New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

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shpalman
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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by shpalman » Fri Feb 12, 2021 6:05 pm

molto tricky

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by shpalman » Fri Feb 12, 2021 6:39 pm

The local news says it's more like 30% here in Lombardy. (R is only just less than 1 here, but at a look at the numbers suggests that this week cases stopped going down and have started to go up.)
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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:44 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:08 pm
UK variant in Denmark over the last seven weeks, per cent of tests:
0.2%
0.4%
0.8%
2.1%
2.4%
3.9%
7%

https://covid19genomics.dk/statistics
Now up to 27%

https://covid19genomics.dk/statistics

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:57 pm

Updated NERVTAG report on the variant of concern: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... 210211.pdf

More evidence that it’s more lethal, and is associated with more serious illness.

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by shpalman » Sun Feb 14, 2021 6:17 pm

In Abruzzo the variant is now >50% of cases

Associated with a recent outbreak amongst children.
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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Feb 14, 2021 8:55 pm

Two Recovered Israeli COVID Patients Reinfected With South African Strain
Health Ministry says 44 cases of the COVID strain have been found in Israel, and that patients had been in contact with 124 people
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/two ... -1.9538280

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by shpalman » Mon Feb 15, 2021 7:00 pm

Ricciardi, the one who'd rather just lock everything down, says that the variant arrived in Europe via Swiss ski resorts.

https://www.espansionetv.it/2021/02/15/ ... -svizzera/

Hence the unpopular decision taken at the last moment yesterday to keep the skilifts closed here for another few weeks instead of opening them today.
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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by shpalman » Mon Feb 15, 2021 7:58 pm

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:54 pm


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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by shpalman » Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:57 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:54 pm
shpalman wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 7:58 pm
B.1.525
And here: https://cov-lineages.org/global_report_B.1.525.html
Sorry I put the dots in the wrong place because those morons at the Guardian feel like their style manual is more important than technical accuracy.
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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:37 pm

Coronavirus Variants: Down to the Details
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/a ... s-variants

Reduced neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant by convalescent and vaccine sera
https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S009 ... -1?rss=yes

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:29 pm

Genomic epidemiology identifies emergence and rapid transmission of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 in the United States
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21251159v1

UK variant predicted to be 50% of US cases be the end of March

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by shpalman » Sun Feb 21, 2021 5:38 pm

Densely sampled viral trajectories suggest longer duration of acute infection with B.1.1.7 variant relative to non-B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2
https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/37366884
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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by bob sterman » Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:23 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 5:38 pm
Densely sampled viral trajectories suggest longer duration of acute infection with B.1.1.7 variant relative to non-B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2
https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/37366884
Interesting...
For individuals infected with B.1.1.7, the mean duration of the proliferation phase was 5.3 days (90% credible interval [2.7, 7.8]), the mean duration of the clearance phase was 8.0 days [6.1, 9.9], and the mean overall duration of infection (proliferation plus clearance) was 13.3 days [10.1, 16.5]. These compare to a mean proliferation phase of 2.0 days [0.7, 3.3], a mean clearance phase of 6.2 days [5.1, 7.1], and a mean duration of infection of 8.2 days [6.5, 9.7] for non-B.1.1.7 virus
Mean duration of infection of 13.3 days vs 8.2 days for the old type.

Rather unfortunate that on December 14th the UK reduced its self-isolation period from 14 to 10 days.

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:31 pm

UK summary

Variants of concern or under investigation: data up to 24 February 2021

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... cases-data

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:06 pm

UK variant accounts for 'about half' of France's Covid-19 cases, PM says
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2021 ... es-pm-says

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:08 pm

Massive Google-Funded COVID Database Will Track Variants and Immunity
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00490-5

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Feb 27, 2021 6:07 pm

Symptomatic reinfection of SARS-CoV-2 with spike protein variant N440K associated with immune escape
https://osf.io/7gk69/

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Feb 27, 2021 6:11 pm

SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 Spike variants bind human ACE2 with increased affinity
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 2.432359v1

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by shpalman » Sun Feb 28, 2021 6:06 pm

molto tricky

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by jimbob » Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:10 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:40 pm
Another report of the virus evolving during a long term infection of one person. This time for 154 days: https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2021/02 ... s-variants
From an evolutionary perspective this is what you'd expect. The virus and what was left of the patient's immune system were in near-equilibrium so there would be a strong selective pressure for mutations that tilted the balance.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by shpalman » Mon Mar 01, 2021 8:08 pm

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by shpalman » Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:57 pm

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by shpalman » Tue Mar 02, 2021 8:06 pm

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:30 pm

Negligible impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants on CD4+ and CD8+ T cell reactivity in COVID-19 exposed donors and vaccinees.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 7.433180v1

Summary: https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/sta ... 69090?s=21

tl;dr T cells are still recognising variants

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