Vaccine rollout in the UK

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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Mon May 17, 2021 3:22 pm

By the way, there are 18 patients in hospital in Bolton... five had been vaccinated. Of the remainder, he said “the vast majority” had been eligible for the vaccine but had not taken it so far.

You can't really have a "vast majority" out of 13. It could be anything from 7 to 12, it's probably about 9 or 10.

So all this fuss is about 9-10 people.

Somewhere I found something about the IFR, I think when doing a risk:benefit calculation for young people getting the AstraZeneca, but frankly that could be anywhere on here.

I just remember that the IFR was a straight line on a semi-log plot, i.e. X years older meant you had Y times more risk from covid or something. IFR was roughly 0.1% for whatever age range I was looking at, as compared to a more general 2% in the entire population.

We've all seen stories of young healthy people dying of covid but (a) that's happened in places like the US or Brazil in which there were massive covid rates in the population or (b) it turns out that, in the nicest possible way, they weren't objectively that healthy to be honest.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by jimbob » Mon May 17, 2021 3:46 pm

headshot wrote:
Mon May 17, 2021 6:12 am
I’ve had enough of this b.llsh.t. You need to show evidence that transmission outside is significant. Telling people not to leave their homes, at all, is ridiculously over-cautious and damaging.
Indeed. Outside, more than 2m from anyone and more not close to anyone for any significant length of time looks pretty safe to me.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by bob sterman » Mon May 17, 2021 3:55 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon May 17, 2021 3:00 pm
For deaths, remember that approx 99% came from the 1-9 cohorts of >50s. So having 5% of those groups unvaccinated are going to lead to deaths (due mostly to failure of personal responsibility, partly due to an excellent-but-not-perfect outreach). And having imperfect vaccines are also going to lead to deaths. But there's simply no material risk of death to people outside the 1-9 cohorts - lower than risk of death from accidents for example.
Yes - there is a very steep gradient with IFR increasing dramatically with age. But the IFR for younger adults is non-negligible.

The following paper specifically compares the IFR for different age bands with the risk of accidental death. Even for the 35-44 age group the estimated IFR for COVID-19 is higher than the annual age specific accident fatality rate (but of course you need to factor in the probability of getting infected - very low with current community prevalence levels).

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7721859/
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by OffTheRock » Mon May 17, 2021 4:05 pm

I thought it was 5 have had one dose and 1 was fully vaccinated, leaving 12 as being unvaccinated.

I’m not sure how much you can extrapolate from that. I’m guessing the point Hancock was making was that the people who hadn’t been vaccinated should have been so get your vaccine. (and it’s not our fault). It does sort of side step the issue of being eligible to get a vaccine and getting one aren’t always the same thing.


I’d agree about outside. Being CV, I have very little problem with being outside and vaguely distanced. Even less so, given the very low level of cases here and vaccination status of who I’m with.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon May 17, 2021 4:50 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Mon May 17, 2021 3:55 pm
lpm wrote:
Mon May 17, 2021 3:00 pm
For deaths, remember that approx 99% came from the 1-9 cohorts of >50s. So having 5% of those groups unvaccinated are going to lead to deaths (due mostly to failure of personal responsibility, partly due to an excellent-but-not-perfect outreach). And having imperfect vaccines are also going to lead to deaths. But there's simply no material risk of death to people outside the 1-9 cohorts - lower than risk of death from accidents for example.
Yes - there is a very steep gradient with IFR increasing dramatically with age. But the IFR for younger adults is non-negligible.

The following paper specifically compares the IFR for different age bands with the risk of accidental death. Even for the 35-44 age group the estimated IFR for COVID-19 is higher than the annual age specific accident fatality rate (but of course you need to factor in the probability of getting infected - very low with current community prevalence levels).
It's hard to unpick <50s with pre-existing conditions from general <50s in any of the statistics.

Saying "IFR for younger adults is non-negligible" is not the same as saying "IFR for younger adults without underlying health conditions is non-negligible".

In the UK "Clinically Extremely Vulnerable" of all over 16s were in the 1-4 cohorts and "Underlying Health Conditions" over 16 were within the 5-9 cohorts. All the former will have been offered the second dose several weeks ago and most of the later will now have had/been offered the second at least two weeks ago.

Of course some of the people <50 dying of Covid will be people who were unaware of underlying health conditions so never got a chance of the vaccine.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon May 17, 2021 5:02 pm

OffTheRock wrote:
Mon May 17, 2021 4:05 pm
I’m not sure how much you can extrapolate from that. I’m guessing the point Hancock was making was that the people who hadn’t been vaccinated should have been so get your vaccine. (and it’s not our fault). It does sort of side step the issue of being eligible to get a vaccine and getting one aren’t always the same thing.
We've got to return to basic principles of personal responsibity. The vaccine has been offered and available to all >50s in the hotspots for well over a month.

Out of

(1) personal responsibility
(2) government / NHS / public health experts
(3) me or you

the responsibility for an eligible person in Bolton getting vaccinated is a hell of a lot (1) with a decent chunk of (2). The government can't dodge responsibility for outreach and has to accept some fault.

But (3) can't be held accountable. There's no way any of us should be accepting limits on our freedoms due to other people's failures at (1) and (2). I pay tax and I want some of it to fund the government's public health programs, but I'm not compromising my normal life to protect individuals who failed to fulfill basic responsibilities of citizenship.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by OffTheRock » Mon May 17, 2021 5:28 pm

That wasn't really where I was coming from. It's assuming that all the people who haven't been vaccinated are vaccine refusers. I can't speak for Bolton, but not all vaccine hubs are very accessible if you don't drive. Sometimes they are hours away even if you do. In which case, you are probably waiting for a call up from your GP rather than using the national service. Some might have an appointment booked, some might have booked it for last week but already had Covid and couldn't attend. Some people will have been turned away at the appointment due to medical history if their local hubs are only using AZ. Some might be eligible now, but weren't when they contracted covid.

People do have a personal responsibility, but the government also has a history of blaming the people for mistakes they have made during this pandemic.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by jimbob » Mon May 17, 2021 5:58 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon May 17, 2021 7:41 am
Gfamily wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 11:06 pm
lpm wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 10:32 pm

99% of the fatality rate is gone. This is not a predominantly fatal illness.
It never was, did you have a point? Or, maybe, you might prefer to clarify the point you are making.
The point is that the moral argument for lockdown is shaky and knee-jerk memories of a year ago when lockdown was essential are destructive.

Ignoring the silly forum troll, which everyone should do, it's worrying that top contributors like Jimbob endorse over reactions. Why should I give up my freedoms for a disease with such a low fatality rate of <40s? I take personal responsibility for my health, why can't I expect others to do the same?

Where's the argument? The true burden on the NHS is alcohol and nicotine. When can I start demanding extreme government interventions to save hospital capacity from these burdens? The long term determinant of health is deprivation, so why aren't people more opposed to lockdowns that worsen the underlying problem?
The hospital data for Bolton (at least that publicly available) is only to 5th May, so it's missing most of the recent growth.

We hope that the variant is not more dangerous to younger people, but we have anecdotes that at least one Brazilian mutation seems worse for younger people - do we have any knowledge for the Indian variants?

There's a case for at least shutting schools in Bolton. And possibly Long Eaton.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by OffTheRock » Mon May 17, 2021 6:31 pm

Singapore is closing all its schools but I'm not sure whether that's because it just spreading more among children than previous strains or whether it's more dangerous to them. I think it's the former rather than the latter.

Definitely a case for not having got rid of masks in UK schools and maybe closing them in the worst affected areas. It's only 2 weeks til half term anyway. Bit less in the areas that still have a 2 week half term break in May.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon May 17, 2021 7:28 pm

OffTheRock wrote:
Mon May 17, 2021 5:28 pm
That wasn't really where I was coming from. It's assuming that all the people who haven't been vaccinated are vaccine refusers. I can't speak for Bolton, but not all vaccine hubs are very accessible if you don't drive. Sometimes they are hours away even if you do. In which case, you are probably waiting for a call up from your GP rather than using the national service. Some might have an appointment booked, some might have booked it for last week but already had Covid and couldn't attend. Some people will have been turned away at the appointment due to medical history if their local hubs are only using AZ. Some might be eligible now, but weren't when they contracted covid.

People do have a personal responsibility, but the government also has a history of blaming the people for mistakes they have made during this pandemic.
In fact none of those things apply. It's not the case that >50s were simply offered an appointment at a vaccine hub and that was it. All were offered multiple opportunities in multiple locations through multiple intermediaries - and still are.

Any obstacle we can think of, the public health professionals can think of. They have sent teams to housebound people, to the homeless of all ages, offered through community centres, local sessions, vaccination buses touring neighbourhoods, approaching women discreetly, information in every language, using all available vaccines. First doses for 1-9 were pretty much done in late March, hard to reach arms were done by mid April.

Any 1-9 un-first dosed now is effectively a refuser. The failure of govt outreach for them doesn't come from local inflexibility and vaccine admin problems, it comes from long term problems in the relationship between people and government - conspiracy theory, distrust, immigration status, previous failures of the health service to deliver, ignorance.

There's no way to fault local NHS teams who have been incredibly innovative in getting needles to difficult arms and have scored the world's best vaccination rate. The fault that we should assign to the govt comes from deeper structural issues.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by raven » Tue May 18, 2021 10:57 pm

OffTheRock wrote:
Mon May 17, 2021 6:31 pm
Definitely a case for not having got rid of masks in UK schools and maybe closing them in the worst affected areas. It's only 2 weeks til half term anyway. Bit less in the areas that still have a 2 week half term break in May.
Last week's flu&covid surveillance reports would seem to back that up. The first slide of this graph one shows cases rates broken down by region and age. Obvious rise in 10-19 yr olds in the East Midlands and North West, hints of same in Yorkshire&Humber.

Also the sensible public health lady from Bedford on telly this morning said closing secondaries was a possibility to get ahead of an increase there.

One reason they're not chucking vaccine at everybody in Bolton might be that the Indian VOC is already pretty widespread - 86 counties with more than 5 cases -- so it could take off in multiple places at once and they're not wanting to put all their vaccines in one basket, so to speak.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by jimbob » Wed May 19, 2021 2:50 pm

Tweet that seems genuine from Bolton
So my wife has been turned away and threatened with social services and a safeguarding referral at the vaccination centre for coming along with her baby.

Now unsurprisingly in tears.

This vaccine hesitancy amongst Asians really is a problem isn’t it?
https://twitter.com/sean9n/status/1394943711524663298
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Wed May 19, 2021 3:50 pm

raven wrote:
Tue May 18, 2021 10:57 pm


One reason they're not chucking vaccine at everybody in Bolton might be that the Indian VOC is already pretty widespread - 86 counties with more than 5 cases -- so it could take off in multiple places at once and they're not wanting to put all their vaccines in one basket, so to speak.
The only way to stop transmission is lockdown. The best way to prevent deaths is vaccination. Lockdown hard now to stop the virus in its tracks. Then aggressively vaccinate the community, concentrating on BAME and POC people. Business as usual is a recipe for disaster.
Double dose. Double mask. Double distance

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by mediocrity511 » Wed May 19, 2021 4:34 pm

jimbob wrote:
Wed May 19, 2021 2:50 pm
Tweet that seems genuine from Bolton
So my wife has been turned away and threatened with social services and a safeguarding referral at the vaccination centre for coming along with her baby.

Now unsurprisingly in tears.

This vaccine hesitancy amongst Asians really is a problem isn’t it?
https://twitter.com/sean9n/status/1394943711524663298
It doesn't surprise me. I've known of women have a battle to access midwife and scan appointments during the pandemic because they weren't allowed to bring their other children. I can understand asking parents to try avoid bringing children, but at the best of times sometimes people have no childcare, let alone at the moment.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Sat May 22, 2021 12:05 pm

The Guardian reports Today more than 50 million doses of the #NHSCOVIDVaccine will have been administered across England! as NHS England says 50 million have received a Covid jab.

You obviously get a lower quality of staff at the weekends.

(actual numbers: 31 million first doses, 18 million second doses; first doses are going slowly these days so about 29 million are protected by which I mean had their first dose at least two weeks ago.)
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Grumble » Sat May 22, 2021 1:42 pm

We’ve had a whole week of less than 10 reported daily deaths in the U.K.
You’ve got no chutzpah, your organisational skills are lacklustre and your timekeeping is abysmal.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon May 24, 2021 2:41 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri May 14, 2021 4:46 pm
2nd doses for the top 9 cohorts >50s brought forward from 12 weeks to 8 weeks.

I don't think this is going to work. Nearly all >50s are at the 8 week mark right now - so in theory this would mean nearly all remaining 2nd doses for >50s should be delivered today. I'm assuming that the capacity issues will mean bringing them forward by a couple of weeks, say to the 10 week mark.
Lol. Just got text message inviting me to book 2nd dose.

Was very excited.

Then saw the first available date was 12 weeks and 1 day after my 1st dose.

I mean, I'm on AZ, happy to wait for the full time interval, but this policy has been a bit of a joke. Presumably the NHS has ignored the govt decision because it was stupid and just kept to their pre-planned schedule. Anecdotally locally they're pushing 1st doses pretty hard which seems sensible to me.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Mon May 24, 2021 6:24 pm

Hope you get your second dose before Modi's variant gets you.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon May 24, 2021 6:57 pm

As there's almost zero cases round here, that's pretty much certain.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by OffTheRock » Mon May 24, 2021 10:46 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon May 24, 2021 2:41 pm
lpm wrote:
Fri May 14, 2021 4:46 pm
2nd doses for the top 9 cohorts >50s brought forward from 12 weeks to 8 weeks.

I don't think this is going to work. Nearly all >50s are at the 8 week mark right now - so in theory this would mean nearly all remaining 2nd doses for >50s should be delivered today. I'm assuming that the capacity issues will mean bringing them forward by a couple of weeks, say to the 10 week mark.
Lol. Just got text message inviting me to book 2nd dose.

Was very excited.

Then saw the first available date was 12 weeks and 1 day after my 1st dose.

I mean, I'm on AZ, happy to wait for the full time interval, but this policy has been a bit of a joke. Presumably the NHS has ignored the govt decision because it was stupid and just kept to their pre-planned schedule. Anecdotally locally they're pushing 1st doses pretty hard which seems sensible to me.
I’d imagine it was a complete nightmare so they decided it was easier to carry on as they were. I’d imagine it f.cks up whatever system is allocating vaccines for first/second doses as well. We have only been able to use our supply for 2nd doses for the last 2 months or so. I’ve no idea what happens if you start using 1st dose vaccines for second doses.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by raven » Tue May 25, 2021 10:45 am

lpm wrote:
Mon May 24, 2021 2:41 pm
lpm wrote:
Fri May 14, 2021 4:46 pm
2nd doses for the top 9 cohorts >50s brought forward from 12 weeks to 8 weeks.

I don't think this is going to work. Nearly all >50s are at the 8 week mark right now - so in theory this would mean nearly all remaining 2nd doses for >50s should be delivered today. I'm assuming that the capacity issues will mean bringing them forward by a couple of weeks, say to the 10 week mark.
Lol. Just got text message inviting me to book 2nd dose.

Was very excited.

Then saw the first available date was 12 weeks and 1 day after my 1st dose.

I mean, I'm on AZ, happy to wait for the full time interval, but this policy has been a bit of a joke. Presumably the NHS has ignored the govt decision because it was stupid and just kept to their pre-planned schedule. Anecdotally locally they're pushing 1st doses pretty hard which seems sensible to me.
I'm a bit worried that people are avoiding a 2nd dose of AZ here, because we got the call earlier than expected. MrRaven got his second dose today (10wks &2 days after the first) and I got my text invitation yesterday and am booked to get my 2nd tomorrow (a mere 9wks & 3 days after jab 1).

Hope 9 wks isn't too soon. But having it done & dusted will make me feel slightly better about going to my dentist next week...

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by headshot » Tue May 25, 2021 11:41 am

Frau HS and I have been trying to book 2nd Pfizer doses near to our place in The Black Country. We had our first dose at the GP, but they encouraged us to book online if we could.

All this week the nearest place was near Stockport. Today we managed to book for Redditch, 30 minutes drive away.

Very much at the latter end of the 12th week from our first dose.

Our GP may still call us up, so we'll see what happens.

f.ck knows what we'd do if we didn't drive.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Fri May 28, 2021 7:52 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Dec 08, 2020 11:17 am
shpalman wrote:
Tue Dec 08, 2020 9:34 am
Still no news about who the second one will be.
Turns out it's William Shakespeare

So that's two done.

Could probably do another couple this afternoon.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ntinian-tv
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Hunting Dog » Sat May 29, 2021 12:14 am

My second AZ jab is booked for 10th June, about 2 weeks away now. Today I got the email to say I could bring it forward, due to being high priority group.

Excitedly went online to see what dates were available. Discovered you can't see available dates until you've cancelled your existing booking. Decided to phone booking line instead. Eventually got through to a very nice and very frustrated lady who said they couldn't see available dates till after they had cancelled the original booking either, and that seemed to be putting a lot of people off the idea of trying for some reason...

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Sat May 29, 2021 3:56 am

Hunting Dog wrote:
Sat May 29, 2021 12:14 am
My second AZ jab is booked for 10th June, about 2 weeks away now. Today I got the email to say I could bring it forward, due to being high priority group.

Excitedly went online to see what dates were available. Discovered you can't see available dates until you've cancelled your existing booking. Decided to phone booking line instead. Eventually got through to a very nice and very frustrated lady who said they couldn't see available dates till after they had cancelled the original booking either, and that seemed to be putting a lot of people off the idea of trying for some reason...
Catastrophe. I am 11 weeks from first AZ jab, no word on second, modi variant is on the march.
Double dose. Double mask. Double distance

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