Vaccine rollout in Italy

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Herainestold
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Herainestold » Sun Jan 03, 2021 7:19 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:43 pm
The pharmacists here were all on a course in November so that they'd be qualified to vaccinate people against covid but it got interrupted by covid.
Brings up an interesting point. Just who is qualified to vaccinate people? How does it compare with the UK?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sun Jan 03, 2021 7:45 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 7:19 pm
shpalman wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:43 pm
The pharmacists here were all on a course in November so that they'd be qualified to vaccinate people against covid but it got interrupted by covid.
Brings up an interesting point. Just who is qualified to vaccinate people? How does it compare with the UK?
Doctors and nurses can do it. Pharmacists can't - which is annoying because they can sell you the 'flu vaccine but then it's up to you to find someone to administer it to you.

There was a suggestion of getting medical students to do it unpaid but for extra credit; however they'd have needed to sign for the fitness of the subject to receive the vaccine. You should obviously pay someone if you expect them to take professional responsibility.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sun Jan 03, 2021 8:29 pm

(but I also want to mention that in Italy you can't even buy ibuprofen in the supermarket, and pharmacists are very protective of their little cartel while they sell homeopathy alongside the proper medicine, and they take it in turns about which one in the area has to stay open instead of taking a three hour lunch break that day.)

(you can at least buy OTC medicines in a "parapharmacy" attached to a supermarket as long as there's a registered pharmacist there but damn they had to by dragged kicking and screaming into agreeing to that.)
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sun Jan 03, 2021 9:37 pm

Lombardy did 693 people today! Good job another 80,000 vaccines will arrive tomorrow.

i DiDN't WanT To caLL aNYONE bAcK fROm HoLIDAY yeah well the rest of the country did more than 60,000 today and I'm sure the health services in all the other regions would have felt like a holiday after the second wave too.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by sTeamTraen » Sun Jan 03, 2021 9:39 pm

France (sorry if this is a derail, but I guess we probably don't want 195 threads on national rollouts) is only just starting to vaccinate, but I'm optimistic that once they get going they will be able to handle the scaling-up well. As of a couple of years ago you can get a flu vaccine in a pharmacy in France if you are in the risk category (typically over 60), and without the need for a prescription. French pharmacists are highly trained(*) and had been calling for that for ages. I don't know if the mRNA viruses are suitable for administration this way, but the AZ one probably is.

Also, the pharmacy network is extensive and in rural areas is considered an essential part of community cohesion. There was an incident near us a few years back where the mayor of a small town refused to open the mairie so people could vote on election day because the town had been turned down for a subsidy to keep the pharmacy open.

(*) Almost everyone in healthcare in France, including people like physiotherapists, starts in 1st year medical school; you then get weeded out along the way, and the higher the level you pass at, the more choice you get of what you want to do; many dentists are failed doctors, like Oxbridge rejects ending up at Durham.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:00 am

shpalman wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 9:37 pm
Lombardy did 693 people today! Good job another 80,000 vaccines will arrive tomorrow.

i DiDN't WanT To caLL aNYONE bAcK fROm HoLIDAY yeah well the rest of the country did more than 60,000 today and I'm sure the health services in all the other regions would have felt like a holiday after the second wave too.
Giulio Gallera, who actually said that thing above about holidays, has had the rest of the Lega distance themselves from what he said

(He's the Welfare "minister" of the region of Lombardy, I think he's the one who wrongly claimed he didn't have the authority order a Red Zone in Bergamo at the beginning of the first wave; he was corrected on that in a live TV interview.)

The number of first doses given in Lombardy as of last night is actually 3126, by the way (Como worked on Sunday at least). Another 88,920 doses should arrive in the region today so even a target of 10,000 a day is too slow.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:21 am

As of yesterday Bergamo hadn't even started but they're thinking of coming in extra early tomorrow.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:34 pm

Giulio Gallera is the one who explained an R of 0.5 by saying that to get infected he'd need to have contact with two infected people.

Anyway, what did I say, that there was a target of 10,000 a day in Lombardy? With maybe starting at 6,000 a day and ramping up?

Well they seem to have done 900 today.

Although I've noticed that the figures get updated quite late overnight so maybe another few thousand will show up...
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:30 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:34 pm
Giulio Gallera is the one who explained an R of 0.5 by saying that to get infected he'd need to have contact with two infected people.

Anyway, what did I say, that there was a target of 10,000 a day in Lombardy? With maybe starting at 6,000 a day and ramping up?

Well they seem to have done 900 today.

Although I've noticed that the figures get updated quite late overnight so maybe another few thousand will show up...
Well they did, but Lombardy has still done less than 4000 today and still have 90% of last week's doses left.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Tue Jan 05, 2021 7:23 am

shpalman wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:30 pm
shpalman wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:34 pm
Giulio Gallera is the one who explained an R of 0.5 by saying that to get infected he'd need to have contact with two infected people.

Anyway, what did I say, that there was a target of 10,000 a day in Lombardy? With maybe starting at 6,000 a day and ramping up?

Well they seem to have done 900 today.

Although I've noticed that the figures get updated quite late overnight so maybe another few thousand will show up...
Well they did, but Lombardy has still done less than 4000 today and still have 90% of last week's doses left.
When the data had finished coming in overnight it turned out that Lombardy had done 6000 yesterday.

This is a region with a population of 10 million and I don't know how long it will take to get through everyone working in the health service like this, let alone the 740,000 who are >80.

They might be waiting for the Oxford vaccine before starting a more comprehensive rollout though.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:04 pm

FB_IMG_1609846476630.jpg
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There's 600,000 working in the health service in Italy (100,000 in Lombardy) to add to the 740,000 over-80 so that will need >100,000 doses per week now and then >200,000 per week once the first lot also need second doses.

The Moderna vaccine should start to become available after its approval tomorrow but the limit here right now is certainly not the availability of the Pfizer vaccine (as of last night Italy had only given 37.3% of the doses it had from last week).

There's 2.2 million in the 60—79 range and I'm not going to try to estimate how many are in the high-priority or at-risk groups but it'll probably need to be half a million a week.

I'm curious about whether they'll work all through August and also whether I'll be included as a low-priority educational worker (I would hope so, if they then expect me to give face-to-face teaching in September).
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:08 pm

60,000 of the wrong sort of syringe arrived in Pavia.

Gallera's job is not looking very secure.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:49 am

Lombardy seems to have done about 8,000 yesterday, which given that their weekly allocation is about 80,000, is much more reasonable. Today's probably going to be quieter since it's a holiday but the target would be 10,000 per day of Pfizer doses. It's also true that this week's allocation doesn't seem to have arrived yet, some regions might have to slow down since they've already used >70% of it (Veneto and Lazio, for example). Hell even Campania (where Napoli is) has used 70% of its doses... (the national average is 54.1%).

Comparable to Lombardy (~20% of doses used) there's only Calabria and Sardinia.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Wed Jan 06, 2021 2:23 pm

Some of this week's doses should be arriving, but not all of them. The dashboard hasn't been updated to show it. So far I've found it's better to wait until the following morning because the day's data gets updated after midnight. Italy seems to be second only to Germany in the EU in terms of doses given, but without MOAR DASHBOARDS I'm not going to try tracking all countries such that I can also compare them in terms of the sizes of their populations.

(Italy has currently given 54.4% of the doses it received last week but Lazio and Tuscany are >75%.)

Anyway here's some new news which was just on the news which I want to make a note of in this thread: news of a new more ambitious vaccination timetable news.
new-plan-jan6th.jpg
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Compare the schedule we had in this post from, er, yesterday:
shpalman wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:04 pm
[some numbers which were probably wrong at the time since I mixed up the populations of Lombardy and Italy as a whole and are certainly invalid now, although I'll keep the estimate of 600,000 health workers in the whole of Italy, of which 100,000 in Lombardy]
(blogging these contradictory plans is why there is this thread)

Yesterday's plan would have needed about 60,000 first doses a day and then 120,000 first and second doses a day in Jan-Mar in the whole of Italy (just divide by 6 to get Lombardy).

Today's plan is given in terms of numbers of double-doses rather then who's going to get them but 5.9 million Jan-Mar (enough for the whole health service plus the 5 million >=80 plus I suppose 300,000 "at risk" in some way) is about 5.5 million in the next 12 weeks so about 66,000 per day doubling to 130,000 per day once second doses are also needed.

Then it seems like the plan is to cover everyone >65 in April... that would require accelerating to about 500,000 doses per day (first and second doses) and maintaining this through May (of course I'm not really taking into account that as the rate of first doses increases, the rate of second doses you need to give is going to catch up with you a few weeks later).

It's going to end up needing to be 900,000 per day if they then want to finish all the adults before the start of August, or 700,000 per day if they're going to work through August.

Well, join us tomorrow when there'll be a completely different plan.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Wed Jan 06, 2021 6:07 pm

Italy expects to get 100,000 doses of the Moderna vaccine in January, then 600,000 in February and another 600,000 in March.

224,000 doses of this week's Pfizer one are late and should arrive tomorrow but 215,475 did arrive.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Wed Jan 06, 2021 6:17 pm

Might as well put this here; while tomorrow and Friday will be Yellow for the whole of Italy and the weekend will be entirely Orange, after that the Yellow/Orange/Red level of each region will be defined according to its R (and we'll find out tomorrow).

R < 1 means Yellow; 1 < R < 1.25 mean Orange; R > 1.25 means Red.

I don't remember if I defined the zones in some other thread, it doesn't really make much difference to me which one I'm in since I can always do the things I need to do and can't ever do the things I want to do either way.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:03 pm

Image

... and normalized for population

Image

The UK would be at 1.39 on that scale as of [i[last[/i] week, see https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Fri Jan 08, 2021 6:11 pm

Italy's Rt is apparently 1.03, with Lombardy at 1.22, so it's Orange for us next week. (The weekend was always going to be Orange across the whole nation.)

Nearly 90,000 vaccine doses were given yesterday, of which more than 10,000 in Lombardy.

Next week this should get faster.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sat Jan 09, 2021 8:31 am

lpm wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 10:40 am
Wow, the UK is now behind Italy and Spain in vaccinations per day (per million population).

How is it possible to be worse than Italy and Spain at arranging stuff? Italy hasn't even arranged commonly-agreed driving rules for cars yet.
Over 90,000 yesterday too, corresponding to about 1,500 per million per day.

But Italy is still mainly working its way through the ~1% of the population who work in the health service: of the 504,587 done so far, 57,015 are "non health-service" and only 31,279 are residents of care homes or similar.

Lombardy's 11,840 only counts as 1,177 per million per day, but Emilia-Romagna and Veneto both managed about 10,000 each yesterday and those regions are half the size so that's 2,326 and 2,039 per million per day respectively. It's just Lombardy dragging the national average down; it remains the region which has used the lowest proportion of the doses received (apart from South Tyrol).

Moratti will get Gallera's job.

And driving in Italy, like almost everything in Italy, is a far more interesting and fulfilling experience than its UK equivalent.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:19 pm

As of about 2.5 hours ago, Lombardy had given 58,454 doses while Campania (where Napoli is) had given 60,001.

The difference is this corresponds to 89.5% of the doses which Campania received, and respectively 38.0% of the doses which Lombardy received, because Campania has a population of about 5.8 million (instead of 10 million).

So some regions are maybe having to slow down a bit since they're using up all their doses while Lombardy, which got the most doses because it has the most people, is barely halfway through what it got so far.

I hope that next week's supplies arrive on time so that they can keep going and I also hope that Lombardy will properly get going next week.

http://bit.ly/DashboardVacciniantiCovid19
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:43 pm

The numbers as of an hour ago obviously haven't been fully updated for the day, but some regions (Campania, Tuscany, Umbria, Valle d'Aosta and Veneto) have practically used up all their doses; Umbria has even been managing to get six doses out of a phial instead of just five so their usage stat is more than 100%.

When Lombardy's number gets fully updated I expect it to be about 65% of the received doses - it's only 55% now. Actually the region should have gone even faster today as compared to last week so we'll see if that's the case.

I hope some more doses arrived today though.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:25 pm

A small truck of ~7000 Moderna vaccine doses arrived today for some reason. We're already way beyond the symbolic vaccination of a few photogenic doctors, we should be talking about half a million doses a week. (The next batch of Pfizer ones is in Italy somewhere.)

The ReiThera one might be ready "June-July". Link in Italian to someone in a white coat saying it so it must be true. He reckons that Italy will be produce 100 million doses and be self-sufficient.

This is based it having worked in Phase I and the Phase II trial has just started so... yeah...
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:15 pm

Italy's numbers aren't showing that yesterday was suddenly much faster. About 800,000 have been done here, out of 1.4 million doses received (assuming five doses per phial but some regions have been able to get six doses out).
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:04 am

Yesterday was faster in Lombardy though - a rate of 2215 per 100,000 against 1562 per 100,000 for the whole country. Lombardy is slowly climbing up the table of % of doses used.

Still not as high as the UK's rate, which is actually quite impressive.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Fri Jan 15, 2021 10:37 pm

Lombardy did about 20,000 today too and has now used nearly 70% of its doses so is catching up with the national average. Italy has vaccinated more than a million in total so far, in about 2 weeks of doing it properly (following the few couple of days of faffing about).

Half a million first doses a week is about right*, assuming that in a week's time they'll be able to also start giving half a million second doses a week.

(* - for the end-of-March target of 5.9 million having received both doses)
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