New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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Woodchopper
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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:48 pm

Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/ ... g3055.full

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:57 pm

Resistance of SARS-CoV-2 variants to neutralization by monoclonal and serum-derived polyclonal antibodies
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01294-w

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Mar 06, 2021 10:25 am

Study from Denmark:

Infection with lineage B.1.1.7 was associated with an increased risk of hospitalisation compared with other lineages. This finding may have serious public health impact in countries with spread of B.1.1.7 and can support hospital preparedness and modelling of projected impact of the epidemic.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=3792894

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:22 pm

Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7 in England
The B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) is increasing in prevalence across Europe. Accurate estimation of disease severity associated with this VOC is critical for pandemic planning. We found increased risk of death for VOC compared with non-VOC cases in England (HR: 1.67 (95% CI: 1.34 - 2.09; P<.0001). Absolute risk of death by 28-days increased with age and comorbidities. VOC has potential to spread faster with higher mortality than the pandemic to date.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21252528v1

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:30 pm

Quantification of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 in Switzerland
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21252520v1

Pretty much the same as in Britain

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Mar 20, 2021 7:01 pm


The coronavirus variant first discovered in the United Kingdom may account for up to 30% of new COVID infections across the U.S., NIAID Director Anthony Fauci said during a White House briefing on the virus Friday.
https://www.axios.com/fauci-uk-variant- ... ae509.html

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Mar 20, 2021 7:14 pm


Mutations at both the receptor-binding domain (RBD) and the amino (N)-terminal domain (NTD) of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S) glycoprotein can alter its antigenicity and promote immune escape. We identified that SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in Brazil with mutations of concern in the RBD independently acquired convergent deletions and insertions in the NTD of the S protein, which altered the NTD antigenic-supersite and other predicted epitopes at this region. These findings support that the ongoing widespread transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil is generating new viral lineages that might be more resistant to neutralization than parental variants of concern.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21253946v1

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Re: New Variant Covid-19 VUI 202012/01

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Apr 04, 2021 8:48 am


Increased mortality in community-tested cases of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7


SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, a variant first detected in the UK in September 20201, has spread to multiple countries worldwide. Several studies have established that B.1.1.7 is more transmissible than preexisting variants, but have not identified whether it leads to any change in disease severity2. Here we analyse a dataset linking 2,245,263 positive SARS-CoV-2 community tests and 17,452 COVID-19 deaths in England from 1 September 2020 to 14 February 2021. For 1,146,534 (51%) of these tests, the presence or absence of B.1.1.7 can be identified because of mutations in this lineage preventing PCR amplification of the spike gene target (S gene target failure, SGTF1). Based on 4,945 deaths with known SGTF status, we estimate that the hazard of death associated with SGTF is 55% (95% CI 39–72%) higher after adjustment for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, care home residence, local authority of residence and test date. This corresponds to the absolute risk of death for a 55–69-year-old male increasing from 0.6% to 0.9% (95% CI 0.8–1.0%) within 28 days after a positive test in the community. Correcting for misclassification of SGTF and missingness in SGTF status, we estimate a 61% (42–82%) higher hazard of death associated with B.1.1.7. Our analysis suggests that B.1.1.7 is not only more transmissible than preexisting SARS-CoV-2 variants, but may also cause more severe illness.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03426-1

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