Vaccine rollout in Spain

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Martin_B
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by Martin_B » Wed Jul 28, 2021 8:13 am

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jul 28, 2021 1:50 am
20 million minus 14 million kids =6 million adults x.3% = 18 000 plus many children.

Does anyone have any figures for how many fatalities there have been in this current wave, so far?
Wiki chart

Cases are running at about 10,000 a day, deaths at about 10 a day. So I don't think the fatality risk is 1% or even 0.3%. More like 0.1%.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by lpm » Wed Jul 28, 2021 8:24 am

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jul 28, 2021 1:50 am
20 million minus 14 million kids =6 million adults x.3% = 18 000 plus many children.

Does anyone have any figures for how many fatalities there have been in this current wave, so far?
In the UK, since 24 May (the start of the third wave of cases) there have been 1,605 official Covid deaths.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by Herainestold » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:01 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Jul 28, 2021 8:24 am
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jul 28, 2021 1:50 am
20 million minus 14 million kids =6 million adults x.3% = 18 000 plus many children.

Does anyone have any figures for how many fatalities there have been in this current wave, so far?
In the UK, since 24 May (the start of the third wave of cases) there have been 1,605 official Covid deaths.
Thanks. That is about 25 per day. Extrapolated to the end of the year it means another 4000 deaths. Much less than the SAGE estimates but we still have the autumn wave to contend with.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by lpm » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:06 pm

I'm pretty sure Johnson & Co budgeted to kill about 10,000 people from this unlocking. They'll get away with fewer across the summer and kill them in autumn instead.

It's not a huge number relative to flu etc and it's mostly the very old. Nobody will care.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by Herainestold » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:45 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:06 pm
I'm pretty sure Johnson & Co budgeted to kill about 10,000 people from this unlocking. They'll get away with fewer across the summer and kill them in autumn instead.

It's not a huge number relative to flu etc and it's mostly the very old. Nobody will care.
I care. It could all be prevented by a proper lockdown, like in Australia. But we've been through all this before.
I just wonder about the magnitude of the autumn wave and whether we will miss another Christmas.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by Martin_B » Wed Jul 28, 2021 11:56 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:45 pm
lpm wrote:
Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:06 pm
I'm pretty sure Johnson & Co budgeted to kill about 10,000 people from this unlocking. They'll get away with fewer across the summer and kill them in autumn instead.

It's not a huge number relative to flu etc and it's mostly the very old. Nobody will care.
I care. It could all be prevented by a proper lockdown, like in Australia. But we've been through all this before.
I just wonder about the magnitude of the autumn wave and whether we will miss another Christmas.
Europe could have never locked down like Australia or New Zealand. Not even the UK or Ireland could have managed it - there's too much integration with Europe, too many open travel routes.
Australia is struggling to lock down like Australia (mainly due to NSW's right wing government not imposing a proper lockdown - 4 weeks into their 'lockdown' and cases are still rising!).
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by sTeamTraen » Sat Aug 07, 2021 5:33 pm

As of yesterday evening, Spain is at 70% of the entire population with at least one vaccine dose and 60% with a full course. Previously to get a % of adults I would have recommended multiplying those numbers by 1.2 as I think about 17% of the population is under 18, giving 84% and 72%, but we've been vaccinating 12-17 year olds for a couple of weeks, so maybe a slightly smaller multiplier is in order.

From this week Wednesday (4 August), pregnant women have been able to show up without an appointment to get vaccinated here in Mallorca. From 11 August this is being extended to any resident, including people without papers (it will be interesting to see how many undocumented migrants trust the system enough to do this). This will hopefully help people with full residence permits who have not been able to register because of burueacratic complexity. It is unclear, though, how people who are not "in the computer right" will get vaccination certificates, in a system that is totally predicated on national ID numbers.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by Opti » Sat Aug 07, 2021 6:31 pm

Indeed. We now have walk-in mobile vaccination units travelling round the local towns offering 'no questions asked' jabs.
As you point out, it's incredibly unlikely that undocumented people will be able to access a bit of paper clearing them, but the take up is huge.
It's good to see enthusiasm for getting vaxxed.
I know for certain that the Senegalese beach vendors round here (they have a very slurry name amongst many Brits here, but they are ace) have all been fully jabbed.
Locals are still very conscious of NPI measures.
It's just the f.cking tourists.
Time for a big fat one.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by sTeamTraen » Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:21 am

Opti wrote:
Sat Aug 07, 2021 6:31 pm
Indeed. We now have walk-in mobile vaccination units travelling round the local towns offering 'no questions asked' jabs.
As you point out, it's incredibly unlikely that undocumented people will be able to access a bit of paper clearing them, but the take up is huge.
I wonder how this works (in all countries with no-Qs-asked vaccinations) with the second dose? Do they give everyone Janssen, or do they hope they'll meet up again in 4 weeks?
Opti wrote:
Sat Aug 07, 2021 6:31 pm
Locals are still very conscious of NPI measures.
It's just the f.cking tourists.
Mrs sTeamTraen and I went to a couple of hotels last week, one night in each of two. The first night was in a typical resort hotel with 70% Brits. I have to say that people were pretty good about mask discipline when indoors.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by Opti » Thu Sep 02, 2021 4:23 pm

Spain has now reached 70% of the population fully vaccinated.
Time for a big fat one.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Sep 03, 2021 12:04 am

Opti wrote:
Thu Sep 02, 2021 4:23 pm
Spain has now reached 70% of the population fully vaccinated.
Pffft, eat our dust!

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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by Herainestold » Fri Sep 03, 2021 12:40 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 12:04 am
Opti wrote:
Thu Sep 02, 2021 4:23 pm
Spain has now reached 70% of the population fully vaccinated.
Pffft, eat our dust!

Portugal caralho! Olivença é nossa!!
Very impressive, Portugal!
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by shpalman » Fri Sep 03, 2021 8:19 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 12:04 am
Opti wrote:
Thu Sep 02, 2021 4:23 pm
Spain has now reached 70% of the population fully vaccinated.
Pffft, eat our dust!

Portugal caralho! Olivença é nossa!!
Italy has fully vaccinated 70.88% of the 12-and-overs but that's still only 61% of the total population. In terms of first doses we've overtaken the UK.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by sTeamTraen » Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:47 am

One of our local papers is reporting that 19,000 people out of 1.2 million in the Balearic Islands have actively refused to be vaccinated when they were called to be offered an appointment. (One of the claimed reasons for Spain's high take-up rate has been that most people got a phone call or SMS saying "Your vaccine is next Tuesday at 10am", which presumably takes some of the CBA factor out of it for a proportion of people.)

The article is behind a paywall, so I don't know what the denominator is for the 19,000. But if only half of the population have been offered the vaccine directly in this way, that would represents only 3% of active refusers.

Of course, there will also be a percentage of people who just don't turn up; currently we are at about 72% with one dose, which is probably ~87% of adults and ~80% of those aged 12+, and there are quite a few people here who aren't automatically in the healthcare system. But I still think this number of active refusers is less bad than it could have been.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Sep 05, 2021 2:17 pm

It will presumably also include people who were away, unavailable, on holiday or working abroad on the day chosen by the health service.

I had to "actively refuse" a slot because I was working in Iceland - at least here you can only say yes or no, rather than reschedule. (It was easy to sort out once I got back, and I'm now fully dosed).

About 3% of people being on holiday at a given moment in the summer doesn't seem outlandish, especially on an island with lots of expats.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by Opti » Sun Sep 05, 2021 2:53 pm

IME, in this bit of Spain, most 'refuseniks' are immigrants from the UK and E.European countries. Oh, and a fair number of Nordic immigrants.
At least they're the most vocal.
Locals are pretty keen to get vaxxed.
Time for a big fat one.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by sTeamTraen » Mon Sep 06, 2021 6:54 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Sep 05, 2021 2:17 pm
It will presumably also include people who were away, unavailable, on holiday or working abroad on the day chosen by the health service.
The article is behind a paywall, but the text that I can read strongly suggests that these are people who actively said "No, I do not want no stinking vaccine, do not call again". The ones who were out or CBA will have been counted separately.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by basementer » Thu Sep 09, 2021 6:11 am

I see that Spain has sold NZ a quarter of a million shots, which will help us mitigate our f.ckup of being way too late to start the mass vaccination programme. Thank you Spain.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by shpalman » Wed Sep 22, 2021 7:21 am

What's going on with Spain's positive rate?

The case rate seems to be behaving itself so I assume it's some sort of artefact.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by Opti » Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:07 am

shpalman wrote:
Wed Sep 22, 2021 7:21 am
What's going on with Spain's positive rate?

The case rate seems to be behaving itself so I assume it's some sort of artefact.
That is strange. Our local positive rate is down to 25/100,000 people. It's fallen dramatically over the last 2 weeks.
Time for a big fat one.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by sTeamTraen » Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:34 pm

Opti wrote:
Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:07 am
That is strange. Our local positive rate is down to 25/100,000 people. It's fallen dramatically over the last 2 weeks.
I think shpalman means the percentage of tests that are positive. I have seen this called "the positivity ratio", which always sets my teeth on edge. ;)
shpalman wrote:
Wed Sep 22, 2021 7:21 am
What's going on with Spain's positive rate?

The case rate seems to be behaving itself so I assume it's some sort of artefact.
What's the problem? It's been dropping steadily, in line with cases, since mid-July.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by shpalman » Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:10 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:34 pm
Opti wrote:
Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:07 am
That is strange. Our local positive rate is down to 25/100,000 people. It's fallen dramatically over the last 2 weeks.
I think shpalman means the percentage of tests that are positive. I have seen this called "the positivity ratio", which always sets my teeth on edge. ;)
shpalman wrote:
Wed Sep 22, 2021 7:21 am
What's going on with Spain's positive rate?

The case rate seems to be behaving itself so I assume it's some sort of artefact.
What's the problem? It's been dropping steadily, in line with cases, since mid-July.
Ok they've corrected it. It was showing as weirdly spiking up to a very high number when I posted that. Maybe someone missed off the last digit in the number of tests figure.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by sTeamTraen » Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:48 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:10 pm
Ok they've corrected it. It was showing as weirdly spiking up to a very high number when I posted that. Maybe someone missed off the last digit in the number of tests figure.
You should of taken a screenshot to prove that it's all a conspiracy.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:27 am

I saw it. There was a huge spike at the last point.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Spain

Post by shpalman » Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:01 am

OWID seems to have dealt with it by not including positivity rate data past the 16th of September, unless of course your national dashboard doesn't update that every day so that's all the data they have.
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