Vaccine rollout in the UK

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Martin Y
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Martin Y » Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:32 pm

I got a text from NHSvaccine telling me I could book a vaccination due to a preexisting condition, but that was 3 days after I got a text from my GP telling me I could book a vaccination due to my age, but that was 3 days after I already booked a vaccination when Mrs Y told me 56 year olds could do it now. So that seems a bit messed up but <shrug> roll on next Friday.

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Grumble
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Grumble » Sun Mar 14, 2021 11:46 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 7:01 pm
bob sterman wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:43 pm
snoozeofreason wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 11:18 am
There have been two further outbreaks reported in Devonshire care homes where most staff and residents had been vaccinated. The originally mentioned one in Sidmouth is apparently being investigated by police and other agencies.
Yes - it seems there is a "complex police investigation" underway...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-56372847

Can't really even begin to wonder what that might mean.
warning! anecdote: A friend was telling me her mother's care home was under super lockdown after an out break among unvaccinated staff! How can that be?
Rates of vaccine denial among care home staff are probably as high as among the general population. Total speculation but I suspect that you get clusters or bubbles of vaccine deniers as well. Add them together and I bet there are a few care homes with unvaccinated staff.
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Squeak » Mon Mar 15, 2021 1:21 am

snoozeofreason wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 11:18 am
I guess that, at some point, we will reach a situation where most Covid cases occur in people who have been vaccinated - not because the vaccines don't work, but because 10% of the vaccinated population is a bigger number than 100% of the unvaccinated - particularly among those groups most susceptible to the disease. Some delicacy will be required in order to report those cases without fuelling resistance to vaccination.
That's absolutely going to happen in Australia. The last covid death in the country happened last year (one death each in November and December) thanks to some really strict lockdowns and limitations of travel (all state borders opened yesterday for the first time in a year). All up, we've had about 900 deaths in a country with a population 40% the size of the UK's.

Once the vaccine rollout gets to some decent percentage of the population, we will have to let illnesses happen. It's a mathematical certainty that the majority of covid infections and deaths in Australia will happen post vaccination, simply because our health authorities and politicians kept us on the right side of the exponential curve while there was no vaccine. I'm sure all of Rupert Murdoch's newspapers will report these numbers sensitively and with appropriate nuance to help people understand why this actually demonstrates the success of Australia's handling of the pandemic. :/

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lpm
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:11 am

Grumble wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 8:00 pm
lpm wrote:
Fri Mar 12, 2021 7:14 pm
lpm wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:54 pm
Group 8 is relatively small. It implies Group 9, 50-55, will be invited forward one week from today.
This will happen tonight, bet you a zillion pounds. Any 50-54s around? If so look out at:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavir ... ccination/
You owe me a zillion pounds, it still hasn’t happened.
Damn it. I was only planning to bet a quadrillion pounds but got reckless and went for a zillion.

But anecdotally a lot of GPs are inviting 50-54. The take up by Group 6 (at risk) remains lower than it should be.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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lpm
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:15 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:49 pm
lpm wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:08 am
Week to Sat 20 Feb: 2.5m 1st doses
Week to Sat 27 Feb: 2.5m 1st doses

So the lull, partly supply and partly stockpiling for 2nd doses (Pfizer probably), has cost us 1 million vs the FT chart. Improving from 3m to 4m per week would mean we catch up this deficit in a single week, if my calculations are correct.
Update as it was a bad week, the worst since mid Jan.

Week to Sat 20 Feb: 2.5m 1st doses (0.1m 2nd)
Week to Sat 27 Feb: 2.5m 1st doses (0.2m 2nd)
Week to Sat 6 Mar: 2.1m 1st doses (0.3m 2nd)

So now 2m behind the "constant 3m per week" chart.

Talk that it's going to be another bad week. Call it 2m. But then March ends with two huge weeks of possibly 5m per week. If we get 12m in three weeks that not only delivers 2nd doses and completes groups 1-9 but makes a big start on 40-49.

Depends on take up, but by my calculations we need to do another:

- 2.0m of Group 6 (at risk) at 90% initial take up
- 0.1 m of Group 7 (60-64) at 90% initial take up
- 2.0m of Group 8 (55-59) at 85% initial take up
- 2.4m of Group 9 (50-54) at 85% initial take up

Total 6.5m

I expect Group 9 to be invited for week commencing 15 March and mostly complete by 21 March, then straight on to 40-49 well before Easter.

For those waiting for 2nd doses, Pfizer is being accelerated. My father got his 2nd at 8 week anniversary. Current 2nd dose level exceeds that indicated by simply taking 12 week anniversary figures.
Update:

Week to Sat 20 Feb: 2.5m 1st doses (0.1m 2nd)
Week to Sat 27 Feb: 2.5m 1st doses (0.2m 2nd)
Week to Sat 6 Mar: 2.1m 1st doses (0.3m 2nd)
Week to Sat 13 Mar: 2.0m 1st doses (0.5m 2nd)

Now all set for 5m per week, all the way up to Easter.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:33 am

Nottingham: 40-49 begins.
If you are aged 40 or over, you can now book in for your Covid-19 vaccination
https://nottsccg.nhs.uk/covid-19/covid- ... -and-over/
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Grumble
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Grumble » Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:53 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:33 am
Nottingham: 40-49 begins.
If you are aged 40 or over, you can now book in for your Covid-19 vaccination
https://nottsccg.nhs.uk/covid-19/covid- ... -and-over/
Wow, well done Nottingham.
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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Grumble
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Grumble » Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:59 am

There’s a lot of variation in how well the websites are kept up to date. My local one is still talking about over 70’s. That’s well out of date - I know for a fact they’re well beyond that.

http://www.stockport.nhs.uk/page_3271
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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mediocrity511
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by mediocrity511 » Mon Mar 15, 2021 11:49 am

Grumble wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:53 am
lpm wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:33 am
Nottingham: 40-49 begins.
If you are aged 40 or over, you can now book in for your Covid-19 vaccination
https://nottsccg.nhs.uk/covid-19/covid- ... -and-over/
Wow, well done Nottingham.
Given how Nottingham was mentioned in an article about least vaccinated places a couple of weeks back and how slow they were reaching all in groups 1-4, I'm inclined to think this may be a case of low uptake rather than a stellar vaccine roll out.

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lpm
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:26 pm

Low uptake is a good little dilemma.

Human happiness is increased when a 40 yr old eager for the vaccine gets it before a 60 yr old who can't be arsed.

Society's death rate is increased because the 60 yr old has a slightly higher IFR - but the increase is due to the known problem of people being crap at caring for their own health.

The reduction in transmission of the virus should be same.

Personally I'm happy to see our society racing to people who really want the vaccine. If more vulnerable people get left behind, that's their look out. They've been invited. Stupid people do stupid things like smoking, what's one more stupid thing.

I'll only start caring when the supply of eager 18-30 yr olds dries up, because then transmission becomes relevant.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by mediocrity511 » Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:45 pm

It depends why uptake is low though among certain groups. Obviously there's the can't be bothered factor, but there's also the "can't negotiate the online system and the booking phoneline constantly falls over" or there's the "doesn't speak English very well, so needs to rely on a relative to do it for them", "doesn't watch or read the news so needs to be personally notified" etc. etc.

Let's be honest, any system which allows the most motivated to get vaccinated first means that the sharp elbowed middle classes get done first. And that will leave communities who have much lower level of protections and that will exacerbate inequalities.

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RoMo
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by RoMo » Mon Mar 15, 2021 1:56 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:33 am
Nottingham: 40-49 begins.
If you are aged 40 or over, you can now book in for your Covid-19 vaccination
https://nottsccg.nhs.uk/covid-19/covid- ... -and-over/
Local news has just said it was a mistake and 40-49 year olds can't actually book after all!

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Grumble
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Grumble » Mon Mar 15, 2021 2:03 pm

mediocrity511 wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:45 pm
It depends why uptake is low though among certain groups. Obviously there's the can't be bothered factor, but there's also the "can't negotiate the online system and the booking phoneline constantly falls over" or there's the "doesn't speak English very well, so needs to rely on a relative to do it for them", "doesn't watch or read the news so needs to be personally notified" etc. etc.

Let's be honest, any system which allows the most motivated to get vaccinated first means that the sharp elbowed middle classes get done first. And that will leave communities who have much lower level of protections and that will exacerbate inequalities.
How many people might have changed their phone number and not told their GP? I’ve just realised this is me, I’m in no position to throw stones. I bet there’s always a percentage of people who are hard to contact for a variety of reasons and that percentage is likely to be higher in more deprived areas.
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by mediocrity511 » Mon Mar 15, 2021 2:05 pm

RoMo wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 1:56 pm
lpm wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:33 am
Nottingham: 40-49 begins.
If you are aged 40 or over, you can now book in for your Covid-19 vaccination
https://nottsccg.nhs.uk/covid-19/covid- ... -and-over/
Local news has just said it was a mistake and 40-49 year olds can't actually book after all!
That's a bit odd seeing as how there's a statement and everything!

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by mediocrity511 » Mon Mar 15, 2021 2:10 pm

https://swiftqueue.zendesk.com/hc/en-gb ... f4UJYeXUDw

But you are right. Looks like a fair few people who were quick off the mark got appointments before they backtracked though.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Mon Mar 15, 2021 2:15 pm

mediocrity511 wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:45 pm
It depends why uptake is low though among certain groups. Obviously there's the can't be bothered factor, but there's also the "can't negotiate the online system and the booking phoneline constantly falls over" or there's the "doesn't speak English very well, so needs to rely on a relative to do it for them", "doesn't watch or read the news so needs to be personally notified" etc. etc.

Let's be honest, any system which allows the most motivated to get vaccinated first means that the sharp elbowed middle classes get done first. And that will leave communities who have much lower level of protections and that will exacerbate inequalities.
The missing millions in Group 6, plus in Groups 5 & 7, is well above the numbers that can be explained by poor English, no internet etc.

There's an urgent need for surveys of why so many aren't coming forward promptly. Too much of the discussion is binary: takers vs vaccine conspiracists. I think my categories of "can't be bothereds" and "I'll get it done but will sort it laters" and "I'm not at risk and will let others go firsters" are more useful. We don't just need estimates of final take up, we also need a sense of how long and painful it'll be to drag several million arms into a vaccine centre. The problem will hit overnight: one moment loads of 18 years waiting eagerly in the queue, the next moment nothing but people who ignored text messages.

This does mean that eager 18 year olds will be done a lot earlier than most rollout commentators keep saying - there will be several weeks worth of older can't be bothereds still not done. I don't think it's fair to call the eager "sharp elbowed middle classes" - being most motivated and health-aware is a good thing. Nobody is jumping the queue, if you're holding the number 78 ticket and nobody shows up when they repeatedly shout for 76 and 77 then it's simply number 78's turn. And I'm pretty happy the UK is shouting loud and clear for the missing in the priority groups to come forward.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by raven » Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:59 pm

mediocrity511 wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:45 pm
It depends why uptake is low though among certain groups. Obviously there's the can't be bothered factor, but there's also the "can't negotiate the online system and the booking phoneline constantly falls over" or there's the "doesn't speak English very well, so needs to rely on a relative to do it for them", "doesn't watch or read the news so needs to be personally notified" etc. etc.
Or, as was the case for someone I know, deliberately not taking up the offer in January because they knew lots of people who'd had side effects and they were about to have a much-needed operation that had already been delayed by 8 months....

And then the op was cancelled. Again.

(They finally had the op this month, so fingers crossed the GPs will squeeze them in for the vaccine asap.)
lpm wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 2:15 pm
The missing millions in Group 6, plus in Groups 5 & 7, is well above the numbers that can be explained by poor English, no internet etc.
Here, they're doing Group 6 in parallel to groups 5,7,8 & 9 -- i.e. local GPs are working through 6 while the rest are getting called up to the mass centres in descending age order. So even if take up was 100%, our area should be almost finished with 5 &7 and yet still only be halfway done 6.

The NHS England stats as of March 9th for take-up are:
60-64 69.4%
65-69 89.2%
70-74 95.9%
75-79 100%*
80+ 94.8%

(The 100% is because we've done more 75-79 yr olds than we thought existed...)

I'm guessing that the younger groups are trailing because a) there hasn't been as long to chase the stragglers, b) they're less worried than 80 yr olds, c) they're still working and therefore find it harder to get to the drs, or d) they're having more social contact so are more likely to have to self-isolate, which is valid reason for not making your vaccine appointment.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Grumble » Mon Mar 15, 2021 11:09 pm

raven wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:59 pm
(The 100% is because we've done more 75-79 yr olds than we thought existed...)
Well that’s an interesting point for another thread. If only there was a survey of some sort where we could find out how many people of a given age there are...
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by raven » Mon Mar 15, 2021 11:22 pm

Grumble wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 11:09 pm
If only there was a survey of some sort where we could find out how many people of a given age there are...
Funnily enough there'll be one in ... Idk, how long does it take them to collate all the census forms? Probably a couple of months.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:14 am

lpm wrote:
Fri Mar 12, 2021 7:14 pm
lpm wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:54 pm
Group 8 is relatively small. It implies Group 9, 50-55, will be invited forward one week from today.
This will happen tonight, bet you a zillion pounds. Any 50-54s around? If so look out at:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavir ... ccination/
Finally. 4 days late. Get in there, Group 9s.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by raven » Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:28 pm

Group 9 is definitely a go. Got a text from the GPs earlier, booked in on Saturday. Yay!

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Wed Mar 17, 2021 5:09 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... r-shortage
People under 50 will have to wait a month longer than planned for their Covid vaccination because of a major shortage of vaccine that will start at the end of the month
molto tricky

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by headshot » Wed Mar 17, 2021 5:10 pm

Just came here to post the very same.

Why am I not surprised...

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by headshot » Wed Mar 17, 2021 5:12 pm

They're currently talking about how effective both vaccine are after a single dose.

Why do I get a strong feeling they're going to switch to a single dose strategy?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Wed Mar 17, 2021 5:16 pm

headshot wrote:
Wed Mar 17, 2021 5:10 pm
Just came here to post the very same.

Why am I not surprised...
Is it because the UK's strategy of keeping all its domestically produced vaccines to itself while importing from the EU at the same time has been rumbled?
molto tricky

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