Vaccine rollout in the UK

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OffTheRock
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by OffTheRock » Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:33 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:40 am
Well, not refused the vaccine, but kept waiting 2 or 3 months too long for the vaccine.

But anecdotally the problem is the other way - poor take up by Group 6. All other groups have had 80% running out the house to get the first possible appointment, then steadily ticking up to 90% or 95%. Group 6 (16-65 at risk) are not responding promptly to invitations, leaving spaces that GPs are filling with Group 7 (60-65).

There's a lot of focus on vaccine refusers - but it's not many weeks until the pressing problem will be vaccine can't be bothereds. People without objections but no desire either. Millions of doses ready and waiting to go into arms, but 18-50 year olds not responding to invites. It hits suddenly - everyone can infill capacity to 100% with eager 18-30 year olds, then overnight you discover you only have can't be bothereds remaining.
I don't know if that's entirely the case. The online system where you could book without a letter jumped from 5 to 7 because it couldn't handle 6. Which left group 6 just waiting for a letter from GPs who are trying to figure out which of their patients need one. It just seems to have become a bit of a nightmare to administer.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:10 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:03 pm
I know a Group 6 who got an appointment via the national hub system rather than from the GP.

Worth everybody trying the link. It's going to say no. But maybe some medical thing or just a clerical error? You don't need your NHS number but worth getting it handy for when your time comes in a few weeks.

https://www.nhs.uk/book-a-coronavirus-v ... nhs-number
Now open for anyone 56 and over.
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lpm
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:54 pm

The numbers don't add up.

We are in the 3rd week running of low supply. The total 1st doses done vs the estimated size of Groups 5, 6 and 7 means there's loads left to do of 6 and 7.

Calling group 8 (56 to 60), forward for appointments can only mean very low early responses to the 6 and 7 invites. Huge numbers of can't be bothereds and get round to it laters.

The only other explanation I have is that Group 6, vulnerables, was significantly overestimated in size.

Of course, inviting 56 yr olds to make appointments now might mean they get a date the week after next, but even so.

Group 8 is relatively small. It implies Group 9, 50-55, will be invited forward one week from today.
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OffTheRock
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by OffTheRock » Sat Mar 06, 2021 1:18 am

All the group 6 people I know are still in the process of booking them. The hub site allowed group 6 from yesterday, but was allowing 7 before that. I don't know how many people that were trying to book earlier in the week are aware they now can. I suspect the number in group 6 is currently smaller because they haven't identified them all yet. Some will be easy to identify from a patient records search, others, particularly asthmatics are going to involve GP staff going through individual staff records to work out who qualifies and who doesn't. JCVI could probably have given them a bit of a hand with a more search friendly criteria here. I don't think a few extra asthmatics getting a jab would have been the end of the world given the speed of the rollout so far.

The poor woman on the phone was sounding quite stressed when I phoned to ask about a post asthma attack review earlier in the week.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Millennie Al » Sat Mar 06, 2021 2:53 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:45 am
Also young people are protected from symptoms but not transmission, so the effects of partying then going to school/work/home are more severe than a couple of widows meeting for scones.
If children are forced to go to school, it's hard to criticise them from then socialising outside school - especially when it's with the same people. The virus does not care what the purpose of the meeting is.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by discovolante » Sat Mar 06, 2021 8:43 am

NHS Scotland are just giving people a date and a time for the jab and providing an option to rebook if it isn't suitable. At least that's how I got my appointment next week.

I suppose doing that leads to the risk of more missed appointments that could have gone to someone else, but on the other hand I'm assuming the appointments are at a high enough volume that it doesn't make a huge amount of difference. I'm assuming. And they will onoy get a phone call if an appointment needs to be changed (or you can register and do it online). So on the face of it it seems a better way of doing things, but we'll see I suppose.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Trinucleus » Sat Mar 06, 2021 9:58 am

My healthy 36 year old son has just been vaccinated - a friend works in one of the centres, and they're told that if there are going to be doses left at the end of the day, anyone who can get there before closing time can have a jab, so they phone round their mates.

My son is never happier than when picking up yellow sticker bargains in the supermarket, so it's entirely appropriate that he got a yellow sticker Covid jab.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Fishnut » Sat Mar 06, 2021 10:33 am

I got jabbed yesterday. I'm still on the doctor's records as a carer for my mum from when she had cancer. I did worry about queue-jumping but my area has had one of the highest uptakes in the country, well over 90% of 65+ have been vaccinated and they're clearly storming through the other groups. As my neighbours are at very high risk and I do help them out a fair amount I decided to get it.

There was a queue to get in but it was all very well organised and I don't feel like I've taken someone else's spot - they had at least 3 rooms on the go and I was in there for maybe 3 minutes, most of which was checking I wasn't sick before they vaccinated me.

I had a bit of a headache last night and woke with it this morning, plus really bad nausea. My arm aches, worse than with the flu vaccination, but it's barrable. I took some paracetamol for the headache which seems to have helped but the nausea doesn't seem to want to budge yet.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Fishnut » Sat Mar 06, 2021 5:24 pm

I've felt really sh.t all day. The nausea is low-grade but won't go away. Every time I think about eating finally the thought turns my stomach. And I've been feeling achy and now very cold and shivery - it's getting all rather 'flu-like. I figure it just means the vaccine is doing it's stuff so I'm not complaining or trying to put anyone off. More just documenting - everyone else seems to have had such an easy ride comparatively! :(

I am curious though - does anyone know if the reaction is consistent over the two vaccines - if I'm bad this time will I be bad next time? And should I do one of those yellow card things? Or is that only for weird reactions? (everything I've had so far seems pretty common).
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Sat Mar 06, 2021 6:37 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 5:24 pm
I've felt really sh.t all day. The nausea is low-grade but won't go away. Every time I think about eating finally the thought turns my stomach. And I've been feeling achy and now very cold and shivery - it's getting all rather 'flu-like. I figure it just means the vaccine is doing it's stuff so I'm not complaining or trying to put anyone off. More just documenting - everyone else seems to have had such an easy ride comparatively! :(

I am curious though - does anyone know if the reaction is consistent over the two vaccines - if I'm bad this time will I be bad next time? And should I do one of those yellow card things? Or is that only for weird reactions? (everything I've had so far seems pretty common).
Which jab did you get?
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Fishnut » Sat Mar 06, 2021 6:40 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 6:37 pm
Fishnut wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 5:24 pm
I've felt really sh.t all day. The nausea is low-grade but won't go away. Every time I think about eating finally the thought turns my stomach. And I've been feeling achy and now very cold and shivery - it's getting all rather 'flu-like. I figure it just means the vaccine is doing it's stuff so I'm not complaining or trying to put anyone off. More just documenting - everyone else seems to have had such an easy ride comparatively! :(

I am curious though - does anyone know if the reaction is consistent over the two vaccines - if I'm bad this time will I be bad next time? And should I do one of those yellow card things? Or is that only for weird reactions? (everything I've had so far seems pretty common).
Which jab did you get?
AstraZeneca
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Grumble » Sat Mar 06, 2021 6:50 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 5:24 pm
And should I do one of those yellow card things? Or is that only for weird reactions? (everything I've had so far seems pretty common).
If no-one with common reactions logs them then how will we know how common they are?
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Fishnut » Sat Mar 06, 2021 8:09 pm

Grumble wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 6:50 pm
Fishnut wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 5:24 pm
And should I do one of those yellow card things? Or is that only for weird reactions? (everything I've had so far seems pretty common).
If no-one with common reactions logs them then how will we know how common they are?
Good point. I'll report once I'm feeling better. Right now I'm just so f.cking cold. I've got so many layers on I should be sweating buckets but instead I'm still only just not shivering. And I ache all over. And I still feel nauseous. Still totally worth it though! I just keep imagining it's my immune system making really good antibodies.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by discovolante » Sat Mar 06, 2021 8:21 pm

I do hope you get better soon Fishnut but I've got to say, I'm not really looking forward to next weekend now :P
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Fishnut » Sat Mar 06, 2021 8:30 pm

discovolante wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 8:21 pm
I do hope you get better soon Fishnut but I've got to say, I'm not really looking forward to next weekend now :P
Neither is my sister who's got hers booked for a week today :(

Hopefully I'm just an extreme outlier. I've been binge-watching Agents of Shield and I'm trying to think of it as terrigenesis turning me into a superhero!
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by discovolante » Sat Mar 06, 2021 8:47 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 8:30 pm
discovolante wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 8:21 pm
I do hope you get better soon Fishnut but I've got to say, I'm not really looking forward to next weekend now :P
Neither is my sister who's got hers booked for a week today :(

Hopefully I'm just an extreme outlier. I've been binge-watching Agents of Shield and I'm trying to think of it as terrigenesis turning me into a superhero!
As long as it doesn't do any long lasting harm I can live with the prospect...bit nervous but well, short term pain for long term gain and all that.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by jdc » Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:26 am

Fishnut wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 6:40 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 6:37 pm
Fishnut wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 5:24 pm
I've felt really sh.t all day. The nausea is low-grade but won't go away. Every time I think about eating finally the thought turns my stomach. And I've been feeling achy and now very cold and shivery - it's getting all rather 'flu-like. I figure it just means the vaccine is doing it's stuff so I'm not complaining or trying to put anyone off. More just documenting - everyone else seems to have had such an easy ride comparatively! :(

I am curious though - does anyone know if the reaction is consistent over the two vaccines - if I'm bad this time will I be bad next time? And should I do one of those yellow card things? Or is that only for weird reactions? (everything I've had so far seems pretty common).
Which jab did you get?
AstraZeneca
I might have good news for you: https://www2.hse.ie/screening-and-vacci ... ccine.html
The common side effects after the AstraZeneca vaccine are more likely after the first dose of vaccine.

The common side effects after the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are more likely after the second dose of vaccine.
So hopefully that means jab2 is less likely to give you a hard time.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by gosling » Sun Mar 07, 2021 10:17 am

Anecdata: Pretty much everyone I know has felt flu-ey and rubbish for a couple of days after the AZ vaccine (first dose).

Will report back on second dose experiences as they start coming in.

I've said it elsewhere, but Novavax had very few reported side-effects in the trial. We all thought we'd been given the placebo. So hope that gets approval and rollout very soon.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Fishnut » Sun Mar 07, 2021 10:46 am

jdc wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:26 am
I might have good news for you: https://www2.hse.ie/screening-and-vacci ... ccine.html
The common side effects after the AstraZeneca vaccine are more likely after the first dose of vaccine.

The common side effects after the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are more likely after the second dose of vaccine.
So hopefully that means jab2 is less likely to give you a hard time.
Oh that is a relief! I would still get jab 2 even if it meant feeling as bad or worse as I did with jab 1 but I'd really rather not go through it again if possible! It was definitely the worst reaction I've had to a vaccine by far and wasn't at all fun.

Fortunately I'm feeling a lot better today. Still a bit delicate, but no more chills and I even managed to eat breakfast.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by FredM » Mon Mar 08, 2021 8:19 am

Just had my first results back from Virus Watch study - I had my first AZ jab 30/1. Results show no N antibodies, so unlikely to have had a previous infection, but presence of S antibodies, so first jab at least partially successful.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:49 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:08 am
Week to Sat 20 Feb: 2.5m 1st doses
Week to Sat 27 Feb: 2.5m 1st doses

So the lull, partly supply and partly stockpiling for 2nd doses (Pfizer probably), has cost us 1 million vs the FT chart. Improving from 3m to 4m per week would mean we catch up this deficit in a single week, if my calculations are correct.
Update as it was a bad week, the worst since mid Jan.

Week to Sat 20 Feb: 2.5m 1st doses (0.1m 2nd)
Week to Sat 27 Feb: 2.5m 1st doses (0.2m 2nd)
Week to Sat 6 Mar: 2.1m 1st doses (0.3m 2nd)

So now 2m behind the "constant 3m per week" chart.

Talk that it's going to be another bad week. Call it 2m. But then March ends with two huge weeks of possibly 5m per week. If we get 12m in three weeks that not only delivers 2nd doses and completes groups 1-9 but makes a big start on 40-49.

Depends on take up, but by my calculations we need to do another:

- 2.0m of Group 6 (at risk) at 90% initial take up
- 0.1 m of Group 7 (60-64) at 90% initial take up
- 2.0m of Group 8 (55-59) at 85% initial take up
- 2.4m of Group 9 (50-54) at 85% initial take up

Total 6.5m

I expect Group 9 to be invited for week commencing 15 March and mostly complete by 21 March, then straight on to 40-49 well before Easter.

For those waiting for 2nd doses, Pfizer is being accelerated. My father got his 2nd at 8 week anniversary. Current 2nd dose level exceeds that indicated by simply taking 12 week anniversary figures.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by headshot » Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:53 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:49 pm
For those waiting for 2nd doses, Pfizer is being accelerated. My father got his 2nd at 8 week anniversary. Current 2nd dose level exceeds that indicated by simply taking 12 week anniversary figures.
Anecdata: My dad is at week 8 of Pfizer shot 1 anniversary today, and hasn't heard a peep from the GP about his second dose.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:01 pm

Stock of Pfizer is being built up because it has to be reserved for 2nd doses.

Sensible GPs have realised there's no point in keeping it in freezers for a couple of weeks - might as well store it in human arms.

Particularly as there's a lull and jabbers are less busy, but are about to have a couple of incredibly busy weeks.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by tom p » Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:09 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 5:24 pm
I've felt really sh.t all day. The nausea is low-grade but won't go away. Every time I think about eating finally the thought turns my stomach. And I've been feeling achy and now very cold and shivery - it's getting all rather 'flu-like. I figure it just means the vaccine is doing it's stuff so I'm not complaining or trying to put anyone off. More just documenting - everyone else seems to have had such an easy ride comparatively! :(

I am curious though - does anyone know if the reaction is consistent over the two vaccines - if I'm bad this time will I be bad next time? And should I do one of those yellow card things? Or is that only for weird reactions? (everything I've had so far seems pretty common).
Yes, please do

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Fishnut » Mon Mar 08, 2021 3:20 pm

tom p wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:09 pm
Fishnut wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 5:24 pm
I've felt really sh.t all day. The nausea is low-grade but won't go away. Every time I think about eating finally the thought turns my stomach. And I've been feeling achy and now very cold and shivery - it's getting all rather 'flu-like. I figure it just means the vaccine is doing it's stuff so I'm not complaining or trying to put anyone off. More just documenting - everyone else seems to have had such an easy ride comparatively! :(

I am curious though - does anyone know if the reaction is consistent over the two vaccines - if I'm bad this time will I be bad next time? And should I do one of those yellow card things? Or is that only for weird reactions? (everything I've had so far seems pretty common).
Yes, please do
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Thanks for the reminder :)
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