to self-isolate.
I thought that the bit I've bolded here was a previously known problem, and possibly not actually the app's fault? But it's hard to keep up.
We were told it was a thingummy and just a bit of a bug because no-one realised the trigger level was wrong.

Presumably the T&T app is also a major source of data for policy makers, which may be why wave 2 seems to have caught them by surprise. It also potentially explains why the T&T teams have been sat idle and why other aspects of the covid response have looked off-kilter. Do we know how much depended on the app?

do - check - review is a pretty basic sign-off procedure for things like trigger levels, and it evidently wasn't done. Amateurs.

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by jimbob » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:19 pm

plodder wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:56 pm
sTeamTraen wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:23 pm
plodder wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:32 pm
In other news apparently the track n trace app has been inadvertently set to the wrong trigger level all summer, which is why hardly anyone has been contacted, and is also why people have been getting weird "you've been near someone with covid" messages but no instruction to self-isolate.
I thought that the bit I've bolded here was a previously known problem, and possibly not actually the app's fault? But it's hard to keep up.
We were told it was a thingummy and just a bit of a bug because no-one realised the trigger level was wrong.

Presumably the T&T app is also a major source of data for policy makers, which may be why wave 2 seems to have caught them by surprise. It also potentially explains why the T&T teams have been sat idle and why other aspects of the covid response have looked off-kilter. Do we know how much depended on the app?

do - check - review is a pretty basic sign-off procedure for things like trigger levels, and it evidently wasn't done. Amateurs.
I don't know, maybe they could have had someone plot the infections, hospitalisations and deaths on log scales, and use a ruler to predict where the epidemic was going in the UK
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by jimbob » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:38 pm

jimbob wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:19 pm
plodder wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:56 pm
sTeamTraen wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:23 pm


I thought that the bit I've bolded here was a previously known problem, and possibly not actually the app's fault? But it's hard to keep up.
We were told it was a thingummy and just a bit of a bug because no-one realised the trigger level was wrong.

Presumably the T&T app is also a major source of data for policy makers, which may be why wave 2 seems to have caught them by surprise. It also potentially explains why the T&T teams have been sat idle and why other aspects of the covid response have looked off-kilter. Do we know how much depended on the app?

do - check - review is a pretty basic sign-off procedure for things like trigger levels, and it evidently wasn't done. Amateurs.
I don't know, maybe they could have had someone plot the infections, hospitalisations and deaths on log scales, and use a ruler to predict where the epidemic was going in the UK
I've just plotted hospitalisations and deaths* and it looks to me as though hospitalisations slightly lag deaths.
Screenshot 2020-11-02 212935.png
Screenshot 2020-11-02 212935.png (40.63 KiB) Viewed 209 times
*assuming that there are issues with testing that makes cases less reliable
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:18 pm

jimbob wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:38 pm
I've just plotted hospitalisations and deaths* and it looks to me as though hospitalisations slightly lag deaths.
In the first wave, that seems plausible - lots of people died at home or in a care home without getting near a hospital.

More recently, might there be an effect of randomness when deaths get down towards single figures?
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by jimbob » Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:04 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:18 pm
jimbob wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:38 pm
I've just plotted hospitalisations and deaths* and it looks to me as though hospitalisations slightly lag deaths.
In the first wave, that seems plausible - lots of people died at home or in a care home without getting near a hospital.

More recently, might there be an effect of randomness when deaths get down towards single figures?
That sounds plausible. The trough was very flat and low. I was surprised that there wasn't more of a lag though.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Gfamily » Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:38 pm

Weird times we live in.
Burger King are suggesting that people eat from their local take away restaurants - regardless of the 'brand'.

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:33 am

Students told not to rush home from uni.

Yeah, best of luck with that. Stay locked up in your 12ft x 7ft room with all campus services closed, or back to Mum and Dad where home cooking and your favourite gonk awaits. (I guess there will be a few who really don't want to go back to a difficult family situation, though :( .)
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by bob sterman » Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:03 am

Well the gap between the announcement and implementation of the re-lockdown is certainly going to give R a boost. Even educated, normally sensible, people I know are planning to squeeze in last minute Wednesday night congregations at the pub.

People seem to treat it like a storm/hurricane warning - i.e. as if the danger doesn't arrive until Thursday.

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by AMS » Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:19 am

bob sterman wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:03 am
Well the gap between the announcement and implementation of the re-lockdown is certainly going to give R a boost. Even educated, normally sensible, people I know are planning to squeeze in last minute Wednesday night congregations at the pub.

People seem to treat it like a storm/hurricane warning - i.e. as if the danger doesn't arrive until Thursday.
That's why I didn't understand the delay. Someone said it was so there was time to get the Commons to vote on it. For a question as big and urgent as this, they could have been called in to vote any time from Sunday morning onwards.

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Hunting Dog » Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:54 am

bob sterman wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:03 am
Well the gap between the announcement and implementation of the re-lockdown is certainly going to give R a boost. Even educated, normally sensible, people I know are planning to squeeze in last minute Wednesday night congregations at the pub.

People seem to treat it like a storm/hurricane warning - i.e. as if the danger doesn't arrive until Thursday.
I'm reasonably educated and normally sensible, but must admit I'm contemplating doing some local shopping before the non-essential shops close.

Mainly to support the poor buggers, we've found we can order anything we really need online. Except light-bulbs, the success rate for getting intact light-bulbs delivered is quite low!

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