Vaccine rollout in the UK

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
Post Reply
User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Light of Blast
Posts: 4801
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: nadir of brie

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Jan 10, 2021 1:50 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Jan 10, 2021 10:54 am
I'm not sure I'd have gone by Tube - quite likely 1 in 20 Londoners currently have it. A draughty bus feels safer but maybe it's just the claustrophobia of the Tube making me feel like that.
The new Routemasters aren't ventilated anyway (another excellent contribution from B. Johnson towards the spread of coronavirus in London), so it depends what route you're getting.

But I'd still rather wait at a draughty bus stop than down a tube tunnel.
THINK BIG AND UPEND THE SYSTEM

#ShowYourStripes

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Light of Blast
Posts: 4801
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: nadir of brie

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Jan 10, 2021 1:53 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:17 pm
I keep failing when I try to take their tracking shite off the end of the url.
In this case it was the url tag. You had

Code: Select all

[url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/09/nhs-vaccinate-uk-covid-five-days-oxford-professor[/url]VACCINATE ALL THE PEOPLE IN 5 DAYS![/url]
instead of

Code: Select all

[url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/09/nhs-vaccinate-uk-covid-five-days-oxford-professor]VACCINATE ALL THE PEOPLE IN 5 DAYS![/url]
so it was appending the extra

Code: Select all

[/url
to the url.

Anyway I fixed the link - ur lcome.
THINK BIG AND UPEND THE SYSTEM

#ShowYourStripes

Hunting Dog
Stargoon
Posts: 142
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:48 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Hunting Dog » Sun Jan 10, 2021 6:03 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Jan 10, 2021 10:54 am
Catching it on vaccination day is a serious problem. For many elderly it's their most risky activity in months.

I'm not sure I'd have gone by Tube - quite likely 1 in 20 Londoners currently have it. A draughty bus feels safer but maybe it's just the claustrophobia of the Tube making me feel like that.

My father got his. Said it was well organised, quick and easy. GPs generally do a good job but aren't suited to the throughput of mass numbers we'll need to get 2 million a week.
I'm not sure how much thought has been put into working out the travel issues. I just read a Graun article about the new mass vaccination sites that says:
Some 600 invites were due to be sent over the weekend and this coming week to people aged 80 and above who live up to a 45-minute drive from one of the new centres.
If they actually still drive, or have a carer/bubble member that can take them, then fine, otherwise up to 45 mins is a long while to be on public transport or in car with someone they wouldn't otherwise mix with.

User avatar
shpalman
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3016
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Sun Jan 10, 2021 6:23 pm

Hunting Dog wrote:
Sun Jan 10, 2021 6:03 pm
lpm wrote:
Sun Jan 10, 2021 10:54 am
Catching it on vaccination day is a serious problem. For many elderly it's their most risky activity in months.

I'm not sure I'd have gone by Tube - quite likely 1 in 20 Londoners currently have it. A draughty bus feels safer but maybe it's just the claustrophobia of the Tube making me feel like that.

My father got his. Said it was well organised, quick and easy. GPs generally do a good job but aren't suited to the throughput of mass numbers we'll need to get 2 million a week.
I'm not sure how much thought has been put into working out the travel issues. I just read a Graun article about the new mass vaccination sites that says:
Some 600 invites were due to be sent over the weekend and this coming week to people aged 80 and above who live up to a 45-minute drive from one of the new centres.
If they actually still drive, or have a carer/bubble member that can take them, then fine, otherwise up to 45 mins is a long while to be on public transport or in car with someone they wouldn't otherwise mix with.
link to Guardian live blog
The seven new England vaccine centres opening on Monday are: Ashton Gate in Bristol, Epsom racecourse in Surrey, the Excel Centre where London’s Nightingale hospital is based, Newcastle’s Centre for Life, the Manchester Tennis and Football Centre, Robertson House in Stevenage and Birmingham’s Millennium Point.
And this will apparently help by vaccinating... 600 people? There must be something wrong with how the Guardian has parsed what they've been told about the "600 invites".

A 45-minute drive is usually a lot further than 45 minutes of public transport* and this is taking the piss if driving for 5 miles for exercise has been considered against the rules.

And the site might well be operated as a drive through.

Maybe if you're in London you forget that in 45 minutes you can get half-way across the country. (From Lincoln you could get to Nottingham, where there isn't one of these new mass vaccination centres.)

(* - YMMV is you happen to live next to a railway)
molto tricky

User avatar
shpalman
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3016
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Sun Jan 10, 2021 6:33 pm

Yorkshire post says "130,000 invitations... with more than 500,000 to follow over the next seven days".
molto tricky

TheScientificHippy
Gray Pubic
Posts: 19
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:38 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by TheScientificHippy » Sun Jan 10, 2021 9:37 pm

Hunting Dog wrote:
Sun Jan 10, 2021 6:03 pm
lpm wrote:
Sun Jan 10, 2021 10:54 am
Catching it on vaccination day is a serious problem. For many elderly it's their most risky activity in months.

I'm not sure I'd have gone by Tube - quite likely 1 in 20 Londoners currently have it. A draughty bus feels safer but maybe it's just the claustrophobia of the Tube making me feel like that.

My father got his. Said it was well organised, quick and easy. GPs generally do a good job but aren't suited to the throughput of mass numbers we'll need to get 2 million a week.
I'm not sure how much thought has been put into working out the travel issues. I just read a Graun article about the new mass vaccination sites that says:
Some 600 invites were due to be sent over the weekend and this coming week to people aged 80 and above who live up to a 45-minute drive from one of the new centres.
If they actually still drive, or have a carer/bubble member that can take them, then fine, otherwise up to 45 mins is a long while to be on public transport or in car with someone they wouldn't otherwise mix with.
I did consider busses but the extra changes and time travelling in my head leant towards tubes. I didn't think about the station Vs bus stop thing and I had I would have probably picked bus. But I didn't. It is now 5 days later and I have no obvious symptoms so odds appear in my favour I didn't mess up too much.

I have to get busses to work and the number of times I have had to open windows when I get on is very surprising.

OneOffDave
Clardic Fug
Posts: 205
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:26 am

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by OneOffDave » Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:30 am

I'm 18 miles as the crow flies from the Epsom centre and looking at Google maps that's a 50 minute drive though that may be time of day related. By public transport it's a two hour journey one way using two trains, a bus and a walk but that is only if you can use my local station. As the Guildford bound platform doesn't have any access without using the footbridge. Otherwise it's a walk, a bus, a train, another bus and a walk and takes just over three hours. I would have thought venues in more built up areas would be better as the transport links tend to be better. I can't imagine the bus service from Epsom station to the race course is particularly frequent

User avatar
lpm
After Pie
Posts: 2489
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm
Location: COUNT THE VOTE. STOP THE COUNT.

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:40 am

Huh? Just lay on extra buses. Why is this hard?

This is why I tried to divide into hand-crafted solutions and mass production line solutions. The mass production line is what will get through millions and millions, but there will still be a huge number who need a hand-crafted service. GPs should be able to do all these, if special centres take the heavy lifting off their hands.
I'll miss him after he's fled to Riyadh

User avatar
discovolante
After Pie
Posts: 2230
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:10 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by discovolante » Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:44 am

Encouraging scenes from Newcastle today... :| :?
Attachments
20210111_104331.jpg
20210111_104331.jpg (509.52 KiB) Viewed 220 times
don't get any big ideas, they're not gonna happen

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Light of Blast
Posts: 4801
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: nadir of brie

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:25 am

discovolante wrote:
Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:44 am
Encouraging scenes from Newcastle today... :| :?
What am I missing?
THINK BIG AND UPEND THE SYSTEM

#ShowYourStripes

User avatar
headshot
Snowbonk
Posts: 432
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:40 am

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by headshot » Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:26 am

I don't understand why these centres weren't up and running before Christmas. We all knew the vaccine was coming, we all knew we'd need to hit the ground running. Why wait until now to get the infrastructure in place? As usual: too little, too late.

User avatar
discovolante
After Pie
Posts: 2230
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:10 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by discovolante » Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:29 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:25 am
discovolante wrote:
Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:44 am
Encouraging scenes from Newcastle today... :| :?
What am I missing?
Newcastle train station is about 5 minutes walk from there, it's nice and breezy and open. (Ok it's also a functioning train station but sssh)
don't get any big ideas, they're not gonna happen

User avatar
headshot
Snowbonk
Posts: 432
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:40 am

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by headshot » Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:31 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:40 am
Huh? Just lay on extra buses. Why is this hard?

This is why I tried to divide into hand-crafted solutions and mass production line solutions. The mass production line is what will get through millions and millions, but there will still be a huge number who need a hand-crafted service. GPs should be able to do all these, if special centres take the heavy lifting off their hands.
Right? We need to be on a war footing. "We" managed to get the industrial capabilities up and running quickly in the 30s and 40s. "We" had massive recruitment drives, giant volunteer schemes, huge efforts to collect enough materials , war bonds, commandeering and huge interventions by the state.

The Govt should be hitting this with everything they've got, sparing no expense. The current efforts all feel little half-arsed.

I don't understand why these centres weren't up and running before Christmas, so they could be put into action immediately as the vaccines came on line. We all knew the vaccine was coming, we all knew we'd need to hit the ground running. Why wait until now to get the infrastructure in place? As usual: too little, too late.

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Light of Blast
Posts: 4801
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: nadir of brie

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:32 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:40 am
Huh? Just lay on extra buses. Why is this hard?

This is why I tried to divide into hand-crafted solutions and mass production line solutions. The mass production line is what will get through millions and millions, but there will still be a huge number who need a hand-crafted service. GPs should be able to do all these, if special centres take the heavy lifting off their hands.
Yeah, if people are called to their slot by postcode area or something, it shouldn't be too hard to organise free shuttle buses. It just requires a bit of joined-up thinking. Presumably everyone can take a day of statutory sick pay to go and get their jab, too?

Portugal is off to a slow start, because their top priority is people in residential care and their staff, plus medical professionals - all of which require a hand-crafted service. But apparently the rest of the rollout will also be via GPs rather than mass jab centres, which is a worry, because a lot of GP practices were already overrun before the pandemic. Seeing as things like music venues and sports arenas are mostly empty till all this is over there's no shortage of centralised venues where we could be getting jabby with it.
THINK BIG AND UPEND THE SYSTEM

#ShowYourStripes

User avatar
Woodchopper
After Pie
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:00 pm

The problem with lots of free busses is that as far as I remember the vaccines don't start reducing infections for a week or two. I can see why it would be a bad idea to encourage lots of people who have been isolating for a year to sit on busses together. If one in 30-50 in the UK are infected today, that's easily one per bus on average.

Even after they arrive they'll all get off the bus at once and crowd together.

User avatar
lpm
After Pie
Posts: 2489
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm
Location: COUNT THE VOTE. STOP THE COUNT.

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:18 pm

Only have two or three people in each bus.

Expand from 7 mass vaccination centres to 7,000, plus 70,000 satellite offshoots.

The UK has masses of resources lying idle. For example National Express has shut down and all drivers furloughed. Hence it doesn't actually cost much to conscript them - just a bit of petrol money.
I'll miss him after he's fled to Riyadh

raven
Fuzzable
Posts: 292
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:58 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by raven » Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:04 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Jan 10, 2021 6:23 pm
A 45-minute drive is usually a lot further than 45 minutes of public transport* and this is taking the piss if driving for 5 miles for exercise has been considered against the rules.
This government don't do consistent.

Which is a problem in a pandemic. Inconsitent rules that make no sense is why people say f.ck it and break them.

Initial reaction: WTF? It's stupid to get everybody to travel to central locations when you've got a network of hospitals/GPs much closer to everybody, even stupider to send letters out and ask people to call to make appointments, and I'm fully expecting co-ordinating things at scale will go as well as booking testing at the drive-thru test centres did. (Is this another Deloitte job? Is it them or the gov that is allergic to working with the public health assets we already have that are distributed across the country?)

Slightly more considered reaction: I think people can still opt for their local GPs if they can't get to the centres, so they might have to wait a little longer, but if they're almost sheilding like my parents are I guess that a few weeks should be ok. And perhaps the refrigeration issues mean it'll go faster to bring people to the vaccine rather than vaccine to the people. And when we move to vaccinating the 'everybody else' 20 to 50 year old group, mass vaccination centres in London, Birmingham, Manchester etc is probably just what we need and opening them now gives them time to sort out teething problems.

People in their 70s & 80s maybe not the best guinea pigs though.

User avatar
lpm
After Pie
Posts: 2489
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm
Location: COUNT THE VOTE. STOP THE COUNT.

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:19 pm

Plan for England

Places:
- 206 hospital hub sites
- 1,200 local vaccination service sites (GPs, pharmacies, mobile units)
- 50 large scale vaccination centres
- 100% of English population within 10 miles of a site by end Jan (may be mobile unit for remote rural)

Targets:
- At least 2 million people per week by end of January
- Cohorts 1-4 complete by 15 February

Resources:
- Workforce of 80,000
- 200,000 have offered to be volunteers

Reporting:
- Daily data from today 11 January - total vaccinated
- On Thurs 14 Jan and weekly thereafter, detailed breakdown by type, category, region etc
I'll miss him after he's fled to Riyadh

User avatar
lpm
After Pie
Posts: 2489
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm
Location: COUNT THE VOTE. STOP THE COUNT.

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:22 pm

I'll miss him after he's fled to Riyadh

User avatar
lpm
After Pie
Posts: 2489
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm
Location: COUNT THE VOTE. STOP THE COUNT.

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:30 pm

It all seems easily achievable, assuming there is sufficient supply coming out of the factory gates.

Would mean by 31 March the first doses would be given to nearly all of the 9 cohorts (approx 27 million people). Not sure cohort 9 (50-55, 2.3 million people) will get there in time.

After 31 March comes the slow down - the 2 million vaccinations per week basically become second doses for the >80s etc getting vaccinated today. In theory a steady pace of 2 million a week means you lap yourself and don't jab any first doses in May and June (all second doses of Feb and March).
I'll miss him after he's fled to Riyadh

User avatar
lpm
After Pie
Posts: 2489
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm
Location: COUNT THE VOTE. STOP THE COUNT.

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:33 pm

Plan is to achieve 75% of each cohort. They reckon the most elderly / top cohorts will have the highest take up.

Anyone in 8 or 9 (55-60 and 50-55) should hope for poor turnout of the higher categories, to have a better chance to get a first dose before the 31 March lapping point.
I'll miss him after he's fled to Riyadh

User avatar
lpm
After Pie
Posts: 2489
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm
Location: COUNT THE VOTE. STOP THE COUNT.

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:50 pm

Official cohort numbers = England (UK in brackets)

1 Care Home Residents = 0.3m (0.3m)
1 Residential Care Workers = 0.4m (0.5m)
2 80+ = 2.8m (3.3m)
2 Healthcare Workers = 2.0m (2.4m)
2 Social Care Workers = 1.2m (1.4m)
3 75-79 = 1.9m (2.3m)
4 70-74 = 2.7m (3.2m)
4 Clinically Extremely Vulnerable (under 70) = 1.0m (1.2m)

Total priority cohorts 1-4 ~12m (~15m). Approx 88% of deaths.

5 65-69 = 2.4m (2.9m)
6 At Risk (under 65) = 6.1m (7.3m)
7 60-64 = 1.5m (1.8m)
8 55-59 = 2.0m (2.4m)
9 50-54 = 2.3m (2.8m)

Total priority cohorts 5-9 ~14m (~17m). Approx 11% of deaths

Total priority group population ~27m (~32m). Approx 99% of deaths

Rest of adult population ~18m (~21m)

Total ~44m (~53m)
I'll miss him after he's fled to Riyadh

User avatar
Brightonian
Snowbonk
Posts: 537
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 3:16 pm
Location: Usually UK, often France and Ireland

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Brightonian » Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:53 pm

Not sure whether this should go in the Developing the Vaccine thread but anyway.

According to this the Pfizer vaccine has to be handled just right or it won't work. Sounds almost as difficult as preparing homoeopathic medicine.*

https://twitter.com/BBCRadio4/status/13 ... 07073?s=19

User avatar
lpm
After Pie
Posts: 2489
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm
Location: COUNT THE VOTE. STOP THE COUNT.

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:06 pm

The only "devil in the detail" thing I got from reading the whole document was that the government targets are to offer the vaccine to each cohort. Not number of arms actually jabbed.

I think they implied 75% of each cohort take the vaccine. They base this on 80% success rate for the flu vaccine. No idea why they think fewer people will accept the covid vaccine.

If so, when they say all 12 million in cohorts 1-4 will be complete by 15 February, they actually mean all 12 million will have been offered the vaccine by then and 9 million will have got it done.
I'll miss him after he's fled to Riyadh

User avatar
bob sterman
Fuzzable
Posts: 346
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:25 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by bob sterman » Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:13 pm

Brightonian wrote:
Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:53 pm
Not sure whether this should go in the Developing the Vaccine thread but anyway.

According to this the Pfizer vaccine has to be handled just right or it won't work. Sounds almost as difficult as preparing homoeopathic medicine.*

https://twitter.com/BBCRadio4/status/13 ... 07073?s=19
Incredible! You're not meant to walk up stairs with the vial because the jostling could disrupt the fatty bubbles encasing the mRNA.

Post Reply