Vaccine rollout in Italy

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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sat Jan 16, 2021 12:05 pm

So wait a minute Europe needs to start giving second doses to people next week and Pfizer has chosen to deliver fewer doses ("29% fewer") while they ramp up capacity? (Italy has given 75% of the received doses so far.)

Well better that they do it this week so that they can be delivering more as of next week I suppose. Technically Italy did start vaccinating on the 27th of December but that was one token box of 9750 doses.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sun Jan 17, 2021 11:49 am

Bit of a weekend dip, maybe also in the reporting, but Italy has now done 1,118,594 first doses, as of late last night which corresponds to about 80% of the doses it has. Slightly fewer are going to arrive next week and about 100,000 will probably need to be second doses.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Tue Jan 19, 2021 6:07 pm

The Italian vaccination counter seems to be broken. Anyway it seems like yesterday was a slow day and today would have been too, because Italy has generally used about 80% of the delivered doses and this week's delivery is going to be less than it should be because of Pfizer pausing slightly in order to ramp up capacity next week.

Meanwhile Moratti, the new health "accessory" in Lombardy replacing Gallera, has said that vaccines should be distributed according to which regions have the highest GDP.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Tue Jan 19, 2021 7:27 pm

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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:59 pm

Italy has now started vaccinating the non-medical non-care-home over-80's. Well, a few regions have.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Thu Jan 21, 2021 10:26 am

Italy has had to slow right down - 40,000 a day - because there's less Pfizer vaccine arriving. Italy has used 77.1% of the doses which have arrived so far.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sun Jan 24, 2021 1:26 pm

As of this morning, Italy had given 1,350,353 doses, and 75,081 people have so far received two doses. This is out of 1,853,475 doses which have been delivered. (I read something about if Italy and other EU countries were indeed able to get six doses out of a phial instead of five thanks to using a more efficient syringe, then Pfizer would increase the price per box of phials by a factor of 6/5... that would be taking the piss a bit.)

Italy should get 405,000 doses of the Pfizer one for the last week of January (about 20% less than originally ordered), and about 66,000 of the Moderna one.

As for the Oxford/AstraZeneca one, something like 2.3 million doses should arrive in the second half of February followed by 1.1 million in the first couple of weeks of March. Assuming of course that it gets EMA approval. But this is still something like 60% less than they originally said they'd be able to produce.

"unacceptable"
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:28 pm

Schedule for the arrival of the next doses:
doses-Italy-2021-01-26.jpg
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:28 pm

shpalman wrote:
Wed Jan 06, 2021 2:23 pm
Image
Italy is now talking about having its own vaccine - the ReiThera one - ready to go in the autumn. Which suggests the plan to have everyone already vaccinated by then has slipped a bit.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:28 pm

this public information "advert" is presumably meant to convince Italians to get themselves vaccinate to save the nice old ladies but to me I'm just left with the impression that old people are creepy and incomprehensible.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:40 pm

Italy to get 20% fewer Moderna vaccines in week starting February 7
“Minutes ago, Moderna told us about the cut in the distribution of its vaccines. In the week beginning Feb. 7, only 132,000 doses will arrive, 20% less than agreed,” Domenico Arcuri said.

Pfizer cut its vaccine delivery to Italy by 29% last week and by 20% this week.

AstraZeneca, whose vaccine is expected to be approved by the European Medicines Agency later on Friday, has already told Italy it would provide only 3.4 million doses in the first three months of distribution instead of the initially promised 16 million.
f.ck's sake.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:20 pm

I'm a bit out of the loop on this.

Is the issue that they haven't been able to ramp up production as quickly as anticipated, or that they're actually reducing production for some reason?

It's interesting that it seems to be affecting multiple companies simultaneously, especially as the manufacturing techniques for the jabs must be reasonably diverse.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:24 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:20 pm
I'm a bit out of the loop on this.

Is the issue that they haven't been able to ramp up production as quickly as anticipated, or that they're actually reducing production for some reason?

It's interesting that it seems to be affecting multiple companies simultaneously, especially as the manufacturing techniques for the jabs must be reasonably diverse.
We know that Pfizer is ramping up production and this means it's producing a bit less in these weeks. Maybe they didn't expect to have to cover so much of the demand on their own.

this link from another thread explains the issues AZ is having.

The others haven't even started producing in large quantities at all yet.

I think nobody has tried to produce any kind of vaccine on this kind of scale before, but still it could be an Anna Karenina problem.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:44 pm

Thanks.

I guess we are in completely unprecedented times in a lot of ways. Politicians and corporations are both heavily incentivised to over-promise, and I'm sure there's all sorts of unforeseen stumbling blocks to encounter. I wonder if I can short the vaccine market?

The President of Portugal is keen not to get people's expectations too high, and has just said "everyone should be vaccinated by the end of next year". I think that's a decent expectation to have, though I'd love to be pleasantly surprised.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:30 am

Italy gave about 100,000 doses on Thursday, and a similar number yesterday. This is roughly as fast as the stocks are arriving, such that the percentage of available doses which have been administered tends to vary between about 70 and 80% during each week.

So yeah, Italy is able to give these vaccines as fast as they arrive, which isn't fast enough, being less than half a million a week at the moment.

2.3 million doses have arrived, 1.8 million doses have been given, 480,000 have received their second dose. Seems like hardly anyone new has been getting their first dose for the past week, since the doses which arrived have all gone towards second doses.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:29 am

Here's the (current) local plan

The population of the province of Como is about 600,000; the plan is to do 508,528 adults at a rate of 12,000 per day with the main mass vaccination centres at Villa Erba and LarioFiere.

From the end of March, the priority will be the 49,255 over-80's and the 60,000 chronically ill; then 94,759 65-79's.
google translate wrote:The first phase, which involves about 19 thousand health workers, doctors, care home residents and workers, will end by the 5th of March. By the 26th of March, phase 1 part 2 will aim at vaccinating those health categories not yet reached, from dentists to pharmacists, passing through military health professionals. It is therefore between the end of March and the beginning of April that the real mass vaccination campaign will open, doses permitting. Priority will be given according to decreasing age, but also according to pathologies. "While we wait, we must be ready and modulate the campaign based on resources and needs - said the health director Giuseppe Catanoso - imagining more channels to administer vaccines. General practitioners will mainly look at older citizens. Even hospitals will continue to vaccinate, perhaps thinking of the frail patients. Private and accredited clinics will also be involved. Care homes will organize vaccines for their guests, there will be home vaccinations for the bedridden. In addition, vaccination centers of different sizes will be organized to reach the rest of the population even during the summer ".

LarioFiere and Villa Erba will be the large hubs in the area, but there hypothetically also smaller centres, in the city as well as the province. Doctors will be able to use these places or vaccinate according to their wishes and possibilities in their clinics. The majority, almost all of them, have joined the programme. Over the months it is possible that the phases of the campaign will anyway be divided by age groups. At full capacity, taking into account that the two hubs could administer between 3 and 6 thousand daily doses, to which must be added general practitioners and hospitals, it should reach 12 thousand vaccinations per day. Obviously if there will be adequate deliveries of the drug.

A booking system is conceivable only for the phase that will start in late spring in the large vaccination centers, initially for the elderly and the sick they will most likely be referred by hospitals and general practitioners.

19 thousand doses so far

However, the exact quantities of vaccine arriving in Como for the month of February are not yet known to the local health service (the ATS).

From December to today, over 19,000 doses have been delivered to the Sant’Anna Hospital, but counting the need to carry out the second vaccination within 21 days, this means less than 10,000 have been vaccinated in total.

At the ATS, it was specified yesterday, in the first phase there are no cases of doses ending up being given to non-eligible subjects and even the vaccinated non-health workers, they clarified, are still part of the hospital system and contribute to the functioning of the health service.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:07 pm

Yay, 40 million doses!

By the end of March.

For the entire EU.

Enough to double-dose about 5% of the population.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Millennie Al » Mon Feb 01, 2021 3:29 am

shpalman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:07 pm
Yay, 40 million doses!
Where are these extra doses coming from? Is this another case of a stupid politician thinking you can negotiate with reality?
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Mon Feb 01, 2021 10:50 am

Maybe a similar place to where these up to 75 million extra doses of the Pfizer one are going to come from.

Unless they've just done the thing of pledging the amount they were going to deliver anyway before this two-week slowdown to increase capacity.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Mon Feb 01, 2021 7:41 pm

Italy has given more than 2 million doses - nearly 87% of its stocks - including 674,270 second doses.

But first doses to new subjects are going very slowly.

Some regions are trying to start to organize the >80's programme.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:36 pm

Planned dates for the beginning of the programme to vaccinate >80's in the population, according to the TV news I just saw:

Valle d'Aosta, Lazio: 8th February.
Liguria: 12th February.
Veneto: 15th February.
Piemonte: 21st February.
Lombardia: 24th February.

Toscana, Emilia-Romagna, Umbria, Puglia, Campagna: "mid February".
Friuli-Venezia-Giulia, Lombardia, Sicilia: "end of February".

(yes they listed Lombardy twice)

Any not listed will probably be March.

* - http://www.tg3.rai.it/ and look for the evening edition of the 2nd of February, about 20 minutes in.

Italy has given > 2 million doses, of which >700,000 are second doses. Almost all of them are Pfizer ones, Italy has only received 112,800 Moderna doses.

https://www.governo.it/it/cscovid19/report-vaccini/
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:39 pm

Somehow Lombardy expects to have everyone vaccinated "by June".

"Doses permitting".

Well yes, I expect to fly to the UK once I'm vaccinated. By flapping my arms. Gravity permitting.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:09 pm

shpalman wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:39 pm
jdc wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 7:45 pm
shpalman wrote:
Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:37 pm
Don't want it anyway.
I'll add you to the list. So far, I've got Shpalman, Belgium, France, Germany, Poland and Italy.
Switzerland isn't convinced yet either.

Well, this is mainly about ages >55-65 and I hope I'll be vaccinated before I arrive in that group.

But it's moot if AstraZeneca doesn't have any vaccines to deliver in continental Europe, and the EU is a long way from having even the >80's done (or has barely started) with Pfizer or Moderna doses.

Rollouts might have to be reorganized if the AZ one starts being available in large quantities very soon but national regulators still don't recommend it for the >55's.
Indeed, the plan for when the AstraZeneca vaccine arrives in Italy (starting "next Monday") is to give it to otherwise healthy <55-year-olds who enter into some sort of priority category, i.e. school teachers, military/police/emergency services, prison workers and inmates, and essential services (post, transport, that sort of thing).

13.5 million doses administered to 4 million people by the end of March (I don't know what sense that makes, but that's really what they said on the news). Maybe 20 million people vaccinated by the end of June.

The Pfizer and Moderna ones will be reserved for older people and those with pathologies which make them more vulnerable.

Italy is also interested in the Sputnik V one, of course it would need European approval first (might take a couple of months before AIFA can give its recommendation).

I'll be interested to see if university lecturers get counted as teachers for the purposes of this particular phase of the rollout.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:31 pm

The news is that we'll start to get the AstraZeneca vaccine here in Italy a couple of days early - 249,600 doses (i.e. a bit less than half a day's worth in UK terms) will arrive tomorrow.

The first vaccinations with it will be on Tuesday.

The news did say that that the "teachers" category included universities as well as schools.

The news also said that the 13.5 million doses would be for 7 million people (by the end of March)*, so that makes more sense than the 4 million they said yesterday.

(* - which is seven weeks away, so yeah, we need 2 million doses a week plz)

(ETA well, 1 million doses a week at first, and then it depends on what the AIFA recommends for the interval to the second dose)
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