Tier 4

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
AMS
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Re: Tier 4

Post by AMS » Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:56 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:18 pm
March is not an unreasonable guess. Depends if tier 4 restrictions are effective. I assume huge numbers of people will flout the rules from now till New Year but after that it might start to work.
It was mostly spreading via secondary schools, was it not? If so, what happens in schools in January is going to be the biggest factor. Luckily, Gavin W. is on the case.

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Martin Y
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Re: Tier 4

Post by Martin Y » Sat Dec 19, 2020 9:10 pm

lpm wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:51 pm
Not sure what you mean. Are you in Tier 4? If so you cannot have anyone from outside your household visit you at any time. If you are in Tier 2 or 3 then they can visit you on Christmas day only.
Ah. Yes. He's a student and would like to come home. His GF likewise, whose home is a couple of miles away.

They've had their two tests but he's still waiting for his 2nd test result.

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Tier 4

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Dec 19, 2020 9:15 pm

March would probably be a sensible time to lift restrictions.

So I expect mid-January is more likely.

It's tricky being the voice of pessimism in the family. So far I've been right about covid, but wrong about how soon brexit chaos would kick in (I didn't see the extra transition coming).
THINK BIG AND UPEND THE SYSTEM

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Tessa K
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Re: Tier 4

Post by Tessa K » Sat Dec 19, 2020 9:22 pm

I feel sorry for the foreign students I know at my gym. None of them can go home now. One was planning to fly home to Italy tomorrow.

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Fishnut
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Re: Tier 4

Post by Fishnut » Sat Dec 19, 2020 10:00 pm

plodder wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:07 pm
well, if anyone needs cheering up there’s always the comments on Conservative Home. Johnson is toast.
A depressing number of those comments think he's toast because he's overreacted, rather than reacted too slowly. Apparently because "We don't have bodies piled up in the streets" we don't need to worry, according to one commenter. Another says that "Our Black Death ancestors would be laughing from the heavens at this charade" because a mere "60k souls have perished because of Covid (if you believe that), which equates to 0.09% approx of the population." Another believes that "non-pensioner deaths are utterly negligible" so therefore we don't need to slow the pandemic. The callousness on display is staggering.

AMS
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Re: Tier 4

Post by AMS » Sat Dec 19, 2020 10:15 pm

I suspect the Tories' wider electoral base is significantly more concerned about the plight of pensioners than BTL commenters on party-affiliated websites.

egbert26
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Re: Tier 4

Post by egbert26 » Sat Dec 19, 2020 10:40 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 5:11 pm
Wait, you mean gyms were open even in tier 3?
Yup.
During lockdown 1.0, the gym was closed. It then reopened, but the pool, sauna and changing rooms were all closed. We were told to wipe down all equipment before and after use. There were no classes. They then phased in small classes and you had to book to use the pool. The changing rooms were out of bounds unless you had been swimming.

When we went from Tier 2 to 3 I was surprised that the only change was that classes were cancelled. When I rang up to ask about the changing rooms and showers* they said they 'advised against using them but they were open. We advise that people shower at home'.


* My boiler is broken.

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Tier 4

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Dec 19, 2020 10:43 pm

AMS wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 10:15 pm
I suspect the Tories' wider electoral base is significantly more concerned about the plight of pensioners than BTL commenters on party-affiliated websites.
It is weird that the Tories are so blasé about killing their main source of votes.
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Gfamily
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Re: Tier 4

Post by Gfamily » Sat Dec 19, 2020 10:46 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 10:43 pm
AMS wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 10:15 pm
I suspect the Tories' wider electoral base is significantly more concerned about the plight of pensioners than BTL commenters on party-affiliated websites.
It is weird that the Tories are so blasé about killing their main source of votes.
Political power comes and goes, but creaming money out of the system is something you can take with you.
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

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sTeamTraen
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Re: Tier 4

Post by sTeamTraen » Sat Dec 19, 2020 11:40 pm

Opti wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:16 pm
sTeamTraen wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 7:23 pm
Stuff about Spanish residency.
Luckily we have a lovely neighbour who just happens to be a well-connected high powered lawyer who did our TIE applications almost free. 5 weeks from start to picking up cards. In Spain that counts as a 'f.cking result!'. They just love bits of paper. The more the better.
Have you both got EU driving licences?
Yes, both French. Our residency stuff took ages to get the paperwork together because we have extremely non-standard medical insurance situations. We actually have better cover than any state or private policy, but it's not on a Standard Form Like What They Are Used To Seeing. Mine scraped through but then a second officer came to the desk and decided to reject Mrs S's, which was even more slightly different than mine. If my card hadn't already been printed I think he would have rejected mine too. So now we have to get Mrs S a completely unnecessary private policy for a year because some c.nt is too thick to accept our better coverage.
Something something hammer something something nail

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Re: Tier 4

Post by raven » Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:16 am

lpm wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:13 pm
On family zoom they asked when I thought Tier 4 would end. I said end of March. They got cross with me - they thought I'd say mid Jan, may be end Jan.

March seems right? Easter is 2 April, unlockdown for then. 2 months to regain control, maybe a touch of unlockedness in 3rd month?
I reckon we just move Christmas to July. It'll feel just like living in Hawai'i again. (On family zoom a week's holiday* together when things are back to normal -whenever that is- was mentioned, but then we realised everybody and his dog will do the same so there'll be a mad scramble for bookings. So who knows.)

Am a bit sad that son#1 won't make it home now, but more worried about various friends having to cancel their plans - some who'd planned 2 weeks isolation for the second or third time so they could see folks who were shielding and might have to call it off yet again.

But if we must, we must.

Wouldn't been much better for Johnson to extend lockdown, tell us Christmas would have to be postponed, and then if cases fell allowed very limited contact as a bonus, which would've made him look generous - rather than letting people make plans and then, as it will be felt, snatching Christmas away from them. MrRaven will be very disappointed if there's no Bojo as Scrooge or the Grinch on tomorrow's front pages.

*Not a holiday in Hawai'i. In a cottage somewhere here. Unless we win the lottery between now and then.

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Opti
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Re: Tier 4

Post by Opti » Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:05 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 11:40 pm

... but it's not on a Standard Form Like What They Are Used To Seeing. Mine scraped through but then a second officer came to the desk and decided to reject Mrs S's, which was even more slightly different than mine. If my card hadn't already been printed I think he would have rejected mine too. So now we have to get Mrs S a completely unnecessary private policy for a year because some c.nt is too thick to accept our better coverage.
Normal for Spain innit.

There are a great many things I absolutely love about living here, but add together the idea of decisions being made at the lowest possible level, the, errr, discretion that local officers enjoy and an absolute love of paperwork and you get ludicrous situations like yours.
Sorry to hear that.

Stay well.
He cannot be killed by conventional weapons. True. He and Mrs Opti are wicked cool.

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shpalman
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Re: Tier 4

Post by shpalman » Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:19 am

AMS wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:56 pm
Martin Y wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:18 pm
March is not an unreasonable guess. Depends if tier 4 restrictions are effective. I assume huge numbers of people will flout the rules from now till New Year but after that it might start to work.
It was mostly spreading via secondary schools, was it not? If so, what happens in schools in January is going to be the biggest factor. Luckily, Gavin W. is on the case.
Italy insists on getting schools open on the 7th of January, but the term at the Polimi doesn't start until February, so that will be a useful way to see which of those was responsible for the second wave in October after both started in mid September.
molto tricky

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: Tier 4

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:47 am

Fishnut wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 10:00 pm
plodder wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:07 pm
well, if anyone needs cheering up there’s always the comments on Conservative Home. Johnson is toast.
A depressing number of those comments think he's toast because he's overreacted, rather than reacted too slowly. Apparently because "We don't have bodies piled up in the streets" we don't need to worry, according to one commenter. Another says that "Our Black Death ancestors would be laughing from the heavens at this charade" because a mere "60k souls have perished because of Covid (if you believe that), which equates to 0.09% approx of the population." Another believes that "non-pensioner deaths are utterly negligible" so therefore we don't need to slow the pandemic. The callousness on display is staggering.
Tories? Callous? Surely not!
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Tessa K
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Re: Tier 4

Post by Tessa K » Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:36 am

And inevitably everyone rushed to get out of London last night. It's understandable on one level that people want to be with their families but they might as well be calling them Plague Trains, carrying the virus all over the country.

Image

bagpuss
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Re: Tier 4

Post by bagpuss » Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:41 am

After a whole day in Tier 3, we've been double promoted to Tier 4. So planned visit to my mum for a couple of hours on Boxing Day has been cancelled. Technically, I think we would be allowed as we're bubbled but as she's in Tier 3, is 85 and not yet had her jab, technicalities are to be ignored. In all honesty, I'm relieved, as I was already thinking it was a bad idea, but mum really wanted to see the bagkitten.

We were very lucky in that we managed to get our trip to see the light trail at Waddesdon in before the new regs hit and shut it down. We were already there when we heard so it wasn't a case of rushing to do things before the rules change, we just got lucky. Fortunately, nearly everyone (us included) was masked up, despite it being outdoors, we steered well clear of the Christmas market and the food stalls, and just enjoyed the lights.

I'm incredibly glad that I can still get out and run, and we live in a beautiful place where that is a joy. My heart goes out to people, though, for whom the new rules are going to be really tough. Tessa, egbert, and others, I hope you can find a way to keep things going through this.

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TAFKAsoveda
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Re: Tier 4

Post by TAFKAsoveda » Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:44 am

Tessa K wrote:
Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:36 am
And inevitably everyone rushed to get out of London last night. It's understandable on one level that people want to be with their families but they might as well be calling them Plague Trains, carrying the virus all over the country.

Image
Yup, just spoken to my father to say stay put. Quite apart from anything else we would feel so guilty about spreading things from tier 4 to tier 1- mind you the amount of people out in Hereford last night drinking and mingling made it look like we had no virus any more at all. :(

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science_fox
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Re: Tier 4

Post by science_fox » Sun Dec 20, 2020 2:46 pm

TAFKAsoveda wrote:
Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:44 am
Tessa K wrote:
Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:36 am
And inevitably everyone rushed to get out of London last night. It's understandable on one level that people want to be with their families but they might as well be calling them Plague Trains, carrying the virus all over the country.

Image
Yup, just spoken to my father to say stay put. Quite apart from anything else we would feel so guilty about spreading things from tier 4 to tier 1- mind you the amount of people out in Hereford last night drinking and mingling made it look like we had no virus any more at all. :(
My brother decided to do the if I leave before midnight I'll be fine thing, from a to-be-Tier4 to my aged parents in T2 (I think). He was advised by his 13y rold son that the virus doesn't know what time it is. But decided to leave anyway. Both sons remained at his ex-wife's rather than make the journey that had been planned for some time. Ex-wife was willing to allow sons to be with my brother for xmas as agreed, but only if he followed the rules and stayed at home. My parents will be disappointed, and increased in dislike for the ex-wife (whom I'm still friends with) already poor family relations made worse, risks increasing distance between him and sons. Unnecessary journey and increased contagion risk is made anyway, and no-one's happy. Lose-Lose. Families are sh.t sometimes.

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JQH
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Re: Tier 4

Post by JQH » Sun Dec 20, 2020 3:04 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:12 pm


Am I being too demanding to think Gov.uk should have had a list of tier 4 rules ready to go with Boris's speech, instead of continuing to claim there are only 3 tiers?

I don't think that goes far enough. Mrs H and I think Johnson should have deployed plods to the railway stations then announced the new rules come in RIGHT f.cking NOW. Would have avoided the plague trains spreading it around.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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JQH
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Re: Tier 4

Post by JQH » Sun Dec 20, 2020 3:11 pm

Tessa K wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:52 pm
lpm wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:51 pm
Martin Y wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:12 pm
Son and GF had to decide immediately whether to jump in the car and head here from Salford in case they weren't allowed tomorrow.

Am I being too demanding to think Gov.uk should have had a list of tier 4 rules ready to go with Boris's speech, instead of continuing to claim there are only 3 tiers?

Boris said you shouldn't travel into tier 4, various news media said you were advised not to. They were presumably all quoting some press release. It's no f.cking help in making a decision. I understand the science that drives the decisions isn't black and white, but the rules f.cking well are. If they can't tell us the rules , no wonder people don't know them.
Not sure what you mean. Are you in Tier 4? If so you cannot have anyone from outside your household visit you at any time. If you are in Tier 2 or 3 then they can visit you on Christmas day only.
Unless they are your support bubble.
Support bubble allows only one adult. We've had to cancel our plans to visit TAFKATH and the sprogs on the 25th.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

Fintan O'Toole

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Sciolus
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Re: Tier 4

Post by Sciolus » Sun Dec 20, 2020 4:18 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:12 pm
Son and GF had to decide immediately whether to jump in the car and head here from Salford in case they weren't allowed tomorrow.

Am I being too demanding to think Gov.uk should have had a list of tier 4 rules ready to go with Boris's speech, instead of continuing to claim there are only 3 tiers?

Boris said you shouldn't travel into tier 4, various news media said you were advised not to. They were presumably all quoting some press release. It's no f.cking help in making a decision. I understand the science that drives the decisions isn't black and white, but the rules f.cking well are. If they can't tell us the rules , no wonder people don't know them.
Index of covid-related legislation. Doesn't mention the Tier 4 stuff though so it's out of date already.

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Re: Tier 4

Post by shpalman » Sun Dec 20, 2020 5:42 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:47 am
Fishnut wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 10:00 pm
plodder wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:07 pm
well, if anyone needs cheering up there’s always the comments on Conservative Home. Johnson is toast.
A depressing number of those comments think he's toast because he's overreacted, rather than reacted too slowly. Apparently because "We don't have bodies piled up in the streets" we don't need to worry, according to one commenter. Another says that "Our Black Death ancestors would be laughing from the heavens at this charade" because a mere "60k souls have perished because of Covid (if you believe that), which equates to 0.09% approx of the population." Another believes that "non-pensioner deaths are utterly negligible" so therefore we don't need to slow the pandemic. The callousness on display is staggering.
Tories? Callous? Surely not!
it's suggested in a link which will open in your browser on clicking on these words here that he "reacted too slowly" specifically to avoid having to face the gammony c.nts on his own backbenches.
Sir Charles Walker in that link which I just mentioned in earlier words written in this post wrote:“I suspect the government knew they were going to cancel Christmas on Wednesday and Thursday when they were still telling the House of Commons they planned to press ahead,” he told BBC Radio 4’s The World This Weekend.”
molto tricky

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Re: Tier 4

Post by Hunting Dog » Sun Dec 20, 2020 5:42 pm

science_fox wrote:
Sun Dec 20, 2020 2:46 pm
My brother decided to do the if I leave before midnight I'll be fine thing, from a to-be-Tier4 to my aged parents in T2 (I think). He was advised by his 13y rold son that the virus doesn't know what time it is. But decided to leave anyway.
Sister-in-law in tier4 was contemplating doing a long-distance dash like that to visit another sister-in-law (65+) and that SIL's complete family including grandchildren in tier2, she was only put off from doing it because she couldn't re-arrange a work appointment she's got this week... no thoughts about it maybe not being a good idea to go mix with them as she was in a higher tier and had been working in various offices :roll:

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Re: Tier 4

Post by Trinucleus » Sun Dec 20, 2020 6:47 pm

Aside from Christmas, the only difference with Tier 4 seems to be non essential shops closing. Is that really going to make such a difference?

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bob sterman
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Re: Tier 4

Post by bob sterman » Sun Dec 20, 2020 7:24 pm

Trinucleus wrote:
Sun Dec 20, 2020 6:47 pm
Aside from Christmas, the only difference with Tier 4 seems to be non essential shops closing. Is that really going to make such a difference?
My feeling is - given the recent surge in transmission - a certain amount of new cases are "baked in" at this stage.

In the UK we have no system or provision for isolating new cases from their household contacts (unless they are so severely ill they meet the high threshold for hospitalization).

So for everybody who picked up the virus in the past week doing some Christmas shopping or boozing - a proportion of their households will inevitably become infected too over the next week or so.

Unless you isolate index cases in each family network - lockdown effects won't become apparent until the infection has worked its way through each household.

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