Vaccine rollout in Italy

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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Thu Jan 06, 2022 3:17 pm

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's current predictions for Italy has daily deaths peaking in mid February, at about 400 per day but anywhere between 300 and 600 per day varying the assumptions (it's currently heading up towards 200). Infections will peak at around half a million per day towards the end of January (they have the true number at something like 300,000 per day now).

I'm not sure how to interpret their hospital occupancy prediction, except that it's going to peak at around the same time and looks like it will reach a level similar to December 2020.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:05 pm

A couple of dodgy visualizations for you:
271806326_2019767878201025_6348344709082803534_n.png
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The numbers on the right would be the numbers of people in each category, the numbers across the bottom are the rates per 100,000.

I think the upper one is the total number in hospital and the lower one is the number in intensive care. Well, that's what it says, but I wanted to check it was occupancy not admissions.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Millennie Al » Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:27 am

shpalman wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:05 pm
I wanted to check it was occupancy not admissions.
I think it must be admissions because of the label "12/11/2021 - 12/12/2021". Occupancy would be at an instant in time, while admissions would be during a period. While I suppose you could have average occupancy during a period, it wouldn't be very useful when numbers are going up and down.

And there's something strange about the population figures. If you add up the four categories you get 52,431,181 but according to Wiipedia the population of Italy is 60,317,116 estimated in 2020, (or 59,433,744 from 2011 census). Where are the remaining 7 million? (Unless they're vaccinated exactly 4 months!!).

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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Martin_B » Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:11 am

Millennie Al wrote:
Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:27 am
shpalman wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:05 pm
I wanted to check it was occupancy not admissions.
I think it must be admissions because of the label "12/11/2021 - 12/12/2021". Occupancy would be at an instant in time, while admissions would be during a period. While I suppose you could have average occupancy during a period, it wouldn't be very useful when numbers are going up and down.

And there's something strange about the population figures. If you add up the four categories you get 52,431,181 but according to Wiipedia the population of Italy is 60,317,116 estimated in 2020, (or 59,433,744 from 2011 census). Where are the remaining 7 million? (Unless they're vaccinated exactly 4 months!!).
Children not eligible for vaccination?
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:32 pm

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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:42 pm

Martin_B wrote:
Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:11 am
Millennie Al wrote:
Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:27 am
shpalman wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:05 pm
I wanted to check it was occupancy not admissions.
I think it must be admissions because of the label "12/11/2021 - 12/12/2021". Occupancy would be at an instant in time, while admissions would be during a period. While I suppose you could have average occupancy during a period, it wouldn't be very useful when numbers are going up and down.

And there's something strange about the population figures. If you add up the four categories you get 52,431,181 but according to Wiipedia the population of Italy is 60,317,116 estimated in 2020, (or 59,433,744 from 2011 census). Where are the remaining 7 million? (Unless they're vaccinated exactly 4 months!!).
Children not eligible for vaccination?
From the figures at https://www.governo.it/it/cscovid19/report-vaccini/ you can figure out that there are 54 million Italians of age 12 or over, and about 3.4 million children in the 5-11 age range.

It's also possible they're leaving out those who've had only one dose, so as not to confuse things; right now that's about 1.7 million. Maybe it was only 1.6 million when these figures were compiled.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:07 pm

shpalman wrote:
Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:08 pm
... you can see at https://www.governo.it/it/cscovid19/report-vaccini/ and https://lab.gedidigital.it/gedi-visual/ ... ni-italia/ at there are about 1.2 million in the 50-59 age group who haven't had even a single dose yet. Only about 65,000 officially have a recent enough infection for it to count for a Green Pass. The IFR in that age range** is, what, 0.3%? So there'd be about 3,500 deaths.

60-69: 700,000 unvaccinated; only 30,700 official recently recovered. IFR about 1%. So, 6,600 deaths.

70-79: 500,000 unvaccinated; 14,000 official recently survived. IFR about 3%. 14,500 deaths.

80-89: 130,000 unvaccinated; 7,000 survivors. IFR about 10%. 12,500 deaths.

So I make that about 37,000 people just assuming that the covids won't find them or if they do they'll be fine who will turn out to be wrong about that...
Scaling the IFRs in each demographic band by the population in that band I'd estimate an IFR of about 0.015% for the unvaccinated over-50's.
medicalfacts-50vax.jpg
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So the ramp up from 5,000 a day to 17,000 a day who have finally got the f.cking vaccine for f.ck's sake in the week after it was announced that they'd have to, corresponds to about 40,000 over-50's who we could assume are only getting the f.cking vaccine for f.ck's sake because they have to (on top of the ~5,000 a day, i.e. 35,000, who we just getting around to getting the f.cking vaccine for f.ck's sake because y'know they've been really really busy over the past several months).

So I estimate ~600 people not dying, thanks to being obliged to get the vaccine which they otherwise couldn't be bothered with. Maybe ~1100 if you include the just-getting-around-to-it anyway. Other factors pushing people to finally get vaccinated of course might be the new Omicron wave and the experience of trying to get a test over the recent holiday period.

(Current 7-day average in Italy is 264 deaths per day and rising, but not obviously rising in the way that cases have been.)
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:23 pm

FB_IMG_1642526380498.jpg
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Monthly admissions to intensive care in Italy, absolute numbers, by vaccination status.

If everyone would be vaccinated and boosted there'd hardly be anyone in there.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Sciolus » Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:44 pm

Is that admissions for covid? Presumably they are still admitting more-or-less the baseline level of non-covid patients too?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:55 pm

Sciolus wrote:
Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:44 pm
Is that admissions for covid? Presumably they are still admitting more-or-less the baseline level of non-covid patients too?
It's probably admissions for and with covid, not including non-covid, but I know that some non-covid stuff is being postponed where possible and that the expo hospitals are being started up again. The only reason some regions were making it look like the percentage occupancy of ICU beds wasn't increasing too quickly was that they were making more beds available for covid as we went along. But as you can see in the last column here some regions don't have any more intensive care beds (PL for "posti letto") "activatable".
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:14 pm

The new "nuova" Novavax Nuvaxovid vaccine for novaxxers is available in Lombardy* so that anyone who didn't want to take that new experimental technology which has only been given to about 90% of the population of Europe in the meantime can have something even newer and more experimental except based on older technology.

* - except Lombardy isn't giving people a choice about which one they get, for anyone who's showing up to get a first dose only now.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sun Jul 10, 2022 12:04 pm

Italy is setting up to give a fourth dose to anyone 60 or older. There may not be huge take up though.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sat Aug 06, 2022 4:41 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:14 pm
The new "nuova" Novavax Nuvaxovid vaccine for novaxxers is available in Lombardy* so that anyone who didn't want to take that new experimental technology which has only been given to about 90% of the population of Europe in the meantime can have something even newer and more experimental except based on older technology.

* - except Lombardy isn't giving people a choice about which one they get, for anyone who's showing up to get a first dose only now.
Although, it's only now that 100 NOVAVAX doses show up as having been distributed in Italy on the Italian government covid vaccination website.
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