Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
Posted: Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:41 pm
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covi ... of-success
New Public Health England (PHE) analysis shows for the first time that individuals who receive a single dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine have approximately 80% lower risk of death with COVID-19 compared with unvaccinated individuals.
The report also shows protection against death from the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine rises from approximately 80% after one dose to 97% after 2 doses.
Separate new PHE analysis also confirms the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is highly effective in reducing the risk of hospitalisation, especially in older ages.
In one paper published today, PHE looked at the number of new symptomatic polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive cases between December and April, and those who subsequently died within 28 days of their positive test and compared them according to vaccination status.
This showed that COVID-19 cases vaccinated with a single dose of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or the AstraZeneca vaccines had similar levels of protection against mortality after a single dose, at 44% and 55% respectively, compared with unvaccinated cases.
Combined with the protection vaccines offer against becoming a case in the first place, this is equivalent to approximately 80% protection against mortality in individuals vaccinated with a single dose of either vaccine.
For the first time, the latest analysis includes protection against mortality from the AstraZeneca vaccine, and additional protection from 2 doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.
The data shows that protection against mortality from the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is even higher – around 69% – for confirmed cases who had their second dose at least 7 days prior to their positive test.
When combined with the estimated protection against becoming a case, this is equivalent to an estimated 97% protection against mortality in individuals vaccinated with 2 doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.
A separate new PHE report also shows further evidence that the vaccine is highly effective in reducing the risk of hospitalisation, especially in older ages.
For the over 80s, it is estimated that 2 doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine reduces the risk of hospitalisation by 93%.
My understanding is that a decent number of GPs have declined to participate in vaccinating under 50 year olds, instead leaving that up to the mass vaccination centres and pharmacies. So lots of GP led vaccine centres aren't doing younger people anyway, so are probably slowly winding down. If they can carry on at mass capacity for a bit then that might do it.lpm wrote: ↑Fri May 14, 2021 5:26 pmThey're claiming it won't impact 1st doses for the young-uns, cos they'll get Pfizer/Moderna, while the 2nd doses are mostly AZ.
Which is true. But:
(a) why didn't they roll out quicker if they have all these stocks to spare?
(b) there's still the constraint of humans sticking needles into arms. Are there enough jabbers/locations/volunteers to do an absolutely massive 2 weeks?
[Boris Johnson] announced that the army would be deployed to two variant hotspots – Bolton and Blackburn with Darwen – to help with vaccinationslpm wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 8:50 amLooking back, 7 weeks ago was when 1st doses for >50s was effectively complete (NI a bit earlier, Scotland a bit later). Our own TopBadger was an example of a 40 something who got jabbed 7 weeks ago.
There were stragglers, but stragglers always gonna straggle, they'll straggle for the 2nd as well in their straggly kind of way.
Looking at the historical numbers, the announcement effectively claims around 5m to 6m second doses will get moved earlier into the coming week. Not remotely plausible. Moving forward seconds from averaging 11 weeks to 10 weeks is probably achievable.
But wouldn't it make more sense to send squadrons of vaccinators flying off to Bolton etc? In two or three weeks time, we might be very glad to have a million extra 18-40s first dosed in areas where the NHS is coming under stress.
He also urged residents in those areas to “think twice” before taking advantages of the freedoms allowed again from Monday.
report of hint that something will be imminent any time now... councillor Andy Morgan, Bolton council’s cabinet member for adult social services, insisted the council had been given some “flexibility” to vaccinate younger people, and would be offering vaccines to all over-18s in the three worst-affected wards from Saturday.
Despite the councillor’s confidence, local politicians have no jurisdiction over vaccination centres. Bolton’s clinical commissioning group runs the district’s eight sites and it is not clear which guidance they will follow. A spokeswoman for Bolton clinical commissioning group suggested there would be no immediate offer of vaccinations to over-18s.
Fixed that for him.Harrison said it would be foolish to [allow further unlocking] without first boosting vaccination rates in areas of high transmission
more on how that's calculatedshpalman wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 5:47 amthe UK has a stockpile of about 12 million doses
(Italy has a stockpile of about 2.5 million as of this morning).
Indeed. And a tightening up of restrictions - unpopular as it would be. Cases in Bolton are not good. CovidZoe says that Doncaster is also bad.lpm wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 8:50 amLooking back, 7 weeks ago was when 1st doses for >50s was effectively complete (NI a bit earlier, Scotland a bit later). Our own TopBadger was an example of a 40 something who got jabbed 7 weeks ago.
There were stragglers, but stragglers always gonna straggle, they'll straggle for the 2nd as well in their straggly kind of way.
Looking at the historical numbers, the announcement effectively claims around 5m to 6m second doses will get moved earlier into the coming week. Not remotely plausible. Moving forward seconds from averaging 11 weeks to 10 weeks is probably achievable.
But wouldn't it make more sense to send squadrons of vaccinators flying off to Bolton etc? In two or three weeks time, we might be very glad to have a million extra 18-40s first dosed in areas where the NHS is coming under stress.
And Bolton has over twice as many cases as Wales. It's *very* clumpy at the moment so surge vaccination makes sense to me.jimbob wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 11:55 amIndeed. And a tightening up of restrictions - unpopular as it would be. Cases in Bolton are not good. CovidZoe says that Doncaster is also bad.lpm wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 8:50 amLooking back, 7 weeks ago was when 1st doses for >50s was effectively complete (NI a bit earlier, Scotland a bit later). Our own TopBadger was an example of a 40 something who got jabbed 7 weeks ago.
There were stragglers, but stragglers always gonna straggle, they'll straggle for the 2nd as well in their straggly kind of way.
Looking at the historical numbers, the announcement effectively claims around 5m to 6m second doses will get moved earlier into the coming week. Not remotely plausible. Moving forward seconds from averaging 11 weeks to 10 weeks is probably achievable.
But wouldn't it make more sense to send squadrons of vaccinators flying off to Bolton etc? In two or three weeks time, we might be very glad to have a million extra 18-40s first dosed in areas where the NHS is coming under stress.
Now perhaps I'm just too cynical - but his choice of the present tense ("are eligible") caused me to raise an eyebrow.If you want to know why that’s important, the majority of people in hospital with coronavirus in Bolton this morning are eligible for the jab but haven’t had it yet – [that] is the strongest point of why it’s so important for everybody to come forward and get this jab
It's also data that is not available to the public at that level of granularity as far as I can see. I can see data for the North West which breaks it down into 0-5, 6-17, 18-64... but that's not very useful.bob sterman wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 12:51 pmSo on TV today Hancock emphasised the importance of vaccination by saying...Now perhaps I'm just too cynical - but his choice of the present tense ("are eligible") caused me to raise an eyebrow.If you want to know why that’s important, the majority of people in hospital with coronavirus in Bolton this morning are eligible for the jab but haven’t had it yet – [that] is the strongest point of why it’s so important for everybody to come forward and get this jab
Working backwards - with typical lags between infection, symptoms and hospitalisation - to prevent a hospitalisation in early/mid May - someone would need to have been vaccinated in mid-April.
And as there is typically a delay between becoming eligible to book a vaccine, and the first available appointment, to prevent this hospitalisation in early/mid May the patient would probably have needed to become "eligible for the jab" in early April.
(Obviously - this isn't a comment on the effectiveness of the vaccines against the new variant - rather a comment on Hancock's implication that most hospitalised people might be somehow responsible for their unvaccinated status).
You cannot vaccinate your way out of a covid surge. As noted above, the time lag to generating effective immunity is anywhere from two to eight weeks after vaccination. The other thing to note is the lack of sterilizing immunity with these current vaccines. They are very good at stopping severe disease and death but they do not stop transmission. Vaccinated people can be infected and pass it on to the unvaccinated and immuno compromised.jimbob wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 2:34 pmIt's also data that is not available to the public at that level of granularity as far as I can see. I can see data for the North West which breaks it down into 0-5, 6-17, 18-64... but that's not very useful.bob sterman wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 12:51 pmSo on TV today Hancock emphasised the importance of vaccination by saying...Now perhaps I'm just too cynical - but his choice of the present tense ("are eligible") caused me to raise an eyebrow.If you want to know why that’s important, the majority of people in hospital with coronavirus in Bolton this morning are eligible for the jab but haven’t had it yet – [that] is the strongest point of why it’s so important for everybody to come forward and get this jab
Working backwards - with typical lags between infection, symptoms and hospitalisation - to prevent a hospitalisation in early/mid May - someone would need to have been vaccinated in mid-April.
And as there is typically a delay between becoming eligible to book a vaccine, and the first available appointment, to prevent this hospitalisation in early/mid May the patient would probably have needed to become "eligible for the jab" in early April.
(Obviously - this isn't a comment on the effectiveness of the vaccines against the new variant - rather a comment on Hancock's implication that most hospitalised people might be somehow responsible for their unvaccinated status).
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s ... -activity/