Vaccine rollout in Italy

[shpalman]

Italy-maps-cases-vax-Nov2021.jpg (78.56 KiB) Viewed 2835 times

Comparing https://lab.gedidigital.it/gedi-visual/ ... ni-italia/ and https://www.citypopulation.de/en/italy/covid/ (to get the latter at the regional level you have to click on one of the names of the region and then zoom out; couldn't figure out how to just tell the map to do it otherwise).

[shpalman]

The Italian vaccination dashboard at https://www.governo.it/it/cscovid19/report-vaccini/ has added the total number of people over 12 who have recovered from covid within the past six months. These would be have a Green Pass from previous infection. It's only about 362,000.

[shpalman]

As of today everyone over 18 (in Lombardy at least) can book their booster for at least 5 months after their second dose.

[sTeamTraen]

To the list of Italians who will be getting the vaccine shortly can be added the name of Lorenzo Damiano, a leading anti-vaxxer who, er, got hospitalised with Covid.

[shpalman]

To the list of Italians who will be getting the vaccine shortly can be added the name of Lorenzo Damiano, a leading anti-vaxxer who, er, got hospitalised with Covid.

Yes, this f.cker:

anti-vax f.cker is now in favour of vaccines having just got out of hospital following a covid infection

[shpalman]

Some figures were on the news just now regarding last month:

Patients taken to intensive care: 546 unvaccinated, 272 vaccinated. Normalized, that's 10/100,000 and 1.6/100,000 respectively.

Deaths: 515 non vaccinated, 690 vaccinated . That's 13/100,000 and 3.4/100,000 respectively.

Outcomes for unvaccinated vs. fully vaccinated, week by week:

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Top left is cases, top right is admissions to hospital;
Bottom left is admissions to intensive care, bottom right is deaths.

All normalized per 100,000 inhabitants.

[shpalman]

Como* hospital has reopened 8 beds of covid ICU facility. There are 2 vaccinated patients (two doses) and 5 not vaccinated, of which the youngest is 47. (The oldest patient is 74, doesn't say whether he's one of the vaccinated ones or not.)

In total there are 66 covid patients there, they could make more beds available if things keep getting worse. Since Lombardy still has more than 600,000 over the age of 40 who aren't vaccinated we'll soon be needing them.

* - I don't know which moron decided that the big new out-of-town hospital should have the same name as the big old edge-of-town hospital, but they're both called "St. Anna". It's only pretending to actually be in Como for the sake of the birth certificates of anyone born in it.

By the way, note that the figures reported at AGENAS which the government uses to judge the occupancy for the Zone rules, are based on the declared capacity for covid patients and not all the beds that there are.

[shpalman]

Lombardy is managing to stay in White Zone conditions by adding more beds to its intensive and non-critical covid provisions but will probably have to let it go soon such that we'll be Yellow after Christmas.

We had 10,569 new cases reported today (population 10 million, so ~1000 per million per day); the 7-day case rate is about 440/100,000 but it was half that 7 days ago.

Anyway,

"Le persone non vaccinate neoinfettate sono superiori al 40%. Però è un 40% che rappresenta il 15% della popolazione. Quindi una percentuale molto alta di persone no vax che sono infettate".

40% of the new infections are in the unvaccinated, but that's 40% which represents 15% of the population. So that's...



... a really high percentage of no-vaxxers who are infected.

Just using today's ~10,000 as an example we could say 40%*10,000/(15%*10 million) = 2,700 per million per day in the no-vax vs. 60%*10,000/(85%*10 million) = 700 per million per day in the vaxxed.

So about 4 times less likely to catch teh covids if vaxxed?

[jdc]

I make it a VE of 74.074%

[shpalman]

I make it a VE of 74.074%

Yes, about 74%, there's no sense in going to 5 significant figures when Fontana barely went to 2 sig figs in his original statement.

[(40%/15%)-(60%/85%)]/(40%/15%) = 73.5%

[shpalman]

Looking like we're going to get no street parties, Green Pass validity of 6 months,* FFP2 masks on public transport**

* - instead of 9 months; third doses available after 4 months instead of 5.

** - and possibly in certain indoor locations; ordinary masks will be required everywhere outside.

For visiting care homes and discos, either three doses or two doses plus negative test. This latter doesn't make much sense to me, because someone who's recently had their second dose is probably just as protected as someone who had their second dose ages ago but just had their third. So it should already be covered by the Super Green Pass from a recent-enough vaccination (as long as it wasn't the first one).

[shpalman]

the Guardian is reporting it similarly but differently

[shpalman]

Actually I think they just decided to close parties and discos until the end of January.

[Herainestold]

Actually I think they just decided to close parties and discos until the end of January.

Seems like a good decision. Is exuberant (non-disco) dancing still allowed?

[shpalman]

Actually I think they just decided to close parties and discos until the end of January.

Seems like a good decision. Is exuberant (non-disco) dancing still allowed?

It'll probably be table service only.

[Herainestold]

Actually I think they just decided to close parties and discos until the end of January.

Seems like a good decision. Is exuberant (non-disco) dancing still allowed?

It'll probably be table service only.

So table dancing is okay? Have to like that.

[shpalman]

Things are going a bit nuts in Lombardy, and Milan especially. Visualization by province annoyingly quantified in cases/100,000/day averaged over the past 14 days, so not exactly comparable to the cases/100.000/week averaged over 7 days which I use to be compatible with the UK reporting.

Today's case numbers are of course a shock because there's catchup from low numbers yesterday and the day before; but Lombardy was at about 700-something/100,000/week until today and we're at about 950/100,000/week today. The test positive rate was about 4% last week, it's around 12-13% now. However, there's also a "cases tested" figure as well as a "swabs carried out" figure - and the positive rate according to "cases tested" was about 20-30% and is now more like 70%. This figure was originally included so that the same person getting multiple tests would only count once (for example, a previously infected person getting tested until they finally show up negative) but I'm not sure how to interpret this in terms of rapid tests and PCR. If it's the number of people getting PCR tests, then there will be a lot of people who tested positive on a rapid test and are getting a PCR to confirm.

Alternatively, Milan was at 1000/100,000/week and is now at 1270/100,000/week. Testing data isn't available at the province level, or at least not to me in the csv files from the git.

Como on the other hand is a bit lower than the Lombardy average.

1.5% of the population of Lombardy is officially covid-positive, against 1% on average in Italy.

[shpalman]

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[shpalman]

Slightly weird-looking official Lombardy covid dashboard

[bob sterman]

So there's one less vocal anti-vaxxer in Italy...

Self-Proclaimed ‘Plague Spreader’ Dies of COVID After Boasting About Maskless Grocery Store Stunt
https://www.thedailybeast.com/maurizio- ... tore-stunt

[shpalman]

So there's one less vocal anti-vaxxer in Italy...

Self-Proclaimed ‘Plague Spreader’ Dies of COVID After Boasting About Maskless Grocery Store Stunt
https://www.thedailybeast.com/maurizio- ... tore-stunt

That looks like the f.cker I'd posted about in the fuckery thread. f.ck him and all the "what about all the deaths from the vaccine though" f.ckers.

[shpalman]

Well at least we have a control group, so we can see how well the vaccines work.

Various visualizations are available at Il Sole 24 Ore including comparisons of case rates, death rates...

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monthly-deaths-per-million.png (41.69 KiB) Viewed 2448 times

[shpalman]

... hospital occupancy,* and admissions to intensive care between the vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts of the population:

monthly-hospital-occupancy-per-100000.png (39.68 KiB) Viewed 2448 times

monthly-admisstions-to-ICU-per-million.png (41.4 KiB) Viewed 2448 times

* - I think this is occupancy rather than admissions - it says "hospitalizations" (ospedalizzazioni) but the word for for people admitted to hospital would be recoveri confusingly enough. I'll have to see if I can find their data source because the csv files I look at aren't broken down by vaccinated/nonvaccinated.

[shpalman]

127,000 new cases reported in Italy today; 39,000 in Lombardy.

Italy has also changed the rules so that the country won't shut down because well-vaccinated people in self-isolation after contact with positives.

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Someone who's had close contact with a positive case; if they've:
had two vaccine doses but the second was more than 4 months ago, 5 days of self-isolation;
had the booster (or the second dose within 4 months), no self-isolation but 5 days of "self-monitoring";
not been vaccinated, 10 days of self-isolation.

In each case, a negative test is required at the end of the period of self-whatever.

[shpalman]

There are some rules about FFP2 too, and from the 10th of January the unvaccinated will hardly be able to do anything even with a negative test.