Vaccine rollout in the UK

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Catbabel
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by headshot » Sat May 29, 2021 6:25 am

Herainestold wrote:
Sat May 29, 2021 3:56 am
Hunting Dog wrote:
Sat May 29, 2021 12:14 am
My second AZ jab is booked for 10th June, about 2 weeks away now. Today I got the email to say I could bring it forward, due to being high priority group.

Excitedly went online to see what dates were available. Discovered you can't see available dates until you've cancelled your existing booking. Decided to phone booking line instead. Eventually got through to a very nice and very frustrated lady who said they couldn't see available dates till after they had cancelled the original booking either, and that seemed to be putting a lot of people off the idea of trying for some reason...
Catastrophe. I am 11 weeks from first AZ jab, no word on second, modi variant is on the march.
Go online and book it. What are you waiting for? They’ve got AZ coming out of their ears.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Hunting Dog » Sat May 29, 2021 9:39 am

headshot wrote:
Sat May 29, 2021 6:25 am
Herainestold wrote:
Sat May 29, 2021 3:56 am
Hunting Dog wrote:
Sat May 29, 2021 12:14 am
My second AZ jab is booked for 10th June, about 2 weeks away now. Today I got the email to say I could bring it forward, due to being high priority group.

Excitedly went online to see what dates were available. Discovered you can't see available dates until you've cancelled your existing booking. Decided to phone booking line instead. Eventually got through to a very nice and very frustrated lady who said they couldn't see available dates till after they had cancelled the original booking either, and that seemed to be putting a lot of people off the idea of trying for some reason...
Catastrophe. I am 11 weeks from first AZ jab, no word on second, modi variant is on the march.
Go online and book it. What are you waiting for? They’ve got AZ coming out of their ears.
For Herainestold at 11 weeks out it sounds worth trying to get an earlier date if they're eligible to bring it forward now. I'm not risking cancelling my two weeks out appointment, I asked the lady on the phone if I might find I couldn't actually get a slot till July once I'd cancelled the June one, she said it was unlikely, but couldn't guarantee that wouldn't happen!

Herainestold
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Sat May 29, 2021 6:29 pm

headshot wrote:
Sat May 29, 2021 6:25 am
Herainestold wrote:
Sat May 29, 2021 3:56 am
Hunting Dog wrote:
Sat May 29, 2021 12:14 am
My second AZ jab is booked for 10th June, about 2 weeks away now. Today I got the email to say I could bring it forward, due to being high priority group.

Excitedly went online to see what dates were available. Discovered you can't see available dates until you've cancelled your existing booking. Decided to phone booking line instead. Eventually got through to a very nice and very frustrated lady who said they couldn't see available dates till after they had cancelled the original booking either, and that seemed to be putting a lot of people off the idea of trying for some reason...
Catastrophe. I am 11 weeks from first AZ jab, no word on second, modi variant is on the march.
Go online and book it. What are you waiting for? They’ve got AZ coming out of their ears.
Okay, so July. I can keep a low profile until then, I do anyway. We'll be back under general lockdown by then anyway, so it won't be so different from the last six months.
Double dose. Double mask. Double distance

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Millennie Al » Sat May 29, 2021 11:48 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sat May 29, 2021 3:56 am
Catastrophe. I am 11 weeks from first AZ jab, no word on second, modi variant is on the march.
What catastrophe? If you're that far off on the schedule, unless you've been mis-classified, you're too young and healthy to be at much of a risk. The disease is a threat at the population level - much less so at the personal level.
Covid-19 - Don't catch it: don't spread it.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Sun May 30, 2021 3:45 am

Millennie Al wrote:
Sat May 29, 2021 11:48 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Sat May 29, 2021 3:56 am
Catastrophe. I am 11 weeks from first AZ jab, no word on second, modi variant is on the march.
What catastrophe? If you're that far off on the schedule, unless you've been mis-classified, you're too young and healthy to be at much of a risk. The disease is a threat at the population level - much less so at the personal level.
No, I had it 11 weeks ago and no 2nd dose referal, so I booked for July. One dose is basically unvaccinated against modi variant, so have to hold on a while longer yet. I'd be much happier if we were in lockdown if I have to wait another 8 weeks for my jab.
Double dose. Double mask. Double distance

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by raven » Mon May 31, 2021 10:39 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sun May 30, 2021 3:45 am
Millennie Al wrote:
Sat May 29, 2021 11:48 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Sat May 29, 2021 3:56 am
Catastrophe. I am 11 weeks from first AZ jab, no word on second, modi variant is on the march.
What catastrophe? If you're that far off on the schedule, unless you've been mis-classified, you're too young and healthy to be at much of a risk. The disease is a threat at the population level - much less so at the personal level.
No, I had it 11 weeks ago and no 2nd dose referal, so I booked for July. One dose is basically unvaccinated against modi variant, so have to hold on a while longer yet. I'd be much happier if we were in lockdown if I have to wait another 8 weeks for my jab.
I got 2 days notice of my 2nd jab. (By text, from the GPs.) So you might get a call shortly, in which case you can cancel the July slot.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by jimbob » Wed Jun 02, 2021 8:49 pm

Image

England case numbers sorted into demographics

It's a race between the vaccine and the third wave
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Wed Jun 02, 2021 9:05 pm

It is a race. How quickly could we pivot to the Covaxin whole virion (virus) inactivated Covid-19 vaccine, developed in India?
It has better efficacy against the Modi Delta variant, than AZ , I'm not sure how it compares to mRNA and Sputnik.

Does anybody have any figures about above vaccines against current Modi Delta variant?

Could AZ facilities produce Covaxin or Sputnik?
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by headshot » Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:15 am

Frau HS and I got a call yesterday from my GP to book our 2nd jabs. Now book in for 10th June - 47 days after our first jabs.

So it seems like they’re racing through the cohorts in our area at least...

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Martin Y » Thu Jun 03, 2021 10:01 am

Hunting Dog wrote:
Sat May 29, 2021 12:14 am
My second AZ jab is booked for 10th June, about 2 weeks away now. Today I got the email to say I could bring it forward, due to being high priority group.

Excitedly went online to see what dates were available. Discovered you can't see available dates until you've cancelled your existing booking. Decided to phone booking line instead. Eventually got through to a very nice and very frustrated lady who said they couldn't see available dates till after they had cancelled the original booking either, and that seemed to be putting a lot of people off the idea of trying for some reason...
Just noticed this. I too hesitated over the stupid "cancel first, then book a new slot" process last week, but concluded they wouldn't be suggesting it if sooner slots weren't available. So I went for it and got my jab in 2 days (10 days sooner than originally booked).

PS I booked at about 8pm. I wouldn't be surprised if an earlier booking would have been offered next day timeslots, but I was offered day-after-next.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Fri Jun 04, 2021 4:07 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:32 pm
OffTheRock wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:19 pm
From what I've read, it's partly to do with mutations as well.

No good vaccinating your entire population if Covid is ripping through other countries who don't have as much access to the vaccine and develops a mutation that doesn't respond to the vaccine. They can adjust the vaccine fairly quickly, but it would be a bit of a waste of the vaccines already in arms and still waiting to be put in arms. It already looks as if the Novovax is less effective against 1 of the SA strains.
The world doesn't really know where the next variant will arise. (Just like we can't just give the vaccine to the young "superspreaders" because we've no idea who the person who brings the infection to the party is going to be, i.e. it would mean just vaccinating all the young people, and we decided that a better way to protect old people was to vaccinate them directly.)

Or course you eventually want to vaccinate everyone, but right now if you had just enough doses to vaccinate your entire population what's the argument for instead spreading the doses around the rest of the world? A partially vaccinated population is a great place to breed a vaccine-resistant strain.
... and then I thought that this wouldn't happen, and that the UK's strategy of lots of first doses was the right one, and now it seems we have the Delta variant which is quite effective in infecting people who've just had one dose...
molto tricky

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by headshot » Fri Jun 04, 2021 4:10 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 4:07 pm
shpalman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:32 pm
OffTheRock wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:19 pm
From what I've read, it's partly to do with mutations as well.

No good vaccinating your entire population if Covid is ripping through other countries who don't have as much access to the vaccine and develops a mutation that doesn't respond to the vaccine. They can adjust the vaccine fairly quickly, but it would be a bit of a waste of the vaccines already in arms and still waiting to be put in arms. It already looks as if the Novovax is less effective against 1 of the SA strains.
The world doesn't really know where the next variant will arise. (Just like we can't just give the vaccine to the young "superspreaders" because we've no idea who the person who brings the infection to the party is going to be, i.e. it would mean just vaccinating all the young people, and we decided that a better way to protect old people was to vaccinate them directly.)

Or course you eventually want to vaccinate everyone, but right now if you had just enough doses to vaccinate your entire population what's the argument for instead spreading the doses around the rest of the world? A partially vaccinated population is a great place to breed a vaccine-resistant strain.
... and then I thought that this wouldn't happen, and that the UK's strategy of lots of first doses was the right one, and now it seems we have the Delta variant which is quite effective in infecting people who've just had one dose...
It was the correct strategy for the Kent variant I suppose.

Things have changed...now they seem to be adapting by bringing second doses forward.

Let’s hope young adults and children are resilient enough to Delta.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Fri Jun 04, 2021 4:49 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 4:07 pm
... and then I thought that this wouldn't happen, and that the UK's strategy of lots of first doses was the right one, and now it seems we have the Delta variant which is quite effective in infecting people who've just had one dose...
It hasn't made much difference.

If there'd been a 3 week gap for the 1-9 Cohorts, Group 1 would have been double-dosed months ago. But Group 9 would have waited and waited for their first doses while second doses were delivered to the earlier groups. Group 9 wouldn't be long second dosed by now in either scenario.

It's simple maths, 32 million people in 1-9, 67 million doses delivered, so we're not very far past the 64 million two dose requirement.

Arguably we'd now be in a position where the most vulnerable Group 1 would have been double-dosed by end of Jan and now 5 months along with possible diminishing immunity, rather than only 2 months along.

I'd guess it's better to have a large number of 30-50s first dosed but some 50-60s waiting for their second, than fewer people with the first dose. The transmission reduction from a single dose in 30-50s is almost certainly suppressing the speed of third wave. I'd still say to keep 50-60s waiting the full 12 weeks and deliver more first doses, but the govt decided otherwise with the slight acceleration. In any case, the next week basically finishes the second dose bulge and the first dose rate should rebound.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:23 pm

Damned if you do, damned if you don't. The first doses strategy worked well until now, but of course the virus evolved to get around that and we need two doses. Need lockdown and border controls to get everybody vaxxed with two.
Double dose. Double mask. Double distance

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:49 pm

Utter nonsense. The virus has not evolved to get around one dose. Are you never embarrassed by how stupid you are?
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Fri Jun 04, 2021 6:30 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:49 pm
Utter nonsense. The virus has not evolved to get around one dose. Are you never embarrassed by how stupid you are?
Well it seems like it has. Evolutionally it will evolve into whatever niche is more advantageous for it. That is why each variant is more transmissible than the previous one. If it was less transmissible, it would be out competed. How much original Wuhan type covid are we seeing now?

We were told that the first dose strategy allowed community immunity to develop more quickly, even if the first dose is only 60% as effective as two doses, as more people will be somewhat protected. Evidence from wave 2 seems to support this hypothesis. Now with delta we see first dose efficacy being below 50% which kind of destroys the rationale for the first dose protocol. Evolution is smart, the virus will always shift into whatever mode we leave for it to grow into.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Sat Jun 05, 2021 8:02 am

Bolton GPs offer second Covid jabs four weeks after first to use surplus
Town is ‘drowning in vaccines’ and bending national rules while other areas ask for more first doses
Some GPs in Bolton have been sent so many doses of the Pfizer vaccine that they are offering second jabs a month earlier than government rules allow, concerned that otherwise they may be wasted.

...

Across England, some local health services are offering jabs to people aged 18 or even 16 and over, while others – such as Blackburn, the current Covid hotspot – have begged for more first doses.
molto tricky

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Sat Jun 05, 2021 8:42 am

It does seems to have gone wrong somewhere. A lot of clinics half empty, others maxed out.

Somebody on Twitter keeps claiming to know the stock levels but his figures are crazy high - he must be doing something wrong somewhere. His threads are always muddled.

But it does look possible to do a two week burst of mega levels.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Sat Jun 05, 2021 8:49 am

lpm wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 8:42 am
It does seems to have gone wrong somewhere. A lot of clinics half empty, others maxed out.

Somebody on Twitter keeps claiming to know the stock levels but his figures are crazy high - he must be doing something wrong somewhere. His threads are always muddled.

But it does look possible to do a two week burst of mega levels.
Yeah because Wales publishes its stock levels so he scales up to the whole UK, but when I tried reproducing his calculations I think I estimated about 75% of what he reckoned.
molto tricky

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Sun Jun 06, 2021 8:37 am

shpalman wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 8:49 am
lpm wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 8:42 am
It does seems to have gone wrong somewhere. A lot of clinics half empty, others maxed out.

Somebody on Twitter keeps claiming to know the stock levels but his figures are crazy high - he must be doing something wrong somewhere. His threads are always muddled.

But it does look possible to do a two week burst of mega levels.
Yeah because Wales publishes its stock levels so he scales up to the whole UK, but when I tried reproducing his calculations I think I estimated about 75% of what he reckoned.
Here's where I did that:
shpalman wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 11:25 am
shpalman wrote:
Wed May 12, 2021 5:47 am
the UK has a stockpile of about 12 million doses

(Italy has a stockpile of about 2.5 million as of this morning).
more on how that's calculated

Although if I do it, I note that Scotland currently has had 5,333,050 "doses allocated" even if only 4,837,850 have been "delivered" so far, while 4,602,858 have been given.

So Scotland has used ~95% of the doses "delivered" to it but that corresponds to ~86% of its total "allocation" so far. It's vaccinating about 40,000 a day so its deliveries give it about a week's supply but its allocation is about 12 days more. Italy's average is at about 90% and its stockpile is about 3 million i.e. similarly not quite enough for a week.

If you scale that up to the whole of the UK, such that the 56,018,988 doses given is ~86% of what we imagine the total stock is, the total stock would be about 65 million i.e. there's "only" a stockpile of 9 million in the whole UK.

Ok you still manage to have ~3 times the stockpile of a similarly-sized EU country, rather than 4 times. And in general, you've had a number of doses delivered which is ~1 for every member of the population, whereas the EU is generally at ~0.5.
molto tricky

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Sun Jun 06, 2021 9:20 am

There must be confusion from the word allocated. The UK does not have 12 million doses sitting around. More like 2 to 3 million.

What it will be is doses in factories waiting completion. There is the testing stage. Doses in factories will be allocated to regions because they need that info to package them up and get the drivers where to take them. In logistics, products are allocated to customers early on, before they are ready to ship. A Walls ice cream warehouse will have allocated cornetto deliveries to supermarket warehouses before those cornettos are available or even exist in the country.

The actual figure we want to know is the max under a hypothetical where every jabber works 24 hours a day for a week on an endless queue using every available vial in the country. That figure would be around 6 million in a week, compared to currently doing 3 million.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Sun Jun 06, 2021 9:38 am

Scotland "currently"* has 6,371,720 allocated and 5,791,490 delivered while "3,326,005 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 2,170,570 have received their second dose".

* - actually, as of 1st June.

I make that 5,496,575 doses administered, which is 94.9% of the delivered doses. On the 31st of May I had Italy at about 95% but it dropped to 89% the next day because of a delivery of about 3 million Pfizer doses.
lpm wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 9:20 am
There must be confusion from the word allocated. The UK does not have 12 million doses sitting around. More like 2 to 3 million.

What it will be is doses in factories waiting completion. There is the testing stage. Doses in factories will be allocated to regions because they need that info to package them up and get the drivers where to take them. In logistics, products are allocated to customers early on, before they are ready to ship. A Walls ice cream warehouse will have allocated cornetto deliveries to supermarket warehouses before those cornettos are available or even exist in the country.
"A vaccine dose will be allocated to a region before it's ready to ship"

"huh, don't understand"

"Some ice cream will be allocated to a supermarket before it's ready to ship"

"oh now I get it"
lpm wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 9:20 am
The actual figure we want to know is the max under a hypothetical where every jabber works 24 hours a day for a week on an endless queue using every available vial in the country. That figure would be around 6 million in a week, compared to currently doing 3 million.
It would be 6 million in that week, but that week only, because it dose seem you aren't getting supply faster than that, unless anyone has made a graph.

Some regions of Italy have sometimes had to slow down because they didn't know when the next doses of vaccine were coming from. I mean, we had tens of millions of AstraZeneca vaccines "allocated"* in this quarter which will never show up at all.

* - or rather that AZ would make its "best efforts" to deliver that many, except that its best effort was still sh.t.
molto tricky

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Sun Jun 06, 2021 10:00 am

Yep. I've gone into the source documents and this Paul Mainwood has made exactly this mistake on "allocated". A very obvious mistake.

He claims: "The Scottish and Welsh documents also give definitions: "Allocated" means held centrally by Public Health England and available for delivery."

This is incorrect. The documents don't define it as that at all. "Allocated" does not mean available for delivery, it means available for order. These are two very different things.
total number of doses allocated refers to the number of doses that have been made available by Public Health England to the Scottish Government for ordering
The total number of doses allocated refers to the number of doses that, in the case of the Oxford / AstraZeneca and Moderna vaccines have been made available by Public Health England to the Welsh Government for ordering (up to 11:55 on 10 May 2021) or, in the case of the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine, delivered directly from the manufacturer to Wales (up to the end of 10 May 2021).
It's like Tesco UK telling Tesco Wales there are 12 million cornettos available for ordering - meaning Wales can place orders now for deliveries over the next few weeks. Tesco Wales can't just order 12 million cornettos for delivery tomorrow - the Walls factory hasn't made those cornettos yet, they just know they'll have them soon and so can commit to orders from Tesco UK.

I've got serious doubts about the motivation of Paul Mainwood. Either he directly lied when he typed out his false definition of allocated. Or he made a mistake and later knew he was mistaken when it threw out mad results like 12 million being the stockpile of doses. But he's getting loads of twitter attention.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by jimbob » Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:38 am

I think this might be showing an impact of vaccination in the NW.

Covid cases for each age group.

the highest number of cases (not rates) is in 10-20 yr olds (bottom right graph)

Image
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by raven » Sun Jun 13, 2021 4:41 pm

Ok, I'm confuzzled.

The official gov dashboard puts the whole UK at 78.9% first doses and 56.6% second doses today.

But the the weekly flu and Covid report (which admittedly only goes up to Jun 6th) has England at 54.4% first doses and 38.2% second.

England can't be that far behind the other nations. I thought at first they were counting it out of the whole population instead of everyone over 18. But something is well fishy about the total population they're using, because it's almost 62 million when the ONS reckon England weighs in at 56m and some change.

*scratches head* Are they counting temporary visitors or something? Migrant workers?

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