Vaccine rollout in the UK

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lpm
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:24 pm

You are forgetting - yet again - the huge cliff face of danger from Covid 19.

Young people get ill rarely. Young people with a single dose get ill vanishingly rarely. An unlockdown 31 days after an invitation for a first dose is sufficient.

Second doses are only important for much older age groups, who of course were double dosed weeks earlier.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:44 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:24 pm
You are forgetting - yet again - the huge cliff face of danger from Covid 19.

Young people get ill rarely. Young people with a single dose get ill vanishingly rarely. An unlockdown 31 days after an invitation for a first dose is sufficient.

Second doses are only important for much older age groups, who of course were double dosed weeks earlier.
Whistling past the graveyard again.

From first dose to robust immunity after second dose is 10+ weeks as BOAF has indicated. This is plenty of time for Delta to wreak havoc.
Yes, younger people are at much lesser risk, but the amazing efficiency of Delta transmission greatly expands the number of people infected
so even the small percentage of people with severe outcomes works out in absolute numbers to many sick people in our overcrowded hospitals.

The huge wave of infection then surges onto ranks of older vaccinated people and sickens them. People that were shielding for 18 months are now infected when they go to the market or for a walk in the park.
I can’t imagine how hard it must be now for anyone who is old and vulnerable, or young with an underlying medical condition, to think about going outside as case numbers run rampant.

My dad didn’t go to the pub for a pint. He didn’t watch a film in the cinema, go to a gym or a football match. Nor a plane for a trip abroad. He didn’t see friends, go on public transport, go to restaurants or even regularly see us, his family.

When we did meet he still largely stayed outside, with a mask on, cautious and aware. Still keeping his distance. All he did was go to the shops to buy food and attend his medical appointments.

That was enough to kill him.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by headshot » Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:49 pm

People that were shielding for 18 months are now infected when they go…for a walk in the park.
Evidence, or STFU.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:50 pm

headshot wrote:
Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:49 pm
People that were shielding for 18 months are now infected when they go…for a walk in the park.
Evidence, or STFU.
Read the article.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:58 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:24 pm
You are forgetting - yet again - the huge cliff face of danger from Covid 19.


No I'm not.

There are good health public health reasons not to allow out-of-control cases to run through a partially-vaccinated population: that's how you get the evolution of resistant variants.

On top of which, even without needing hospitalisation, covid is pretty horrible, and young people still get long-term problems. The biggest long-term issues from the pandemic will be people infected in their twenties and thirties with lifelong breathing problems, fatigue, etc.

It seems that the young, having disproportionately spent the pandemic in "key worker" roles keeping shelves stacked and vans driven and kitchens staffed are now being given no choice about exposure to the risk of illness and long-term organ damage and mental health issues. They mostly won't die or end up in the ICU, so who cares?

It sucks. A few more weeks and society could say that almost everyone was given a chance to be vaccinated (except actual kids, who are a different story). Instead, the UK is - as per usual - making decisions for its young people that coincidentally harm them while giving extra benefits to older people.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:58 pm

Don't be surprised if your booster shots get scrapped to save money ten years down the line is all I'm saying. Millennial-led austerity will be all about working-age people, the engines of the economy. Decrepit old boomers will be f.cked.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Aug 22, 2021 3:15 pm

And to be clear, that won't be a good thing. But in an England with a Brexit-trashed economy, it wouldn't take a genius populist to say, "We're the generation that carried the country through the first pandemic while being constantly shat on, and now we're stuck handling the unprecendentedly hot potato of fixing the climate crisis, while those responsible for both demand increasingly expensive handouts from the state." Probably with a side-order of scapegoating climate refugees and blaming the EU and Scotland.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Sun Aug 22, 2021 5:55 pm

This is so confused and back to front.

The problem with the original lockdown was it benefited the over 65s - retired pensioners - plus vulnerable younger people.

Yet the costs fell heavily on the young. They lost their university enjoyment, 20-somethings nights out and parties, and in-office training - with a high proportion furloughed and losing experience with a lifelong impact on future earnings.

It was an ethical problem, imposing huge costs on one generation to protect another.

Vaccines have ended the conundrum. The old are adequately protected. Young people, whose risk was hundreds or thousands times lower, are even safer with only one dose - tens of thousands, possibly a hundred thousand times lower risk of dying compared to an unvaccinated 90 year old.

There's no way we should lockdown to protect the young. That's insane.

The only question is if we should continue to damage the lives of the young in order to protect unvaccinated old people or vaccinated old people with their 1/10 lowered risk.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:06 pm

I agree with you both, but BOAF I don't think you should threaten to take away lpm's boosters. That is mean and elder abuse.

The old have been protected to some extent, but how many died locked away in tiny airless rooms, unable to see their loved ones?
Younger people have lost many opportunities that they can never make up, all to imperfectly protect their elders. Now we have a more virulent variant
that threatens the older vaccinated cohort as well as younger unvaccinated folk.

What we really need is a massive transfer of wealth from the older wealthier generations to the young in exchange for the opportunities they forwent to protect their elders.Not retribution but as a way forward so we can all share equally the burdens of these extraordinary times.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:53 pm

I agree that full lockdown would be overkill. But doing away with basic, easy things like masks and distancing happened way premature. As far as I'm aware most other places in Europe, with lower case numbers than the UK, are still keeping up with simple interventions to keep cases under control, and allow people to choose their own level of exposure risk while performing unavoidable daily tasks. Telling key workers they now have to let every Tom, Dick and Harry breathe in their face before they've had a chance to get vaccinated is clearly unfair, even if you think they are being silly to worry about their relatively low risk of serious complications.

And yes, I know the pandemic has sucked for everyone, but it's hard to see the current state of affairs in the UK as anything other than a f.ck-you to young people. It also removes one of the policy levers government would have to promote uptake in younger cohorts - assuming that a high level of vaccination in the population is desirable, most countries are trying to give young people immunity via vaccination, whereas the UK seems stuck on the 'herd immunity via infection' route. If government policy has such strong shades of anti-vax sentiment it's no surprise there's a degree of hesitancy.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Sun Aug 22, 2021 9:56 pm

I'm wondering if the idiot doom guy's posts have shifted the Overton Window on here.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Aug 22, 2021 11:53 pm

Lol. As you know, UK policy is quite different to other European countries with similar level of vaccine coverage and fewer cases. So unless you think the "idiot doom guy" is running major world economies that's a pretty stupid suggestion.

Do you really actually genuinely think the UK is suddenly getting it right and the rest of Europe is being overly cautious? Because for most of the pandemic it's been the UK being obviously reckless while those other places were more sensible.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Millennie Al » Mon Aug 23, 2021 1:28 am

Herainestold wrote:
Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:50 pm
headshot wrote:
Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:49 pm
People that were shielding for 18 months are now infected when they go…for a walk in the park.
Evidence, or STFU.
Read the article.
The article, as you yourself quoted, says:
All he did was go to the shops to buy food and attend his medical appointments.
so no walks in the park.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Millennie Al » Mon Aug 23, 2021 1:37 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Aug 22, 2021 1:00 pm
And obviously, not everybody can actually be vaccinated during the first week, after the invitations went out, due to limited slots and other commitments. This is especially important in densely populated areas, where as far as I can tell slots (at least the convenient ones) got booked up very quickly.
Ok. So have a look at the graphs in https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55274833 and particularly the one "Seven day average of doses given". Why were there >400,000 1st doses plus >100,000 2nd doses being given at the and of April, but now we're down to 163,371 and 41,365? Is it lack of vaccine supply? Or the younger people are so infirm they cannot travel to be vaccinated? Of they have something better to do? Or they're all vaccinated so there's nobody left to vaccinate? From the next graph, it seems to me that all age groups had a rapid uptake initially which then levelled off, but the levelling off takes place at a lower level for each younger age group apart from 18-24 which has got past the 25-29.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Mon Aug 23, 2021 1:41 am

Millennie Al wrote:
Mon Aug 23, 2021 1:28 am
Herainestold wrote:
Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:50 pm
headshot wrote:
Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:49 pm


Evidence, or STFU.
Read the article.
The article, as you yourself quoted, says:
All he did was go to the shops to buy food and attend his medical appointments.
so no walks in the park.
I stand correctred.

Although I will point out as he stayed outside, he could have gone for a walk in the park.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by headshot » Mon Aug 23, 2021 8:10 am

By that logic he could have contracted it when he f.cked the Covid-ridden pangolin he discovered in a genie’s lamp, but didn’t mention in the article.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon Aug 23, 2021 9:04 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Aug 22, 2021 11:53 pm
Lol. As you know, UK policy is quite different to other European countries with similar level of vaccine coverage and fewer cases. So unless you think the "idiot doom guy" is running major world economies that's a pretty stupid suggestion.

Do you really actually genuinely think the UK is suddenly getting it right and the rest of Europe is being overly cautious? Because for most of the pandemic it's been the UK being obviously reckless while those other places were more sensible.
You make it sound like the UK is a plague island of death and despair. OK, despair, fair enough. But not death.

The UK death rate is lower than Spain and Greece. It's similar to France and Portugal. Admittedly it's higher than Italy, our usual partner in incompetence.

The UK is showing - for now - you can end all lockdown constraints on nightlife and businesses, and still get away with it. France doesn't look any better despite its pass sanitaires for bars and mask mandates. Spain isn't out performing despite its masks and restrictions on numbers in nightclubs. Portugal is keeping nightclubs closed, Greece has vaccine passports for bars and restaurants. It's not at all clear that these cautious approaches deliver significant benefits for vaccinated countries, compared to the obvious costs on employment and enjoyment.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Aug 23, 2021 9:08 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Aug 23, 2021 9:04 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Aug 22, 2021 11:53 pm
Lol. As you know, UK policy is quite different to other European countries with similar level of vaccine coverage and fewer cases. So unless you think the "idiot doom guy" is running major world economies that's a pretty stupid suggestion.

Do you really actually genuinely think the UK is suddenly getting it right and the rest of Europe is being overly cautious? Because for most of the pandemic it's been the UK being obviously reckless while those other places were more sensible.
You make it sound like the UK is a plague island of death and despair. OK, despair, fair enough. But not death.

The UK death rate is lower than Spain and Greece. It's similar to France and Portugal. Admittedly it's higher than Italy, our usual partner in incompetence.

The UK is showing - for now - you can end all lockdown constraints on nightlife and businesses, and still get away with it. France doesn't look any better despite its pass sanitaires for bars and mask mandates. Spain isn't out performing despite its masks and restrictions on numbers in nightclubs. Portugal is keeping nightclubs closed, Greece has vaccine passports for bars and restaurants. It's not at all clear that these cautious approaches deliver significant benefits for vaccinated countries, compared to the obvious costs on employment and enjoyment.
Its possible that the overall seasonal effects mean that during the summer different restrictions don't matter very much. They may matter more when people start spending a lot more time congregating in poorly ventilated rooms.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon Aug 23, 2021 9:24 am

England has had one of its wettest summers for years.

May was exceptionally wet and cold. June was normal in northern England but southern England was rainier than normal. July was very wet for the first half, then had a heatwave in the second half. August so far has been mediocre, with no extended period of sunny days.

In Covid terms, we've had a particularly unhelpful summer. It's not been the year for pavement cafés and the "staycations" to the English beaches have needed rainy day activities alongside the building of sand castles. This implies a lower differential between now and the autumn weather.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Aug 23, 2021 9:43 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Aug 23, 2021 9:24 am
England has had one of its wettest summers for years.

May was exceptionally wet and cold. June was normal in northern England but southern England was rainier than normal. July was very wet for the first half, then had a heatwave in the second half. August so far has been mediocre, with no extended period of sunny days.

In Covid terms, we've had a particularly unhelpful summer. It's not been the year for pavement cafés and the "staycations" to the English beaches have needed rainy day activities alongside the building of sand castles. This implies a lower differential between now and the autumn weather.
Perhaps. We'll just have to see.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by bob sterman » Mon Aug 23, 2021 9:49 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Aug 23, 2021 9:24 am
England has had one of its wettest summers for years.

May was exceptionally wet and cold. June was normal in northern England but southern England was rainier than normal. July was very wet for the first half, then had a heatwave in the second half. August so far has been mediocre, with no extended period of sunny days.

In Covid terms, we've had a particularly unhelpful summer. It's not been the year for pavement cafés and the "staycations" to the English beaches have needed rainy day activities alongside the building of sand castles. This implies a lower differential between now and the autumn weather.
cherries.jpg
cherries.jpg (53.54 KiB) Viewed 156 times
2021 had the joint fifth warmest July on record for the UK in a series from 1884. Mean maximum temperatures were up to 3°C above normal in western Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The mean UK temperature for June was 14.2 °C, which is 1.2 °C above the 1981-2010 long-term average. Mean maximum temperatures were up to 2°C above normal in some northern areas.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/c ... ries/index

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:19 am

Average temperature isn't what matters for outdoor life. It's rain that drives people indoors.

From your link:

July:
The first twelve days of July were mostly unsettled, with spells of heavy rain and showers, especially over England... Many parts of England and parts of the Scottish Highlands had a wet month, with double the average rainfall amount in numerous places, but Northern Ireland, south-west Scotland and the far north of Scotland had a dry month.
June:
Most areas from Wales and the Midlands northwards had a dry month, with less than a third of the usual rainfall in some areas, but south-east England was very wet with more than double the average rainfall for some locations.
May:
Nearly all areas had a wet month, with only parts of western Scotland having near or below average rainfall, and many places from eastern Scotland to Wales and south-west England had well over double their usual May rainfall, making it provisionally the UK’s fourth wettest May in a series from 1862, with 171% of average.
It's been really unlucky. This could have been the year that permanently reduced demand for flights to Med beaches and replaced them with a week in the sun in Dorset. But instead it's been a reminder of why English beach holidays are a bit crap.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:28 am

Yes, from what I've heard there have been weeks of solid rain, so at times if people were planning to socialise they'd do it indoors, but at others it's been nice enough for parks and pub gardens and beaches.

So, a bit better than winter, but perhaps not as different as possible.

I expect we'll get an inkling when schools and unis go back, and another when the weather gets really nasty.

It's good that covid patients aren't dying in huge numbers or gumming up hospitals, of course. But I'm still concerned about both long-term damage from infections and the risk from new variants, both of which mean that running hot is a bad move.

The UK already killed loads of people last year with its alpha variant. Imagine how annoyed we'll all be if they cook up something vaccine-defeating.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by bob sterman » Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:45 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:19 am
Average temperature isn't what matters for outdoor life. It's rain that drives people indoors.

From your link:

July:
The first twelve days of July were mostly unsettled, with spells of heavy rain and showers, especially over England... Many parts of England and parts of the Scottish Highlands had a wet month, with double the average rainfall amount in numerous places, but Northern Ireland, south-west Scotland and the far north of Scotland had a dry month.
June:
Most areas from Wales and the Midlands northwards had a dry month, with less than a third of the usual rainfall in some areas, but south-east England was very wet with more than double the average rainfall for some locations.
May:
Nearly all areas had a wet month, with only parts of western Scotland having near or below average rainfall, and many places from eastern Scotland to Wales and south-west England had well over double their usual May rainfall, making it provisionally the UK’s fourth wettest May in a series from 1862, with 171% of average.
It's been really unlucky. This could have been the year that permanently reduced demand for flights to Med beaches and replaced them with a week in the sun in Dorset. But instead it's been a reminder of why English beach holidays are a bit crap.
Let's keep picking those cherries...
All areas were drier and much warmer by mid-month, with temperatures exceeding 30°C on several days in some areas, and unbroken sunshine for many.
Hmmm - mid-month? E.g around July 19th? Couldn't have asked for better weather for "Freedom Day".

London highs

July 19th 30°C - Sunny
July 20th 31°C - Sunny
July 21st 30°C - Sunny
July 22nd 29°C - Sunny
July 23rd 24°C - Partly Sunny
July 24th 24°C - Partly Sunny
July 25th 21°C (and finally a little rain in the evening to give COVID a fighting chance in the face of all this sunshine)

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:56 am

Obviously there's some lovely sunny days in every British summer. Even Scotland can have a hour or two of sunshine in July or August. You'd need a volcanic eruption to have a year without a summer.

But the vision of continental style pavement cafés and evening strolls along the Ramblas has taken an unfortunate knock. Sheltering under white canopies in a pub garden isn't quite the same.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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