Vaccine rollout in the UK

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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:41 pm

molto tricky

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Ladysavage » Sat May 08, 2021 4:00 pm

Got my letter today. Never have I been excited to see mail in that shade of blue before. I will be vaccinated/chipped/a zombie in 1 week and 1 hour from now

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Woodchopper » Mon May 10, 2021 6:52 pm

COVID-19 vaccines: further evidence of success

New Public Health England (PHE) analysis shows for the first time that individuals who receive a single dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine have approximately 80% lower risk of death with COVID-19 compared with unvaccinated individuals.

The report also shows protection against death from the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine rises from approximately 80% after one dose to 97% after 2 doses.

Separate new PHE analysis also confirms the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is highly effective in reducing the risk of hospitalisation, especially in older ages.

In one paper published today, PHE looked at the number of new symptomatic polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive cases between December and April, and those who subsequently died within 28 days of their positive test and compared them according to vaccination status.

This showed that COVID-19 cases vaccinated with a single dose of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or the AstraZeneca vaccines had similar levels of protection against mortality after a single dose, at 44% and 55% respectively, compared with unvaccinated cases.

Combined with the protection vaccines offer against becoming a case in the first place, this is equivalent to approximately 80% protection against mortality in individuals vaccinated with a single dose of either vaccine.

For the first time, the latest analysis includes protection against mortality from the AstraZeneca vaccine, and additional protection from 2 doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.

The data shows that protection against mortality from the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is even higher – around 69% – for confirmed cases who had their second dose at least 7 days prior to their positive test.

When combined with the estimated protection against becoming a case, this is equivalent to an estimated 97% protection against mortality in individuals vaccinated with 2 doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.

A separate new PHE report also shows further evidence that the vaccine is highly effective in reducing the risk of hospitalisation, especially in older ages.

For the over 80s, it is estimated that 2 doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine reduces the risk of hospitalisation by 93%.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covi ... of-success

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Wed May 12, 2021 5:47 am

the UK has a stockpile of about 12 million doses

(Italy has a stockpile of about 2.5 million as of this morning).
molto tricky

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu May 13, 2021 9:18 am

I just got invited to book mine in the UK, with the earliest available slot this afternoon. (I'm 30 with no physical health problems)

I don't really want to fly to the UK and back twice, though, so I'll just have to wait till Septemberish and get I done here in Portugal.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Fri May 14, 2021 4:46 pm

2nd doses for the top 9 cohorts >50s brought forward from 12 weeks to 8 weeks.

I don't think this is going to work. Nearly all >50s are at the 8 week mark right now - so in theory this would mean nearly all remaining 2nd doses for >50s should be delivered today. I'm assuming that the capacity issues will mean bringing them forward by a couple of weeks, say to the 10 week mark.

I had AZ. Why would I want it at 8 weeks instead of 12? I ran out the house to get the first available appointment for the first dose, but shouldn't I linger for the second?
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Fri May 14, 2021 4:52 pm

And obviously accelerating 2nds will delay 1sts. 30-38 year olds are going to be left unvaccinated for at least an extra couple of weeks.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Fri May 14, 2021 4:54 pm

And this is because the new outbreaks are mainly among unvaccinated young people, not ~50 year olds who've only had one dose? What sense does that make?
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Fri May 14, 2021 5:26 pm

They're claiming it won't impact 1st doses for the young-uns, cos they'll get Pfizer/Moderna, while the 2nd doses are mostly AZ.

Which is true. But:

(a) why didn't they roll out quicker if they have all these stocks to spare?

(b) there's still the constraint of humans sticking needles into arms. Are there enough jabbers/locations/volunteers to do an absolutely massive 2 weeks?
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Gfamily » Fri May 14, 2021 5:55 pm

Well, my 2nd jab (timed for 11 weeks) was cancelled yesterday, but at least I could re-book for the same week.

It allowed me to re-schedule it to a Friday afternoon, so if I get a repeat of the 'brain fog' side effect at least it won't be when I'm supposed to be working.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by mediocrity511 » Fri May 14, 2021 6:41 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri May 14, 2021 5:26 pm
They're claiming it won't impact 1st doses for the young-uns, cos they'll get Pfizer/Moderna, while the 2nd doses are mostly AZ.

Which is true. But:

(a) why didn't they roll out quicker if they have all these stocks to spare?

(b) there's still the constraint of humans sticking needles into arms. Are there enough jabbers/locations/volunteers to do an absolutely massive 2 weeks?
My understanding is that a decent number of GPs have declined to participate in vaccinating under 50 year olds, instead leaving that up to the mass vaccination centres and pharmacies. So lots of GP led vaccine centres aren't doing younger people anyway, so are probably slowly winding down. If they can carry on at mass capacity for a bit then that might do it.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Sat May 15, 2021 8:17 am

I'm still puzzled by the 12 week to 8 week thing for over 50s.

And puzzled by why the media isn't puzzled.

8 weeks ago the 55-59 cohort was basically done and the 50-54 group was underway. There were lags and earlies of course but generally speaking a 55 year old, for example, will have been 1st dosed 7 or 8 or 9 weeks ago.

So the 8 week date is literally now.

Meanwhile, a 65 year old will have been 1st dosed about 10 or 11 weeks ago. They will already have an appointment booked for this week - the data shows people are generally averaging the 11 week mark.

Obviously all the 10 and 11 weekers can't get an 8 week target.

And obviously the NHS can't instantly accelerate every >50 into the coming week or even the next. Teams need to be staffed, extra appointments made.

Realistically, all this announcement will mean is 50-55 getting 2nds at 10 weeks instead of 11.

Plus it was 95% AZ for these cohorts and we've all been thinking 12 weeks is better than 3 or 8 weeks anyway.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Sat May 15, 2021 8:50 am

Looking back, 7 weeks ago was when 1st doses for >50s was effectively complete (NI a bit earlier, Scotland a bit later). Our own TopBadger was an example of a 40 something who got jabbed 7 weeks ago.

There were stragglers, but stragglers always gonna straggle, they'll straggle for the 2nd as well in their straggly kind of way.

Looking at the historical numbers, the announcement effectively claims around 5m to 6m second doses will get moved earlier into the coming week. Not remotely plausible. Moving forward seconds from averaging 11 weeks to 10 weeks is probably achievable.

But wouldn't it make more sense to send squadrons of vaccinators flying off to Bolton etc? In two or three weeks time, we might be very glad to have a million extra 18-40s first dosed in areas where the NHS is coming under stress.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Sat May 15, 2021 9:01 am

lpm wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 8:50 am
Looking back, 7 weeks ago was when 1st doses for >50s was effectively complete (NI a bit earlier, Scotland a bit later). Our own TopBadger was an example of a 40 something who got jabbed 7 weeks ago.

There were stragglers, but stragglers always gonna straggle, they'll straggle for the 2nd as well in their straggly kind of way.

Looking at the historical numbers, the announcement effectively claims around 5m to 6m second doses will get moved earlier into the coming week. Not remotely plausible. Moving forward seconds from averaging 11 weeks to 10 weeks is probably achievable.

But wouldn't it make more sense to send squadrons of vaccinators flying off to Bolton etc? In two or three weeks time, we might be very glad to have a million extra 18-40s first dosed in areas where the NHS is coming under stress.
[Boris Johnson] announced that the army would be deployed to two variant hotspots – Bolton and Blackburn with Darwen – to help with vaccinations
He also urged residents in those areas to “think twice” before taking advantages of the freedoms allowed again from Monday.
... councillor Andy Morgan, Bolton council’s cabinet member for adult social services, insisted the council had been given some “flexibility” to vaccinate younger people, and would be offering vaccines to all over-18s in the three worst-affected wards from Saturday.

Despite the councillor’s confidence, local politicians have no jurisdiction over vaccination centres. Bolton’s clinical commissioning group runs the district’s eight sites and it is not clear which guidance they will follow. A spokeswoman for Bolton clinical commissioning group suggested there would be no immediate offer of vaccinations to over-18s.
report of hint that something will be imminent any time now
Harrison said it would be foolish to [allow further unlocking] without first boosting vaccination rates in areas of high transmission
Fixed that for him.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Beaker » Sat May 15, 2021 3:41 pm

Here in Bolton the message is “we have 4000 vaccines we need to clear out today, come and get one”

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Ladysavage » Sat May 15, 2021 5:28 pm

The Savages are now vaccinated! I got the AZ one, administered by an optometrist called Douglas who looked about 12

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Grumble » Sat May 15, 2021 7:27 pm

Beaker wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 3:41 pm
Here in Bolton the message is “we have 4000 vaccines we need to clear out today, come and get one”
I guess the surge is happening then!
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by headshot » Sun May 16, 2021 11:18 am

Opening up to anyone 35 and this week:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57133372

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Sun May 16, 2021 11:25 am

shpalman wrote:
Wed May 12, 2021 5:47 am
the UK has a stockpile of about 12 million doses

(Italy has a stockpile of about 2.5 million as of this morning).
more on how that's calculated

Although if I do it, I note that Scotland currently has had 5,333,050 "doses allocated" even if only 4,837,850 have been "delivered" so far, while 4,602,858 have been given.

So Scotland has used ~95% of the doses "delivered" to it but that corresponds to ~86% of its total "allocation" so far. It's vaccinating about 40,000 a day so its deliveries give it about a week's supply but its allocation is about 12 days more. Italy's average is at about 90% and its stockpile is about 3 million i.e. similarly not quite enough for a week.

If you scale that up to the whole of the UK, such that the 56,018,988 doses given is ~86% of what we imagine the total stock is, the total stock would be about 65 million i.e. there's "only" a stockpile of 9 million in the whole UK.

Ok you still manage to have ~3 times the stockpile of a similarly-sized EU country, rather than 4 times. And in general, you've had a number of doses delivered which is ~1 for every member of the population, whereas the EU is generally at ~0.5.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by jimbob » Sun May 16, 2021 11:46 am

This is what the case numbers (not rates) by age look like for England
Top Left (mostly retired) Top Right (Mostly working age)

Bottom Left (all ages by decade) Bottom Right (significantly in education or younger)
E1gXWEGXsAQwnAh.png
E1gXWEGXsAQwnAh.png (145.35 KiB) Viewed 113 times

Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... mographics
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by jimbob » Sun May 16, 2021 11:55 am

lpm wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 8:50 am
Looking back, 7 weeks ago was when 1st doses for >50s was effectively complete (NI a bit earlier, Scotland a bit later). Our own TopBadger was an example of a 40 something who got jabbed 7 weeks ago.

There were stragglers, but stragglers always gonna straggle, they'll straggle for the 2nd as well in their straggly kind of way.

Looking at the historical numbers, the announcement effectively claims around 5m to 6m second doses will get moved earlier into the coming week. Not remotely plausible. Moving forward seconds from averaging 11 weeks to 10 weeks is probably achievable.

But wouldn't it make more sense to send squadrons of vaccinators flying off to Bolton etc? In two or three weeks time, we might be very glad to have a million extra 18-40s first dosed in areas where the NHS is coming under stress.
Indeed. And a tightening up of restrictions - unpopular as it would be. Cases in Bolton are not good. CovidZoe says that Doncaster is also bad.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by jimbob » Sun May 16, 2021 12:15 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 11:55 am
lpm wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 8:50 am
Looking back, 7 weeks ago was when 1st doses for >50s was effectively complete (NI a bit earlier, Scotland a bit later). Our own TopBadger was an example of a 40 something who got jabbed 7 weeks ago.

There were stragglers, but stragglers always gonna straggle, they'll straggle for the 2nd as well in their straggly kind of way.

Looking at the historical numbers, the announcement effectively claims around 5m to 6m second doses will get moved earlier into the coming week. Not remotely plausible. Moving forward seconds from averaging 11 weeks to 10 weeks is probably achievable.

But wouldn't it make more sense to send squadrons of vaccinators flying off to Bolton etc? In two or three weeks time, we might be very glad to have a million extra 18-40s first dosed in areas where the NHS is coming under stress.
Indeed. And a tightening up of restrictions - unpopular as it would be. Cases in Bolton are not good. CovidZoe says that Doncaster is also bad.
And Bolton has over twice as many cases as Wales. It's *very* clumpy at the moment so surge vaccination makes sense to me.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by bob sterman » Sun May 16, 2021 12:51 pm

So on TV today Hancock emphasised the importance of vaccination by saying...
If you want to know why that’s important, the majority of people in hospital with coronavirus in Bolton this morning are eligible for the jab but haven’t had it yet – [that] is the strongest point of why it’s so important for everybody to come forward and get this jab
Now perhaps I'm just too cynical - but his choice of the present tense ("are eligible") caused me to raise an eyebrow.

Working backwards - with typical lags between infection, symptoms and hospitalisation - to prevent a hospitalisation in early/mid May - someone would need to have been vaccinated in mid-April.

And as there is typically a delay between becoming eligible to book a vaccine, and the first available appointment, to prevent this hospitalisation in early/mid May the patient would probably have needed to become "eligible for the jab" in early April.

(Obviously - this isn't a comment on the effectiveness of the vaccines against the new variant - rather a comment on Hancock's implication that most hospitalised people might be somehow responsible for their unvaccinated status).

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by jimbob » Sun May 16, 2021 2:34 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 12:51 pm
So on TV today Hancock emphasised the importance of vaccination by saying...
If you want to know why that’s important, the majority of people in hospital with coronavirus in Bolton this morning are eligible for the jab but haven’t had it yet – [that] is the strongest point of why it’s so important for everybody to come forward and get this jab
Now perhaps I'm just too cynical - but his choice of the present tense ("are eligible") caused me to raise an eyebrow.

Working backwards - with typical lags between infection, symptoms and hospitalisation - to prevent a hospitalisation in early/mid May - someone would need to have been vaccinated in mid-April.

And as there is typically a delay between becoming eligible to book a vaccine, and the first available appointment, to prevent this hospitalisation in early/mid May the patient would probably have needed to become "eligible for the jab" in early April.

(Obviously - this isn't a comment on the effectiveness of the vaccines against the new variant - rather a comment on Hancock's implication that most hospitalised people might be somehow responsible for their unvaccinated status).
It's also data that is not available to the public at that level of granularity as far as I can see. I can see data for the North West which breaks it down into 0-5, 6-17, 18-64... but that's not very useful.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s ... -activity/
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 2:34 pm
bob sterman wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 12:51 pm
So on TV today Hancock emphasised the importance of vaccination by saying...
If you want to know why that’s important, the majority of people in hospital with coronavirus in Bolton this morning are eligible for the jab but haven’t had it yet – [that] is the strongest point of why it’s so important for everybody to come forward and get this jab
Now perhaps I'm just too cynical - but his choice of the present tense ("are eligible") caused me to raise an eyebrow.

Working backwards - with typical lags between infection, symptoms and hospitalisation - to prevent a hospitalisation in early/mid May - someone would need to have been vaccinated in mid-April.

And as there is typically a delay between becoming eligible to book a vaccine, and the first available appointment, to prevent this hospitalisation in early/mid May the patient would probably have needed to become "eligible for the jab" in early April.

(Obviously - this isn't a comment on the effectiveness of the vaccines against the new variant - rather a comment on Hancock's implication that most hospitalised people might be somehow responsible for their unvaccinated status).
It's also data that is not available to the public at that level of granularity as far as I can see. I can see data for the North West which breaks it down into 0-5, 6-17, 18-64... but that's not very useful.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s ... -activity/
You cannot vaccinate your way out of a covid surge. As noted above, the time lag to generating effective immunity is anywhere from two to eight weeks after vaccination. The other thing to note is the lack of sterilizing immunity with these current vaccines. They are very good at stopping severe disease and death but they do not stop transmission. Vaccinated people can be infected and pass it on to the unvaccinated and immuno compromised.
A certain number of breakthrough infections will occur and vaccinated people will sicken and die.

The proper response to this dangerous strain is renewed restrictions. Lockdown, enhanced masking including outdoor mask mandates and double masking, which the Indians feel will protect against this variant.

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