Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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discovolante
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by discovolante » Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:12 am

Compare and contrast:

https://twitter.com/andrewlearmonth/sta ... 9158915072
Boris Johnson: "The furlough scheme is a UK wide scheme. If other parts of the UK decide to go into measures which require the furlough scheme then of course it's available to them, that has to be right. And that applies not just now, but, of course, in the future as well."
https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/sta ... 5338142721
Robert Jenrick on Sky news just now appeared to walk back PM’s commitment yesterday. Said 80% furlough to devolved nations in lockdown after December will be a decision for the chancellor to take at the time.
Yeah don't mind us guys, we'll just sit here patiently waiting while you decide between yourselves whether lives north and west of the border are worth as much as London ones :roll:
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by bob sterman » Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:14 am

Hunting Dog wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:54 am
bob sterman wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:03 am
Well the gap between the announcement and implementation of the re-lockdown is certainly going to give R a boost. Even educated, normally sensible, people I know are planning to squeeze in last minute Wednesday night congregations at the pub.

People seem to treat it like a storm/hurricane warning - i.e. as if the danger doesn't arrive until Thursday.
I'm reasonably educated and normally sensible, but must admit I'm contemplating doing some local shopping before the non-essential shops close.

Mainly to support the poor buggers, we've found we can order anything we really need online. Except light-bulbs, the success rate for getting intact light-bulbs delivered is quite low!
Oh yes - bit of local shopping is understandable and not such a big problem (e.g. with masks etc). I'm talking about people going to pubs (which will no doubt be packed) for a pre-lockdown session!

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by jimbob » Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:15 pm

Israel's second lockdown is starting to have an impact on deaths as well as cases:

Image
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Turdly » Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:06 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:33 am
Students told not to rush home from uni.

Yeah, best of luck with that. Stay locked up in your 12ft x 7ft room with all campus services closed, or back to Mum and Dad where home cooking and your favourite gonk awaits. (I guess there will be a few who really don't want to go back to a difficult family situation, though :( .)
The VC wrote:Services on campus:

Our libraries, essential support services, study spaces, and halls of residence will remain open, following all government guidelines. Our catering facilities will operate as a takeaway service only, however the Arts Tower Cafe and View Deli will close due to low demand. In addition, we are also assessing what the new lockdown means for Sport Sheffield and will update our website with more information as soon as possible: https://www.sport-sheffield.com

We continue to work closely with the Students' Union to support them to deliver enhanced provision of face-to-face social and physical activities on campus, within Covid guidelines, to help students develop communities and friendships and to reduce isolation and loneliness. We can confirm that the Students' Union will remain open as a study space with a coffee delivery service and shop.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:41 pm

Turdly wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:06 pm
The VC wrote:Services on campus:

Our libraries, essential support services, study spaces, and halls of residence will remain open, following all government guidelines. Our catering facilities will operate as a takeaway service only, however the Arts Tower Cafe and View Deli will close due to low demand. In addition, we are also assessing what the new lockdown means for Sport Sheffield and will update our website with more information as soon as possible: https://www.sport-sheffield.com

We continue to work closely with the Students' Union to support them to deliver enhanced provision of face-to-face social and physical activities on campus, within Covid guidelines, to help students develop communities and friendships and to reduce isolation and loneliness. We can confirm that the Students' Union will remain open as a study space with a coffee delivery service and shop.
Cool - well done Sheffield.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:11 pm

First time around there were weirdly few cases in Milan.

Not so this time.

This is a graphic of the number of new cases each week per 100,000 inhabitants.
IMG_20201103_191018_722.jpg
IMG_20201103_191018_722.jpg (53.92 KiB) Viewed 721 times
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Sciolus » Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:32 am

I see chiropractors and osteopaths are considered to be "medical or health services" that can stay open.

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by shpalman » Sat Nov 07, 2020 1:52 pm

Nobody has come to Bormio to ski!
bormio.jpg
bormio.jpg (153.94 KiB) Viewed 543 times
It's because there's no snow you fucknuts. It's November. It's 10.0°C at 2000 metres. Oh and there's a f.cking pandemic on.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Nov 07, 2020 2:12 pm

I wonder what they're going to end up doing with all the ski resorts that get ruined by climate change.

Artificial snow outside is a non-starter in warm conditions, and I think covering them all in plastic bristles is probably also prohibitively expensive as well as aesthetically unappealing and ecologically problematic.

Some other downhill sport is my suggestion. Offroad skateboards are a thing, with bigger wheels and rubber tyres. Or go-carts.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Turdly » Sat Nov 07, 2020 6:32 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 2:12 pm
I wonder what they're going to end up doing with all the ski resorts that get ruined by climate change.

Artificial snow outside is a non-starter in warm conditions, and I think covering them all in plastic bristles is probably also prohibitively expensive as well as aesthetically unappealing and ecologically problematic.

Some other downhill sport is my suggestion. Offroad skateboards are a thing, with bigger wheels and rubber tyres. Or go-carts.
Whistler, and a lot of the Alps etc. are mountain biking havens in the warmer weather.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by nezumi » Sat Nov 07, 2020 9:14 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 2:12 pm

Some other downhill sport is my suggestion. Offroad skateboards are a thing, with bigger wheels and rubber tyres. Or go-carts.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:31 pm

nezumi wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 9:14 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 2:12 pm

Some other downhill sport is my suggestion. Offroad skateboards are a thing, with bigger wheels and rubber tyres. Or go-carts.
Natural selection thanks you for your contribution.
I never managed to go particularly fast on my friend's offroad skateboard. Mind you, I never did it up the Alps.

Surely my suggestions can't be more dangerous than skiing? And that's a sport for drunk posh people.
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bob sterman
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by bob sterman » Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:00 pm

This re-lockdown just isn't really happening.

Just from local experience I know of...

- Kids sent home from school to self-isolate - going to McDonalds.
- Family who are meant to be self-isolating - going for walks.
- Someone popping to the supermarket while waiting for the results of a COVID test.
- Students getting ill on campus and not requesting tests because they don't want the hassle.
- Teenager comes home appears to have fever. Parents say "we won't order a test just for that - let's see how he is tomorrow".

We are basically living with something close to what the likes of Heneghan, Sikora, Gupta et al want. Most people doing pretty much what they want - most of the time.

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:39 pm

To be honest I think going for walks is probably fine, as long as they mask up and avoid busy places. Obviously going indoors to restaurants, supermarkets etc. is totally irresponsible, but it's really f.cking gruelling being trapped in the house all day every day for a fortnight on the offchance.

But yes, it's pretty disastrous that so many western governments squandered the opportunity to get this under control earlier in the year, and then spent the summer encouraging foreign travel and visiting restaurants and stuff, because now the novelty's worn off and doing something horrible, for a long time, again, just because of a low risk of affecting somebody else is a pretty tough sell.

I'm not sure what the solution is, to be honest (though keeping restaurants open isn't really in the spirit of a lockdown). I mean, it would be useful if people could actually be tested instead of just being told to stay at home for a fortnight. But beyond that you need to encourage people in general to make personal sacrifices to benefit others in society, which is a deeply unfashionable idea in the UK that governments (inter alia) have spent decades attacking.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by raven » Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:08 am

But beyond that you need to encourage people in general to make personal sacrifices to benefit others in society, which is a deeply unfashionable idea in the UK that governments (inter alia) have spent decades attacking.
But not Christmas.

Apparently, that's a sacrifice too far and we have to make an exception. Like the exceptions we made for Eid and Diwali, right?

Bunch of fecking idiots.

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Hunting Dog » Thu Nov 19, 2020 6:48 pm

raven wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:08 am
But beyond that you need to encourage people in general to make personal sacrifices to benefit others in society, which is a deeply unfashionable idea in the UK that governments (inter alia) have spent decades attacking.
But not Christmas.

Apparently, that's a sacrifice too far and we have to make an exception. Like the exceptions we made for Eid and Diwali, right?

Bunch of fecking idiots.
I'm so bl..dy pissed off about the concentration on Christmas - partly because of the contrast with Eid and Diwali - partly selfishly because I don't actually want to go travel to see in-laws, or mingle indoors with friends, and risk my health and that of Mr Hunting Dog (no specific risk factors but he's 60 and I'm catching up)

So if they do relax things we have to explain why we're not prepared to join in with Xmas events and fend off the friends/family that already think we're abnormal for not pushing the limits of things that were allowed pre 2nd lockdown. And, then in payment for this 'privilege' probably get more restrictions on the things that really are doing in my mental health, like not being able to go to the gym, or have parkruns restarted. :(

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by mediocrity511 » Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:37 pm

I've heard talk of schools breaking up early for Christmas so students can isolate before seeing vulnerable family members. If that's the case, my head will explode, given that children with clinically extremely vulnerable people in their household are still mandated to attend every day.

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by nezumi » Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:46 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:39 pm
To be honest I think going for walks is probably fine, as long as they mask up and avoid busy places. Obviously going indoors to restaurants, supermarkets etc. is totally irresponsible, but it's really f.cking gruelling being trapped in the house all day every day for a fortnight on the offchance.
Sorry mate, I've got to pull you up on that. No it bl..dy isn't. It's 14 days. It is really not a long time. Sure it's a long time in prison, but it's not prison, it's a few days in your own home surrounded by your own things. Sure it's really boring, but the exchange is elderly and vulnerable people being able to leave their houses again, after several months of enforced isolation. Frankly, these people need to man the f.ck up and stay the f.ck in.

14 days... I've had longer naps ;)

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:21 pm

I've been in since March, more or less. Walks are the last thing keeping me sane.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by nezumi » Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:32 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:21 pm
I've been in since March, more or less. Walks are the last thing keeping me sane.
Same, but I can't even take walks as my neighbourhood is dangerous at all hours. Honestly, I have absolutely no sympathy for anyone breaking quarantine.

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by FairySmall » Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:59 pm

I'm definitely short of sympathy for rule breakers atm. FairyTiny's nursery is completely shut for two weeks, which has been baffling many parents as shutting whole settings isn't generally advised. Turns out that some parents hadn't been following the rules, including not isolating when asked to. The result: an outbreak of cases amongst the kids, a couple of hundred people put at risk, and parents having to try to work whilst looking after their pre-schoolers*. And goodness knows how much money the nursery has lost by being shut for two weeks. All because some people won't follow instructions that they are given in writing every single day.

* Hint: this isn't possible. Toddlers can't last more than 5 minutes without demanding food, a wee, or to tell you in excruciating detail about the episode of Hey Duggee they just watched.

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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:26 pm

So is there evidence that walking past somebody in an outdoor setting is likely to spread the virus? I thought it was mostly indoor, close-quarters contacts - especially protracted ones - that were responsible.

Somebody maintaining mask-use, distancing and isolation all year, except for a couple of walks a week, is doing far more to control the virus than somebody merely following government advice to the letter.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Chris Preston » Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:27 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:26 pm
So is there evidence that walking past somebody in an outdoor setting is likely to spread the virus? I thought it was mostly indoor, close-quarters contacts - especially protracted ones - that were responsible.

Somebody maintaining mask-use, distancing and isolation all year, except for a couple of walks a week, is doing far more to control the virus than somebody merely following government advice to the letter.
The argument being made for no exercise in the South Australian lockdown is that it is an uncontrolled activity. Certainly in our last lockdown where leaving your house for exercise was allowed, I would often see on my daily walks little groups of people gathered together having a conversation while ostensibly doing their daily exercise on their own. We lost that privilege this time, because people abused it last time. Once there is less risk, it will probably be the first activity we are allowed back.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Nov 20, 2020 7:28 am

That does seem sensible. To be fair, I think banning exercise is fine as part of a short, intense lockdown, and obviously anybody using it as a fig leaf for risky behaviour is being a tw.t.

On the other hand, if I saw somebody out for a walk instead of isolating I wouldn't be super quick to judge them as irresponsible nor to worry about impacts on transmission. I think it's possible to do it in a way that respects the spirit of lockdown. ETA or self-isolation, as mentioned in Bob's post.
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Re: Covid-19 the re-lockdown

Post by AMS » Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:40 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 7:28 am
That does seem sensible. To be fair, I think banning exercise is fine as part of a short, intense lockdown, and obviously anybody using it as a fig leaf for risky behaviour is being a tw.t.

On the other hand, if I saw somebody out for a walk instead of isolating I wouldn't be super quick to judge them as irresponsible nor to worry about impacts on transmission. I think it's possible to do it in a way that respects the spirit of lockdown. ETA or self-isolation, as mentioned in Bob's post.
I agree, and would add that unless you know them well and they've updated you on their status, you also wouldn't know for sure whether they are supposed to still be in isolation anyway. If they had a positive test that took a few days to come through, or if they were notified as a contact of someone several days earlier, they might be out of their personal isolation window earlier than you might have calculated. And people who've had a positive test are on a different timescale to people waiting to see if they've caught it.

Even in the school bubble setting, where a whole bunch of people know that they've gone into isolation at the same time, the index case could be allowed out before the rest of their bubble (as potentially could any additional cases that test positive very early in the 2 week window), so unless you're absolutely sure who that is, it's best not to rush to judgement.

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