Re: CoViD-19 the unrelockdown
Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2020 8:04 pm
I've had scotch egg meal that I felt was substantial. It was in a bar in Dalston (a hipster area of east London) once. Their scotch eggs were quite expensive, 7 or 8 quid a pop, but it was so good, with an array of pickles and things, that I had a second one as well.shpalman wrote: ↑Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:05 pm... or indeed a scotch eggshpalman wrote: ↑Fri Nov 27, 2020 10:52 am... which would of course be illegal, but practically unenforceable in a country like England.
We Can't stop PEOPlE COmiNG hERe If tHey WaNT tO / CAN'T EXPEcT PeOpLE tO ProVE whErE THey LIVe said every tier 2 pub restaurant owner offering a plate of chips and side salad with every pint because that counts as a "substantial meal".
BUT ThIs is THE TIme OF YEaR When we HAVe The MoSt peOpLE yes that's why you have to stay closed now.
Yup it's baked in.shpalman wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 8:18 pmThe effect of the lockdown seemed to be to have cases halving every two weeks. In the second-wave growth phase the doubling time was maybe 8-9 days, it might go up a bit slower than that under the tier system.
I'd expect the rest of this week to keep decreasing and then next week to flatten and then the week of the 14-20 December to start going up again to reach numbers similar to what we have now (13000-15000 per day). It won't seem too bad to people who don't understand that two weeks of exponentially-increasing infections have already happened. The Christmas period itself might look ok just because those cases won't get registered until after it. Well above 20000 per day at the beginning of January.
ETA tl;dr yeah I agree with LPM in the previous post.
Or these f.ckers going to the pub in Yorkshpalman wrote: ↑Fri Nov 27, 2020 11:03 amPeterborough (in Cambridgeshire, tier 2) is flat at about 200 per 100,000 per week, while South Holland (in Lincolnshire, tier 3) is falling through 150 per 100,000 per week. However, South Holland is next to Boston which is at over 400 per 100,000 per week and you obviously don't want people from Boston all going to pubs in Spalding.
Three weeks on from that prediction and 36 804 cases were reported today.lpm wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:18 pmThere's a couple of weeks lag to the figures. The average at 15 Dec will be a better gauge.
But my little spreadsheet gave 13,000 a day by about now, falling to <10,000 mid Dec, rising back to 15,000 by Christmas, up to 30,000 early Jan.
Any civilised person would demand emergency fire break action if cases rose to 13,000. Anyone who unlockdowns because rates have fallen to that level belongs in prison for homicide.
Mean cases in the last 7 days, per week since lpm wrote that post:Woodchopper wrote: ↑Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:25 pmThree weeks on from that prediction and 36 804 cases were reported today.
I guess that counts as worse than predicted.
Doubling every two weeks. I hope tier 4 has an effect on the new variant. If not we’re looking at 60 000 per day by the end of the first week in JanuarysTeamTraen wrote: ↑Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:49 pmMean cases in the last 7 days, per week since lpm wrote that post:Woodchopper wrote: ↑Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:25 pmThree weeks on from that prediction and 36 804 cases were reported today.
I guess that counts as worse than predicted.
25 Nov-1 Dec: 14945
2-8 Dec: 15383
9-15 Dec: 19789 (probably closer to 21500 after correcting the Welsh reporting cockup)
16-22 Dec: 31863 (probably closer to 30000 after correcting the Welsh reporting cockup)
Part of me thinks "They can't possibly be planning to blame Brexit disruption on COVID, can they?", but then I look at what's going on now --- which, if it extends to the end of the month, will provide perfect cover --- and I think "f.ck me, yes, they can and they will".
It seems that a successful Covid strategy needs a government which is respected or feared. Britain has neither.lpm wrote: ↑Tue Dec 22, 2020 10:08 pmThe Covid deniers are right - lockdowns don't work in the UK. They don't work because the Covid deniers pressure the govt to start them late, be too loose and end too early. We are never going to reach a point when the burden can be handed to test and trace at low daily levels.
A policy recommendation should always take into account the existence of a major factor - in this case a sh.t government with a dithering leader who f.cks everything up. By ignoring this the Sage etc advisers failed to correctly analyse the disease situation.
53 135 positive cases reported today for the UK. Perhaps a bit of backlog included, but still heading toward 60 000 by 10 days or so.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:56 pmDoubling every two weeks. I hope tier 4 has an effect on the new variant. If not we’re looking at 60 000 per day by the end of the first week in JanuarysTeamTraen wrote: ↑Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:49 pmMean cases in the last 7 days, per week since lpm wrote that post:Woodchopper wrote: ↑Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:25 pm
Three weeks on from that prediction and 36 804 cases were reported today.
I guess that counts as worse than predicted.
25 Nov-1 Dec: 14945
2-8 Dec: 15383
9-15 Dec: 19789 (probably closer to 21500 after correcting the Welsh reporting cockup)
16-22 Dec: 31863 (probably closer to 30000 after correcting the Welsh reporting cockup)
A statement from local authorities said police had tried to "prevent this event but faced fierce hostility from many partygoers".
Late on Friday, France's Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin held a crisis meeting to discuss the event.
He said that all vehicle exits were blocked and more than 200 people had been given verbal warnings by police.
This was prescient.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:56 pmDoubling every two weeks. I hope tier 4 has an effect on the new variant. If not we’re looking at 60 000 per day by the end of the first week in JanuarysTeamTraen wrote: ↑Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:49 pmMean cases in the last 7 days, per week since lpm wrote that post:Woodchopper wrote: ↑Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:25 pm
Three weeks on from that prediction and 36 804 cases were reported today.
I guess that counts as worse than predicted.
25 Nov-1 Dec: 14945
2-8 Dec: 15383
9-15 Dec: 19789 (probably closer to 21500 after correcting the Welsh reporting cockup)
16-22 Dec: 31863 (probably closer to 30000 after correcting the Welsh reporting cockup)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... vid-curfewshpalman wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 8:20 amMore than 2,500 break virus restrictions at illegal rave held in a warehouse at Lieuron near Rennes in Brittany which began on Thursday and is still going on.
A statement from local authorities said police had tried to "prevent this event but faced fierce hostility from many partygoers".
Late on Friday, France's Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin held a crisis meeting to discuss the event.
He said that all vehicle exits were blocked and more than 200 people had been given verbal warnings by police.
I think you may be about right on cases, but today's 415 is almost certainly one of the series of weekend/bank holiday outliers (on the low side) that have been happening recently. I would not be surprised if UK deaths are running at over 1,000 a day by the end of next week. It's baked-in from the recent case numbers. And that's not counting non-COVID deaths caused by hospitals being full.nezumi wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:15 pmSince all the predictions so far have been a bit underestimated, I'm going to chuck my 2p in. It's Jan 2nd and we're on 57000 cases and 415 deaths give or take. I'm going to predict now that, given how shite everyone and thing is, we'll be on 75000 new cases per day and 850 deaths per day on the 7th. I hope I'm wrong, I do.