CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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shpalman
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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Mon Nov 30, 2020 8:04 pm

molto tricky

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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by Brightonian » Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:02 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:05 pm
shpalman wrote:
Fri Nov 27, 2020 10:52 am
Gfamily wrote:
Fri Nov 27, 2020 10:45 am
If you're in a low incidence location near to a high incidence place and you go into a lower tier, you'll get a lot of people coming in to your area to enjoy the benefits of being less locked down...
... which would of course be illegal, but practically unenforceable in a country like England.

We Can't stop PEOPlE COmiNG hERe If tHey WaNT tO / CAN'T EXPEcT PeOpLE tO ProVE whErE THey LIVe said every tier 2 pub restaurant owner offering a plate of chips and side salad with every pint because that counts as a "substantial meal".
... or indeed a scotch egg

BUT ThIs is THE TIme OF YEaR When we HAVe The MoSt peOpLE yes that's why you have to stay closed now.
I've had scotch egg meal that I felt was substantial. It was in a bar in Dalston (a hipster area of east London) once. Their scotch eggs were quite expensive, 7 or 8 quid a pop, but it was so good, with an array of pickles and things, that I had a second one as well.

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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by Tessa K » Tue Dec 01, 2020 4:28 pm

Show me a pub that has this sort of Scotch egg and I'll be there in a flash.**

Image

**made almost entirely from sugar, from Fortnum and Mason. One of the nicest things I've ever tasted.

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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:02 pm

The UK relockdown ends at midnight tonight.

In the 7 days leading up to it, there were 22,300 cases and 270 deaths per day.
In the last 7 days there have been 14,900 cases and 460 deaths per day.

The deaths were to some extent baked-in, but the reduction in cases of only 33% tells us that the lockdown has not worked. Compare that with the Netherlands (50% without mandatory masks before today), France (75%), and Belgium (87%), albeit from higher baselines in the latter two cases.

I don't know if there are betting markets for COVID, and I wouldn't bet if I could (I don't bet, and it would be ghoulish), but it I didn't have those scruples, I would be buying:
- 25,000 cases per day before the Christmas spree
- 35,000 cases per day in week 1 of 2021
- 20,000 total deaths in January
:cry:
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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by lpm » Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:18 pm

There's a couple of weeks lag to the figures. The average at 15 Dec will be a better gauge.

But my little spreadsheet gave 13,000 a day by about now, falling to <10,000 mid Dec, rising back to 15,000 by Christmas, up to 30,000 early Jan.

Any civilised person would demand emergency fire break action if cases rose to 13,000. Anyone who unlockdowns because rates have fallen to that level belongs in prison for homicide.
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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Dec 01, 2020 8:18 pm

The effect of the lockdown seemed to be to have cases halving every two weeks. In the second-wave growth phase the doubling time was maybe 8-9 days, it might go up a bit slower than that under the tier system.

I'd expect the rest of this week to keep decreasing and then next week to flatten and then the week of the 14-20 December to start going up again to reach numbers similar to what we have now (13000-15000 per day). It won't seem too bad to people who don't understand that two weeks of exponentially-increasing infections have already happened. The Christmas period itself might look ok just because those cases won't get registered until after it. Well above 20000 per day at the beginning of January.

ETA tl;dr yeah I agree with LPM in the previous post.
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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by jimbob » Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:06 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Dec 01, 2020 8:18 pm
The effect of the lockdown seemed to be to have cases halving every two weeks. In the second-wave growth phase the doubling time was maybe 8-9 days, it might go up a bit slower than that under the tier system.

I'd expect the rest of this week to keep decreasing and then next week to flatten and then the week of the 14-20 December to start going up again to reach numbers similar to what we have now (13000-15000 per day). It won't seem too bad to people who don't understand that two weeks of exponentially-increasing infections have already happened. The Christmas period itself might look ok just because those cases won't get registered until after it. Well above 20000 per day at the beginning of January.

ETA tl;dr yeah I agree with LPM in the previous post.
Yup it's baked in.

And my daughter is now going to start going into 6th form 100% of time rather than 50%
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:30 am

One of the Portuguese government's whizzy cowonaviwus wheezes is to ban travel over long weekends: if there's a public holiday on Friday/Monday/Tuesday, they ban "travelling on public roads" between 11pm on the last workday and 5am on the first, so people don't all go and visit their extended family in the countryside and kill them with viruses.

To make up for the lost time, my wife's adult-education college has decided to schedule a week of practical classes right before the Christmas holiday starts, so instead of a week-long online-learning firebreak everyone's gotta cram into public transport for a week through one of the worst-affected areas in the country. Super smart.
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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:24 am

molto tricky

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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:17 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Nov 27, 2020 11:03 am
Peterborough (in Cambridgeshire, tier 2) is flat at about 200 per 100,000 per week, while South Holland (in Lincolnshire, tier 3) is falling through 150 per 100,000 per week. However, South Holland is next to Boston which is at over 400 per 100,000 per week and you obviously don't want people from Boston all going to pubs in Spalding.
Or these f.ckers going to the pub in York
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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:25 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:18 pm
There's a couple of weeks lag to the figures. The average at 15 Dec will be a better gauge.

But my little spreadsheet gave 13,000 a day by about now, falling to <10,000 mid Dec, rising back to 15,000 by Christmas, up to 30,000 early Jan.

Any civilised person would demand emergency fire break action if cases rose to 13,000. Anyone who unlockdowns because rates have fallen to that level belongs in prison for homicide.
Three weeks on from that prediction and 36 804 cases were reported today.

I guess that counts as worse than predicted.

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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:49 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:25 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:18 pm
There's a couple of weeks lag to the figures. The average at 15 Dec will be a better gauge.
Three weeks on from that prediction and 36 804 cases were reported today.

I guess that counts as worse than predicted.
Mean cases in the last 7 days, per week since lpm wrote that post:
25 Nov-1 Dec: 14945
2-8 Dec: 15383
9-15 Dec: 19789 (probably closer to 21500 after correcting the Welsh reporting cockup)
16-22 Dec: 31863 (probably closer to 30000 after correcting the Welsh reporting cockup)
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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:56 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:49 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:25 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:18 pm
There's a couple of weeks lag to the figures. The average at 15 Dec will be a better gauge.
Three weeks on from that prediction and 36 804 cases were reported today.

I guess that counts as worse than predicted.
Mean cases in the last 7 days, per week since lpm wrote that post:
25 Nov-1 Dec: 14945
2-8 Dec: 15383
9-15 Dec: 19789 (probably closer to 21500 after correcting the Welsh reporting cockup)
16-22 Dec: 31863 (probably closer to 30000 after correcting the Welsh reporting cockup)
Doubling every two weeks. I hope tier 4 has an effect on the new variant. If not we’re looking at 60 000 per day by the end of the first week in January

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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by lpm » Tue Dec 22, 2020 10:08 pm

The downwards curve stalling at 15,000 is pretty bad. November lockdown wasn't strong enough, then moving to the inadequate tiers system was an obvious mistake.

The Covid deniers are right - lockdowns don't work in the UK. They don't work because the Covid deniers pressure the govt to start them late, be too loose and end too early. We are never going to reach a point when the burden can be handed to test and trace at low daily levels.

A policy recommendation should always take into account the existence of a major factor - in this case a sh.t government with a dithering leader who f.cks everything up. By ignoring this the Sage etc advisers failed to correctly analyse the disease situation.

The govt obviously now intends to run it hot, lie about NHS collapse and wave the vaccine flag.
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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Tue Dec 22, 2020 10:41 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 10:08 pm
The govt obviously now intends to run it hot, lie about NHS collapse and wave the vaccine flag.
Part of me thinks "They can't possibly be planning to blame Brexit disruption on COVID, can they?", but then I look at what's going on now --- which, if it extends to the end of the month, will provide perfect cover --- and I think "f.ck me, yes, they can and they will".

The worst thing is, they may even be right (politically) to do so. People find discounting very easy; they can only reproach a government of one or two things, and after that it's mostly nebulous feelings, which meant that the Tories could have run Ted Heath against Corbyn and won. Think about the 10th through 20th worst things that Trump has done, any of which would have meant political death for any preceding President, not excluding GW Bush; everyone got so used to sh.t from him that it lost its capacity to shock. A party that would once have worried over an 0.2% reduction in GDP growth when in power, and criticised opposition plans in an election campaign if they had an economist's forecast that those plans would cost 0.1% in GDP growth, is about to pile a 10% drop in GDP on top of a 5% one because f.ck it, in for a penny.
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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Dec 23, 2020 5:07 am

lpm wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 10:08 pm
The Covid deniers are right - lockdowns don't work in the UK. They don't work because the Covid deniers pressure the govt to start them late, be too loose and end too early. We are never going to reach a point when the burden can be handed to test and trace at low daily levels.

A policy recommendation should always take into account the existence of a major factor - in this case a sh.t government with a dithering leader who f.cks everything up. By ignoring this the Sage etc advisers failed to correctly analyse the disease situation.
It seems that a successful Covid strategy needs a government which is respected or feared. Britain has neither.

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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Fri Dec 25, 2020 1:26 pm

T'was the night before Christmas, and in Ercolano near Napoli some scrotes decided to have a fight.

Image
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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by Hunting Dog » Fri Dec 25, 2020 8:06 pm

Oooh, my teeny area of England has just achieved the number one spot in cases per 100,000 for all of the UK for the week to 20th Dec.

I'm relatively sure it's not my fault, I don't have symptoms and haven't socialised in person since March...

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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:52 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:56 pm
sTeamTraen wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:49 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:25 pm


Three weeks on from that prediction and 36 804 cases were reported today.

I guess that counts as worse than predicted.
Mean cases in the last 7 days, per week since lpm wrote that post:
25 Nov-1 Dec: 14945
2-8 Dec: 15383
9-15 Dec: 19789 (probably closer to 21500 after correcting the Welsh reporting cockup)
16-22 Dec: 31863 (probably closer to 30000 after correcting the Welsh reporting cockup)
Doubling every two weeks. I hope tier 4 has an effect on the new variant. If not we’re looking at 60 000 per day by the end of the first week in January
53 135 positive cases reported today for the UK. Perhaps a bit of backlog included, but still heading toward 60 000 by 10 days or so.

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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Sat Jan 02, 2021 8:20 am

More than 2,500 break virus restrictions at illegal rave held in a warehouse at Lieuron near Rennes in Brittany which began on Thursday and is still going on.
A statement from local authorities said police had tried to "prevent this event but faced fierce hostility from many partygoers".

Late on Friday, France's Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin held a crisis meeting to discuss the event.

He said that all vehicle exits were blocked and more than 200 people had been given verbal warnings by police.
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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Jan 02, 2021 7:40 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:56 pm
sTeamTraen wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:49 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:25 pm


Three weeks on from that prediction and 36 804 cases were reported today.

I guess that counts as worse than predicted.
Mean cases in the last 7 days, per week since lpm wrote that post:
25 Nov-1 Dec: 14945
2-8 Dec: 15383
9-15 Dec: 19789 (probably closer to 21500 after correcting the Welsh reporting cockup)
16-22 Dec: 31863 (probably closer to 30000 after correcting the Welsh reporting cockup)
Doubling every two weeks. I hope tier 4 has an effect on the new variant. If not we’re looking at 60 000 per day by the end of the first week in January
This was prescient.
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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Sat Jan 02, 2021 7:52 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 8:20 am
More than 2,500 break virus restrictions at illegal rave held in a warehouse at Lieuron near Rennes in Brittany which began on Thursday and is still going on.
A statement from local authorities said police had tried to "prevent this event but faced fierce hostility from many partygoers".

Late on Friday, France's Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin held a crisis meeting to discuss the event.

He said that all vehicle exits were blocked and more than 200 people had been given verbal warnings by police.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... vid-curfew
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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by nezumi » Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:15 pm

Since all the predictions so far have been a bit underestimated, I'm going to chuck my 2p in. It's Jan 2nd and we're on 57000 cases and 415 deaths give or take. I'm going to predict now that, given how shite everyone and thing is, we'll be on 75000 new cases per day and 850 deaths per day on the 7th. I hope I'm wrong, I do.

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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Sun Jan 03, 2021 12:46 am

nezumi wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:15 pm
Since all the predictions so far have been a bit underestimated, I'm going to chuck my 2p in. It's Jan 2nd and we're on 57000 cases and 415 deaths give or take. I'm going to predict now that, given how shite everyone and thing is, we'll be on 75000 new cases per day and 850 deaths per day on the 7th. I hope I'm wrong, I do.
I think you may be about right on cases, but today's 415 is almost certainly one of the series of weekend/bank holiday outliers (on the low side) that have been happening recently. I would not be surprised if UK deaths are running at over 1,000 a day by the end of next week. It's baked-in from the recent case numbers. And that's not counting non-COVID deaths caused by hospitals being full. :cry:
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Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:08 pm

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