Vaccine rollout in the UK

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Herainestold
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Sun Aug 08, 2021 7:27 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sun Aug 08, 2021 3:55 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 9:40 pm
lpm wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 9:21 pm
The UK program ended a month ago.

It's like saying sprinters are further down the track than Usain Bolt, a minute after Bolt crossed the line.
Huh? The UK hadn't even offered complete doses to all adults a month ago.

If the race is vaccinating people over 18, the UK gave up before the finish line.
And? You're saying that as though it would be surprising.

Anecdata, but my adult kids have their second doses booked, but not yet done.
I still think the UK is doing well on vaccinations, its other public health measures that are lacking. What is the dose interval now, in practise for young adults? I think there is some merit in waiting out the 8 weeks for Pfizer in young people.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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lpm
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Sun Aug 08, 2021 9:09 pm

UK dose interval is 8 weeks. Seconds booked at the same time as the first so will be fairly reliable.
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Herainestold
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Sun Aug 08, 2021 9:31 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Aug 08, 2021 9:09 pm
UK dose interval is 8 weeks. Seconds booked at the same time as the first so will be fairly reliable.
Thanks.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Lew Dolby » Mon Aug 09, 2021 8:31 am

lpm wrote:
Sun Aug 08, 2021 9:09 pm
UK dose interval is 8 weeks. Seconds booked at the same time as the first so will be fairly reliable.
Not necesarily. When I went online to book mine last winter, the nearest centre (Telford, Shropshire, 30 miles away) wouldn't book the second jab at the same time. T'was why I booked to go to a centre 60 miles away 'cos they booked both at once.

T'was early on so they're prob better organised since.
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Woodchopper
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:37 am

Thread on vaccine uptake in the UK: https://twitter.com/kit_yates_maths/sta ... 42210?s=21

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Aug 21, 2021 4:16 pm

My sister in London has just managed to get her second Pfizer dose. She's 28.

So I guess in a month or so all 18+ people should have had a chance to get fully vaccinated. At that point, the government will be able to look at case numbers and see if it's sensible to start cautiously reducing certain restrictions.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Aug 21, 2021 4:17 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Aug 21, 2021 4:16 pm
My sister in London has just managed to get her second Pfizer dose. She's 28.

So I guess in a month or so all 18+ people should have had a chance to get fully vaccinated. At that point, the government will be able to look at case numbers and see if it's sensible to start cautiously reducing certain restrictions.
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lpm
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:02 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Aug 21, 2021 4:16 pm
My sister in London has just managed to get her second Pfizer dose. She's 28.

So I guess in a month or so all 18+ people should have had a chance to get fully vaccinated. At that point, the government will be able to look at case numbers and see if it's sensible to start cautiously reducing certain restrictions.
She's a bit slow, isn't she?

Bookings were opened to anyone 18 and over on 25 June. Which is 8 weeks and day ago. Second doses are scheduled for 8 weeks and mostly second appointments were made the same time as first.

OK, so the eager 18 years on 25 June would have been making appointments for a week or two's time, so we're still about two weeks away from double-dosed for all eager adults. Anyone after this time are the can't-be-arseds and get-round-to-it-laters.
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lpm
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:21 pm

My mistake, was 18 June when it was opened to all adults, so 9 weeks ago now.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:38 pm

What, you're complaining that BOAF's sister took a whole week to get around to her first jab?
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:59 pm

This government is sh.t. The vaccine rollout is manifestly not.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Lew Dolby » Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:33 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:59 pm
This government is sh.t. The vaccine rollout is manifestly not.
poss 'cos it's the one thing the public sector was allowed to do. /stating the bl..dy obvious/
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lpm
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:01 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:38 pm
What, you're complaining that BOAF's sister took a whole week to get around to her first jab?
Miss BOAF is 28, so would have been eligible many weeks earlier. The good thing about the Uk's strict rollout by age is you can immediately tell if someone is shamefully late.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:05 pm

lpm wrote:
Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:01 pm
shpalman wrote:
Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:38 pm
What, you're complaining that BOAF's sister took a whole week to get around to her first jab?
Miss BOAF is 28, so would have been eligible many weeks earlier. The good thing about the Uk's strict rollout by age is you can immediately tell if someone is shamefully late.
Is that when booking opens or when appointments start being available?
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:47 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:05 pm
lpm wrote:
Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:01 pm
shpalman wrote:
Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:38 pm
What, you're complaining that BOAF's sister took a whole week to get around to her first jab?
Miss BOAF is 28, so would have been eligible many weeks earlier. The good thing about the Uk's strict rollout by age is you can immediately tell if someone is shamefully late.
Is that when booking opens or when appointments start being available?
She got the first appointment she could get at a surgery near where she lives that didn't clash with work. London GP surgeries haven't always had huge numbers of appointments available immediately, unsurprisingly.

The second dose was booked at the time of the first jab, for 12 weeks later. After the change in policy to 8 weeks she called up and advanced the appointment.

She definitely hasn't been dithering. I don't think lpm has much idea about the practicalities of the rollout to be honest.
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bob sterman
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by bob sterman » Sun Aug 22, 2021 6:30 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:47 pm
She got the first appointment she could get at a surgery near where she lives that didn't clash with work. London GP surgeries haven't always had huge numbers of appointments available immediately, unsurprisingly.
I thought bookings based on age-based criteria are now generally done through the national booking system and take place at mass vaccination centres - not through GP surgeries / GP run vaccination hubs.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Sun Aug 22, 2021 9:12 am

Yes, GPs were intended to be for personalised care not mass production. Doing housebound patients for example.

"Not clash with work" intrigues me. Not sure if it's a form of can't-be-arsed or an example of scum capitalist employers. Unless she works in something with even higher priority than ending a pandemic, such as preventing alien invasion or dealing with a black hole accidentally created by CERN.
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bob sterman
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by bob sterman » Sun Aug 22, 2021 9:37 am

lpm wrote:
Sun Aug 22, 2021 9:12 am
Yes, GPs were intended to be for personalised care not mass production. Doing housebound patients for example.
GPs did a lot more than this. GP vaccination hubs also did Clinically Extremely Vulnerable (with Group 4), at risk due to health conditions (Group 6) and unpaid carers who don't get Carers' Allowance.

If you actually received Carers Allowance you could book through the national system and go to a mass vaccination centre.

In our area there was competition between the national system and the GPs to vaccinate carers - if you got Carers Allowance you could use either route (with the GPs missing out on their payment if you went through the national system).

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Aug 22, 2021 10:00 am

"Surgery" is just my slip-up - feel free to replace with "vaccination centre".

How soon after the opening of a particular age group should everyone have had their first jab, before it's their moral failure? Obviously not everyone can do it in the first week, because there aren't enough slots.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Aug 22, 2021 10:07 am

lpm wrote:
Sun Aug 22, 2021 9:12 am
Yes, GPs were intended to be for personalised care not mass production. Doing housebound patients for example.

"Not clash with work" intrigues me. Not sure if it's a form of can't-be-arsed or an example of scum capitalist employers. Unless she works in something with even higher priority than ending a pandemic, such as preventing alien invasion or dealing with a black hole accidentally created by CERN.
Well it's a client-facing (over phone/zoom) job at a charity providing financial support for vulnerable people. So not ending the pandemic, but obviously not something you can easily just cancel a bunch of appointments at short notice.

Feel free to judge away, but I'm not sure I'd call putting vulnerable clients ahead of one's own vaccination (when you live alone and work from home) "can't be arsed". Then again, I'm not a c.nt.
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bob sterman
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by bob sterman » Sun Aug 22, 2021 10:20 am

I initially thought lpm's "a bit slow comment" was ironic.

Apparently not.

Seems like sister is perhaps within a week or so of the earliest date at which a 28 year old could reasonably be expected to have had their second dose.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Aug 22, 2021 10:42 am

Yeah, she was pretty keen to get it, and is generally quite organised and competent. I'd expect her to have been one of the earlier 25-29s to get it, at least in central London. Rollout in the sticks may have been faster (ironically where it's less necessary).

lpm has recently pivoted from criticising the government for being to slow, to cheerleading for their recent choice of hasty unlockdown policy. The change seemed to come around the time she got vaccinated - not sure if it's due to illuminati lizard mind-control using the graphene oxide nanoparticles, or just an "I'm all right jack so f.ck everybody else" failure of empathy and wilful ignorance about other people's circumstances.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Sun Aug 22, 2021 12:34 pm

The reasons why vaccination of 18-30 are so slow are important. It meant unused capacity at centres and kept fuelling the heat map in the lower age groups.

Obviously there's a huge range from "delaying a couple of weeks for added convenience" to "won't ever bother", even ignoring the active anti vax idiots. But as the worriers keep pointing out, young people are going to get immunity soon enough, either from a vaccine or the hard way from an infection.

Other countries are going through this right now, so it's interesting to hear the stories behind why rollout fizzles in the younger age groups.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Sun Aug 22, 2021 12:43 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Aug 22, 2021 10:42 am
lpm has recently pivoted from criticising the government for being to slow, to cheerleading for their recent choice of hasty unlockdown policy. The change seemed to come around the time she got vaccinated - not sure if it's due to illuminati lizard mind-control using the graphene oxide nanoparticles, or just an "I'm all right jack so f.ck everybody else" failure of empathy and wilful ignorance about other people's circumstances.
The more observant might have noticed it as being more from the time all adults were invited plus a couple of weeks plus a two week gap for immunity to build.

Which, not coincidentally, is a similar date to the government's unlockdown date.

The fact that others failed to pivot at this date is depressing - it reveals a fundamental desire for govt control, restrictions on freedom and uninterest in basic human rights. It also slows a slowness to adapt to a changed world - the same slowness that cost us in March 2020.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Aug 22, 2021 1:00 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Aug 22, 2021 12:43 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Aug 22, 2021 10:42 am
lpm has recently pivoted from criticising the government for being to slow, to cheerleading for their recent choice of hasty unlockdown policy. The change seemed to come around the time she got vaccinated - not sure if it's due to illuminati lizard mind-control using the graphene oxide nanoparticles, or just an "I'm all right jack so f.ck everybody else" failure of empathy and wilful ignorance about other people's circumstances.
The more observant might have noticed it as being more from the time all adults were invited plus a couple of weeks plus a two week gap for immunity to build.
There's a fundamental problem with your maths and/or immunology there - being invited doesn't automatically confer immunity.

You need to wait until people have not only been invited, but been able to have their first injection, wait the recommended period, have their second injection, and then wait the two week gap for immunity.

And obviously, not everybody can actually be vaccinated during the first week, after the invitations went out, due to limited slots and other commitments. This is especially important in densely populated areas, where as far as I can tell slots (at least the convenient ones) got booked up very quickly.

So you need to take a stab at what percent of people you think will have been adequately quick off the mark to be worth considering - perhaps the first 50%? 75%? - and figure out in what timeframe they could all reasonably be expected to have had their first appointments. That's probably about two weeks from the invitation? Then add either 8 or 12 weeks for the second appointment, depending on whether you're happy for people to stick with the original appointment they were given or expect them to call up to reschedule. Maybe add a week or two fudge factor to the second date, because people with unpredictable work schedules can't necessarily in practice get time off months in advance.

But even assuming they could all get slots in the first week that's an absolute minimum of 11 weeks from the invitation day, which was 18th of June for all adults. Eleven weeks after that makes 11th of September. We're not there yet.
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