Vaccine rollout in the UK

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lpm
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Wed Mar 31, 2021 3:39 pm

First Doses:

England & Wales: Groups 1-9 complete. Unofficially started on 40-49, plus bringing 2nds forward

Scotland: a bit behind everywhere else, still quite a few Group 9 (50-54) to do

Northern Ireland: officially invited the 45-49 group

Second Doses:

UK now first place in Europe, with 4.1 million 2nd doses complete. Compares to 3.1m Italy, 2.7m France. On a per capita basis, the UK is still behind Denmark and Switzerland, but not for long.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by sTeamTraen » Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:29 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Sun Mar 28, 2021 9:37 pm
I often wondered if I might have had Covid already and been asymptomatic, given my reaction to the vaccine I dont think so! Felt very crap last night, headaches, muscle ache, felt like skin was on fire. Feeling ok now some 36 hours later, but that was rough.

And thats with the body fighting a 'card board cut out' that isn't multiplying and fighting back. Very glad to have had the vaccine, the real thing would have likely floored me.
I had the idea (knowing nothing about immunology) that maybe one's reaction to the vaccine could be an indicator how one would react to the virus. I asked on Twitter and got every possible answer, although the expertise of most of the people involved was clearly not authoritative.
Something something hammer something something nail

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Sat Apr 03, 2021 10:00 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:29 pm
I asked on Twitter and got every possible answer, although the expertise of most of the people involved was clearly not authoritative.
That is a Universal Truth.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by headshot » Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:32 pm

The UK's rollout with slow further according to SAGE: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... sage-warns
The pace of England’s vaccination programme could be squeezed to 2.7m a week until the end of July, meaning there would be little surplus for first doses until tens of millions of second doses had been administered.
Well...sheeeit.


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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by badger » Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:26 am

Herd Immunity Day on Monday everyone! Hurray!!

Linky

Orig Telegraph article (paywalled)

Including choice cuts:
The model also suggests that, in the coming months, the threshold level needed for herd immunity will drop dramatically, with Britain needing just 40 per cent protection by the middle of the summer to be safe.
The Telegraph understands that the Government is unhappy with the pessimistic tone set by models produced by SPI-M, released earlier this week, and has asked other groups to critique the work. The SPI-M summary, presented to Sage, suggested the roadmap out of lockdown was "highly likely" to lead to increased hospital cases and deaths this summer.
The models were criticised for using out of date and flawed assumptions about levels of population immunity and effectiveness of the vaccine as well as failing to factor in reductions in transmission due to vaccination and seasonality.

Prof Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at Oxford University, said: "In my 20-plus years as a doctor, I've never come across a summer surge in a respiratory infection in the UK. The modelling now keeps changing dramatically, so it's hard to see how it helps us. What we really want to do is look at the real-world data and make decisions from there.

"One of the problems is nobody is going back and checking whether the modelling matched up with the reality. We know that modelling in schools has not helped us because it was incorrect. So we need to have a reality check."
And this kicker:
The Government also ignored dire predictions that reopening schools would trigger a spike of new infections, which did not come to pass.
Phew. That's a relief. Might not bother getting my second jab.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by wilsontown » Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:25 pm

I've only been able to read the Independent article linked, but some of this doesn't make sense to me.
The model also suggests that, in the coming months, the threshold level needed for herd immunity will drop dramatically, with Britain needing just 40 per cent protection by the middle of the summer to be safe.
This implies R of around 1.7 - if we consider that R0 is probably about 3, what is the mechanism for this reduction? Something to do with seasonality? And this really something the model "suggests", or is it part of the underlying assumptions?
"In my 20-plus years as a doctor, I've never come across a summer surge in a respiratory infection in the UK
But there have definitely been summer covid-19 surges in various countries around the world, so why should it be impossible here?
One of the problems is nobody is going back and checking whether the modelling matched up with the reality
I really hope that isn't the case, but maybe someone who knows more about this can comment?
"All models are wrong but some are useful" - George Box

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:52 pm

I'm reading it at the Eeney Stannit:
Dynamic modelling suggests that the number of people who are protected against Covid-19, either because they are naturally immune or have received a vaccine, will hit 73.4% on April 12.
Out of which
around 54% had antibodies by March 14
according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics last week, based on antibody testing.

plus
a further 7.1 million people have received a first jab, while nearly 100,000 more people have tested positive for Covid-19.

In addition to this around 10% of the population is naturally immune, either through exposure to other coronaviruses or because they have T-cells, which would not be picked up in antibody testing.
In summary:
Professor Karl Friston, from UCL, said: “The herd immunity estimates surprised me. However, they are unremarkable when one considers that over 50% of adults have been vaccinated, around 42% of people have now been exposed to the virus and about 10% have pre-existing immunity.
So I don't know quite know where they get
The university also predicted that the threshold level needed for herd immunity will drop dramatically in the next couple of months with the UK needing just 40% protection by the middle of the summer to be safe.
from either, it seems to be dropped in without context.

But we do remember that last year the UK came out of lockdown* in June or July but cases didn't really start going up again until mid September - James Annan's model has this as a variation of R. I don't really remember what was going on in the UK, apart from Eat Out To Help Out. But I also remember that summer young-people touristy seaside shagging mixing caused an increase in the base level of cases here (including imports from Croatia) but also the second wave didn't kick off until mid-September.

* - it wasn't a complete free-for-all though was it?
Last edited by shpalman on Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
molto tricky

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by bob sterman » Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:00 pm

badger wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:26 am
The models were criticised for using out of date and flawed assumptions about levels of population immunity and effectiveness of the vaccine as well as failing to factor in reductions in transmission due to vaccination and seasonality.

Prof Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at Oxford University, said: "In my 20-plus years as a doctor, I've never come across a summer surge in a respiratory infection in the UK. The modelling now keeps changing dramatically, so it's hard to see how it helps us. What we really want to do is look at the real-world data and make decisions from there.

"One of the problems is nobody is going back and checking whether the modelling matched up with the reality. We know that modelling in schools has not helped us because it was incorrect. So we need to have a reality check."
Well - we know for sure that Heneghan's "modelling" didn't match up to reality.

August 30th, 2020 Heneghan made the following claims on BBC Radio 5...
- It's never been safer for students come back to universities.
- It's not right now a big issue.
- Right now, the disease is at a very low level.
- Anxiety [about going back to work in universities] is not well placed.
- Right now [COVID-19] is a low impact, a weak disease, that is not causing the same problems as it caused in March & April.
Followed, later in September by his "No evidence right now of a second wave" claim...

https://news.sky.com/video/square-video ... 4-12076907

Carl's "no evidence of a second wave claim" came after new case numbers had risen from 1000 per day in August, to about 5000-6000 per day around 20th September.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:35 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:52 pm
But we do remember that last year the UK came out of lockdown* in June or July but cases didn't really start going up again until mid September - James Annan's model has this as a variation of R. I don't really remember what was going on in the UK, apart from Eat Out To Help Out. But I also remember that summer young-people touristy seaside shagging mixing caused an increase in the base level of cases here (including imports from Croatia) but also the second wave didn't kick off until mid-September.

* - it wasn't a complete free-for-all though was it?
The UK salami unlockdown happened across July and August - and cases did start going up, well before mid September.

In July cases increased a bit, from the low of around 500 per day to about 700. Across August, cases doubled from about 700 to about 1,400. The September disaster was easily foretold by all of us - schools went back and it became doubling every 2 weeks instead of 4 weeks, taking it racing to 6,300 by 30 Sept.

That shouldn't happen again, given the vaccine immunity. The English strain is about R=4 unhindered? If the vaccine takes it to R=1.5 then basic social distancing and modest restrictions should keep it below 1.

I don't see that we're far off herd immunity. Defintely there by end of July. The trouble is that there will still be millions of adults unvaccinated (plus < 2 weeks since 1st dose) at the 21 June date. Even before the EU nicked all our vaccine supply, the UK unlock timing didn't quite work. It's a surge within the 17 May to 21 June period that's the threat - if the 21 June starting position is too high, the July figures will be awful.

If we were patient enough to get cases < 500, or even < 1,000, there'd be plenty of headroom to respond to any surges. It'd be pretty grim to prevent the 99% of deaths currently in the >50 year old cohorts, only to see a jump in deaths for 18-50 year olds.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by bob sterman » Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:43 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:35 pm
The September disaster was easily foretold by all of us - schools went back and it became doubling every 2 weeks instead of 4 weeks...
Except Comedy Carl!!!

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:52 pm

Yes, quite.

But obviously any tw.t who's spent every day of the last 15 months saying "it's not a problem, it's going to all stop any day now, nobody's going to die of it any more" is soon going to be right for the first time ever.

Let's not fall into the trap of automatically contradicting their b.llsh.t - otherwise in a couple of months we'll be handing them a "told you so" moment.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by mediocrity511 » Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:59 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:52 pm
I'm reading it at the Eeney Stannit:
Dynamic modelling suggests that the number of people who are protected against Covid-19, either because they are naturally immune or have received a vaccine, will hit 73.4% on April 12.
Out of which
around 54% had antibodies by March 14
according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics last week, based on antibody testing.

plus
a further 7.1 million people have received a first jab, while nearly 100,000 more people have tested positive for Covid-19.

In addition to this around 10% of the population is naturally immune, either through exposure to other coronaviruses or because they have T-cells, which would not be picked up in antibody testing.
In summary:
Professor Karl Friston, from UCL, said: “The herd immunity estimates surprised me. However, they are unremarkable when one considers that over 50% of adults have been vaccinated, around 42% of people have now been exposed to the virus and about 10% have pre-existing immunity.
So I don't know quite know where they get
The university also predicted that the threshold level needed for herd immunity will drop dramatically in the next couple of months with the UK needing just 40% protection by the middle of the summer to be safe.
from either, it seems to be dropped in without context.

But we do remember that last year the UK came out of lockdown* in June or July but cases didn't really start going up again until mid September - James Annan's model has this as a variation of R. I don't really remember what was going on in the UK, apart from Eat Out To Help Out. But I also remember that summer young-people touristy seaside shagging mixing caused an increase in the base level of cases here (including imports from Croatia) but also the second wave didn't kick off until mid-September.

* - it wasn't a complete free-for-all though was it?
Are they considering people who have been vaccinated, those who have covid and those with natural immunity as 3 distinct groups? Because there is going to be large overlap, particularly when you think that healthcare workers and care home residents are both most likely to catch covid and both top priority for vaccination.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by bob sterman » Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:59 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:52 pm
Yes, quite.

But obviously any tw.t who's spent every day of the last 15 months saying "it's not a problem, it's going to all stop any day now, nobody's going to die of it any more" is soon going to be right for the first time ever.

Let's not fall into the trap of automatically contradicting their b.llsh.t - otherwise in a couple of months we'll be handing them a "told you so" moment.
Yes - good point. Stopped clock and all that. Carl not you!!!

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:25 pm

mediocrity511 wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:59 pm
shpalman wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:52 pm
I'm reading it at the Eeney Stannit:
Dynamic modelling suggests that the number of people who are protected against Covid-19, either because they are naturally immune or have received a vaccine, will hit 73.4% on April 12.
Out of which
around 54% had antibodies by March 14
according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics last week, based on antibody testing.

plus
a further 7.1 million people have received a first jab, while nearly 100,000 more people have tested positive for Covid-19.

In addition to this around 10% of the population is naturally immune, either through exposure to other coronaviruses or because they have T-cells, which would not be picked up in antibody testing.
In summary:
Professor Karl Friston, from UCL, said: “The herd immunity estimates surprised me. However, they are unremarkable when one considers that over 50% of adults have been vaccinated, around 42% of people have now been exposed to the virus and about 10% have pre-existing immunity.
So I don't know quite know where they get
The university also predicted that the threshold level needed for herd immunity will drop dramatically in the next couple of months with the UK needing just 40% protection by the middle of the summer to be safe.
from either, it seems to be dropped in without context.

But we do remember that last year the UK came out of lockdown* in June or July but cases didn't really start going up again until mid September - James Annan's model has this as a variation of R. I don't really remember what was going on in the UK, apart from Eat Out To Help Out. But I also remember that summer young-people touristy seaside shagging mixing caused an increase in the base level of cases here (including imports from Croatia) but also the second wave didn't kick off until mid-September.

* - it wasn't a complete free-for-all though was it?
Are they considering people who have been vaccinated, those who have covid and those with natural immunity as 3 distinct groups? Because there is going to be large overlap, particularly when you think that healthcare workers and care home residents are both most likely to catch covid and both top priority for vaccination.
Well that's a good point but it might be the reason why 50%+42%+10% comes to 73% not 102%.
molto tricky

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by individualmember » Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:18 pm

badger wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:26 am
Herd Immunity Day on Monday everyone! Hurray!!

Linky

...
The Government also ignored dire predictions that reopening schools would trigger a spike of new infections, which did not come to pass.
Phew. That's a relief. Might not bother getting my second jab.
N=1 an’ all that but the school my wife works in had it’s first diagnosis of a member of staff getting Covid on 29th March. Just in time for the Easter holiday, so the disruption won’t show immediately.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:24 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:35 pm
shpalman wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:52 pm
But we do remember that last year the UK came out of lockdown* in June or July but cases didn't really start going up again until mid September - James Annan's model has this as a variation of R. I don't really remember what was going on in the UK, apart from Eat Out To Help Out. But I also remember that summer young-people touristy seaside shagging mixing caused an increase in the base level of cases here (including imports from Croatia) but also the second wave didn't kick off until mid-September.

* - it wasn't a complete free-for-all though was it?
The UK salami unlockdown happened across July and August - and cases did start going up, well before mid September.

In July cases increased a bit, from the low of around 500 per day to about 700. Across August, cases doubled from about 700 to about 1,400. The September disaster was easily foretold by all of us - schools went back and it became doubling every 2 weeks instead of 4 weeks, taking it racing to 6,300 by 30 Sept.

That shouldn't happen again, given the vaccine immunity. The English strain is about R=4 unhindered? If the vaccine takes it to R=1.5 then basic social distancing and modest restrictions should keep it below 1.

I don't see that we're far off herd immunity. Defintely there by end of July. The trouble is that there will still be millions of adults unvaccinated (plus < 2 weeks since 1st dose) at the 21 June date. Even before the EU nicked all our vaccine supply, the UK unlock timing didn't quite work. It's a surge within the 17 May to 21 June period that's the threat - if the 21 June starting position is too high, the July figures will be awful.

If we were patient enough to get cases < 500, or even < 1,000, there'd be plenty of headroom to respond to any surges. It'd be pretty grim to prevent the 99% of deaths currently in the >50 year old cohorts, only to see a jump in deaths for 18-50 year olds.
Normally, cases < 1,000 per day would mean about 20 deaths per day, using the basic 2% CFR we've seen so far.

Wot I reckon is that the CFR in the 20-49 age group is 0.1% (and I really did do all the tedious messing about with JSON files which I said I wouldn't do in the other thread, but with a 14 day delay and a 0.1% CFR the cases and deaths from the third wave match quite well, assuming I can average the rolling case and death rates across age groups).

So to get 20 deaths per day assuming only the 20-49 age group is getting substantially infected, would mean 20,000 cases per day (two weeks earlier).

But deaths peaked at over 1200 per day (considering a 7-day average) and to get that kind of rate from only the 20-49 age group would mean a million cases per day. If case rates ever got that high, it would be a hellish few weeks (there are 22 million people in that age group) but you really would get to herd immunity faster than you could vaccinate.

So what has to happen in the UK is for people to not let cases go up while saying "it's fine there aren't that many deaths".
molto tricky

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by badger » Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:06 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:24 pm
lpm wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:35 pm
shpalman wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:52 pm
But we do remember that last year the UK came out of lockdown* in June or July but cases didn't really start going up again until mid September - James Annan's model has this as a variation of R. I don't really remember what was going on in the UK, apart from Eat Out To Help Out. But I also remember that summer young-people touristy seaside shagging mixing caused an increase in the base level of cases here (including imports from Croatia) but also the second wave didn't kick off until mid-September.

* - it wasn't a complete free-for-all though was it?
The UK salami unlockdown happened across July and August - and cases did start going up, well before mid September.

In July cases increased a bit, from the low of around 500 per day to about 700. Across August, cases doubled from about 700 to about 1,400. The September disaster was easily foretold by all of us - schools went back and it became doubling every 2 weeks instead of 4 weeks, taking it racing to 6,300 by 30 Sept.

That shouldn't happen again, given the vaccine immunity. The English strain is about R=4 unhindered? If the vaccine takes it to R=1.5 then basic social distancing and modest restrictions should keep it below 1.

I don't see that we're far off herd immunity. Defintely there by end of July. The trouble is that there will still be millions of adults unvaccinated (plus < 2 weeks since 1st dose) at the 21 June date. Even before the EU nicked all our vaccine supply, the UK unlock timing didn't quite work. It's a surge within the 17 May to 21 June period that's the threat - if the 21 June starting position is too high, the July figures will be awful.

If we were patient enough to get cases < 500, or even < 1,000, there'd be plenty of headroom to respond to any surges. It'd be pretty grim to prevent the 99% of deaths currently in the >50 year old cohorts, only to see a jump in deaths for 18-50 year olds.
Normally, cases < 1,000 per day would mean about 20 deaths per day, using the basic 2% CFR we've seen so far.

Wot I reckon is that the CFR in the 20-49 age group is 0.1% (and I really did do all the tedious messing about with JSON files which I said I wouldn't do in the other thread, but with a 14 day delay and a 0.1% CFR the cases and deaths from the third wave match quite well, assuming I can average the rolling case and death rates across age groups).

So to get 20 deaths per day assuming only the 20-49 age group is getting substantially infected, would mean 20,000 cases per day (two weeks earlier).

But deaths peaked at over 1200 per day (considering a 7-day average) and to get that kind of rate from only the 20-49 age group would mean a million cases per day. If case rates ever got that high, it would be a hellish few weeks (there are 22 million people in that age group) but you really would get to herd immunity faster than you could vaccinate.

So what has to happen in the UK is for people to not let cases go up while saying "it's fine there aren't that many deaths".
Absolutely this. But instead we have a Govt unwilling to make this case (or any case, really) and be beaten up by The Torygraph bleating that "everything's fine, we can go back to normal now, SAGE are just a bunch of scaredy cats, here look this published paper* says so". Nothing about what herd immunity actually means in terms of cases, it's just equated with 'end of covid'.

*not actually been able to find the paper.

Comedy Carl's comment about the models needing to "match reality" picked up by WilsonTown above, was in reference to schools, and in the article also was a reference to previous models not taking into account the latest figures from the vaccination programme (eg previous forecasts had it that there would be a much high percentage of hospitalisations than has turned out to be the case so far, which seems fair enough). Also:
The work by UCL differs from other models because it reacts quickly to real-time deaths, infections, vaccinations, vaccine effectiveness data, hospital admissions and Google mobility trends, which inform transmission trends and the 'R' rate, which it currently estimates to be 1.12.

Despite the 'R' being above one, it predicts that deaths will continue to fall to low levels by May 24 and stay there, with no summer spike forecast.

Modellers say their "most likely" scenarios contrast with the SPI-M projections of "reasonable worst-case scenarios" and are more optimistic about the pandemic.

"Generally, the most likely predictions of mitigated responses, i.e. what is likely to happen, are more optimistic than worst-case projections of unmitigated responses – i.e. what could happen," the researchers said. The team also published the code of their model so that it can be checked

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:58 pm

The government's modelling has been sh.t though generally hasn't it?
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:02 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Mar 31, 2021 3:39 pm
First Doses:

England & Wales: Groups 1-9 complete. Unofficially started on 40-49, plus bringing 2nds forward

Scotland: a bit behind everywhere else, still quite a few Group 9 (50-54) to do

Northern Ireland: officially invited the 45-49 group

Second Doses:

UK now first place in Europe, with 4.1 million 2nd doses complete. Compares to 3.1m Italy, 2.7m France. On a per capita basis, the UK is still behind Denmark and Switzerland, but not for long.
When would the UK have got to the general under-30 age group anyway?
molto tricky

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:05 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:58 pm
The government's modelling has been sh.t though generally hasn't it?
Yup. We are going to be in some kind of lockdown for the forseeable future.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:22 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:02 pm
lpm wrote:
Wed Mar 31, 2021 3:39 pm
First Doses:

England & Wales: Groups 1-9 complete. Unofficially started on 40-49, plus bringing 2nds forward

Scotland: a bit behind everywhere else, still quite a few Group 9 (50-54) to do

Northern Ireland: officially invited the 45-49 group

Second Doses:

UK now first place in Europe, with 4.1 million 2nd doses complete. Compares to 3.1m Italy, 2.7m France. On a per capita basis, the UK is still behind Denmark and Switzerland, but not for long.
When would the UK have got to the general under-30 age group anyway?
It had been on track for early June for <30.

Now looks like both April and May will be nearly all 2nd doses, meaning June for 40-49 and 30-39, then early July for <30.

Northern Ireland has moved on from 45-49 and has officially invited 40-44. Scotland still has a bit of 50-54 to go. Not sure when the government will proclaim victory for the "groups 1-9 by 15 April" target.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by badger » Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:45 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:58 pm
The government's modelling has been sh.t though generally hasn't it?
Indeed it has. From a number of different contributors too.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by wilsontown » Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:23 pm

Well, see my signature...

But can we point to any models that have been wrong but also useful during the pandemic? The Imperial work arguably forced the government to face the reality that some level of lockdown was necessary, despite the "thousands of lines of undocumented c" involved (shpalman, I think).

Any others?
"All models are wrong but some are useful" - George Box

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:45 pm

The Imperial work was just to put a scale on the y-axis of the government's model.
molto tricky

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