Vaccine rollout in Italy

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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Wed Mar 10, 2021 4:48 pm

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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Thu Mar 11, 2021 10:08 am

I just got an SMS from the Niguarda Hospital in north Milan, with a link to the vaccine reservation website.

I went straight on it and asked for 10am on Monday morning, which I think is the earliest I want to reasonably get there by car.

(I think they have a capacity of 400-500 per day).
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Thu Mar 11, 2021 10:35 am

Oh of course we got an email from our administration saying that we have to fill in and take with us the attached consent form, which wasn't attached to the email...
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:06 am

(The mail was immediately re-sent with the attachment).

I've just noticed that the road which runs around the north of the hospital is named for Ettore Majorana.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Thu Mar 11, 2021 12:47 pm

The AIFA has also put a block on a batch of the AZ vaccine in Italy as a precaution because I think someone died in Sicily.

(also, Denmark)

There are of course millions of people who have received the vaccine who are fine and out of millions of people of course some are just going to die anyway.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:53 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 12:47 pm
The AIFA has also put a block on a batch of the AZ vaccine in Italy as a precaution because I think someone died in Sicily.
Two deaths in Sicily actually:

It's the ABV2856 batch. https://www.aifa.gov.it/-/aifa-dispone- ... to-con-ema

Stefano Paternò,43 years old, miltary person. Cardiac arrest 12 hours after being vaccinated in the night between Tuesday and Wednesday.

Davide Villa, policeman, died on the 7th of March 12 days after being vaccinated, having fallen ill the day after, with deep vein thrombosis and eventually a cerebral haemorrhage.

http://www.strettoweb.com/2021/03/sicil ... a/1143127/

So we aren't really talking about older people or subjects in ill health.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:06 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:53 pm
shpalman wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 12:47 pm
The AIFA has also put a block on a batch of the AZ vaccine in Italy as a precaution because I think someone died in Sicily.
Two deaths in Sicily actually:

It's the ABV2856 batch. https://www.aifa.gov.it/-/aifa-dispone- ... to-con-ema

Stefano Paternò,43 years old, miltary person. Cardiac arrest 12 hours after being vaccinated in the night between Tuesday and Wednesday.

Davide Villa, policeman, died on the 7th of March 12 days after being vaccinated, having fallen ill the day after, with deep vein thrombosis and eventually a cerebral haemorrhage.

http://www.strettoweb.com/2021/03/sicil ... a/1143127/

So we aren't really talking about older people or subjects in ill health.
There was also Giuseppe Maniscalco, carabiniere, 54.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by sTeamTraen » Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:40 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 12:47 pm
There are of course millions of people who have received the vaccine who are fine and out of millions of people of course some are just going to die anyway.
When I was 10 or 11 I was into very nerdy trivia (cue various family members saying "was??"), and someone bought me a book of "Useless Facts and Figures" for Christmas. For some reason, one fact that stuck with me was under the heading "Things carrying a one in a million chance of death". There were various accident statistics, some of them quite obscure, but this is what I remember: "Being a man aged 60 for 15 minutes". (By coincidence, I am now a man aged 60.)

You can do a lot of quick calculations with this. For example, using the simplification that 1-((1-n)^m) is close to 1-(m*n) for small n, and taking advantage of the fact that there are 96 quarter-hours in the day, we can divide that million by 100 and find that a man aged 60 for one day has a 1 in 10,000 chance of death. Or, put another way, if you have 10,000 men aged 60, you can expect one to keel over every day, and you shouldn't start to worry if 2 or 3 die on the same day. That figure of 10,000 can be and halved/doubled for every decade that the men are older/younger, and multiplied by about 1.5 if they are women. See also here.
Last edited by sTeamTraen on Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:41 pm

(This is out of fewer than 26,000 members of the armed forces or forces of law & order vaccinated so far in Sicily; 47,300 teachers etc. have also been vaccinated in that region. So about 73,000 AZ doses given so far in total there. I don't know how many of the ~700,000 men between the ages of 40 and 60 just die every day like that, especially controlling for similar health status which I assume for police or military is better than average.)
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:53 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:40 pm
shpalman wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 12:47 pm
There are of course millions of people who have received the vaccine who are fine and out of millions of people of course some are just going to die anyway.
When I was 10 or 11 I was into very nerdy trivia (cue various family members saying "was??"), and someone bought me a book of "Useless Facts and Figures" for Christmas. For some reason, one fact that stuck with me was under the heading "Things carrying a one in a million chance of death". There were various accident statistics, some of them quite obscure, but this is what I remember: "Being a man aged 60 for 15 minutes". (By coincidence, I am now a man aged 60.)

You can do a lot of quick calculations with this. For example, using the simplification that 1-((1-n)^m) is close to 1-(m*n) for small n, and taking advantage of the fact that there are 96 quarter-hours in the day, we can divide that million by 100 and find that a man aged 60 for one day has a 1 in 10,000 chance of death. Or, put another way, if you have 10,000 men aged 60, you can expect one to keel over every day, and you shouldn't start to worry if 2 or 3 die on the same day. That figure of 10,000 can be and halved/doubled for every decade that the men are older/younger, and multiplied by about 1.5 if they are women. See also here.
So maybe 1 death per day out of the 26,000 vaccinated military personnel at age around 50 isn't unreasonable.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Thu Mar 11, 2021 7:04 pm

Apparently that batch with the stop on it corresponds to 500,000 doses, and Italy has only received 1.5 million AZ doses in total (and used 667,000 of them), so this might well mess up next week's rollout while they sort this out...
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Millennie Al » Fri Mar 12, 2021 3:41 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:40 pm
When I was 10 or 11 I was into very nerdy trivia (cue various family members saying "was??"), and someone bought me a book of "Useless Facts and Figures" for Christmas. For some reason, one fact that stuck with me was under the heading "Things carrying a one in a million chance of death".
Did you know that this has a name, the micromort (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micromort)?
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Fri Mar 12, 2021 12:07 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 7:04 pm
Apparently that batch with the stop on it corresponds to 500,000 doses, and Italy has only received 1.5 million AZ doses in total (and used 667,000 of them), so this might well mess up next week's rollout while they sort this out...
Ok apparently there are only a few thousand doses left from that batch, most have already been administered.

Meanwhile #EURollout AZ is only going to deliver about a third of the doses it said it would this quarter.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sat Mar 13, 2021 12:15 pm

AIFA approved the Johnson & Johnson vaccine yesterday, so if it goes as normal, that will be another ~7 million doses which mostly won't arrive.

Italy has at least reached a rhythm of over 200,000 doses per day. Even Lombardy is managing about 35,000 a day which corresponds to matching the national rate per person.

I did hear that the other day, at the Niguarda hospital (the one I'm supposed to go to on Monday morning) they invited ~800 over-80's for their vaccinations despite only having timeslots for 500. So a whole bunch of people were there all day and then sent home.

The regional government is a bit sh.t to be honest, but then it's right-wing populists.

(Lombardy has administered about 83% of the delivered doses, against a national average of 90%, and the national average would be even better if Lombardy as the most populous region weren't dragging it down.)
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sat Mar 13, 2021 12:35 pm

(correction: it's actually 26 million doses which Johnson & Johnson can now fail to deliver)
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sat Mar 13, 2021 3:59 pm

This says that 1,100 people in Como have been vaccinated by the now recalled batch of AstraZeneca vaccine, 90% of whom were non-hospital health workers during the second half of February. About 50 would have been forces of law and order, vaccinated at the beginning of this month. No serious adverse effects have been reported although some of the health workers report the usual fever, tiredness, achiness etc.

In Lombardy there were 40,000 doses in total from that batch, 31,000 have been administered, the remaining 9,000 have been sent to AIFA. It shouldn't hold up the local rollout.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:05 pm

(The plan is back to the original one of aiming to vaccinate everyone by [the end of] September; the vaccines just won't be arriving fast enough to meet the optimistic target of doing everyone by the end of June.)
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Herainestold » Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:54 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:05 pm
(The plan is back to the original one of aiming to vaccinate everyone by [the end of] September; the vaccines just won't be arriving fast enough to meet the optimistic target of doing everyone by the end of June.)

EU should not have allowed export of so many vaccines. Is Italy trying to get the Sputnik vacine?

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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:58 pm

Italy is interested in Sputnik V, of course it needs EMA and then AIFA approval.

The arrival of another half million AstraZeneca doses has been registered on the Report Vaccini Anti COVID-19; that really isn't the excuse for why Lombardy is lagging behind the rest of Italy.

The Johnson & Johnson one is now approved here but I don't know if there's any plan to have doses of that before the end of March.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Herainestold » Sat Mar 13, 2021 8:02 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:58 pm
Italy is interested in Sputnik V, of course it needs EMA and then AIFA approval.

The arrival of another half million AstraZeneca doses has been registered on the Report Vaccini Anti COVID-19; that really isn't the excuse for why Lombardy is lagging behind the rest of Italy.

The Johnson & Johnson one is now approved here but I don't know if there's any plan to have doses of that before the end of March.
J&J is having production problems like everyone else. America is sitting on 20 million AZ doses that haven't been distributed because it has not gained approval there. Pfizer and Moderna are turning out sh.t loads of doses in the US, that are ineligible for export.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Millennie Al » Sun Mar 14, 2021 3:58 am

Herainestold wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 8:02 pm
J&J is having production problems like everyone else. America is sitting on 20 million AZ doses that haven't been distributed because it has not gained approval there. Pfizer and Moderna are turning out sh.t loads of doses in the US, that are ineligible for export.
From a global perspective, it's completely unacceptable to hold on to doses without using them. Everyone benefits from every dose administred as it makes it harder for the virus to spread.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Herainestold » Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:11 am

Millennie Al wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 3:58 am
Herainestold wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 8:02 pm
J&J is having production problems like everyone else. America is sitting on 20 million AZ doses that haven't been distributed because it has not gained approval there. Pfizer and Moderna are turning out sh.t loads of doses in the US, that are ineligible for export.
From a global perspective, it's completely unacceptable to hold on to doses without using them. Everyone benefits from every dose administred as it makes it harder for the virus to spread.
Tell that to Mr Biden. To be fair, they do intend to use them, but at the rate Pfizer and Moderna are going, they probably don't need them.
AZ has a contract to supply Canada with 20 million doses from the US, but the current production in the US is all for the American market, even though AZ doesnt have approval in the US. Canada can't get the AZ doses from anywhere else because of production shortfalls.

In Europe a supplier in the Netherlands is making AZ doses, but the facility has not been approved by the EU

AstraZeneca’s struggle to ramp up vaccine supplies to the EU is partly because of the failure of one of the company’s key European manufacturing sites to deliver any doses to the bloc six months after the supply contract was agreed.

The Dutch factory, run by subcontractor Halix, is yet to receive EU regulatory approval to supply the region even though it was named in the deal signed between AstraZeneca and the European Commission in August.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sun Mar 14, 2021 4:28 pm

Apparently Piemonte is suspending the use of an AstraZeneca batch over the death of a teacher.

https://www.corriere.it/salute/cardiolo ... 6bc0.shtml

(it was originally going to be a stop to the whole AstraZeneca rollout but the decision was modified)
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Herainestold » Sun Mar 14, 2021 7:06 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 4:28 pm
Apparently Piemonte is suspending the use of an AstraZeneca batch over the death of a teacher.

https://www.corriere.it/salute/cardiolo ... 6bc0.shtml

(it was originally going to be a stop to the whole AstraZeneca rollout but the decision was modified)
Glad I got my AZ dose before all this sh.t hit the fan and I changed my mind.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:28 am

I'm just glad I managed to get my dose without the carabinieri coming to sieze them all.
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