Vaccine rollout in the UK

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Brightonian
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Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Brightonian » Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:49 am

So, they're going to start giving people their jabs from today, but obviously it'll take quite a while to get round to the majority of people. I'm in Group 7 (60+, no underlying health conditions) per this so I'm guessing it'll be maybe April to July when I get mine.


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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by headshot » Tue Dec 08, 2020 9:13 am

What are the underlying health conditions? Are these the same people who received letters to shield in lockdown?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Tue Dec 08, 2020 9:34 am

Still no news about who the second one will be.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by sTeamTraen » Tue Dec 08, 2020 9:36 am

It occurs to me that if the first few hundred people to get the vaccine are over 90, several will be dead fairly soon just due to normal attrition in that age group. I'm not sure that "6 people die within a week of getting the COVID-19 vaccine" is a headline we want to see. :shock:
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by discovolante » Tue Dec 08, 2020 9:46 am

TBH I'm more worried about people complaining that people who are more likely to die soon anyway shouldn't be getting prioritised for the vaccine.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Martin Y » Tue Dec 08, 2020 9:51 am

discovolante wrote:
Tue Dec 08, 2020 9:46 am
TBH I'm more worried about people complaining that people who are more likely to die soon anyway shouldn't be getting prioritised for the vaccine.
I'm waiting for the articles complaining that vaccination isn't noticeably bringing down new cases because we're only vaccinating people who're sheltering anyway instead of people who're out in the community spreading the virus.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Tue Dec 08, 2020 9:58 am

Martin Y wrote:
Tue Dec 08, 2020 9:51 am
discovolante wrote:
Tue Dec 08, 2020 9:46 am
TBH I'm more worried about people complaining that people who are more likely to die soon anyway shouldn't be getting prioritised for the vaccine.
I'm waiting for the articles complaining that vaccination isn't noticeably bringing down new cases because we're only vaccinating people who're sheltering anyway instead of people who're out in the community spreading the virus.
Or alternatively, articles along the lines of "I violated the restrictions and caught covid/gave covid to my relatives I thought the vaccine was supposed to prevent this"
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Brightonian » Tue Dec 08, 2020 10:24 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Tue Dec 08, 2020 9:36 am
It occurs to me that if the first few hundred people to get the vaccine are over 90, several will be dead fairly soon just due to normal attrition in that age group. I'm not sure that "6 people die within a week of getting the COVID-19 vaccine" is a headline we want to see. :shock:
I've just put your point to my father who's replied "great excuse if the vaccine's dodgy, they can say 'no, it's not the vaccine, they just died of old age!'" (This was tongue in cheek, he's not anti-vax.)

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by PeteB » Tue Dec 08, 2020 10:33 am

I suspect the average 90 year old has a longer life expectancy than most people would think
It occurred to me that as 75% of deaths have occurred in the over 75s, once this group is vaccinated, the death rate will be considerably reduced - although that could be a double edged sword, if only 'younger' people are dying from it, the average years life lost might be a lot higher

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by PeteB » Tue Dec 08, 2020 10:36 am

From @actuary by day
Average life expectancy at 90 is 4 years for men and 5 years for women.

In this context though, what’s more important is that 1-in-6 will die in the next year. So
@sTeamTraen
is correct that significant numbers will die over the winter and there is a risk of misreporting.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Tue Dec 08, 2020 11:17 am

shpalman wrote:
Tue Dec 08, 2020 9:34 am
Still no news about who the second one will be.
Turns out it's William Shakespeare

So that's two done.

Could probably do another couple this afternoon.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Tue Dec 08, 2020 11:31 am

I've lost track of the rules/protocol/approval around how many times a box of 975 can be opened and how long it can be stored for.

For the second dose three weeks from now, can they use the other half* of the box they've just opened or do they need another box?
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Tue Dec 08, 2020 12:24 pm

already done four people

Someone must have decided not to go on lunch break yet.

ETA: “I am just so lucky. Sometimes I get hopelessly lost, even just on my way home from the shops, but now I’ve been microchipped Bill Gates will always know where I am.”

I should have known this was a joke.

No way have they already done four people.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Gfamily » Tue Dec 08, 2020 1:17 pm

A relative who is a GP is getting their first vaccination tomorrow. Has already tested positive for Covid but is getting vaccinated anyway to be of more use in their practice.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by individualmember » Tue Dec 08, 2020 1:25 pm

headshot wrote:
Tue Dec 08, 2020 9:13 am
What are the underlying health conditions? Are these the same people who received letters to shield in lockdown?
My guess is that. I’m guessing that being in the group that got that letter early on means that my underlying health condition (compromised immune system due to the medication, rather than the actual condition, which isn’t life threatening) puts me in the category 6 rather than category 8 of this https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... ember-2020

ETA when I say ‘guess’, I’m pretty confident that my reading of the situation is right. Just not certain.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Fishnut » Tue Dec 08, 2020 1:35 pm

I was listening to More or Less the other day, their episode Vaccines: How Safe and Who Gets It? and one thing that struck me was that the entire discussion was framed as reducing mortality, without any mention at all about morbidity. I'm totally on board with wanting to reduce the deaths from covid but I am a bit concerned that by focusing exclusively on mortality, we are ignoring the potential long-term health impacts that getting and recovering from covid can cause. Am I missing something?

Also, I see that people in care homes are top priority but is there anything about those receiving care in the community? They often have a lot of carers/nurses a day, and often lots of different ones rather than the same ones which would (I'm guessing) make them more vulnerable to being exposed.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by sTeamTraen » Tue Dec 08, 2020 1:52 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Tue Dec 08, 2020 1:35 pm
I was listening to More or Less the other day, their episode Vaccines: How Safe and Who Gets It? and one thing that struck me was that the entire discussion was framed as reducing mortality, without any mention at all about morbidity. I'm totally on board with wanting to reduce the deaths from covid but I am a bit concerned that by focusing exclusively on mortality, we are ignoring the potential long-term health impacts that getting and recovering from covid can cause. Am I missing something?
I presume that the vaccine will have a concomitant effect on morbidity. Different vaccines will have different curves for the relation between cases prevented, short-term symptoms prevented, hospitalisations prevented, ICU admissions prevented, deaths prevented, and long-term symptoms prevented, but presumably a vaccine with 95% efficacy and no severe cases (I guess that means ICU?) in the treatment group is likely to have a fairly positive effect across the board. I think it's unlikely that you would go from 400 deaths a day in the UK to 10 deaths but an extra 100 cases of major long-term complications.

Also, I don't know if we have decent data yet about what the medium-term effects are and, hence, what the long-term effects are likely to be. Long COVID stories get a certain amount of attention, but I have no idea how prevalent that is. And apparently if you lose you sense of smell/taste, it can take a while to come back, and when it does, certain things taste weird or very bad. But the fewer cases there are (cf my other questions about the extent to which a vaccine reduces transmission), the less morbidity there is as well.

(Lung damage tends to be irreversible, though --- #1 son is shielding like a 70-year-old because sport is a big part of his life and although his chances of dying would be negligible, he doesn't want to risk any lingering effects.)
Fishnut wrote:
Tue Dec 08, 2020 1:35 pm
Also, I see that people in care homes are top priority but is there anything about those receiving care in the community? They often have a lot of carers/nurses a day, and often lots of different ones rather than the same ones which would (I'm guessing) make them more vulnerable to being exposed.
During the early stages, they will presumably give priority to interventions that get the most statistical bang for the buck, which means people who are (either vulnerable or essential) and can't avoid contact with (multiple) others. You can vaccinate all of the residents of a care home in a couple of hours, and that's basically local herd immunity. Ditto all of the workers in a hospital. It's inherent to the notion of "priority" that you have to take a probabilistic approach, I think.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Tue Dec 08, 2020 1:59 pm

ok so that's three

Although her story won't be in the papers because as you'll see from the replies, she told the Telegraph to f.ck off.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by PeteB » Tue Dec 08, 2020 2:06 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Tue Dec 08, 2020 1:35 pm
I was listening to More or Less the other day, their episode Vaccines: How Safe and Who Gets It? and one thing that struck me was that the entire discussion was framed as reducing mortality, ..
Just listened to it - it was interesting that 99% of deaths so far are in the 'priority' list but that list made up around 50% of the population.

Seemed fair enough, but, yes, ignores Long Covid. Also wondered how much it would bring R down, I guess even with that 50% that isn't enough to get you to herd immunity

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by discovolante » Tue Dec 08, 2020 2:34 pm

I had been wondering about long covid too. Tbh as far as I personally am concerned that's my main worry. Obviously I really dont want to end up in an ICU or die but (and I hope I dont regret saying this!) at the moment it's the potential long term impacts that concern me, more than the acute stuff.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Tue Dec 08, 2020 2:37 pm

Who is most likely to get long COVID?
The researchers discovered that older people are much more likely to get long COVID than younger people, although it does occur across all ages. Long COVID affects around 10% of 18-49 year olds who become unwell with COVID-19, rising to 22% of over 70s. Weight also plays a role, with people developing long COVID having a slightly higher average BMI than those with short COVID.

Although men are more likely to be admitted to hospital with COVID-19, women appear to be slightly more likely to suffer from long COVID than men (14.5% compared with 9.5%), but only in the younger age group.

The researchers also found that people with asthma were more likely to develop long COVID, although there were no clear links to any other underlying health conditions.

Importantly, the more symptoms a person had in the first week, the more likely they were to go on to develop long COVID.
So it's not obvious what you'd do with the vaccine to target people at risk of long covid rather than death (not until they already get covid anyway).
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Lincoln has done a person, they've started a bit late though, I wonder if they'll have time to do a second one today. That's four in total now, right?
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Tue Dec 08, 2020 5:10 pm

The rollout strategy is obviously based more on whoever is already in the hospital (or who will visit as an out-patient) where the vaccines are. But it might be reasonable to assume that someone who is in hospital, or visiting as an out-patient, is at more risk (both of contracting covid, and of suffering complications) than someone who is at home shielding.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by nezumi » Tue Dec 08, 2020 5:18 pm

Medi, this is exactly why I'm shielding all the way through to getting the jab. My lungs are still damaged from the 2014-15 flu. I don't have enough spare to risk it.

I don't begrudge anyone else the jab, but I'm disappointed that younger but vulnerable people like myself will have to wait. Even I am very sick of being stuck in all the time.
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