Vaccine rollout in Italy

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
Post Reply


User avatar
shpalman
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3940
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Mon Mar 15, 2021 5:58 pm

It won't; they're so much further along.

Unless of course they start to see similar adverse reactions when they get to the 40-49 range and it sets people off.
molto tricky

Herainestold
Catbabel
Posts: 804
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Herainestold » Mon Mar 15, 2021 6:24 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 5:58 pm
It won't; they're so much further along.

Unless of course they start to see similar adverse reactions when they get to the 40-49 range and it sets people off.
As you get to younger age cohorts wouldn't you expect to see fewer adverse effects?

User avatar
shpalman
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3940
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Mon Mar 15, 2021 6:36 pm

... which is why these adverse effects in that slightly lower age range stand out.
molto tricky

User avatar
Grumble
After Pie
Posts: 1905
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Grumble » Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:22 am

shpalman wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 6:36 pm
... which is why these adverse effects in that slightly lower age range stand out.
A few weeks ago the criticism of AZ was that they hadn’t included enough older cohorts in their study.
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

User avatar
shpalman
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3940
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:39 am

Grumble wrote:
Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:22 am
shpalman wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 6:36 pm
... which is why these adverse effects in that slightly lower age range stand out.
A few weeks ago the criticism of AZ was that they hadn’t included enough older cohorts in their study.
Which is why they were rolling it out to people my age (who are police/military/teachers etc.).

Meanwhile ~90% of the deaths around here are in the oldest demographics and Lombardy's roll out to them remains a bit sh.t (compared to the rest of Italy which is more or less in line with the EU).

Part of the shitness of the rollout to >80's is issues with AIFA not originally recommending the AstraZeneca vaccine for them (due to lack of efficacy data) and the slow arrival of the Pfizer one, but now that the UK did the experiment on its population they'd be able to get the AstraZeneca one if it hadn't just been suspended in most of Europe. The remaining shitness is Lombardy being sh.t.

I'm not against the vaccine, I mean, I had it yesterday just about as soon as I could.

But as Norway said, well it doesn't matter that much about pausing for a couple of days since there aren't enough doses arriving anyway.
molto tricky

User avatar
shpalman
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3940
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Wed Mar 17, 2021 7:31 am

Italy still managed to do more than 180,000 vaccinations yesterday, but then it was only about 140,000 on Monday, so maybe there's lag in that data (I'm using the figures from 6am the next morning) and the lower number from Monday actually corresponds slightly to Sunday and the number from yesterday is partly Monday. (Lombardy ~30,000 both days).

Anyway there were a few days last week at 210,000-220,000 or so (Lombardy ~36,000-37,000). Will need a few more days to see the impact of the AZ pause.
molto tricky

Lydia Gwilt
Stargoon
Posts: 100
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:05 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Lydia Gwilt » Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:29 am

Shpalman, could you tell me which source are you using for the Italian data? All Italy rather than just Lombardia. Your source seems more up to date than the ones I've been using (in FVG).

User avatar
shpalman
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3940
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Wed Mar 17, 2021 12:02 pm

Lydia Gwilt wrote:
Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:29 am
Shpalman, could you tell me which source are you using for the Italian data? All Italy rather than just Lombardia. Your source seems more up to date than the ones I've been using (in FVG).
https://www.governo.it/it/cscovid19/report-vaccini/

It's updated about three times a day, but I usually take the 6am numbers as definitive for the previous day. And I keep a spreadsheet since there doesn't seem to be an obvious way to see a previous day's data. (Apart from Lombardy I've only been keeping my spreadsheet updated for Veneto and Emilia-Romagna since they are neighbouring regions).

There's also a git at https://github.com/italia/covid19-opendata-vaccini but I haven't properly parsed it.

I also look at https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations for comparisons between countries.
molto tricky

Lydia Gwilt
Stargoon
Posts: 100
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:05 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Lydia Gwilt » Thu Mar 18, 2021 10:57 am

THank you very much, that's very helpful.

User avatar
shpalman
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3940
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Thu Mar 18, 2021 5:45 pm

Italy will carry on with the AstraZeneca vaccinations tomorrow.
molto tricky

User avatar
shpalman
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3940
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sat Mar 20, 2021 11:11 am

Estimating 5-10% cancellations here but sites are going to operate "overbooking" (and reserve lists) to make sure doses or slots don't go to waste due to no-shows.

Meanwhile AstraZeneca's latest batch was a bit less than usual but should make up for it within a few days.

Moderna might actually send some.
molto tricky

User avatar
shpalman
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3940
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sun Mar 21, 2021 10:37 am

molto tricky

User avatar
shpalman
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3940
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sun Mar 21, 2021 4:19 pm

molto tricky

User avatar
Grumble
After Pie
Posts: 1905
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Grumble » Sun Mar 21, 2021 8:08 pm

This may be unfair but I have the impression that Italian bureaucracy isn’t the slickest and this doesn’t improve my prejudice.
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

User avatar
shpalman
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3940
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sun Mar 21, 2021 8:12 pm

The north, Lombardy especially, is normally the least "Italian" about this sort of thing.
molto tricky

User avatar
shpalman
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3940
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Tue Mar 23, 2021 6:49 pm

molto tricky


User avatar
shpalman
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3940
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sat Mar 27, 2021 10:45 am

shpalman wrote:
Sat Mar 27, 2021 8:49 am
Italy's current stockpile wouldn't be enough for the next four days so I expect this is generally true across the EU.*

(* - because provision is proportional to population and Italy is following the EU average for the administration of doses.)
I see that another million (or so) doses of Pfizer have been registered on the Italian website for that.

So we've got enough for about a week or so. Pfizer has at least gone very slightly over its target for the end of March.

Note that we've still only had 2.5 million AstraZeneca doses, and the target for the end of March was 4.1 million:
shpalman wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:48 pm
At Raccomandazioni ad interim sui gruppi target della vaccinazione anti-SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 there's a pdf (in Italian) updated about a week ago: http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pubb ... legato.pdf

Pages 12-15 have some numbers on: how many millions* of doses are supposed to arrive (4,165,000 AstraZeneca before the end of March, for example...
This was already less that an estimate which was on the news about 6 weeks ago of 5.3 million by the end of March.

Which means that maybe 3 million will have received both doses of any* vaccine by the end of March, compared to the plan in January of 5.9 million.

Maybe it's because Italians don't love each other enough and nothing to do with the UK bogarting all the f.cking jabs.

(Italy has been managing about a quarter of a million doses per day.)

* either - there's only Pfizer and AstraZeneca, Moderna hardly counts.
molto tricky

User avatar
shpalman
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3940
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sat Mar 27, 2021 11:34 am

Lombardy will start with the over-70's on the 2nd of April.

Well, they'll start letting them make appointments. The vaccinations won't start until after the over-80's are finished, on the 11th of April, "straight after Easter".
molto tricky

User avatar
Grumble
After Pie
Posts: 1905
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Grumble » Sat Mar 27, 2021 11:44 am

As the saying goes, the best vaccine is the one you’re offered. Bonkers to hold out for another one.
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

User avatar
shpalman
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3940
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sat Mar 27, 2021 12:00 pm

There was a plan to set up a mass-vaccination hub in a car park next to a leisure centre on the edge of town, but Bertalaso said "fa schifo" so intead it will be at Villa Erba, which is very nice, assuming you can negotiate the traffic on the narrow lake-village roads.
molto tricky

User avatar
shpalman
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3940
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:59 pm

A whole 'nother 278,400 AstraZeneca doses were delivered today, taking the total so far to 2,752,400.

They're only 1.4 million short compared to what they'd said they'd deliver before the end of the first quarter so I look forward to all those arriving in the next two days.

(That kind of number of missing doses puts us about a week behind, but of course we'd be doing more doses per day if they were arriving).
molto tricky

User avatar
shpalman
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3940
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:00 am

molto tricky

Post Reply