Vaccine rollout in the UK

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lpm
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Fri Feb 19, 2021 10:44 am

Here's the more sensible FT chart - includes 2nd doses for one thing.

Assumes constant 3 million per week. Last seven days average has dipped a bit (as expected) to 2.9m per week - lower Pfizer deliveries.

Image
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Fri Feb 19, 2021 10:57 am

jdc wrote:
Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:29 pm
shpalman wrote:
Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:23 pm
jdc wrote:
Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:16 pm
Liam Thorp's not getting his vaccine just yet: https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/li ... s-19857990
we know
Ah. I always read the serious subforums first. Haven't got through RS yet.
Well to be fair I didn't know whether to post this UK-vaccine-rollout-related anecdote in the thread in Pandemic Arena about the vaccine rollout in the UK, the thread in Pandemic Arena about whether people have had the vaccine which then got sidetracked into discussing the rollout and then whether it was the right thread for discussing people getting the vaccine as opposed to the rollout itself which already had a thread and then whether it was the right subforum for discussing people getting the vaccine, or the thread in RS about whether people have had the vaccine, or the thread in the other bit of the forum discussing which subforum to use to write about people getting the vaccine as opposed to the gettingness of the vaccine.

But if Liam Thorp is 6ft2in tall (1.88 m) and according to follow-up tweets from him, 17.5 stone (call it 110 kg to avoid spurious precision) then his BMI is actually about 31, which the NHS classifies as obese (and would suggest he try to lose 5-6 kg) but which he himself describes as "on the chunky side".
molto tricky

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:13 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Feb 13, 2021 11:53 am

Only one per cent of people offered a coronavirus jab have turned the chance down, according to the Office for National Statistics.

The figures will help allay fears that a reluctance to take the vaccine could harm the effect of the rollout, with doctors and public health chiefs expressing concerns that poor uptake rates could prolong the pandemic.

The ONS social survey found that, overall, only one person in 100 offered vaccination had declined, but with variation between age groups. The figure for those aged 30-49 was 5 per cent; for the 50-69s it was 2 per cent, and for the over-70s it was less than 1 per cent.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/one- ... -pxvcd3t09
Looks like this is the source. It’s a survey so the usual caveats apply. Vaccine refusers may be less likely to participate.
Of adults aged 70 years and over, 95% reported they had received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine; up from 78% last week. Around 1 in 25 (4%) reported they had been offered it and were awaiting it and less than 1% reported they had not yet been offered the COVID-19 vaccine. Less than 1% of adults aged 70 years and over also reported they had been offered it but declined it.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... bruary2021

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TimW
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by TimW » Fri Feb 19, 2021 12:25 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Feb 19, 2021 10:44 am
Here's the more sensible FT chart - includes 2nd doses for one thing.

Assumes constant 3 million per week. Last seven days average has dipped a bit (as expected) to 2.9m per week - lower Pfizer deliveries.

Image
Based on those assumptions there's room for another 5-year batch (or half of the over-40s) to fit in a first dose by mid-April, before the 2nd dose wall. Then virtually no new 1st doses until late June when they will quickly ramp up again. That'd mean the over-40s could be finished by the end of June. That's three months later than the Daily Mail headline.

To be fair, though, it wouldn't take a massive increase in the vaccination rate to squeeze the over-40s in before the mid-April cutoff, then the DM headline would inadvertently only be a few weeks out.

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lpm
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:14 pm

The good thing about a chart using a constant 3.0m a week is you can easily eyeball shortages or higher supply.

If supply falls to 2.5m a week for the next four weeks, then returns to 3.0m, that's a 2m shortfall for 5-9 which can easily be slotted into early April before the 2nd dose wall. This is why I was confident to guarantee a Group 9 forumite a 1st dose by mid-April at the very latest, because everything suggests only a couple of weeks lower supply at nearer 3m per week than 2.5m

But if it falls to 2.0m for four weeks, then the wall could prevent 5-9 from being completed by end April.

On the other hand, a rise to 3.5m in April/May doesn't get you a particularly big surplus over the 2nd dose wall for other adults. Obviously the Daily Mail's 4.2m a week from now onwards would make everything easy-peasy.

If supply stays around the 3m mark, the only people who should really care that much about exact doses per week are the 50-55 and 40-50 groups. A very bad supply situation could leave 50-55 delayed to the 2nd dose wall. A great supply situation could bring 40-50 in before the 2nd dose wall. If supply rises to 4m or 5m then everyone gets to celebrate.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by bjn » Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:28 pm

Annecdata. I was just talking to the neighbour, who is in his 40s as is his wife. She's been just been vaccinated and he's signed up for tomorrow, and neither are in a vulnerable group, he said he knows of several other similar folk being offered vaccines. My West London local health authority seems to be thundering ahead.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by TimW » Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:55 pm

^ That's interesting, because there are a load of stories about how London is falling behind, e.g. London Covid vaccine rollout: One in 5 of over-80s in the capital haven’t had a jab, "raising fresh questions about the capital’s sluggish jab rollout", in the Standard.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Grumble » Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:38 pm

TimW wrote:
Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:55 pm
^ That's interesting, because there are a load of stories about how London is falling behind, e.g. London Covid vaccine rollout: One in 5 of over-80s in the capital haven’t had a jab, "raising fresh questions about the capital’s sluggish jab rollout", in the Standard.
But presumably they’ve been offered it? It might tally well with reports of high levels of BAME vaccine refusal.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by MartinDurkin » Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:20 pm

MartinDurkin wrote:
Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:51 pm
My wife (under 65 but shielding) got her invite this week and should be done next week. I'm 61 with no underlying conditions (at least none on their list, I thought my thyroid issues might bump me up the queue), and have not heard anything yet, as expected.

Meanwhile, a mate who lives on the other side of Leeds, 61 with no underlying conditions, and his brother, 58 and no underlying conditions had their first dose today. They did query it with the nurse and she said they had done everyone ahead of them on the list.
Mate's brother got his second vaccine today and mate is getting his next week. Meanwhile, 2 post codes away, I still haven't heard anything.

(Apols for quoting myself, would of got me flamed on Usenet lol).

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Sat Feb 20, 2021 11:02 pm

Official target for 5-9 brought forward to 15 April.

All adults to be offered 1st dose vaccine by 31 July.

All easily achievable.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:55 am

Too many people (on twitter at least) are making the mistake of applying 2020 rules to 2021.

It's vital to appreciate that from 1 May 2021 Covid will be an essentially non-fatal disease in the UK.

There will still be deaths of course, from vaccine refusers, from the vaccine failure rate, from people currently in hospital who won't die till May, and because the 1-9 cohorts only cover 99% of fatalities. But then there are deaths from flu, norovirus, even ordinary colds. For a mortal species such as Homo sapiens no policy can aim for zero deaths.

And from 1 May 2021 the disease's age profile in the UK will be dramatically different than 2020. This used to be a threat to the old. It will become a threat to the under 50s. Hospitalisations will be a radically different mix, requiring different approaches to care. It won't be the frail elderly or those with serious other conditions, but very ill people who were previously fit.

And the R rate will be impacted by the 50% of the population who've had their 1st dose. It's pretty clear that transmission is significantly reduced by one dose, as expected, even if scientific proof isn't there yet. The virus is going to keep running into people with vaccine-based or previous-infection immunity. This will buy the UK a dramatic quantity of unlockdown points - what we can afford to open up and still keep R<1 - and we can spend those points on "expensive" stuff like fully opening schools and universities, family parties, pubs and gyms.

Then from 15 August there's a whole new world again. Two weeks on from the point when 100% of adults will have been offered the 1st dose. That's 80% of the population offered, maybe 70% taken. Herd immunity from vaccination will exist. 70% is easily into the territory that keeps R<1 without much more than wearing masks on public transport and not having mass singing inside churchs.

The entire focus of the sane part of twitter etc should be to hold the line on lockdown measures until 1 May, while conceding ground freely for plans after 1 May. For example demanding pubs stay shut throughout March and April but calling for UK holidays to be allowed from June onwards. There has to be some sense of trade off, because ever since the UK was Cummingsed the loyalty to lockdown measures have always been a bit shaky.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Sun Feb 21, 2021 12:36 pm

"Pfizer's Covid vaccine stopped 89.4% of transmission in Israel".

Not 89.5%. Not 89.3%. But 89.4%.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by bob sterman » Sun Feb 21, 2021 12:51 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 12:36 pm
"Pfizer's Covid vaccine stopped 89.4% of transmission in Israel".

Not 89.5%. Not 89.3%. But 89.4%.
Not great news for the 0.1% hoping for 89.5% rather than 89.4%.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Sun Feb 21, 2021 4:53 pm

Rolling average for past week has fallen to 2.5m per week. So the unofficial info that supply was going to have a couple of lower weeks turned out to be correct. Maybe the official 5-9 target date of 15 April is based on this carrying on a while - but the maths shows 2.8m a week is enough to get there by 31 March.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:59 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:55 am



The entire focus of the sane part of twitter etc should be to hold the line on lockdown measures until 1 May, while conceding ground freely for plans after 1 May. For example demanding pubs stay shut throughout March and April but calling for UK holidays to be allowed from June onwards. There has to be some sense of trade off, because ever since the UK was Cummingsed the loyalty to lockdown measures have always been a bit shaky.
Yes, there needs to be an absolute total lockdown until May 1. Maybe May15.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:10 am

COVID-19: Vaccine rollout linked to 85% (Pfizer) and 94% (AstraZeneca) drop in risk of coronavirus hospital admissions in Scotland, link on Sky News says

There's been a study by experts and everything.

Could have been worse, it could literally have been just a screengrab of some words posted on twitter.

The Guardian has also pasted in the press release about the not-peer-reviewed-yet study.
Last edited by shpalman on Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:15 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by MartinDurkin » Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:11 am

Good news. UK government plan to use time travel to tackle the pandemic.
https://twitter.com/jonlis1/status/1363 ... 47874?s=20

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:17 am

shpalman wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:10 am
COVID-19: Vaccine rollout linked to 85% (Pfizer) and 94% (AstraZeneca) drop in risk of coronavirus hospital admissions in Scotland, link on Sky News says

There's been a study by experts and everything.

Could have been worse, it could literally have been just a screengrab of some words posted on twitter.

The Guardian has also pasted in the press release about the not-peer-reviewed-yet study.
Ah it's ok they're briefing journalists about the not-peer-reviewed-yet unavailable-to-read study. They'll tell us what to do.
AZ & Pfizer jabs both associated with >75% drop in hospitalisations at all age groups, if I've understood correctly
Well if some f.cking scientists were allowed to see the data maybe they'd have a better chance of understanding it correctly.
molto tricky

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:50 am

Mate, they're rushing out data because it's urgently needed, they don't have time to put it in a nice Powerpoint presentation for you.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:55 am

They might for all I know have put it into nice Powerpoint slides for the journalists but "don't have time" to chuck a double-spaced Word-generated pdf up on https://www.medrxiv.org/
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Mon Feb 22, 2021 2:08 pm

I found https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/6/e039097 but it's from the middle of last year.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by JQH » Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:32 pm

MartinDurkin wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:11 am
Good news. UK government plan to use time travel to tackle the pandemic.
https://twitter.com/jonlis1/status/1363 ... 47874?s=20
Jesus f.cking Christ! He came straight out and said 8th March is three weeks after mid April ...
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Wed Feb 24, 2021 7:27 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:55 am
They might for all I know have put it into nice Powerpoint slides for the journalists but "don't have time" to chuck a double-spaced Word-generated pdf up on https://www.medrxiv.org/
Well there obviously is a preprint somewhere because this is a bit of it.

Image

It's just that lazy arrogant hacks can't be bothered to tell us where it is.

Neither expert reaction to preprint from Scotland looking at hospitalisations in Scotland and vaccinations nor Scotland real-world data on vaccine roll-out and hospitalisations even seemed to have any f.cking links to it either but at least one of them gave its full title which I could then google.

I'm linking it here because at least I'm not a c.nt.*

Effectiveness of First Dose of COVID-19 Vaccines Against Hospital Admissions in Scotland: National Prospective Cohort Study of 5.4 Million People

Vasileiou, Eleftheria and Simpson, Colin R. and Robertson, Chris and Shi, Ting and Kerr, Steven and Agrawal, Utkarsh and Akbari, Ashley and Bedston, Stuart and Beggs, Jillian and Bradley, Declan and Chuter, Antony and de Lusignan, Simon and Docherty, Annemarie and Ford, David and Hobbs, Richard and Joy, Mark and Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal and Marple, James and McCowan, Colin and McGagh, Dylan and McMenamin, Jim and Moore, Emily and Murray, Josephine-L.K and Pan, Jiafeng and Ritchie, Lewis and Shah, Syed Ahmar and Stock, Sarah and Torabi, Fatemeh and Tsang, Ruby S. M. and Wood, Rachael and Woolhouse, Mark and Sheikh, Aziz, Effectiveness of First Dose of COVID-19 Vaccines Against Hospital Admissions in Scotland: National Prospective Cohort Study of 5.4 Million People. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3789264 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3789264

(* - I am, but this isn't why)
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Wed Feb 24, 2021 7:41 pm

So I'm able to bring you a clearer version of Table 2 out of off of it.
Scotland-vax-preprint-tab2.png
Scotland-vax-preprint-tab2.png (630.06 KiB) Viewed 120 times
Marvel at how the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine falls of with time after the first dose, just like Pfizer themselves said to not delay the second dose just to fatten up your rollout statistics. And how we don't actually know from this if the AstraZeneca one does the same thing.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:00 am

The vaccine minister, Zahawi, on telly this morning:
March will be a very big month for us... probably going to be twice the rate over the next 10 weeks as we have done over the past 10 or 11 weeks.
Says the NHS has been stockpiling doses for past ten days to guarantee everyone gets 2nd dose of the correct vaccine.

This is huge news - if true. The 7-day rolling average dipped down to a minimum of 2.25m per week but is now heading upwards again. For the "past 10 or 11 weeks" we've averaged 2m per week overall, so the minister implies doubling to 4m per week.

As a reminder, here was the FT chart that assumed constant 3m per week. Now a couple of weeks out of date and doesn't show the slower pace in the second half of Feb. 4m a week would give 1m a week 1st doses above the "2nd dose wall".

Image
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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