Vaccine rollout in the UK

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by headshot » Mon Dec 21, 2020 7:50 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:26 pm
Matt Hancock tweets it, like a f.cking tw.t

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f.cking state of these people
Flag w.nker.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Martin_B » Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:19 am

shpalman wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:26 pm
Matt Hancock tweets it, like a f.cking tw.t

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f.cking state of these people
Congratulations! Less than 1% of the population have received part-protection!
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Millennie Al » Tue Dec 22, 2020 1:23 am

mediocrity511 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:41 pm
So we have 800,000 doses delivered so far and have used over half of them on first doses. Better hope there's no delays getting hold of the next batch...
The first dose probably has some effect (though I don't think the trials measured it very much). From a population point of view, is it more useful to have 800,000 people who have had the first dose or 400,000 who have had both? One of the factors to consider is that if you are in the first situation, and more vaccine becomes available, you get to 800,000 people fully treated faster than from the second (because the next 400,000 have to wait between doses).

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Blackcountryboy » Tue Dec 22, 2020 3:35 pm

We have just been informed that Blackcountrygirl (she is only 80) and I will have our first dose on 30 December and the second dose on 20 January.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by discovolante » Tue Dec 22, 2020 3:42 pm

Congratulations!
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Tue Dec 22, 2020 4:24 pm

Excellent!
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Blackcountryboy » Tue Dec 22, 2020 5:05 pm

There was me thinking that when people didn't turn up for their jab it would go to front line staff to save it being wasted. Stupid old me.

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/m ... D6IRkIOor8

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by bolo » Tue Dec 22, 2020 6:19 pm

Blackcountryboy wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 5:05 pm
There was me thinking that when people didn't turn up for their jab it would go to front line staff to save it being wasted. Stupid old me.

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/m ... D6IRkIOor8
In other news, some people are egocentric a..holes.

Although this is indeed a particularly fine example of that.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:22 pm

having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Trinucleus » Wed Dec 23, 2020 11:57 am

Tony Blair says they're doing it wrong

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55410349

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Wed Dec 23, 2020 12:02 pm

Trinucleus wrote:
Wed Dec 23, 2020 11:57 am
Tony Blair says they're doing it wrong

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55410349
Well, what happens if you're late with the second dose? Does the first dose eventually "expire"?
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Wed Dec 23, 2020 12:33 pm

Trinucleus wrote:
Wed Dec 23, 2020 11:57 am
Tony Blair says they're doing it wrong

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55410349
Jeremy Corbyn says we should have done it with some sort of anarco-collective or something

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status ... 3873310720
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Wed Dec 23, 2020 2:44 pm

shpalman wrote:
Wed Dec 23, 2020 12:02 pm
Trinucleus wrote:
Wed Dec 23, 2020 11:57 am
Tony Blair says they're doing it wrong

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55410349
Well, what happens if you're late with the second dose? Does the first dose eventually "expire"?
Don't some journals effectively ban the phrase "more research is needed"?
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Wed Dec 23, 2020 3:54 pm

On the vaccine, Hancock said the government will be “publishing tomorrow the full data on the vaccination programme so far” and also that next year is also mostly f.cked.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:35 pm

Yay, "first dose total" has appeared at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

it's at 616,933 so there's clearly the plan to get through the first delivery of 800,000 rather than save half for second doses.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:08 am

predictable backlash from those who are supposed to give the vaccine without receiving it themselves
ministers decreeing that 75% of supplies of the Pfizer jab should be given to those over 80 and 20% to care home personnel, leaving just 5% – or 48 doses from a batch of 975 – for NHS staff.
“Vaccines stop people from passing viruses on. We have limited vaccines available. Who is most in need of a vaccine? The people who are forced to mix with others. And those people are the frontline healthcare staff looking after Covid-19 patients, who encounter Covid-19 continually.”
Except of course we don't know if this vaccine stops people from passing this virus on, because we haven't checked (personally, I think it does).

But realizing that if your health care workers get ill there'll be nobody to deliver the vaccines should be a good enough reason to suggest they're allowed to get vaccinated first.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:57 am

Tessa K wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:43 am
The Oxford vaccine just got approval but being realistic, how long is it going to take to vaccinate everyone (twice) and what happens in the meantime? I'm not expecting to get called for a jab until well into the spring.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55280671
shpalman wrote:
Wed Dec 16, 2020 8:03 am
29 NHSE&I is currently planning on the assumption that up to 25 million people could be vaccinated against COVID-19 in England throughout 2021 provided sufficient doses of vaccine are available.
Only 25 million? That wouldn't even be enough for everyone over 40.
Vaccinating 1 million people a week sounds like a lot but it's not enough.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Tessa K » Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:06 am

shpalman wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:57 am
Tessa K wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:43 am
The Oxford vaccine just got approval but being realistic, how long is it going to take to vaccinate everyone (twice) and what happens in the meantime? I'm not expecting to get called for a jab until well into the spring.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55280671
shpalman wrote:
Wed Dec 16, 2020 8:03 am
29 NHSE&I is currently planning on the assumption that up to 25 million people could be vaccinated against COVID-19 in England throughout 2021 provided sufficient doses of vaccine are available.
Only 25 million? That wouldn't even be enough for everyone over 40.
Vaccinating 1 million people a week sounds like a lot but it's not enough.
That's less than half the population (England currently around 56 million) and two caveats in the same sentence: could be... provided...

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by badger » Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:58 am

Tessa K wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:06 am
shpalman wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:57 am
Tessa K wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:43 am
The Oxford vaccine just got approval but being realistic, how long is it going to take to vaccinate everyone (twice) and what happens in the meantime? I'm not expecting to get called for a jab until well into the spring.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55280671
shpalman wrote:
Wed Dec 16, 2020 8:03 am


Only 25 million? That wouldn't even be enough for everyone over 40.
Vaccinating 1 million people a week sounds like a lot but it's not enough.
That's less than half the population (England currently around 56 million) and two caveats in the same sentence: could be... provided...
Didn't New York manage 6 million in about 3 weeks with Smallpox Vaccine?

Our local pharmacist has been looking for a local vaccination venue to operate 7 days per week/12 hour days. I guess we're going to need a lot of these very quickly! And people to staff them. NHS responder app has been sending out pleas for volunteers but it's going to be a monumental effort (if they even want to try for a properly 'game-changing moonshot' vaccination programme).

Great news re Oxford Vaccine. Have they published new results study yet? Or do we still have to take ~95% on trust?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by discovolante » Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:03 am

badger wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:58 am
Tessa K wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:06 am
shpalman wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:57 am




Vaccinating 1 million people a week sounds like a lot but it's not enough.
That's less than half the population (England currently around 56 million) and two caveats in the same sentence: could be... provided...
Didn't New York manage 6 million in about 3 weeks with Smallpox Vaccine?

Our local pharmacist has been looking for a local vaccination venue to operate 7 days per week/12 hour days. I guess we're going to need a lot of these very quickly! And people to staff them. NHS responder app has been sending out pleas for volunteers but it's going to be a monumental effort (if they even want to try for a properly 'game-changing moonshot' vaccination programme).

Great news re Oxford Vaccine. Have they published new results study yet? Or do we still have to take ~95% on trust?
See the 'developing the Covid vaccine' thread.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Grumble » Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:06 am

My sister is administering the Pfizer vaccine. Apparently you’re not allowed to even shake the vial, it’s so delicate. I do wonder if some vaccine doses will be ineffective because of that?
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by badger » Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:25 am

Thanks Disco, greatness of news slightly curtailed, it seems.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:24 am

I think the rollout will be easy. Even this government should be able to manage it.

It's a single product in a single process. This contrasts with test & trace which is multiple components needing to be brought together effectively, with complicated human behaviours needing to be changed.

All it takes is dragging in retirees and other people with medical experience, give them a bit of training, set up a centre, then get the supply of humans steadily walking or driving through. Reports from other countries show a festival atmosphere at mass vaccination sites, people enjoying the day despite queues lasting for hours.

I got a flu jab a few weeks ago, outside, with appointment times allowing 60 seconds per person, two jabbers at work so a person every 30 seconds. A centre will need a handful of admin people, some assistants to unpack vials, a coffee van, entertainment in the post-jab waiting area... Easy enough to add in friendly volunteers, e.g. the local vicar or women's institute, to keep the celebration moving along. As a country we have plenty of unused adminstrators and helpers currently on furlough - e.g. airline cabin crew - who can be taken on as helpers. The military can help with logistics but I suspect normal distribution systems are easily good enough.

Two million a week is only around 50,000 per hour. A couple of thousand jabbers could do that at the mass vaccination centres. Probably need another thousand to do the harder outreach stuff in nursing homes and other community living places.

My concern is lack of ambition, rather than the process. The government tends to do things half-heartedly and on the cheap. It needs to be bold. A true popularist would realise this is a chance for a national patriotic bonding event, something to enter the nation's mythology like singing songs during the blitz. But Johnson has pretty poor instincts for popularism.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:07 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:24 am
Tessa K wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:43 am
The Oxford vaccine just got approval but being realistic, how long is it going to take to vaccinate everyone (twice) and what happens in the meantime? I'm not expecting to get called for a jab until well into the spring.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55280671
It will be interesting to see what happens when most of the 10-15% most vulnerable people are vaccinated and so the death and hospitalisation rates drop, say by mid-February for deaths and mid-March for hospital admissions. There could be a lot less popular support for lockdown measures if the numbers of deaths fall to the "typical flu season" level. If at that point they open the pubs, you could have half a million cases a day shortly afterwards and then you'd have the same number of deaths and hospitalisations among younger people, just at the rate of 0.02% of cases instead of 5%.

There may also be quite a good effect from the first dose of the vaccine. Obviously we all have to follow the protocol, but I don't think the effect of the first dose will be zero.
Those 10-15% most vulnerable would be of the order of 6-9 million people. The UK has given Margaret Keenan her second dose but I still haven't seen how many first doses have been given last week. My main question would be if the ~500,000 who had their first doses in the week before that represented the whole of the available capacity which means from now on everyone will be busy giving second doses, and if/when ~1 million doses per week would be reached.

So do we think those 10-15% will have been done by the end of March?

(But it could at least get to the point where both the weather and the number of people vaccinated allows a bit of outdoor pubbery to start happening. It would be difficult to argue for forbidding it, based on whatever the new-infections and deaths numbers are doing. I'd hope to argue for waiting a bit longer before reopening so that there's a bit more control over what happens.)

Has that order of 10 5 million Pfizer doses starting arriving yet? The original batch of 800,000 must have been all used by now.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Sciolus » Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:33 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:24 am
Two million a week is only around 50,000 per hour. A couple of thousand jabbers could do that at the mass vaccination centres. Probably need another thousand to do the harder outreach stuff in nursing homes and other community living places.
I find it hard to think in those terms. Consider a medium-sized town of 200,000 people -- York, Portsmouth, Peterborough, Aberdeen. Suppose you are able to process four doses a minute -- assuming a minute per dose that might be two centres with two process lines each. Assume a single shift pattern, i.e. each process line works for 7 hours a day, 20 days a month. That's six months to do half the population with two doses. If there are no manufacturing or distribution bottlenecks, I agree, that seems a decidedly unambitious level of activity. So we really ought to be able to get everyone done before summer just looking at the logistics of doing the jabbing.

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