Vaccine rollout in the UK

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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:00 pm

badger wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:26 am
Herd Immunity Day on Monday everyone! Hurray!!...
It's now in the Guardian with some balancing comments.
molto tricky

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by badger » Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:22 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:00 pm
badger wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:26 am
Herd Immunity Day on Monday everyone! Hurray!!...
It's now in the Guardian with some balancing comments.
That is.... a good article, right? It even links to the published work. If only it would be read by those who swallowed the Telegraph piece, but I think they're too busy demanding the immediate lifting of all restrictions.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by badger » Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:23 pm

wilsontown wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:23 pm
Well, see my signature...

But can we point to any models that have been wrong but also useful during the pandemic? The Imperial work arguably forced the government to face the reality that some level of lockdown was necessary, despite the "thousands of lines of undocumented c" involved (shpalman, I think).

Any others?
Didn't they have to redo their graphs the day after one of the Whitty/Valance press conferences?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:25 pm

There will be no herd immunity against a virus that is constantly mutating. Vaccines will keep the death toll in moderation, but the pandemic will continue.
Double dose. Double mask. Double distance

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Millennie Al » Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:34 am

badger wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:22 pm
shpalman wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:00 pm
It's now in the Guardian with some balancing comments.
That is.... a good article, right? It even links to the published work. If only it would be read by those who swallowed the Telegraph piece, but I think they're too busy demanding the immediate lifting of all restrictions.
The analogy with weather forecasting is nice, but misses the opportunity to point out that if the forecast is for rain, that does not inducce the clouds to decide to go elsewhere, while telling people your prediction for herd immunity does, making it much harder to make a true prediction (it needs to be a fixed point).
Covid-19 - Don't catch it: don't spread it.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:46 pm

molto tricky

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Gfamily » Sat Apr 10, 2021 6:10 pm

It is a problem that a headache is both
- common after the vaccination
- one of the symptoms of CSVT

So people who know this are likely to be very worried - inevitably, someone will turn up at A&E, be turned away, and subsequently die; because you're looking at something like 1 in 100,000 with a headache ending up with a serious problem, and picking that 1 from the remaining 99,999 isn't going to happen reliably enough.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Squeak » Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:01 am

As someone who has severe headaches about half the days in a month, I'm quietly glad that I'm unlikely to get the AZ vaccine, when I finally get jabbed, for this very reason. How the hell am I supposed to distinguish a clot from a Tuesday before I start to slur my words?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by tom p » Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:29 am

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:25 pm
There will be no herd immunity against a virus that is constantly mutating. Vaccines will keep the death toll in moderation, but the pandemic will continue.
That's not necessarily true.
All viruses constantly mutate. Viral replication is very messy (imagine being told to copy out a piece of text 100 times when you're tipsy and snoozy & each time you make a copy, the previous version is whipped away and so copy 2 is based on copy 1, rather than the source) & we have eradicated others (smallpox - nearly polio).
If every national government for a country of, say, >1 million people built a factory for producing vaccines that would produce enough each year to cover their entire population & those of any small neighbours who need it, and licensed the rights to produce the vaccine from the creators, then it could be pretty much eradicated in a year or two. Rich countries could lend or give the money to poor ones & could also offer their GMP inspectors' expertise to ensure a quality factory was in place. Moderna's vaccine, for example, is not only stable without an extreme cold chain, but is also easily amendable to cover variants. It is a massive failure of imagination and leadership that there aren't 100 more vaccine-producing factories that are almost ready to go into operation.
If the patent holder wouldn't license the vaccine at a reasonable price, then a country can pass legislation saying that within that country they are nationalising the patent because of the public health emergency. They can even, if they wish, pay the patent holder compensation. There are always new viruses and so, once this pandemic is over, the factories could be repurposed for another vaccine or for some other medicines, or even for something entirely different. After all, the infrastructure to bring in raw materials & remove finished goods is the same for everything, as is the foundations & canteen & all the ancillary stuff (in fact, a vaccine plant would probably be built to higher spec than almost anything else, space stuff excepted).

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by headshot » Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:15 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... e74739e5cc
Vaccines 'due to be rolled out to the over-40s this week', NHS chief says

The Department of Health and Social Care confirmed that doses of the Moderna vaccine will be rolled out in England from “mid April” after first doses were already delivered in Wales and Scotland, while an NHS chief said jabs would be offered to the over-40s as early as this week, PA reports.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:42 am


An estimated 10,400 deaths have been averted as a result of the COVID-19 vaccination programme up to the end of March 2021.
This analysis is based on the direct effects of the vaccination on mortality. There is increasing evidence that both vaccines in use in England prevent infection and transmission. The indirect effects of the vaccination programme will not be incorporated in this analysis, therefore the figure of 10,400 deaths averted is likely to be an underestimate.
These findings provide further evidence that the COVID-19 vaccination programme is already having a significant impact on severe COVID-19 disease in England beyond the effect of the national lockdown. Furthermore, the true value of these vaccines may be in terms of future deaths we might now avoid if there is a resurgence of covid-19 in the UK in the future.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... _March.pdf

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by science_fox » Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:46 am

headshot wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:15 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... e74739e5cc
Vaccines 'due to be rolled out to the over-40s this week', NHS chief says

The Department of Health and Social Care confirmed that doses of the Moderna vaccine will be rolled out in England from “mid April” after first doses were already delivered in Wales and Scotland, while an NHS chief said jabs would be offered to the over-40s as early as this week, PA reports.
If anyone's not seen this is for the Over 45s as of yesterday morning. The NHS booking website was very very busy with slots disappearing as you try to book them. Less busy areas might not be as bad.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:51 am

For Wales it's actually 40-44 as well, joining Northern Ireland in moving to the next band.

England probably has some areas where GPs/local networks are inviting 40-44 - the 45-49 invitation yesterday refers to the big vaccination centres which might not be quickest.

Scotland is slowest, still doing 50-55 I suspect.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:02 pm

introduction of vaccine passports would constitute an unethical form of coercion and violation of the principle of informed consent

“If the vaccines are highly effective in preventing significant disease, as seems to be the evidence from trial results to date, then those who have been vaccinated have already received protection; there is no benefit to them of other people being vaccinated,” says the UK Christian interdenominational department of epidemiology.
molto tricky

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by headshot » Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:25 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:02 pm
introduction of vaccine passports would constitute an unethical form of coercion and violation of the principle of informed consent

“If the vaccines are highly effective in preventing significant disease, as seems to be the evidence from trial results to date, then those who have been vaccinated have already received protection; there is no benefit to them of other people being vaccinated,” says the UK Christian interdenominational department of epidemiology.
And what about people who CAN’T be vaccinated. Just leave them to die I guess. It’s what Jesus would do.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Sun Apr 18, 2021 5:48 pm

Honestly I'm a bit torn. I know there are people who haven't had a chance to be vaccinated yet and I know that a certain vaccine (usually the Pfizer) might be indicated for people with certain conditions, but the proportion who are medically indicated to not have any of the covid vaccines at all seems to me to be quite small.

Regarding the people who choose not to get vaccinated, I note that the link says
Many church leaders have backed efforts to persuade people to be vaccinated against Covid. The Give Hope campaign, launched in February, sought to dispel vaccination concerns, particularly among black churchgoers.
which is good.

But then my mum (who has had both AstraZeneca doses now) showed me a video circulating on one of her WhatsApps (either directly related to her church or at least involving others she knows from her church) saying that a vaccination against covid was nonsense because it's an RNA based virus like HIV is and there's no HIV vaccine.

I certainly feel quite strongly that someone's choice not to be vaccinated when offered, in the absence of medical indications and logistical problems like "ok but you have to drive 100 miles to get it whether you have a car or not" should not pass without consequence. We've all made sacrifices over the past year, and 24 hours of fever is the least I can do if it (for example) helps break chains of transmission between university students* and therefore keep the daily stats a bit lower.

* - hard to see how vaccinating me will actually achieve this of course, but that's how the Italian rollout went and me refusing it wouldn't have helped the over-80's get it any faster.

In this particular case it looks like the church saying "we don't want the government intrusively controlling every aspect of people's personal lives" which would be fine if the church didn't historically have that reputation itself.
molto tricky

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by bob sterman » Sun Apr 18, 2021 6:11 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:02 pm
introduction of vaccine passports would constitute an unethical form of coercion and violation of the principle of informed consent

“If the vaccines are highly effective in preventing significant disease, as seems to be the evidence from trial results to date, then those who have been vaccinated have already received protection; there is no benefit to them of other people being vaccinated,” says the UK Christian interdenominational department of epidemiology.
The open letter from Christian church leaders also includes this point...

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/an- ... -passports
People may have various reasons for being unable or unwilling to receive vaccines currently available including, for some Christians, serious issues of conscience related to the ethics of vaccine manufacture or testing
Presumably they are alluding to the use of cell lines derived from fetal tissue during vaccine development - i.e. the ethics of using collections of cells thousands of generations removed from the original fetal tissue, to help save the lives of (potentially) millions.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by sTeamTraen » Sun Apr 18, 2021 8:39 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 6:11 pm
The open letter from Christian church leaders also includes this point...

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/an- ... -passports
People may have various reasons for being unable or unwilling to receive vaccines currently available including, for some Christians, serious issues of conscience related to the ethics of vaccine manufacture or testing
Presumably they are alluding to the use of cell lines derived from fetal tissue during vaccine development - i.e. the ethics of using collections of cells thousands of generations removed from the original fetal tissue, to help save the lives of (potentially) millions.
I read somewhere that the total number of aborted fetuses used for every "aborted fetus cell line" ever, worldwide, is something like 2 or 3, from 40-50 years ago. I had no idea; I had actually thought that there was a minute amount of recent stem cells going into manufacturing.

And of course the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are entirely synthetic, so they'll have to come up with some other form of pretzel logic to object to that. Perhaps "Only God can make RNA, any synthesised version is blasphemy".
Something something hammer something something nail

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bob sterman
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by bob sterman » Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:47 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 8:39 pm
And of course the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are entirely synthetic, so they'll have to come up with some other form of pretzel logic to object to that. Perhaps "Only God can make RNA, any synthesised version is blasphemy".
I think the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were tested on these human cell lines at some point - to confirm they could induce appropriate protein synthesis. So they can rely on that.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by headshot » Sat Apr 24, 2021 7:17 pm

Frau HS has a history of thrombosis in her maternal family line, so she took the advice of her GP who recommended she insist on Pfizer or Moderna at her vaccination appointment.

Appointment booked for today at a mass vaccination centre and all amped up to have a bit of a debate with the staff...but...

No vaccine for you today! Computer says no and your appointment isn’t recognised...thank you for your 20 mile round trip to get here.

You can sod off now and come back Monday.

BUT!!! Get this. 5 mins after we got home all pissed off at the cancellation, we got a call from our GP saying they had left over Pfizer doses and could we get to the surgery quickly...and we’re now BOTH Pfizered!!!

I don’t believe in fate, but that’s weird.

Also, Frau HS’s GP is excellent. Thoughtful, diligent and remembers details about her patients.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by jimbob » Sun Apr 25, 2021 9:33 am

bob sterman wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:00 pm
badger wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:26 am
The models were criticised for using out of date and flawed assumptions about levels of population immunity and effectiveness of the vaccine as well as failing to factor in reductions in transmission due to vaccination and seasonality.

Prof Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at Oxford University, said: "In my 20-plus years as a doctor, I've never come across a summer surge in a respiratory infection in the UK. The modelling now keeps changing dramatically, so it's hard to see how it helps us. What we really want to do is look at the real-world data and make decisions from there.

"One of the problems is nobody is going back and checking whether the modelling matched up with the reality. We know that modelling in schools has not helped us because it was incorrect. So we need to have a reality check."
Well - we know for sure that Heneghan's "modelling" didn't match up to reality.

August 30th, 2020 Heneghan made the following claims on BBC Radio 5...
- It's never been safer for students come back to universities.
- It's not right now a big issue.
- Right now, the disease is at a very low level.
- Anxiety [about going back to work in universities] is not well placed.
- Right now [COVID-19] is a low impact, a weak disease, that is not causing the same problems as it caused in March & April.
Followed, later in September by his "No evidence right now of a second wave" claim...

https://news.sky.com/video/square-video ... 4-12076907

Carl's "no evidence of a second wave claim" came after new case numbers had risen from 1000 per day in August, to about 5000-6000 per day around 20th September.
Yes we were discussing that in the main thread, including the spikes around university towns
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by nezumi » Fri Apr 30, 2021 9:20 am

When I went for jab#2 yesterday I asked and it looks like they are concentrating only on 2nd jabs for the week.

As an aside, I freaked out the nurses by watching the jab go in :lol:
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by headshot » Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:47 am

A friend in his early 40s who lives in Crystal Palace got his first vaccine dose 8 weeks ago, and just had his second. All through his GP. His wife too.

Though it does make me wonder about uptake in his area in general. Who's NOT getting vaccinated, meaning his appointments were brought forward?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Gfamily » Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:51 am

headshot wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:47 am
A friend in his early 40s who lives in Crystal Palace got his first vaccine dose 8 weeks ago, and just had his second. All through his GP. His wife too.
Apologies - but that sounds like it was a very very long needle !
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by headshot » Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:53 am

Gfamily wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:51 am
headshot wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:47 am
A friend in his early 40s who lives in Crystal Palace got his first vaccine dose 8 weeks ago, and just had his second. All through his GP. His wife too.
Apologies - but that sounds like it was a very very long needle !
Sheesh!



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